Libya: Libya's Fate Difficult to Predict, Analysts Say
By Mohamed Elshinnawi
As Libya slides deeper into political and military chaos, uncertainty reigns and analysts say it's difficult to predict next moves.
Some say Libya needs regional or broader foreign involvement; others say that would only aggravate the situation.
In mid-August, Libya's ambassador to Egypt, Mohamed Jibril, called for international intervention, saying "Libya is unable to protect its institutions, its airports and oil fields."
Last week, the country's ambassador to the United Nations, Ibrahim Dabbashi, asked the U.N. Security Council to disarm the warring factions. But the council decided against sending a U.N. peacekeeping force to Libya.
Two military coalitions are competing for governmental control. Their power struggles have almost paralyzed the country, leaving it with two de facto parliaments and two prime ministers.
One coalition, Libya Dawn, represents Islamist groups including the hardline Ansar al-Shariah and militias from the coastal city of Misurata. The other coalition includes supporters of former dictator Moammar Gadhafi, ousted in 2011. It's led by retired General Khalifa Haftar, an anti-Islamist.
Retired General Sameh Seif Alyazal, director of Cairo's Algomhuria Center for Strategic Studies, said it's "very difficult, if not impossible now, to disarm more than 1,600 militias and armed groups in Libya with millions of pieces of weapon and a variety of heavy weapons and missiles."
Seif Alyazal welcomed the Security Council's resolution to impose sanctions on militias and their political supporters who are fueling Libya's escalating war.
Egypt's former ambassador to Libya, Hany Khallaf, said stabilizing Libya will demand more international cooperation.
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Libya: Libya's Fate Difficult to Predict, Analysts Say