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Mark Kelly speaks at New York's City Hall with his wife, former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, in 2016. Kelly is a strong Democratic candidate for an Arizona Senate seat this year. (Photo by Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

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The impeachment trial in the US Senate is clearly a constitutional and moral moment of truth. It is also an excellent opportunity to advance the nitty-gritty work that will defeat vulnerable incumbent Republican senators and allow Democrats to recapture control of that critical chamber when voters head to the polls this November. It is easy for progressives to get excited about compelling candidatespeople with impressive life stories and hard-hitting adsand then shower resources on those candidates. And, yes, charisma and well-crafted ads are nice. But as Virginia Democrats success last fall demonstrates, robust, statewide voter mobilization operations are better.Ad Policy

Republicans currently hold 53 of the Senates 100 seats; Democrats will need a minimum net gain of three seats and a new, Democratic vice president to flip partisan control of the body. Of the 23 Republican-controlled Senate seats up for election this year, there are currently 13 seats in 12 states that offer plausible prospects for Democrats to defeat their Republican opponent.

Factoring in four key criteriapast electoral results, demographic developments, existing civic engagement infrastructure, and incumbent favorability ratingsI have given all 12 states with a Republican incumbent (and one state, Alabama, with a vulnerable Democrat) a score that illustrates their respective winnability.

(Read a complete description of the methodology and underlying data incorporated in the ratings here.)

The states where Democrats are most likely to flip a Senate seat are those where theyve fared well in recent statewide elections, and where there is a large pool of potential Democratic voters who could be brought into the electorate to improve the overall odds of victory.

Kyrsten Sinema won the Arizona US Senate race in 2018the first Democrat to win an open seat in that state since 1976. Conventional wisdom attributes Sinemas success to popularity with moderate voters, generally code for white swing voters; but she actually lost the white vote to her opponent. While her white vote share was admittedly higher than many Democrats receive, it was her 70 percent of the Latino vote that propelled her to victory, by just 56,000 votes. And there could be a whole lot more where that came from: More than 600,000 eligible Latinos did not vote in 2018.

Burgeoning Latino civic engagement infrastructure is the progressive secret weapon in Arizona. Ever since the states government passed the 2010 anti-immigrant legislation often referred to as the show me your papers law, a strong, sustained and effective cohort of organizations and leaders have worked together to build political power and darken the complexion of the Arizona electorate. Republican Martha McSally is the incumbent up for reelection this fall; progressive solidarity, combined with the strong fundraising of likely Democratic nominee Mark Kellyformer astronaut, current gun control activist, and husband of former representative Gabby Giffordsmakes this one of the most winnable Senate seats in the country.Current Issue

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After two decades of sustained investment in a strong progressive infrastructure of organizations and leaders in Coloradoa period during which the states population has also become increasingly diverseDemocrats have won all four statewide elections since 2016. Cory Gardner, the current incumbent Republican senator, won this seat in 2014 by the narrow margin of 40,000 votes. (He was helped along by the fact that 300,000 fewer Democratic voters turned out than had voted in 2008s presidential election.) Two Democrats, former governor John Hickenlooper and former speaker of the state House Andrew Romanoff, will face off in Colorados June primary; whoever prevails should be the favorite to win the seat in a high-turnout presidential election year.

The silver lining of Georgias bitterly disappointing gubernatorial election in 2018? Stacey Abramss historic bid helped to build an electoral infrastructure that resulted in record Democratic voter turnout. That operation gives a massive head start to Democrats looking to win the state in 2020, at both the Senate and presidential levels. (A few months ago, Abrams even created a document in which she shares her prescription for victory.) Georgia has two Senate seats on the ballot in November. The field of potential Senate candidates is still unsettled: It includes Jon Ossoff, who previously ran for US Congress; Sarah Riggs Amico, a former candidate for Georgia lieutenant governor; and Teresa Tomlinson, who was the first female mayor of Columbus, Georgia. All are competing for the seat currently held by David Perdue. (Theres a special election planned for the second seat as well, but theres been little clarity yet about that race.) Regardless of who the ultimate candidates are, Georgia should be all-hands-on-deck for progressives nationallyespecially because the state is also within reach of any Democratic presidential nominee, even more so if Abrams were on the ticket to be vice president. If the Democrats can mobilize the Abrams coalition, it will lift all boats.

Texas, once seen as a solidly red state, now has the greatest progressive electoral potential of any state in the country. Its enormous number of eligible, non-voting people of color absolutely dwarfs the shrinking margin of difference in statewide elections. In 2018, Beto ORourke lost his US Senate bid by just 215,000 votes, despite the fact that 5.5 million people of color didnt cast ballots.

Similar to what weve seen in Virginia, groups such as the Texas Organizing Project have helped make the difference in mayoral elections in Houston and San Antonio in recent years, with a steady course of methodical civic engagement work. Texass very competitive Democratic primary is fast approaching, on March 3, or Super Tuesday; that contest is among the first of the battleground Senate races. While the Democratic senatorial Campaign Committee has sought to tip the scales in favor of M.J. Hegarwhose military background, its assumed, will help attract white votersthere are multiple candidates of color in the race. The person with the clearest and most logical path to defeating Republican John Cornyn is Cristina Tzintzn Ramirez. She comes from an organizing background, has deep ties to Latino communities across the state, and is the kind of inspiring and progressive candidate who can capture the imagination of the largeand still essentially untappedelectorate that holds the key to flipping Texas. (Full disclosure: I have contributed to Tzintzn Ramirezs campaign, and she is a guest on the latest episode of my podcast, Democracy in Color.)Related Article

There are actually just a handful of states where large numbers of voters regularly switch their partisan preferences. Such states are harder and more expensive to win; at worst, they can be bottomless money pits, where political ads may or may not be wasted. (Bringing to mind the old adage: Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I dont know which half.) But with a president as divisive, unqualified, and destructive as the one we have now, the prospect of Democrats prevailing in swing states could be higher than usual.

Many people forget that Barack Obama managed to win North Carolina in 2008, if only by a tiny margin. And although Trump won the state in 2016, Democrat Roy Cooper prevailed in the gubernatorial contest that year. In a state with a meaningful number of college-educated whites, particularly around the so-called Research Triangle of Chapel Hill, Durham, and Raleigh, likely Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham may have appeal, but hell need to work hard to inspire the African Americans who make up 22 percent of the states population. Much of the burden of increasing African American voter turnouta group that overwhelmingly votes Democraticwill fall to progressive groups and the Democratic presidential ticket (further accentuating the importance of a ticket that can inspire voters of color).

Maine Republican Susan Collins and her pseudo-moderate rhetoric have enraged progressives for yearsmost notably during the fight over Brett Kavanaughs Supreme Court confirmation, where she provided critical cover for the Republicans patriarchal power play. She could be vulnerable this year. Maine is more Democratic than many people realize; the state voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections. Collins now faces a formidable Democratic opponent in Sara Gideon, the well-funded speaker of the Maine House of Representatives and daughter of an Indian immigrant. Furthermore, Collinss favorability numbers are underwater, as 10 percent more Maine residents view her unfavorably than favorably.

Iowa, of course, is among the swingiest swing states in the country, having flipped from backing Obama by substantial margins in 2008 to a Trump blowout in 2016. (Pat Rynard, who runs the political news site Iowa Starting Line discussed this phenomenon on my podcast in October, observing that candidates who have run on a change-type message have done well in the state.) In that lightand taking note of incumbent Republican Joni Ernsts unfavorable polling numbersit is realistic to try to flip this seat. A three-way Democratic primary in June will determine the partys nominee. Many party leaders have high hopes for Theresa Greenfield, who is backed by Emilys List and other progressive groups.

There is another cohort of states where seats are up for election this yearones that would normally be out of reach, just by virtue of their paucity of Democratic voters. But in a high-turnout year when many white voters are alarmed by the Republican standard-bearer, things could conceivably break just right for Democrats. Think of the perfect storm that swept through Alabama in 2017, when Republicans nominated accused child-molester Roy Moore for the Senate, and Democrat Doug Jones rode a robust black voter turnout operation to victory.

Jones is up for reelection this year, and he faces daunting odds in a state that Trump won by nearly 28 points. (Joness own 2017 win came in a contest with much lower voter turnout.) But in addition to the possibility of Joness being reelected, the other states where an Alabama Miracle could conceivably occur are Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kentucky. Mississippi and South Carolina are similar to Alabama, in that they have large African American populations; Kentucky is worth considering, too, since Democrat Andy Beshear squeaked to victory in the governor race last year, and incumbent Mitch McConnells steadfast support for Trumps divisive agenda has made him one of the least popular senators in the country.

Montana is a true iconoclast, where there is frequent ticket splitting of perplexing proportions. In 2016, Trump won Montana by 20 points, even while Democrat Steve Bullock prevailed in the gubernatorial contest. The popular Bullockwho briefly entered the Democratic presidential primary last year, before pulling out in Decemberhas thus far resisted entreaties to run for Senate. But should he do so, he would be a strong favorite to flip that seat.

The Senate impeachment trial will force all incumbent senators to openly condemn or condone Trumps behavior. This could draw a clear connection between the actions of this president and the responsibility of his congressional enablers. If Democrats can make sure that voters in the most winnable states understand the role that their incumbent GOP senators have played in this havoc, it could accelerate their efforts to take back control of the Senate and this country.

Taking control of the Senate will require success on two fronts: increasing turnout of voters of color, and cementing support among those suburban white voters who gave Trump a chance in 2016, but shifted their support to Democrats in the 2018 midterms. Most people of color understand clearly the danger and destruction presented by this administration, but the Senate trial offers an excellent opportunity to affirm the increasing alarm felt by those suburban white voters too. Once the evidence is presented, every senator will have to go on the record about whether they support Trumps unconstitutional corruption. Come November, there are at least 12 incumbent Republicans who can, and should, pay the political price for their complicity in endangering and undermining our democracy.

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12 States Where Democrats Could Flip the Senate - The Nation

Driving the news: Democratic contenders responded with visceral dislike to mentions of Facebook during The New York Times' recent on-camera endorsement process.

Between the lines: Tech issues have driven more campaign debate during this Democratic primary season than in previous cycles.

Be smart: Criticism of Big Tech is coming from both parties. But Republicans and conservatives have historically opposed regulating industry and breaking up monopolies, while for Democrats, it's home base.

The big picture: Facebook has leaned on its conservative connections under the Trump administration, while its relationship with Democrats has become more hostile.

Yes, but: Facebook's Silicon Valley-based workforce almost certainly leans liberal, and its chief operating officer, Sheryl Sandberg, is a vocal Democrat.

Our thought bubble: Past presidents have shied away from criticizing or targeting specific U.S. firms, but Trump has erased that norm.

The bottom line: Big companies of a sufficient size generally avoid becoming associated with a political party because they want to attract customers across the political spectrum and they want to profit under presidents of either party.

Go deeper:

Read this article:
Facebook is worried about Democrats winning the presidential election - Axios

It's a week until the Iowa caucuses. The Democratic primary field will soon narrow to just 30 or so candidates. They've spent hours at Democratic debates most of us didn't watch talking about their health care policies or their thrilling plans to do absolutely nothing, but politely. Before we start to say goodbye, let's learn a little bit about them as people who occasionally get horny.

The New York Times asked some of the remaining Democratic candidates to give voters a peek into their mental Cinemax and reveal their celebrity crushes. I think the answers will thrill you. They may shock you. They might even horrify you. But you absolutely shouldn't vote until you've read further.

First up is clear winner Amy Klobuchar, who chose Prince. It's not just that the senator and the music legend are both from Minnesota. It's simply the only correct answer. She responded without hesitation, so it's obvious she's had sex to his music. I'm too polite to speculate as to which Prince album was playing while Klobuchar's daughter was conceived. All I'll say is that if you fuck in the vicinity of Prince's music someone's getting pregnant. That's science.

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Elizabeth Warren came in a strong second with the Rock. She even still calls him the Rock. "Dwayne Johnson" can make all the versions of The Fast and the Furious and Jumanji that moviegoers can stomach. He can even churn out some more family-friendly crap like Tooth Fairy. Warren's only interested in what the Rock is cooking while strutting his stuff in tight spandex.

For a moment while Warren was giving her answer, it seemed as if she forgot the cameras were there, closed her eyes, and sampled the candy. Don't leave our girl in a room alone with the Rock, especially if Klobuchar loaned her a copy of Diamonds and Pearls. Gett off!

My new soul brother, Mike Bloomberg, might not have had the best answer but at least it was the weirdest. He selected both Laura Dern and William H. Macy. He's a billionaire. He can cast whoever he wants in his orgies. Tom Steyer went with the safer but still dope choice of Alicia Keys. The lady can sing, and she's fine. I almost met Keys in 2001, and if I had, absolutely nothing would've happened. That's what you're supposed to say if you're married and want to remain so. That's the path Andrew Yang took.

Aww, that's sweet. But let's cut the crap. Yang is only a few months younger than I am, so I'll just assume his celebrity crush is Isabella Rossellini. She haunted teenage SER's dreams.

http://www.youtube.com

Pete Buttigieg was the lone spoilsport interviewed. He claimed his celebrity crush was "not for The New York Times to know about." Teen Vogue covers celebrity crushes. This is the most innocuous ice breaker question imaginable. Is he afraid voters will think he lacks gravitas if he admits he digs Brad Pitt? Anyone who saw Fight Club wants to fuck Brad Pitt. Come on in! The water's fine. Bloomberg offered us wacky threesome scenarios, and Warren had an on-camera orgasm. Buttigieg's a Rhodes scholar. We think he can safely answer one random question without killing his campaign.

OK, well, maybe saying nothing was the wiser move.

[The New York Times]

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Democrats Tell New York Times Which Celebrity They Most Want To Bang - Wonkette

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US Democrats have ruled out a "witness swap" with Republicans in President Donald Trump's impeachment trial.

Lawmakers who are seeking to remove the president from office hope to hear testimony from his former National Security Adviser John Bolton.

But Democrats refused any deal to allow the son of former US Vice-President Joe Biden to be called as a witness.

Mr Trump is accused of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. He strongly denies any wrongdoing.

House Democrats have up to three days to make their case as they present their arguments in the impeachment trial in the Senate. Mr Trump's defence team will have three days after that for a rebuttal.

Democrats accuse the president of using US military aid as a bargaining chip in an attempt to prod Ukraine into announcing an investigation to discredit his would-be Democratic White House challenger, Mr Biden.

Mr Trump has been touting corruption claims against Mr Biden, whose son Hunter held a lucrative board position with a Ukrainian gas firm while his father was US vice-president and in charge of American-Ukrainian relations.

Attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, Mr Trump jokingly warned he might confront Democrats by coming to "sit right in the front row and stare at their corrupt faces".

The impeachment trial could end next week, but Mr Trump's fellow Republicans control the chamber and are unlikely to oust him.

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There was one thing in particular that President Trump said which was kind of like a red rag to a bull.

It's when he said basically: "Well things are going very well, we have all the information, and they [Democrats] have none of it."

Well, if you want a fair trial, then maybe that information should be made available.

We keep using the word "trial", and the words "jurors" and "witnesses" and "evidence", but we must not lose sight that this is a political process.

We saw that clearly last night when the first votes started coming in. In a vote that split completely along party lines, 53 Republicans said "no we should not be able to subpoena the White House for documents", while 47 Democrats said "yes we should".

So we have Donald Trump kind of goading and saying: "Look I've got the information. We know what happened, but we're not going to tell you."

I think this might inflame public opinion. Polls are already indicating that a clear majority believe that evidence should be handed over and witnesses should be called.

Democrats want to call Mr Bolton, who referred to the White House's alleged political pressure on Ukraine as a "drug deal", according to previous witness testimony in the House of Representatives.

But the former national security adviser has said he will not consider testifying unless served with a legal summons known as a subpoena.

Mr Trump's Republican allies have argued Hunter Biden should also be ordered to appear before the impeachment trial.

But Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the top Democrat in the Senate, told reporters during a break in the trial on Wednesday: "That trade is not on the table."

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Joe Biden said on Wednesday in Osage, Iowa, where he is campaigning for the White House that he would not offer himself up in any witness trade.

"We're not going to turn it into a farce or political theatre," Mr Biden said. "I want no part of that."

Defending his son, Mr Biden added: "There's nobody that's indicated there's a single solitary thing he did that was inappropriate or wrong - other than the appearance. It looked bad that he was there."

Mr Biden said last year that if elected president, no-one in his family would hold a job or have a business relationship with a foreign corporation.

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On Wednesday, the lead Democratic prosecutor, California congressman Adam Schiff, criticised President Trump's dealings with Ukraine as "worse than crazy".

"It's repulsive, it's repugnant. It breaks our word. And to do it in the name of these corrupt investigations is also contrary to everything we espouse around the world," he said.

Mr Schiff, who is chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, urged Republicans to vote to remove Mr Trump from office to "protect our democracy".

He warned that senators would "also undermine our global standing" if they do not oust the president.

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The first day of the trial dragged on till the early hours of Wednesday morning as the senators debated a flurry of incremental motions.

Much of the evidence being laid out is a rehash of testimony already presented exhaustively in the House of Representatives, which voted to impeach Mr Trump last month.

Under arcane rules, senators are forbidden to drink coffee on the chamber floor and are only allowed water and milk.

A number of senators, mostly Republicans, were seen to be absent from the chamber during Mr Schiff's presentation.

Also, several members were spotted dozing during the proceedings.

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Impeachment: Democrats reject witness swap in Trump trial - BBC News

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders during the Democratic presidential campaign debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, January 14, 2020. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)If and when the race narrows to the strongest candidate in each lane, Democrats will be forced to focus on the only questions that really matter to them.

Sure, anything can happen, and pundit predictions are hardly worth the pixels that deliver them. But if I were phoning my bets overseas to PaddyPower, Id buy Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden and short Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. The four-person race looks set to become a two-person race in the near future, and I think the dynamic will be self-reinforcing. Biden vs. Bernie: a race for the ages and the aged.

Biden has basically stayed at the top of the heap since he entered this race. Hes done so despite substandard fundraising and no cheering section in the media. Many Democrats detest the fact that he is leading. They worry about his verbal slip-ups and his politically incorrect statements. They dont want the Democratic standard-bearer in 2020 to be a man old enough to remember doing deals with segregationists, much less one who seems proud of that history. They fear that he would become the partys Bob Dole, a past-his-prime senator who got the nod through sheer seniority, unable to take on the energetic, if sleazy, incumbent. Yet while hes been attacked by younger, hungrier, more diverse candidates, Biden has maintained his dominant position among African-American voters and kept a healthy plurality of the older Democrats who turn out in primary elections. And front-runners have a tendency to sweep through divided fields.

Standing in his way is Bernie, who is surging two weeks before Iowa, in striking distance of the lead there and, according to one reliable poll, holding a decent lead in New Hampshire. Part of his national surge is his increased performance among non-white voters.

Id bet on the field to narrow to these two for two reasons.

First, theres a tendency for the top-polling candidates going into Iowa to overperform in the final results, because the caucusing process ultimately forces supporters of low-performing candidates to cast their votes for stronger ones. Second, the possibility of Bernies winning may drive a stampede toward Biden or vice versa.

The emergence of a head-to-head race between Biden and Sanders would immediately clarify the choices for Democrats.

One septuagenarian Sanders has recently suffered a heart attack. The other septuagenarian Biden frequently seems to have senior moments in the middle of his sentences. A race between these two could eliminate age as a relevant dynamic, leaving clear questions of electability and ideology on the table.

And what then? On one side there is Biden, the more moderate Democrat who scares nobody by design hes framed his entire campaign as a return to normalcy but doesnt excite progressive activists. On the other side there is Sanders, whose has argued in recent debates that he is electable because he has the backing of a large, young, grassroots movement whose enthusiasm will become contagious. The viability of one could drive the viability of the other.

After many pointless hours debating the ins and outs of Platonic health-care reforms that will never be implemented and many pointless minutes worrying about personality, a BidenSanders clash would focus the race on the only questions that really matter to Democrats: Should the party move to the left or to the center? Do the necessary voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin want a major revision to the American economic model, or do they merely want a Democratic candidate who connects with them on the gut level, who wont call them deplorable?

Those are debates worth having, and Democrats may have them sooner than youd think.

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The Coming Biden and Bernie Show - National Review