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For Christine Morse and a handful of other Democrats vying for a seat in the state House this cycle, running in a competitive district carries even more weight than usual.

Democrats across the state and country are banking on Morse a Kalamazoo County commissioner whos running against small business owner Bronwyn Haltom in the open 61st House District to be one of four candidates to flip a seat currently held by Republicans and deliver a Democratic majority in the House for the first time since 2010.

National progressive groups have pinpointed Michigan as a target state for flipping legislative control, investing money and time into districts with the most potential. Meanwhile, Republicans are hoping Trumps presence at the top of the ticket and a strong ground game will help them hold onto their majority.

If they can pull it off, Democrats would get the advantage in controlling Michigans divided government, giving Gov. Gretchen Whitmer an ally in the legislature and putting the party in the drivers seat when setting the House agenda and policy priorities.

No pressure.

In her district, Morse said shes feeling cautiously optimistic, noting that shes feeling more energy on the campaign trail than when she campaigned for commissioner in 2018 and an appetite for change among prospective voters. But shes not letting up.

You can never get comfortable when youre fighting for a race like this, she said. Its critical this year to bring change to the state House so that we can move forward on issues that really impact peoples lives.

Related: As Dems hope to win state House, Gov. Whitmer endorses Kalamazoo-area candidates

Republicans feel the math points to them maintaining their legislative majority past 2020. Unlike in 2018, the presence of President Donald Trump on the ballot presents an opportunity for the base to vote down-ticket in a way that could increase turnout, said Robbie Rankey, director of caucus services for the Michigan House Republicans.

This could yield results in the I-75 corridor, he said, which includes optimism for incumbent Rep. Laurie Pohutskys seat, as well as Rep. Brian Elders seat in Bay City. Even seats such as Rep. Sheryl Kennedys and Rep. Darrin Camilleri in the Downriver and Macomb County regions could be in play, he said.

I think that protecting Ryan Berman in the 39th, Annette Glenn in the 98th and then our best flip opportunity is in the 19th district with Pohutsky out of Livonia, he said. We do those three things with our three-seat majority currently I just dont see how (Democrats') math grows to get to a majority.

But Democrats say the momentum has been building for years, pointing to the 2018 election when Democratic candidates made inroads on the House Republican majority. Theyre hoping a combination of strong candidates, voter enthusiasm and help from national groups can put them over the edge.

Four seats to go, and weve got a lot more than that in play, said House Democratic Leader Christine Greig, D-Farmington Hills. Were really positive and excited and the level of support were getting... everyones really keeping their eye on Michigan for the state legislature, too."

For both parties, much of the focus has been on open seats where demographics have shifted over time.

The COVID-19 pandemic has somewhat stymied traditional campaign strategies like in-person fundraisers and large rallies. Small, socially distanced campaign events and door-knocking have become the go-to, and in the most competitive districts, mailers and television ads are flooding voters' mailboxes and airwaves.

In addition to the 61st, open Oakland County seats such as the 38th District, a race between Republican Chase Turner and Democrat Kelly Breen, and the 45th District, where Republican Mark Tisdel and Democrat Barb Anness are facing off, are getting a lot of attention from political observers.

The 104th District in Grand Traverse County, where Republican John Roth and Democrat Dan ONeil are running to replace embattled, term-limited Republican Rep. Larry Inman, is also viewed as in play.

A few seats held by incumbents running for reelection are also likely to factor into the majority math after polls close on Nov. 3. Democrats are eyeing Republican Rep. Ryan Bermans seat in the 39th District as a potential pickup, and Republicans are bullish on their chances in the 19th District, where Pohutsky eked out a win in 2018, and in the 96th, where Elder is seeking to win reelection in a district where many voters historically aligned with Democrats supported President Donald Trump in 2016.

Related: National group supporting Democratic women candidates drops $604K into Michigan House races

Michigan Democrats' efforts are being noticed and financially supported this cycle by a number of national groups keen on flipping state legislative chambers blue.

EMILYs List, a national group that backs Democratic women candidates who support abortion rights, announced Wednesday morning it had spent $420,000 on Michigan state House races this month, bringing the groups total investment in Michigan races to $604,000.

In a recent press call, EMILYs List President Stephanie Schriock said state legislative races have become more critical as the U.S. Supreme Court trends more conservative and as handling of the COVID-19 response continues to vary state by state. She noted that nearly all the Democratic candidates in Michigans most competitive races are women, predicting candidates like Morse, Breen, Anness and Julia Pulver in the 39th are going to make the difference in delivering a Democratic House majority.

Now more than ever, we need to elect strong, smart and compassionate leaders at the state legislative level so we can whip these chambers, pass good laws that protect health care and reproductive freedom, she said.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is predicting suburban voters will make the difference, citing a September survey in Michigans 38th and 61st districts from Public Policy Polling that showed 48% of voters would support a state legislative Democratic candidate over a Republican in both districts, compared to 45% in the 38th and 43% in the 61st who would support a Republican candidate over a Democrat.

Republicans think they can run on saving the suburbs, but suburban voters have responded loud and clear: no thanks, Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Jessica Post said in a statement.

But suburban Republicans are confident their candidates are hard to smear in the eyes of voters. Meshawn Maddock, 11th District Chair for the Michigan GOP, highlighted the resume of former schoolteacher Martha Ptashnik, Pohutskys Republican challenger. In 2018, Pohutsky won the district by 224 votes.

Shes someone who the typical left-wing playbook wont work, Maddock said. The tactics they use wont work. Shes a former teacher. She knows many of the parents and teachers all over Livonia, many of whom are not comfortable with a radical left-wing agenda, which is what they have right now.

She also praised Turner, who is making his second bid for the 38th District against Breen, as a fit and tan hard worker whos been pounding the pavement in his district in his bid to win over voters.

If you have a candidate that pounds on doors and theyre chunky and pasty, the chances are they havent been doing what theyre saying, she said. Chase is a very hard worker, and hes poured himself into that district for the last four years.

Vic Fitz, 6th District chair for the Michigan Republican Party, said Haltoms bid for the 61st is strong because her experience running a small business speaks to pocketbook issues that Republicans and Independents care about most.

She fits the district, he said. Shes a Portage native, came from the middle class, has fought for jobs and education and we think shes going to win.

Gaby Goldstein is the national political director for the group Sister District, a group dedicated to electing Democrats to state legislatures. In Michigan, the group is focused specifically on flipping the 61st for Morse and holding the seats currently held by Pohutsky and Rep. Padma Kuppa, who represents the 41st District.

Goldstein said voters around the country are becoming more aware of how critical state legislatures are, especially now that lawmakers are playing a key role in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. She said Democratic candidates' messaging on a science-based approach to dealing with the pandemic and rebuilding the economy is resonating with voters.

The level of recalcitrance among the Republicans in the Michigan legislature has... created a situation where its really difficult for the governor to govern effectively and for the legislature to get anything done, she said. Every single day of this pandemic has been an object lesson in the importance of state policy."

Rankey said that generally, the hope is that voters will see that Republican legislators advocated for them during the COVID-19 pandemic. He pointed to representatives such as COVID-19 Oversight Chair Rep. Matt Hall, R-Marshall, taking the Unemployment Insurance Agency to task for their backlog of claims during the height of the COVID-19 lockdown this summer.

Weve talked to candidates about emphasizing pocketbook issues, Rankey said. How are our representatives helping these people day to day? Theres a lot of great things to highlight and weve done well to do that."

Whitmer has taken a direct role in campaigning for state House candidates in recent weeks, formally endorsing candidates and attending socially distanced campaign events in competitive districts.

At an Oct. 7 outdoor campaign event for Morse in Texas Township, Whitmer said shes hopeful her administration will have more allies in both the legislature and the White House come November. But she urged the small crowd to keep their feet on the gas heading into November.

We can do this. All of the ingredients are here, but we can make no assumption that its a forgone conclusion," she said.

Related: Incumbents prevail, women win big and more takeaways from Michigans state House primaries

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Michigan Democrats want to flip the state House. Can they? - MLive.com

One candidate slapped on a helmet, a black leather jacket and rode his Harley Davidson across Michigan. His ads highlight his toughness on China and his support for banning Chinese travelers from entering the United States early in the coronavirus outbreak, a policy of President Trumps.

The other candidate calls himself nonpartisan. He denounces the way politics have become nastier and more divisive. His wife recently appeared in a campaign ad to talk about their young son who has asthma as a way to demonstrate her husbands commitment to protecting health insurance for people with pre-existing conditions.

Neither candidate running for U.S. Senate in Michigan seems to want voters to know whether he is the Republican or the Democrat.

For Senator Gary Peters, the motorcycle guy and one of only two Democrats running for re-election in a state that Mr. Trump won in 2016, the path to victory becomes much easier if he can persuade enough of Mr. Trumps supporters to vote for him.

For John James, the self-described nonpartisan Republican, success will come from the opposite situation: If enough people voting for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. cross over to support a Republican for the Senate.

The race one of a handful that could tip the balance in the Senate is among the most contested and expensive in the country. Polls show a tighter race than Democrats had anticipated, and both sides are fighting for the few remaining independent, undecided voters. In an election in which the parties have focused on getting their base to turn out, Michigan stands out as a place where winning the middle could make the difference.

Polls have varied but show Mr. James with an outside chance of helping Republicans flip a Democratic seat. A New York Times/Siena College survey found Mr. Peters up by one point, while others put his lead in the mid-to-high single digits.

Money has been pouring in. The outside political group leading efforts for Democrats, Senate Majority PAC, put $4.4 million into Michigan last week, federal filings show bringing its total spending in the race to over $18 million. The only state where it spent more last week was Georgia. Republicans countered by adding an additional $5.6 million to the $9 million they had already pledged to spend in the final weeks.

Its all been a bit disorienting for some voters.

Charles Gaba, a health policy analyst and Democrat from the Detroit suburb of Bloomfield Township, said that his friends who werent as politically tuned in were not sure which candidate was the Republican and which was the Democrat. Compounding the issue, Mr. Gaba said, is the fact that Mr. James is Black, which probably makes some people assume that he is a Democrat. Mr. Peters, a middle-aged white man, fits the stereotypical image of a Republican.

Some people are confused, Mr. Gaba, 50, said, which could contribute to the tightness in the polls.

Mr. James, a 39-year-old former Army helicopter pilot, has tried to steer his underdog campaign through one of the most difficult balancing acts of any Republican running for national office in this election. As a Black man on the same ticket as a president who makes overtly racist appeals to voters, Mr. James has been constrained and reticent in his criticisms, mindful that pushing back too hard could offend Mr. Trumps intensely loyal base.

And as a candidate vying for the support of nonpartisans in a state that has trended away from Mr. Trump since he won there by 10,704 votes four years ago, Mr. James has strained to prove his independence. Democrats have attacked him for his refusal to put greater distance between himself and the president, highlighting comments like his insistence that he would support the presidents agenda 2,000 percent.

Mr. Jamess campaign sees victory within reach if he can continue to tighten the race and Mr. Trump improves his standing; the latest data show Mr. Biden ahead in the state by high single digits.

Both parties are betting that despite the tribal nature of todays politics, there are still people open to the idea of voting for a candidate from a different party in races down the ballot. That is what happened in 2016, when winning Republican Senate candidates carried battleground states by a few more percentage points than Mr. Trump on average. In bellwether Wisconsin, for instance, Mr. Trump won with 47 percent of the vote while Senator Ron Johnson received 50 percent.

There is this thing in America called ticket splitters, said Curt Anderson, a Republican consultant who is advising the James campaign. That doesnt mean it will happen, but it happens all the time. Im not saying its not harder now or that the party bases arent more firm. But our data is pretty clear that theres a path for John, and were on it.

Not all Republicans are convinced. The Trump campaigns internal polling does not show Mr. Peters at considerable risk. And the money that Republicans continue to invest in the race has led aides to senators in races that appear to be much closer to complain privately to party officials.

Oct. 23, 2020, 8:57 a.m. ET

If Mr. James wins, it will be an embarrassing blow for Democrats in a state that they assumed would be a lock. Only one Republican, a candidate for the states Supreme Court, has won a statewide race since Mr. Trumps narrow victory four years ago. Democrats flipped two House seats in 2018 and won the governors race after eight years of Republican control.

Mr. Peters, 61, has been involved in local, state and federal politics for three decades from the Rochester Hills City Council to the State Senate to the U.S. House of Representatives and now the Senate. But he is not well known and has not faced voters since 2014.

Folks are just getting nervous about the entire election right now, he said. We know what happened in 2016 in Michigan. Hillary was up in the polls about where Joe Biden is right now. And we know how that turned out.

Hes seen as a workhorse who prefers to operate behind the scenes but not as a particularly dynamic campaigner. Unlike the senior senator from Michigan Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat who parlayed a leadership role on the Agriculture Committee into bipartisan statewide support in her past three Senate races Mr. Peters has been stuck in the Senate minority.

Keep up with Election 2020

Ed Sarpolus, a Democratic political consultant and pollster, said that hes been worried about the race for months.

What he hasnt done for the last six years is be visible and personable, Mr. Sarpolus said. What happened to his family in his ads? Youve got to tell your story, but hes not shown any of that this year. He looks like a professor, rather than an everyday Joe.

The motorcycle trip this summer may have been an effort to shore up support with his base of organized labor, but it didnt help Mr. Peters with progressives, an emerging wing of the party, Mr. Sarpolus said.

Mr. Jamess competitiveness is the result of fastidious discipline with his message which critics say has consisted of avoiding settings where he would face difficult questions and then providing nonanswers the few times he has been put on the spot. Voters have found his personal narrative to be compelling: a West Point graduate and combat veteran who runs a shipping business that is part of the company that his father started.

I dont have a problem with Democrats because I dont have a blue message or a red message, Mr. James told an audience at a fund-raiser on the west side of the state on Friday. I dont have a Black message or a white message. I have a red, white and blue message.

Big donors have loved it, as have individuals who give far less. Mr. James has raised more money than Mr. Peters has in every quarter so far this year except for in the most recent quarter, when they effectively tied.

In todays all-or-nothing political climate, a candidate who occupies the wobbly middle ground is taking major risks. For Republicans, there are usually just two paths: fealty to the president or outright defiance.

Mr. James has hardly declared his independence from Mr. Trump. His criticism of the presidents handling of the unrest over the killing of George Floyd was gentle. But his public appearances lately have spoken volumes. When Mr. Trump visited the mid-Michigan town of Freeland in September, Mr. James spoke to the thousands who came for the rally. But his speech came two hours before Mr. Trump arrived and by then, Mr. James was gone. Mr. James did not appear on Saturday at the presidents rally in Western Michigan.

According to recent polls, there are still large numbers of undecided voters and although they tend to lean Democratic, the pollster Richard Czuba says Mr. Peters hasnt sealed the deal.

One of the things we found, particularly with young Black voters under 40, there is still a sizable undecided chunk out there, said Mr. Czuba, founder of the polling firm Glengariff Group, which in an early October poll found Mr. Peters with a five-point lead. These are the people who Gary Peters needs to bring in and he hasnt gotten there yet.

View original post here:
Are Michigan Democrats in Trouble in Their Senate Race? - The New York Times

President Trump told voters in Arizona that Americans are getting tired of the pandemic and accused the news media of exaggerating the crisis, as he sought to make up ground in a traditionally Republican state where the virus is making a comeback.

Your state is doing great with the pandemic, Mr. Trump said at a rally in Prescott, his first of two in the state on Monday. Theyre getting tired of the pandemic, arent they? You turn on CNN. Thats all they cover: Covid, Covid, pandemic. Covid, Covid, Covid.

You know why? Theyre trying to talk people out of voting, Mr. Trump added. People arent buying it, CNN, you dumb bastards, he said to cheers.

His dismissive remarks about the coronavirus echoed earlier ones he made Monday morning in a call with members of his campaign.

People are tired of Covid, Mr. Trump had complained on the call, to which several reporters had been invited. I have the biggest rallies Ive ever had. And we have Covid. People are saying: Whatever. Just leave us alone. Theyre tired of it.

He added, People are tired of hearing Fauci and these idiots.

After landing in Arizona, Mr. Trump complimented its Republican governor, Doug Ducey, saying that the state was really in great shape despite the fact that infections are again on the rise there. Arizona has had 231,910 coronavirus cases, the eighth-highest total in the nation, according to a New York Times database. Over the past week, there have been an average of 796 cases per day, an increase of 58 percent from two weeks ago.

In his rallies, Mr. Trump also revived his far-fetched warnings, clearly designed to appeal to affluent white voters, that Democrats want to destroy Americas suburbs by promoting affordable housing.

Speaking in Prescott, Mr. Trump boasted that he had rescinded a 2015 initiative requiring localities to create detailed plans to remedy racial segregation in housing. It allows low-income housing to be built, right next to your American dream, Mr. Trump said. What ultimately it means is crime will come pouring in.

Ive watched it for years, he added. Youve all watched it, right? Where they destroy these incredible communities.

He again harped on that message at a second rally in Tucson. I kept hearing that women from the suburbs wont like Trump, he said. I said, Why because Im stopping crime? Youre gonna have the suburbs be safe.

Recent polling has shown Mr. Trumps Democratic rival, Joseph R. Biden Jr., with a lead of as much as eight percentage points in Arizona, a traditionally Republican state that is growing more Democratic. Early voting has been underway in the state for nearly two weeks.

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In Arizona, Trump dismisses the virus and again claims Democrats will destroy the suburbs. - The New York Times

The Democratic Partys Soul of the Nation bus tour began its Colorado leg Thursday in Durango, stopping in Buckley Park, where candidates and party leaders milled with voters and helped hand out items.

I personally reached out to the Biden campaign some time ago. I was upset when Donald Trump said Biden had no law enforcement support, and I wanted to make clear that I support Biden, said La Plata County Sheriff Sean Smith. I dont like campaigning based on hate and divisiveness, and Im looking for us to go in a different direction. Thats why Im here today.

The bus carried yard signs, T-shirts, campaign buttons, stickers, window displays and other items for supporters to use as the party continues its get-out-the-vote efforts.

Supporters could also get their pictures taken with life-sized cutouts of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, a U.S. senator from California.

The bus was headed to Grand Junction after the 1-hour stop in Durango, with a planned stop in Silverton.

State Rep. Barbara McLachlan, said, Its all part of our get-out-the-vote effort. We really support Biden-Harris, now more than ever.

Chase Jonsen and Tara Manack, a couple visiting Durango from Portland, Oregon, stopped to pick up some T-shirts and stickers, and said they hoped to see new occupants in the White House after the Nov. 3 election.

We just stumbled upon this, Manack said, clutching her new Biden-Harris long-sleeve T-shirt.

parmijo@durangoherald.com

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Democrats rally the vote at Buckley Park - The Durango Herald

The national Democratic super PAC Forward Majority is doubling its spending to flip the Texas House, bringing its commitment to over $12 million.

The political action committee said in early September that it would drop $6.2 million to help Democrats capture the majority. But in an announcement first shared with The Texas Tribune, Forward Majority said it is now surging its spending to keep up with Republicans in the homestretch of the fight to control the lower chamber ahead of the 2021 redistricting process.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, the chief national GOP group focused on state legislative races, had vowed to top Forward Majority's initial $6.2 million investment, and it raised $5.3 million into a Texas-based account between July 1 and late September. Of that haul, $4.5 million came via GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson and his wife, Miriam.

"The RSLC and Karl Rove aren't going to call the shots in Texas in this election," Forward Majority spokesperson Ben Wexler-Waite said in a statement, alluding to both the national GOP outfit and a state-level PAC with which Rove, the famous party strategist, is working. "Republicans are hemorrhaging millions on Texas state house races because they know their majority is in grave jeopardy and that this is the most important state in the country for redistricting."

Democrats are nine seats away from the majority, and they also have to defend the 12 seats they picked up in 2018. Forward Majority has been exclusively on offense, targeting its original $6.2 million effort at 18 Republican-held seats.

Forward Majority said its spending surge was prompted by millions of dollars in TV ad buys by Republicans in some of the most competitive districts, such as those of Republican Reps. Jeff Leach of Plano, Angie Chen Button of Richardson, Morgan Meyer of Dallas and Sarah Davis of Houston. In two of those districts Meyer's and Davis' Forward Majority is teaming up with Everytown for Gun Safety, the national anti-gun violence group, to try to counter increased GOP ad spending.

Everytown said it is spending $600,000 to support Forward Majority's advertising against Meyer and Davis as well as to launch its own TV ads opposing three-Dallas area GOP lawmakers: Meyer, Button and Rep. Matt Shaheen of Plano. Those commercials target the lawmakers for not supporting proposals to stem gun violence, such as background checks on all gun sales.

The ramped-up spending plan by Forward Majority reflects just how fiercely competitive the fight for the majority has become. While Democrats had plenty to boast about on the latest campaign finance reports, Republicans in general had more money to spend heading into late September, and they are getting seven-figure aid in the final weeks from not just the RSLC but also Gov. Greg Abbott's campaign.

"We've long seen several paths to flipping the Texas House and we will continue to do everything we can to ensure Democratic legislative candidates aren't drowned out by millions in special interest money," Wexler-Waite said.

Disclosure: Everytown for Gun Safety has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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Democratic super PAC to spend $12 million in battle for the Texas House - The Texas Tribune