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Erdogan Clings to His Ideal Election Date Despite Earthquakes

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to step up rebuilding efforts following two deadly earthquakes and stick to an election timetable he declared earlier, as he seeks to shore up popularity ahead of a potential hit to the economy.

Erdogan and senior members of his AK Party held meetings last week to discuss the pros and cons of a postponement to manage the aftermath of the natural disaster, according to people familiar with the talks. Their conclusion was to stick with the proposed vote timetable of May 14, though a return to the original date of June 18 remains on the table, they said.

That remains the case even after two more tremblors struck Turkey on Monday in the same area as the original pair, the people said.

The earthquakes that devastated southeast Turkey and Syria two weeks ago have killed more than 42,000 people and destroyed whole cities, upending election campaigns that were well in motion at the time of the disaster. The quake zone was home to about 8 million registered voters, or 14% of the electorate, and Turkeys supreme election council is expected to rule on how or whether ballots can be held there. About 2 million voters have left the area, according to the government.

Thats caused a headache for Erdogan, who was gearing up for what is expected to be one of the toughest electoral races of his two decades in power. The pace of the countrys emergency response and quality of construction work over a years-long boom have led to mounting criticism of the president, who has pledged a multibillion dollar construction blitz of quake-proof buildings and distributed handouts to quake victims in response.

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Erdogan has acknowledged an initial delay in dispatching rescue teams due to harsh winter conditions, but his government and the army have denied the overall response has been inadequate.

Why Turkeys Next Election Is a Real Test for Erdogan: QuickTake

Erdogan has publicly refrained from making a commitment to his previously declared, preferred election timetable since the earthquakes. The government declined to comment.

While postponing the vote could give the government more time to prioritize and address the crisis, Erdogan sees a quick start to the rebuilding effort and a commitment to the election timetable as a way to show strength, the people said. He also fears a delay to the vote could coincide with a further deterioration of the economy, with large parts of the population contending with the worst cost-of-living crisis in two decades, they said.

Turkeys opposition leaders have insisted on holding elections as originally scheduled on June 18, and the president doesnt want to give the impression he is trying to dodge the vote, the people said.

The president has previously said he would officially trigger the election process by around March 10 for the ballot to take place in mid-May. If he refrains from doing that, the vote would have to be held on June 18, the original slated date.

Pushing the vote later than that isnt permissible under Turkeys current constitution, which allows the president to do such a thing only during times of war.

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Erdogan Clings to His Ideal Election Date Despite Earthquakes

How AlphaZero Learns Chess – Chess.com

AlphaZero's learning process is, to some extent, similar to that of humans. A new paper from DeepMind, which includes a contribution from the 14th world chess champion Vladimir Kramnik, provides strong evidence for the existence of human-understandable concepts in AlphaZero's network, even though AlphaZero has never seen a human game of chess.

How does AlphaZero learn chess? Why does it make certain moves? What values does it give to concepts such as king safety or mobility? How does it learn openings, and how is that different from how humans developed opening theory?

Questions like these are being discussed in a fascinating new paper by DeepMind, titled Acquisition of Chess Knowledge in AlphaZero. It was written by Thomas McGrath, Andrei Kapishnikov, Nenad Tomasev, Adam Pearce, Demis Hassabis, Been Kim, and Ulrich Paquet together with Kramnik. It is the second cooperation between DeepMind and Kramnik, after their research from last year when they used AlphaZero to explore the design of different variants of the game of chess, with different sets of rules.

In their latest paper, the researchers tried a method for encoding human conceptual knowledge, to determine the extent to which the AlphaZero network represents human chess concepts. Examples of such concepts are the bishop pair, material (im)balance, mobility, or king safety. These concepts have in common that they are pre-specified functions that encapsulate a particular piece of domain-specific knowledge.

Some of these concepts were taken from Stockfish 8's evaluation function, such as material, imbalance, mobility, king safety, threats, passed pawns, and space. Stockfish 8 uses these as sub-functions that give individual scores leading to a "total" evaluation that is exported as a continuous value, such as "0.25" (a slight advantage to White) or "-1.48" (a big advantage to Black). Note that more recent versions of Stockfish have developed into Alpha-Zero-like neural networks but were not used for this paper.

The third type of concepts encapsulates more specific lower-level features, such as the existence of forks, pins, or contested files, as well as a range of features regarding pawn structure.

Having established this wide array of human concepts, the next step for the researchers was to try and find them within the AlphaZero network, for which they used a sparse linear regression model. After that, they started visualizing the human concept learning with what they call what-when-where plots: what concept is learned when in training time where in the network.

According to the researchers, AlphaZero indeed develops representations that are closely related to a number of human concepts over the course of training, including high-level evaluation of the position, potential moves and consequences, and specific positional features.

One interesting result was about material imbalance.As was demonstrated in Matthew Sadler and Natasha Regan's award-winning book Game Changer: AlphaZeros Groundbreaking Chess Strategies and the Promise of AI (New In Chess, 2019), AlphaZero seems to view material imbalance differently from Stockfish 8. The paper gives empirical evidence that this is the case at the representational level: AlphaZero initially "follows" Stockfish 8's evaluation of material more and more during its training, but at some point, it turns away from it again.

The next step for the researchers was to relate the human concepts to AlphaZero's value function. One of the first concepts they looked at was piece value, something a beginner will first learn when starting to play chess. The classical values are nine for a queen, five for a rook, three for both the bishop and knight, and one for a pawn. The left figure below (taken from the paper) shows the evolution of piece weights during AlphaZero's training, with piece values converging towards commonly-accepted values.

The image on the right shows that during AlphaZero's training, material becomes more and more important in the early stages of learning chess (consistent to human learning) but it reaches a plateau and at some point, the values of more subtle concepts such as mobility and king safety are becoming more important while material actually decreases in importance.

Another part of the paper is dedicated to comparing AlphaZero's training to the progression of human knowledge over history. The researchers point out that there is a marked difference between AlphaZeros progression of move preferences through its history of training steps, and what is known of the progression of human understanding of chess since the 15th century:

AlphaZero starts with a uniform opening book, allowing it to explore all options equally, and largely narrows down plausible options over time. Recorded human games over the last five centuries point to an opposite pattern: an initial overwhelming preference for 1.e4, with an expansion of plausible options over time.

The researchers compare the games AlphaZero is playing against itself with a large sample taken from the ChessBase Mega Database, starting with games from the year 1475 up till the 21st century.

Humans initially played 1.e4 almost exclusively but 1.d4 was slightly more popular in the early 20th century, soon followed by the increasing popularity of more flexible systems like 1.c4 and 1.Nf3. AlphaZero, on the other hand, tries out a wide array of opening moves in the early stage of its training before starting to value the "main" moves higher.

A more specific example provided is about the Berlin variation of the Ruy Lopez (the move 3...Nf6 after 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5), which only became popular at the top level early 21st century, after Kramnik successfully used it in his world championship match with GM Garry Kasparov in 2000. Before that, it was considered to be somewhat passive and slightly better for White with the move 3...a6 being preferable.

The researchers write:

Looking back in time, it took a while for human chess opening theory to fully appreciate the benefits of Berlin defense and to establish effective ways of playing with Black in this position. On the other hand, AlphaZero develops a preference for this line of play quite rapidly, upon mastering the basic concepts of the game. This already highlights a notable difference in opening play evolution between humans and the machine.

Remarkably, when different versions of AlphaZero are trained from scratch, half of them strongly prefer 3 a6, while the other half strongly prefer 3 Nf6! It is interesting as it means that there is no "unique good chess player. The following table shows the preferences of four different AlphaZero neural networks:

The AlphaZero prior network preferences after 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5, for four different training runs of the system (four different versions of AlphaZero). The prior is given after one million training steps. Sometimes AlphaZero converges to become a player that prefers 3 a6, and sometimes AlphaZero converges to become a player that prefers to respond with 3 Nf6.

In a similar vein, AlphaZero develops its own opening "theory" for a much wider array of openings over the course of its training. At some point, 1.d4 and 1.e4 are discovered to be good opening moves and are rapidly adopted. Similarly, AlphaZero's preferred continuation after 1.e4 e5 is determined in another short temporal window. The figure below illustrates how both 2.d4 and 2.Nf3 are quickly learned as reasonable White moves, but 2.d4 is then dropped almost as quickly in favor of 2.Nf3 as a standard reply.

Kramnik's contribution to the paper is a qualitative assessment, as an attempt to identify themes and differences in the style of play of AlphaZero at different stages of its training. The 14th world champion was provided sample games from four different stages to look at.

According to Kramnik, in the early training stage, AlphaZero has "a crude understanding of material value and fails to accurately assess material in complex positions. This leads to potentially undesirable exchange sequences, and ultimately losing games on material." In the second stage, AlphaZero seemed to have "a solid grasp on material value, thereby being able to capitalize on the material assessment weakness" of the early version.

In the third stage, Kramnik feels that AlphaZero has a better understanding of king safety in imbalanced positions. This manifests in the second version "potentially underestimating the attacks and long-term material sacrifices of the third version, as well as the second version overestimating its own attacks, resulting in losing positions."

In its fourth stage of the training, has a "much deeper understanding" of which attacks will succeed and which would fail. Kramnik notices that it sometimes accepts sacrifices played by the "third version," proceeds to defend well, keep the material advantage, and ultimately converts to a win.

Another point Kramnik makes, which feels similar to how humans learn chess, is that tactical skills appear to precede positional skills as AlphaZero learns. By generating self-play games over separate opening sets (e.g. the Berlin or the Queen's Gambit Declined in the "positional" set and the Najdorf and King's Indian in the "tactical" set), the researchers manage to provide circumstantial evidence but note that further work is needed to understand the order in which skills are acquired.

For a long time, it was believed that machine-learning systems learn uninterpretable representations that have little in common with human understanding of the domain they are trained on. In other words, how and what AI teaches itself is mostly gibberish to humans.

With their latest paper, the researchers have provided strong evidence for the existence of human-understandable concepts in an AI system that wasn't exposed to human-generated data. AlphaZero's network shows the use of human concepts, even though AlphaZero has never seen a human game of chess.

This might have implications outside the chess world. The researchers conclude:

The fact that human concepts can be located even in a superhuman system trained by self-play broadens the range of systems in which we should expect to find human-understandable concepts. We believe that the ability to find human-understandable concepts in the AZ network indicates that a closer examination will reveal more.

Co-author Nenad Tomasev commented to Chess.com that for him personally, he was really curious to consider if there is such a thing as a "natural" progression of chess theory:

Even in the human contextif we were to 'restart' history, go back in timewould the theory of chess have developed in the same way? There were a number of prominent schools of thought in terms of the overall understanding of chess principles and middlegame positions: the importance of dynamism vs. structure, material vs. sacrificial attacks, material imbalance, the importance of space vs. the hypermodern school that invites overextension in order to counterattack, etc. This also informed the openings that were played. Looking at this progression, what remains unclear is whether it would have happened the same way again. Maybe some pieces of chess knowledge and some perspectives are simply easier and more natural for the human mind to grasp and formulate? Maybe the process of refining them and expanding them has a linear trajectory, or not? We can't really restart history, so we can only ever guess what the answer might be.

However, when it comes to AlphaZero, we can retrain it many timesand also compare the findings to what we have previously seen in human play. We can therefore use AlphaZero as a Petri dish for this question, as we look at how it acquires knowledge about the game. As it turns out, there are both similarities and dissimilarities in how it builds its understanding of the game compared to human history. Also, while there is some level of stability (results being in agreement across different training runs), it is by no means absolute (sometimes the training progression looks a little bit different, and different opening lines end up being preferred).

Now, this is by no means a definitive answer to what is, to me personally, a fascinating question. There is still plenty to think about here. Yet, we hope that our results provide an interesting perspective and make it possible for us to start thinking a bit deeper about how we learn, grow, improvethe very nature of intelligence and how it goes all the way from a blank slate to what is a deep understanding of a very complex domain like chess.

Kramnik commented to Chess.com:

"There are two major things which we can try to find out with this work. One is: how does AlphaZero learn chess, how does it improve? That is actually quite important. If we manage one day to understand it fully, then maybe we can interpret it into the human learning process.

Secondly, I believe it is quite fascinating to discover that there are certain patterns that AlphaZero finds meaningful, which actually make little sense for humans. That is my impression. That actually is a subject for further research, in fact, I was thinking that it might easily be that we are missing some very important patterns in chess, because after all, AlphaZero is so strong that if it uses those patterns, I suspect they make sense. That is actually also a very interesting and fascinating subject to understand, if maybe our way of learning chess, of improving in chess, is actually quite limited. We can expand it a bit with the help of AlphaZero, of understanding how it sees chess."

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How AlphaZero Learns Chess - Chess.com

AI Topic: AlphaZero, ChatGPT, Bard, Stable Diffusion and more!

I'm in on the Bing AI (aka: ChatGPT).

I decided to have as "natural" of a discussion as I could with the AI. I already know the answers since I've done research in this subject, so I'm pretty aware of mistakes / errors as they come up. Maybe for a better test, I need to use this as a research aid and see if I'm able to pick up on the bullshit on a subject I don't know about...

Well, bam. Already Bing is terrible, unable to answer my question and getting it backwards (giving a list of RP2040 reasons instead of AVR reasons). Its also using a rather out-of-date ATMega328 as a comparison point. So I type up a quick retort to see what it says...

This is... wrong. RP2040 doesn't have enough current to drive a 7-segment LED display. PIO seems like a terrible option as well. MAX7219 is a decent answer, but Google could have given me that much faster (ChatGPT / Bing is rather slow).

"Background Writes" is a software thing. You'd need to combine it with the electrical details (ie: MAX7219).

7-segment displays can't display any animations. The amount of RAM you need to drive it is like... 1 or 2 bytes, the 264kB RAM (though an advantage to the RP2040), is completely wasted in this case.

Fail. RP2040 doesn't have enough current. RP2040 literally cannot do the job as they describe here.

Wow. So apparently its already forgotten what the AVR DD was, despite giving me a paragraph or two just a few questions ago. I thought this thing was supposed to have better memory than that?

I'll try the ATMega328p, which is what it talked about earlier.

Fails to note that ATMega328 has enough current to drive the typical 7-segment display even without a adapter like MAX7219. So despite all this rambling, its come to the wrong conclusion.

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So it seems like ChatGPT / Bing AI is about doing a "research", while summarizing pages from the top of the internet for the user? You don't actually know if the information is correct or not however, so that limits its usefulness.

It seems like Bing AI is doing a good job at summarizing the articles that pop up on the internet, and giving citations. But its conclusions and reasoning can be very wrong. It also can have significant blind spots (ie: RP2040 not having enough current to directly drive a 7-segment display. A key bit of information that this chat session was unable to discover, or even figure out it might be a problem).

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Anyone have a list of questions they want me to give to ChatGPT?

Another run...

I think I'm beginning to see what this chatbot is designed to do.

1. This thing is decent at summarizing documents. But notice: it pulls the REF1004 as my "5V" voltage reference. Notice anything wrong? https://www.ti.com/lit/ds/sbvs002/sbvs002.pdf . Its a 2.5V reference, seems like ChatGPT pattern-matched on 5V and doesn't realize its a completely different number than 2.5V (or some similar error?)

2. Holy crap its horrible at math. I don't even need a calculator, and the 4.545 kOhm + 100 Ohm trimmer pot across 5V obviously can't reach 1mA, let alone 0.9mA. Also, 0.9mA to 1.1mA is +/- 10%, I was asking for 1.000mA.

-------

Instead, what ChatGPT is "good" at, is summarizing articles that exist inside of the Bing Database. If it can "pull" a fact out of the search engine, it seems to summarize it pretty well. But the moment it tries to "reason" with the knowledge and combine facts together, it gets it horribly, horribly wrong.

Interesting tool. I'll need to play with it more to see how it could possibly ever be useful. But... I'm not liking it right now. Its extremely slow, its wrong in these simple cases. So I'm quite distrustful of it being a useful tool on a subject I know nothing about. I'd have to use this tool on a subject I'm already familiar with, so that I can pick out the bullshit from the good stuff.

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AI Topic: AlphaZero, ChatGPT, Bard, Stable Diffusion and more!

Trump investigation: Mike Pence testimony sought by prosecutor

Federal prosecutors have asked a judge to compel Vice President Mike Pence to comply with a grand jury subpoena for his testimony in a criminal investigation of ex-President Donald Trump for efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to President Joe Biden, a new report says.

The sealed motion, filed in recent days with Chief Judge Beryl Howell in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., came after attorneys for Trump asserted executive privilege over Pence's subpoena, CBS News reported Thursday.

On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that special counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing the probe, obtained grand jury subpoenas compelling the testimony of Trump's daughter, Ivanka Trump, and her husband, Jared Kushner.

Both Ivanka Trump and Kushner served as senior White House advisors during her father's administration.

Trump previously sought to exercise executive privilege which allows certain presidential communications to be kept confidential over grand jury testimony in the probe, news outlets have reported.

He has also tried to invoke it in other recent legal matters, including a battle over the hundreds of documents seized by the FBI last summer from his personal residence at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida. Smith also is leading a criminal probe of Trump in connection with that case.

Smith's motion to compel Pence's testimony in the election investigation asks Howell to uphold the legal authority of the grand jury subpoena, according to CBS, which cited people familiar with the case.

Pence's spokesman, when asked about the report by CNBC, pointed to CBS' reporting that Howell recently issued a gag order barring people involved in the probe from commenting on it.

Howell on Thursday rejected an effort by media outlets to access records related to the grand jury investigation.

A spokesman for Smith declined to comment to CNBC. An attorney for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Pence last week said he would fight the subpoena.

"No vice president in American history has ever been compelled to testify against a president with whom they serve," Pence said.

Pence plans to argue that his former role as president of the Senate which he held by virtue of being vice president of the United States means he is covered by the Constitution's "speech or debate" clause, which can protect legislative branch members from legal threats related to their work.

An attorney for Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., cited that clause earlier Thursday, telling a federal appeals court that the Justice Department has no authority to search the congressman's cell phone as part of the agency's probe of Trump.

Separately, the FBI seized a classified document in a search of Pence's home earlier this month.

That consensual search was scheduled weeks after an attorney for Pence alerted the government to a "small number" of records with classified markings that were found at his residence.

Biden's attorney general, Merrick Garland, appointed Smith as special counsel in November, in response to Trump's announcement that he is running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

At the end of his first term in office on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump urged Pence to help challenge the election results by rejecting key Electoral College votes for Biden.

After Pence refused,a violent mob of Trump's supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol, sending the vice president and congressional lawmakers into hiding.

Pence, who is teasing a possible White House run of his own, said he believes there will be "better choices" than Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Read the full report from CBS.

Continued here:
Trump investigation: Mike Pence testimony sought by prosecutor

Mike Pence effort to block January 6 testimony could succeed, experts …

Mike Pence is expected to fight his grand jury subpoena as part of the January 6 criminal investigation with the speech or debate protection a move that could prevent the special counsel from obtaining his testimony about key conversations with Donald Trump and members of Congress.

The special counsel overseeing the Trump investigations recently issued a subpoena to Pence a key witness with unique insight into a number of conversations with the former president and the efforts to stop the congressional certification of the 2020 presidential election.

Pence spoke to Trump one-on-one on 6 January 2021, when Trump was imploring him to unlawfully reject electoral college votes for Biden at the joint session of Congress, and was at a December 2021 meeting at the White House with Republican lawmakers who discussed objections to Bidens win.

The two interactions are of particular investigative interest to the special counsel Jack Smith as his office examines whether Trump sought to unlawfully obstruct the certification and defrauded the United States in seeking to overturn the 2020 election results.

Pence is not expected to ignore the grand jury subpoena, in recognition that some of the special counsels questions might pertain to issues beyond his role as presiding officer on 6 January a role the vice-president assumes when certifying a presidential election such as deliberations on election night, according to people familiar with the matter.

But Pence would invoke the speech or debate clause the constitutional provision that protects congressional officials from legal proceedings related to their work for testimony about his preparations for the day with Trump and members of Congress that the special counsel might not otherwise be able to obtain.

The issue for the special counsel is broadly whether the presiding officer at the joint session is protected by the clause, and if so, the extent of the protection for Pence in his preparations for assuming that role.

The crux of it is whether theyre going to treat him as a senator or representative whether he is covered by the text, said Steve Vladeck, a professor at the University of Texas School of Law.

But if you get past the threshold question, the historical distinction between legislative and political functions seems to put Pences behaviour on the legislative side of the line, Vladeck said, adding that the clause would probably be absolute for any deliberations Pence had about preparing for the joint session.

Pences lawyer would probably argue that not only is the joint session a legislative function as the justice department has said in prosecutions against low-level January 6 rioters but the presiding officer is more than just a ceremonial or ministerial role.

The logic comes in part from the fact that the presiding officer at the certification acts like the presiding officer when Congress is normally in session, or the chief justice during impeachment trials, adjudicating objections and complex parliamentary matters of procedure.

And if Pence can successfully show that he is covered by the speech or debate clause, legal experts said, supreme court precedent suggests the protection is absolute and cannot be overcome even by showing an overwhelming need for Pences testimony or underlying criminal activity.

So long as Pence is entitled to the protections of the immunity, there would be no way for the government to overcome that privilege where it applies, unlike executive privilege, said Stan Brand, the former general counsel to the House of Representatives and partner at Brand Woodward Law.

The supreme court ruled 8-1 in Eastland v United States Servicemens Fund (1975) that the clause was absolute when applied, superseding a 5-4 decision in Gravel v United States (1972) that the protection did not immunize a senator from testifying in cases involving third-party crimes.

The Gravel decision could be problematic for the special counsel, since the court separately found that Senator Mike Gravels preparation with his aide to introduce the Pentagon Papers into the congressional record was protected indicating acts in preparation for legislative activity are off-limits.

With Pence, those two cases could be particularly instructive, since the caselaw appears to fall squarely on what the special counsel is expected to want most from him: his deliberations with Trump and members of Congress about using objections and fake electors to overturn the election results.

And in United States v Helstoski (1979), the supreme court reiterated the absolute nature of the speech and debate clause for members, which prevented them from being questioned in any other place than Congress.

The 6-2 majority opinion in Helstoski in particular rebutted Justice John Paul Stevens assertion in dissent, that the admissibility of speech or debate should depend on the purpose for which it is offered, finding instead that the clause does not refer to the prosecutors purpose in offering evidence.

A potential exception to the speech or debate clause surfaced in United States v Brewster (1972) and later in Helstoski in 1979 for promises to take future legislative action.

But for Senator Daniel Brewster, who had been charged for soliciting and accepting bribes in exchange for introducing bills, the supreme court ruled that while the promise to accept a bribe was not covered, the legislative acts he undertook to complete his side of the arrangement voting, debating remained protected.

The court found only the illegal arrangement was not protected suggesting that the question of whether Trumps conduct was illegal would not strip Pence of the privilege against testifying.

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Mike Pence effort to block January 6 testimony could succeed, experts ...