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Washington Whats the matter with Kansas?

Suddenly, theres no Democrat running for Senate in the Sunflower State and thats good news for the Democratic Party, which is fighting to keep its Senate majority. In improbable fashion, deep-red Kansas could be the Democrats savior.

Democratic nominee Chad Taylor abruptly withdrew from the race Wednesday, amid poor fundraising and low poll numbers. Independent candidate Greg Orman can now go one-on-one against three-term Sen. Pat Roberts (R), who just survived a bruising primary. The early thinking is that Mr. Orman, a wealthy businessman, has a real shot.

Apparently, national Republicans think so as well. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is dispatching veteran campaign strategist Chris LaCivita to Kansas to help Roberts, according to The New York Times.

A mid-August poll by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling showed Orman beating Senator Roberts by 10 points 43 percent to 33 percent in a hypothetical matchup. Now that pairing (plus a low-scoring libertarian) is no longer so hypothetical. Perhaps more alarming for Roberts is that the same poll showed him with just a 27 percent approval rating.

If Roberts loses in November, and the Democrats can convince Orman to caucus with them, that could spell the difference between losing and keeping their Senate majority.

Roberts has the fight of his life on his hands. And if you were going to cast a vote right now, youd be talking about Kansas sending, I believe, our first independent to Congress. This is huge, Chapman Rackaway, a professor of political science at Fort Hays State University, told The Wichita Eagle.

Mr. Rackaway predicted that Mr. Taylors supporters would flock to Orman.

Roberts isnt the only Republican incumbent in trouble in Kansas. Gov. Sam Brownback (R) faces a spirited challenge from Democrat Paul Davis; polls are close. Mr. Davis, Democratic leader in the Kansas House, says that tax cuts are wrecking the state budget and harming public education. In July, Davis announced the support of 100 Kansas Republicans, including more than 50 former legislators.

In their statement of support, the Republicans accused Governor Brownback, a former US senator, of bringing back from Washington a sharp-edged, win-at-all-costs political approach.

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Kansas shakeup could ruin GOP Senate takeover

Video: Kansas Democrat Chad Taylor Withdraws From Senate Race

Kansas Democrat Chad Taylors decision to end his campaign against Sen. Pat Roberts (R., Kan.) threw a monkey wrench into the Senate map. Suddenly, a safe GOP Senate seat is perceived as vulnerable, with Mr. Roberts facing political independent Greg Orman, a millionaire who has been campaigning with a pox-on-both-political parties message, instead of a splintered field that could divide the anti-incumbent vote.

Heres a look at the questions surrounding the Kansas Senate race as it stands now:

Who is Greg Orman? Hes a wealthy businessman from the Kansas City suburbs who made millions from a lighting company. He briefly campaigned as a Democrat against Mr. Roberts in 2008, though he terminated his campaign before the primary. He has the ability to self-fund but so far has tapped only $46,749 from his personal cash to the campaign, according to his most recent Federal Election Commission filings.

Does he really have a chance to defeat Mr. Roberts? Hard to say. The Rothenberg Political Report declared Mr. Roberts the most vulnerable Republican senator in the country, though thats a relatively low bar given that the only incumbent Republican with an even remotely competitive race is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.

Theres been scant polling since Mr. Roberts survived his primary, winning 48% of the vote. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling found Mr. Orman led Mr. Roberts by 10 percentage points in a two-way race.

Was this orchestrated by Washington Democrats? Democratic leaders in D.C., like Mr. Orman, insisted the Mr. Taylors departure was a surprise to them. But the Washington Post reported that Sen. Claire McCaskill (D., Mo.) spoke with Mr. Taylor in recent days about dropping out of the race to boost Mr. Orman. The Kansas GOP smells a rat.

Can an independent really win a Senate race?Its much easier when theres not a real threat from one of the major parties. Maine voters in 2012 sent independentAngus King to the Senate after national Democrats ignored their partys candidate. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is technically an independent, though that is because he is more liberally aligned than most Democrats. Both Mr. King and Mr. Sanders caucus with Senate Democrats Mr. Orman said hed side with whichever party has a clear majority. In the event of a tie hes said hed seek the best deal for Kansas, and presumably himself.

What was Mr. Ormans reaction been to Mr. Taylor dropping out? Radio silence so far. Mr. Ormans issued a brief milquetoast statement Wednesday afternoon calling Mr. Taylors withdrawal certainly an unexpected turn of events. He didnt conduct any other interviews and the campaign has been quiet on social media. He has built his campaign brand around the idea of his being an independent but to win Mr. Orman must win support from base Democrats, so it will be worth watching how he moderates that message.

How are Kansas Republicans taking the news? Theyre unhappy and trying to stop it. The Roberts campaign called Mr. Taylors withdrawal a corrupt bargain and the state party on Thursday suggested that Mr. Taylor cannot drop out of the race without proving that he would be incapable of holding office.

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With Democrat Out, Kansas Senate Race Is Suddenly Interesting

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Elections have consequences, and those consequences are most acutely felt, it seems, in closely contested elections.

In at least four hot races across the nation, Republican candidates have adopted a new approach to birth control: It should be available over the counter. More rights, more freedom, Republican Cory Gardner says in a new TV ad airing in Colorado, where he is locked in a tight race with first-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall.

The strategy is particularly notable because some of the candidates have in the past not exactly been supportive of ready access to birth control.

Gardner has been slapped around for months by Udall and his allies for his past support of personhood" ballot measures that would have legally established life as beginning at the point of conception. Only this year, when he entered the Senate race, did Gardner renounce the measures, saying that he had belatedly learned that they could restrict some forms of birth control.

Republican Thom Tillis, running against first-term Democrat Kay Hagan for a Senate seat in North Carolina, had previously said that it was within the states rights to ban birth control altogether -- although he would not say whether he supported such a move. Still, in a debate on Wednesday night, he declared that birth control pills should be available over the counter.

First, I believe contraception should be available -- and probably more broadly than it is today, said Tillis, the speaker of the state House, adding that I think over-the-counter oral contraception should be available without a prescription. If you do those kinds of things, you will actually increase the access and reduce the barriers for having more options for women for contraception.

Previously coming to the same conclusion were Republican Senate candidates Ed Gillespie in Virginia, who made his announcement in a July debate with Democrat Mark Warner, and Mike McFadden, seeking the Senate seat now held by Al Franken in Minnesota.

The moves, which bear the strong scent of election-year choreography, appear intended to blunt criticisms from Democrats that the GOP is engaged in a war on women, as demonstrated by party efforts to, among other things, strip contraceptive coverage from Obamacare and defund Planned Parenthood facilities that offer birth control as part of their services.

Women, not incidentally, are among the most targeted voter groups in the fall midterm elections -- particularly single women, many of whom who have more than a passing familiarity with birth control. (Voting by single women typically drops off in non-presidential years; in the last midterm races in 2010, 22 million fewer unmarried women voted than in 2008 even though the number registered is growing, according to a study by the Voter Participation Center and Lake Research Partners.)

Nationally and in contested states, women have strongly gravitated to Democratic candidates, so their dropoff bodes ill for a party already struggling under an unpopular president and a Republican cast to the states in play this year.

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New Republican pitch to female voters: Over-the-counter birth control