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The entry of African mercenaries risks further destabilising the situation in Libya and presents risks for the countries these fighters will return back to.

There is a history of mercenaries from sub-Saharan African countries coming to Libya for work. It is no secret that Sudanese and Chadian fighters have been involved in Libyas crisis, fighting for a range of actors such as the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), the countrys UN-recognised government, as well as extremist groups like Daesh.

The role of Sudanese and Chadian mercenaries in the Libyan conflict has deepened since General Khalifa Haftar launched his ongoing campaign to take control of Tripoli in April 2019. According to UN sources, Sudans Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (a.k.a. Hemeti)provided Haftar with military support and deployed 1,000 Sudanese Rapid Support Forces to eastern Libya in mid-2019.

Earlier this month, the Guardianreported on a new flow of Sudanese and Chadian mercenaries to Libya as the North African conflict further regionalizes. According to the leaders two factions comprised of Sudanese fighters operating in Libya, there have been hundreds of new recruits entering these two groups ranks as Libyas civil war rages on - placing the number of Sudanese mercenaries involved in the Libyan crisis above3,000. Both factions are allied with Haftars LNA, which is fighting to topple the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.

Who are these Sudanese fighters in Libya?

According to Jason Burke and Zeinab Mohammed Salih, many of the dominant Sudanese factions fighting in Libya previously waged war in Darfur and also participated in the uprising against former Sudanese strongman Omar al-Bashir. These authors alsoreported on claims that a large contingent of Sudanese fighters from the feared paramilitary Rapid Support Forces were deployed to Libya on [Haftars] request...

Thus far, it appears that these Sudanese fighters in Libya have made somewhat of a difference in the North African countrys civil war. A UN panel of experts produced reports which maintained that mercenaries from Sudan helped Haftars forces secure Libyas oil crescent, which was extremely important to the LNAs set of objectives on the ground after the launch of Operation to Liberate Tripoli.

Mercenaries from these African countries are travelling to Libya for reasons similar to why Sudanese fighters crossed the Red Sea to fight in Yemen. It is mainly about money. A lack of opportunities and resources at home have prompted these thousands of fighters to secure an income through the Libyan civil war. At the same time, tribal links and geopolitical factors are also part of the picture. Sudanese, Chadian, and Nigerien factions involved in the Libyan crisis have fought there based on hopes that their respective groups could garner support down the road for their sides in conflicts back in their home countries.

It seems safe to bet that the ramifications of Sudanese and Chadian fighters joining forces with other actors in Libyas conflict will prove destabilising for both Libya and these mercenaries home countries too. Years ago, officials in Khartoum raisedalarm over the Minnawi faction of the Sudan Liberation Movements participation in Libyas conflict because of concerns about what this group could potentially do after returning to Darfur. In mid-2017 the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey addressed the role of that mercenaries from sub-Saharan African have been playing in Libyas civil war,warning that the ChadSudanLibya triangle has once again become the center of a regional system of conflicts. A notable consequence of these conflicts has been the re-emergence since 2011 of a regional market for cross-border combatants.

Difficulties in the Sahel

Many lawless havens exist throughout Africas Sahel. Borders are porous and many live on the brink of famine in this waterless region. Armed groups, kidnappers, and smugglers take advantage of desperate conditions in this impoverished part of the world where centralised governments often exercise no control over large swathes of land within their official borders.

Many people throughout the Sahel have gone to Libya for work since the countrys plunge into chaos during the NATO intervention of 2011. As evidenced by the crisis that shook Mali in 2012, themovement of weaponry from Gaddafis forces sank Mali into its own nightmarish conflict. Throughout this past decade, security in other parts of the Sahel such as the Burkina Faso-Mali-Niger tri-border area has suffered from the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimeen, and Ansarul Islam among other violent and hateful extremist groups.

With Libyas civil war raging on and Sudanese and Chadian mercenaries continuing to contribute to the instability that has beset Libya since Qaddafis ouster, the long-term impacts on Darfur and Chad are yet to be realised. Yet as more Sudanese and Chadian citizens go north to Libya to fight as mercenaries there are difficult questions about these militants activities following the Libyan civil war, which remain open.

For their part, ordinary Libyans who want a return to peace have their fears mounting as more mercenaries enter their country. With both sidesthe GNA and LNAalong with extremist groups such as Daesh counting on foreign fighters to help with their respective struggles, there seems to be a nearly endless supply of militants from sub-Saharan Africa who can help Haftar and others in the conflict conclude that continued warfare can achieve objectives at a time in which Libya truly needs a diplomatic solution to resolve its civil war.

While the international community has expressed much concern about the illegal flow of weapons into Libya, there should be greater attention paid to the flow of mercenaries into the war-torn country. Undoubtedly, resolving the Libyan conflict will require addressing multiple factors related to these foreign fighters.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World.

We welcome all pitches and submissions to TRT World Opinion please send them via email, to opinion.editorial@trtworld.com

Source: TRT World

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African Mercenaries and the ChadSudanLibya Triangle - TRT World

The UN envoy to Libya Ghassan Salame has told French newspaper Le Monde that the UNSMIL has documented intensified non-Libyan drone activity in the Libyan airspace recently.

Salame, in an interview on Monday, indicated that there are also several planes coming frequently from Syria to Benghazi, adding that the UNSMIL doesn't know what was on those planes.

He also explained that the Libyan Presidential Council's government had requested the support of Turkey in response to the presence of Russian mercenaries fighting for Khalifa Haftar's forces on Tripoli frontlines.

"There are multinational mercenaries, including Russians, coming to help Haftar's forces. There are indeed countries that support the war in Tripoli." Salame remarked.

He told Le Monde as well that some member states of the Security Council are violating the Security Council's arms embargo in Libya.

Since April 04, Haftar's forces have been leading an offensive against Tripoli in a bid to take control of the capital from the Libyan Presidential Council's government, yet making little progress as they remain positioned on the outskirts of Tripoli.

More:
UN envoy to Le Monde: Multinational mercenaries are fighting for Haftar in Libya - The Libya Observer

Whenever a major oil-producing region is engulfed in prolonged warfare, speculation starts to abound regarding all the potential changes to its oil and gas policy and the companies willing to take a share in its projects. The future of Iraqi oil production seems more or less settled for the upcoming years with international majors operating the most complex and grand-scale enterprises, whilst the Iraqi state companies generate know-how. Syria, too, despite occasional flareups, seems to have decided which way to go with its hydrocarbon projects the likelihood that state-affiliated companies from Russia or China will play a crucial role in re-erecting the countrys damaged infrastructure is higher than ever. But what about Libya?

The above question might be put a tad differently - projects which remained safe throughout the past months and years will surely remain as they function today but what would happen to the ones near or inside conflict zones? Deciding to invest into Libyas upstream requires a substantial amount of courage as the North African country is still torn between two rival governments, still struggles to come to terms with the Field Marshal Haftar-led offensive on Tripoli. Thus, if one is to invest into onshore projects (offshore production has remained uninterrupted throughout the Civil War), especially in territories which might be considered disputed, one needs some solid backing. Perhaps a return of a Russian oil company might provide a compass for future projects to come.

Tatneft has resumed exploration in its Block 04 acreage within the Ghadames Basin early December, less than 2 months after it had publicly voiced its interest in returning to the North African country. Having clinched eight blocks in Libya in the 2006-2007 licensing rounds and all of them under 100% control and operatorship, Tatneft managed to drill 6 wildcats in the first years of appraisal (with 2 commercial discoveries announced in Block 04). The seismic surveys of the Ghadames blocks are still not finalized AGESCO was tasked now to follow up with the remaining acreage that was still not covered in 2014 when Tatneft announced its suspension of all activities. Related: Is This The Beginning Of A Shale Crisis?

Graph 1. Tatneft Acreage in Libya.

Source: Author.

Tatneft claims that it would seek to invest $15 billion in new upstream investment by 2040, although the majority of those would go to projects in the Volga-Urals Basin in Russia. Moving abroad would also be considered a good step for Tatneft as it still has some reputation to ameliorate following its 2000s investments into Libya and Syria. It has spent more than $200 million in Libya without any tangible results so far, hence the pressure to deliver is manifest. Although it might be justifiably claimed that the Civil War rendered field development impossible and that less than half of the 14 years that passed since the signing of the first production sharing deal has actually passed, still, a Libyan breakthrough might be Tatnefts best option to effectuate a real breakthrough. Related: Another Oil Major Bails On Marcellus Shale

It has been reported that the Libyan NOC might compel Tatneft to take an even more active role in Libyan upstream, with political backing to keep the burgeoning negotiations intact. The crux of the matter lies in LNOCs relative lack of experience with heavy viscous crudes, a segment in which Tatneft (thanks to its extensive experience with sulphurous crudes from depleted reservoirs) could be very helpful. This was one of the reasons why LNOC reached out to Tatneft to start joint work on heavy projects, too. Tatneft is one of the key recipients of Russian tax exemptions as most of its output comes from fields that are considered depleted thus allowing to keep its production relatively cost-efficient despite the usage enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods.

Graph 2. Tatneft Crude Production in 2010-2019.

Source: Tatneft reports.

The rationale behind Tatnefts decision is straightforward enough compelled to work in the mature producing Volga-Urals region (i.e. in and around Tatarstan) with very little international upstream exposure, the company needs high-profile assets that can insulate it from sudden risks and diversify its resource base. The Russian firms production has been on the increase in the past 5 years, expected to reach 588kbpd in 2019 yet its future progress depends to a great extent on externalities i.e. whether the government continues to subsidize mature production by means of tax exemptions, whether it does not separate heavy sour Tatneft crude into the occasionally flaunted Urals Heavy stream and whether external pricing would support the usage of EOR techniques.

Given that it is Libya it seeks a return to, a nation that Moscow has long sought to cultivate friendly relations with, the Russian state would buttress its claim going forward. Tatneft could opt to develop its acreage in the Sirte Basin, too, however saw Ghadames a more viable bet. This might seem odd given the constructive relationship between Moscow and Field Marshal Haftar Sirte is much deeper in Haftar-controlled territory and thus might be perceived as safer to work at yet in this case it is the 3 previous discoveries that eventually carried the day. If heavy streams are added to Tatnefts portfolio or if Gazprom decides to restart works on its offshore block, the political link between Moscow and Tripoli might get even more thorough.

By Viktor Katona for Oilprice.com

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Putin Makes A Move In Libya's Oil Crescent - OilPrice.com

By AFPMore by this Author

Layla Mohammed barely had time to gather her children's belongings before fleeing their southern Tripoli home when shelling targeted the Libyan capital's outskirts earlier this year.

For months she moved her family between apartments as soaring rents in the crowded city exhausted her savings, eventually leaving them squatting in an unfinished building alongside dozens of other families.

More than 140,000 Libyans like Mohammed have fled their homes since April, when forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar launched an assault on Tripoli, seat of the UN-recognised government.

In central Tripoli, the grey skeletons of a high rise construction site -- abandoned since 2008 due to a property dispute -- now host more than 170 families.

For some, the high rises in Tarik al-Sekka were "a gift from heaven", since the alternative was living in the street.

But "we live like animals -- without running water, electricity, or even sewerage," said Mohammed, a mother of seven.

Her youngest son is sick with a chronic respiratory illness. "The dust will kill him," Mohammed despaired.

"All we want is to live in dignity," she said.

Neighbour Samira crowds her four children into a single room in a nearby building, preferring the greater warmth it affords over any sense of privacy.

She feels safe in the eight square metre room, which thanks to a benefactor has a door and a window. "Even if it's not ideal, at least it's free," she said.

Initially, Samira was determined to stay in her southern Tripoli home, even as combat crept closer over the months.

But when a rocket fell near her house the terror became too much and she fled, she said.

The buildings sheltering Samira and Mohammed are just metres from the seat of the Government of National Accord (GNA).

But authorities have done little to help.

Mayssoun al-Diab is in charge of displacement issues for the GNA's crisis committee but admits "the government has offered them nothing, not even moral support".

According to her, the government was unable to find shelter for all the displaced, leaving many at the mercy of avaricious lenders.

Her committee requisitioned schools, public buildings and hotels to house the displaced, but faced with an ever-growing influx as the battle dragged on, more and more families found themselves homeless.

When school resumed, the situation got worse. After living for months in one Tripoli school, Khairi al-Doukali said his family was "evicted alongside dozens of other families" to allow classes to restart.

Eventually, the Doukali family also ended up on the Tarik al-Sekka building site.

In the face of government inaction, civic-minded Tripoli residents have responded to heartfelt pleas online and stepped in to help.

Every day people give food, clothing and blankets, according to Salem el-Chatti, a member of a neighbourhood support group.

"We try to distribute donated items in a fair manner," he said.

A man named Abdel-Atti arrives to donate a mattress and blankets.

"I pass by these buildings every day," he said.

"It breaks my heart that my kids are fed and sleep warm inside while our brothers are experiencing this tragedy.

More here:
Libya war leaves thousands homeless in Tripoli - Daily Nation

A WILTSHIRE mother says she has lost track of two daughters taken to Libya by their Libyan father nearly five years ago.

Tanya Borg, of Pewsey, has been fighting to get Angel El Zubaidy, 19, and her eight-year-old sister, back to Britain since her estranged husband Mohammed El Zubaidy left them with his mother in Tripoli in 2015.

She took High Court action in London shortly after her daughters vanished.

Judges have twice jailed El Zubaidy, 41, who has lived in Wood Green, north London, since returning to England alone, for breaching orders to get his daughters back.

El Zubaidy, who left jail in November after completing his latest term, has told judges that he does not know where his daughters are and cannot get them back to Britain.

Earlier this year Ms Borg also took legal action in Libya after travelling to Tripoli.

She saw her children briefly during her visit.

But her lawyer says they disappeared after a Libyan judge ordered their grandmother to produce them at a court hearing and their whereabouts are now unknown.

Ms Borg, who was born in Malta and met El Zubaidy two decades ago, says she is heartbroken and not sure what to do next.

"I'm pretty much back to square one," she said.

"It's very complicated.

"I'm not sure what I can do next.

"I'm talking to my lawyers."

She added: "Their father is in control. He has all the power. He could get them back. I beg him to get them home."

Lawyer Pam Sanghera, who represents Ms Borg and is based at Charles Strachan Solicitors, said mother and daughters were briefly reunited earlier this year in Libya.

But she said Ms Borg's daughters vanished after a Libyan judge ordered their grandmother to produce them.

"The grandmother failed to produce the children at court and since then, has not been contactable and has left her family home," she said.

"The children's whereabouts in Libya are therefore unknown to their mother.

"She has made extensive inquiries in Libya to track down her children to no avail."

More:
Heartbroken Wiltshire mother says she has 'lost track' of daughters taken to Libya by estranged husband - Salisbury Journal