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One of the most interesting numbers in the new Washington Post-ABC News poll is buried deep within the cross tabs.

The poll shows that, on the generic ballot, the GOP leads 50-44 among all likely voters. But among unmarried women, Democrats have a48-43 edge.

That might seem to be a good thing for Democrats, except that they count on single women in a much biggerway -- in fact, so much so thatthis demographic is routinely highlighted as the key to Democrats keepingthe Senate.

"To Hold Senate, Democrats Rely on Single Women," wrote the New York Times in July. The group Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund commissioned a poll from a Democratic pollster around the same time and headlined it, "New Poll: Unmarried Women Voters Could Make the Difference in Senate Battleground States. Then, when thesupport for Democrats among single women in that same poll doubled, Real Clear Politics reported, "Unmarried Women Fuel Pollster's Optimism for Dems."

It makes sense. After all, this is a big portion of the so-called "Obama coalition" -- voters whoare less apt to vote in midterms but turned out big for the presidentin 2008 and 2012 and voted for him by huge margins. Also in that coalition are African American, Hispanics and young people. Unmarried women, though, comprise a significantlybigger share of eligible voters than the others: about 25 percent.

Over the last four elections, here's how the unmarried-woman vote has looked:

As you can see, all of these margin are much larger than five points. Democrats have won unmarried women by between 25 and 41 points each of the past four elections. Obama won 70 percent of them in 2008, to just 29 percent for John McCain.

Of course, we shouldn't read too much into one poll, and breaking out small sub-samples (this poll interviews 228 registered unmarried woman voters and 151 who are considered "likely" to vote on Nov. 4) results in high margins of error. The idea that unmarried women will only favor Democrats by five points next week is probablyfar-fetched, and the margin of error means that five-point margin couldbe significantly higher.

Indeed, recent polls from AP-GfK and the Pew Research Center show unmarried women favoring Democrats by 14 and 20 points, respectively.And the Democratic pollster referenced above, Democracy Corps, showed the gap at 22 points.

But all fourof these polls still show smaller margins than have exited overthe last four elections. In other words, all of these polls show this group is a precarious one for Democrats, though none of them indicate women will definitely favor Democrats by less than in recent races.

View post:
The Fix: Single women are turning into a huge question mark for Democrats

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Washington (CNN) -- The number making Mike Podhorzer anxious these days is 15.

That's the lead Democrats have over Republicans among working class voters in the final days of the 2014 midterm elections, according to his polling at the AFL-CIO, the nation's largest labor federation. That might seem good for Democrats, but in modern times, the party always wins voters making $50,000 or less.

For Podhorzer, the AFL-CIO's political director and one of the Democratic party's top thinkers on voter turnout, it's the spread that matters.

"Democratic victories are powered by the votes of the people who are more financially stressed," Podhorzer said in an interview with CNN at the labor federation's Washington offices, just up the street from the White House. "That's been the case going back to the New Deal. When working class people turn out and vote Democratic, that more than compensates for the advantage that Republicans have among upper income voters."

READ: CNN poll: Voters are angry

In other words, with GOP dependably winning upper-income Americans, it's up to Democrats to run up the numbers with downscale voters, who made up about 40% of the electorate in the last election.

When Democrats clobber Republicans nationally among working class voters as they did by 22 points in 2012 they win. When the margin is tighter it was only an 11-point win for Democrats in 2010 they lose.

The 55-40 lead Democrats are clinging to among people making under $50,000 is wider than the 50-39 lead they had earlier this summer, making this year's outcome harder to predict. Podhorzer said it does explain why Democrats are still in the hunt heading into next Tuesday, suggesting that next week's election won't resemble the GOP tidal wave of 2010.

But it still makes him nervous.

Read more from the original source:
The magic number for Democrats