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Catherine Nadeau was never a supporter of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, but as a resident of historically conservative Orange County she had never bothered to get involved in local politics either.

Donald Trumps surprise presidential win changed that.

This has been a wake-up call for me that its very important, that you need to vote locally, Nadeau, 48, said as she and two dozen district residents waved signs about climate change outside Rohrabachers office on a recent sunny Tuesday. I cant do anything about getting Trump out right now, but I can do something in the next 567 days to get this guy out.

Nadeau is among the newly energized residents giving Democrats hope they can claim at least some of the congressional seats in Orange County that have been red for a generation. Despite the vocal optimism from activists and local dissatisfaction with Trump, it will be an uphill battle for Democrats to flip the four heavily Republican congressional districts in Orange County, all but one of which the incumbent won in 2016 by double digits.

More than a dozen resistance groups have formed in Orange County since the presidential election. Theyve demanded meetings with the four Republican members of Congress, and staged town halls in their name when the members decline. Theyve delivered petitions and Valentines and even protested outside the members homes. Most Tuesdays, at least a few dozen people show up with signs outside district offices (some of which theyve been told they can no longer enter).

Theyre bolstered by the fact that last fall marked the first time Orange County chose a Democrat for president since 1936, a gradual decline in voters registering as Republicans and growing numbers of Latino and Asian voters.

So, 17 months before the 2018 election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is making Irvine ground zero for its efforts in western states, with a full-time staff member brought in to help with races.

The four targeted Republicans are Reps. Ed Royce of Fullerton, Mimi Walters of Irvine, Dana Rohrabacher of Huntington Beach and Darrell Issa of Vista. They have been among the most lambasted after Republicans voted to roll back the Affordable Care Act.

Though the minority party historically wins seats in midterm elections, the national Democratic Party faces a tough path to flip the 25 districts it needs to reclaim majority control of the House in 2018.

Fewer and fewer congressional districts are considered competitive, so districts where the political parties think they have a chance such as places where voters picked a member of Congress from one party and a president from another can expect to see a lot of action in the coming months. (Radio and online attack ads are already running in Orange County.)

Seven of the 23 congressional districts that sent a Republican to the House and also picked Hillary Clinton for president are in California.

They need to cast a wide net for opportunities, and as soon as Donald Trump lost Orange County that set off some sirens at the DCCC, said Nathan Gonzales, editor of the nonpartisan political analysis site Inside Elections.

Perhaps Republicans just didnt like Trump, Gonzales said. That doesn't make them liberals.

I just dont know that we can throw away a couple of generations of history, of election results, after one race, he said.

Except for president, Republicans won the majority of other races in Orange County, all the way down the ticket. The states voters rejected a ballot measure to require voter approval of revenue bonds, but the county voted 57.1% in favor. A vote signaling opposition to the Citizens United decision allowing money to flood into politics passed statewide but garnered just 46.6% in Orange County.

Republicans still lead voter registration here, though they make up less than 45% of registered voters in any of the targeted congressional districts.

Democrats have managed to narrow the registration gap over the last four years from 10 percentage points to 3.7 points, and they'll have to continue to chip away if they want to win seats. Almost a third of voters are registered as having no party preference, and Democrats are hoping to leverage independent voters to win. As one activist pointed out, the majority of voters in Orange County dont back the Republican Party, and might be willing to go in a new direction.

Orange County Democratic Party Chairwoman Fran Sdao said she has never experienced anything like this enthusiasm. The number of local Democratic clubs has nearly doubled since the election, and her phone rings off the hook with people asking what they can do to help.

I don't think any of us could have predicted this surge in interest," she said. Were kind of in uncharted territory."

Thats already attracted four Democrats challenging Rohrabacher, three in Walters district, two for Issa and one for Royce. Sdao said about a dozen more people have expressed interest in running.

Which candidate has the best chance to grab a Republican seat? Narrowing the field may be the most delicate part of Democrats balancing act. The national Democratic Party has a history in California of backing candidates who can raise a lot of money but dont always have strong local ties.

The first hints of that habit are popping up in Walters 45th District, where the national party appears more excited about UC Irvine associate law professor Dave Min over UC Irvine law professor Katie Porter, who has been active with the local resistance groups. Both Democrats have started making appearances at the protests outside of Walters office.

After this story was published, a spokesman for the DCCC said the party supports all the Democrats in the race. And at the local level, Sdao said Democrats arent picking favorites just yet. They just need to go out there and talk to people, Sdao said. Were just going to hope they weed themselves out a little bit.

Democratic strategist Mike Trujillo said Democrats have a better chance of flipping seats in the Central Valley, where theyve trained operatives and built a political infrastructure over years of challenging the regions Republicans. In 2016, voters reelected Reps. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and Jeff Denham (R-Turlock) but also backed Clinton for president.

I dont believe you have that same cohort of field organizers that have been trained in Mimi Walters district, or Dana Rohrabachers district, Trujillo said. When you have the infrastructure in place like we do in the Central Valley it just gives you the edge and it makes the chances of flipping those districts even better.

Democrats have to set their sights on more seats than they expect to win, and that probably includes some of the long-shot Orange County seats, he said.

You sort of have to over-target if we really want to flip the House. You cant just go after the 25 seats that we need, he said.

Flipping seats held by the other party for generations with 17 months of investment isnt a light lift, said California Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe.

In his Irvine law office, Orange County Republican Party Chairman Fred Whitaker seemed pleased by the idea of Democrats aiming to win local races.

Let them spend their money, Whitaker said with a laugh. If they are spending all their money here where were going to win, then that allows us to win in other places where Democrats might have a chance across the nation.

He noted that Rohrabacher won reelection in 2016 by 16.6%, Royce by 14.4% and Walters by 17.2%. Even in the closest race, where Issa eked out a win over a novice opponent with 0.6%, or 1,621 votes, the congressman performed strongly in the Orange County section of the district.

Whitaker also dismissed the activists as the same group of people moving from district office to district office.

Orange County doesnt respond real well to mass protests, Whitaker said. It does nothing but help us.

California 45th organizer Amy Stevens smiled at Whitakers take.

Thats OK. I would love for them to continue to think that way, because that will mean that they wont fight hard enough and it gives us an even better chance, the 43-year-old from Mission Viejo said.

Stevens joined two dozen people to march from Walters Irvine office to a nearby intersection to wave signs. At protests throughout the county, people told the same story: They didnt realize how many of their neighbors were frustrated with Republicans until after the election and the womens marches that took many by surprise the day after the inauguration.

Stevens, a lifelong Democrat, said she respected Walters experience as a local volunteer and even voted for the Republican in her first race.

We were all really complacent before this election, thinking that we lived in safety and things werent that bad in Orange County, Stevens said. People who lived here just sort of assumed it was red and the Democratic Party assumed it was red too. I dont think there was very much effort made to make any change.

sarah.wire@latimes.com

Follow @sarahdwire on Twitter

Read more about the 55 members of California's delegation at latimes.com/politics

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Updates on California politics

UPDATES:

9:45 a.m.: This article was updated with a comment from the DCCC on the 45th District candidates.

This article was originally published at 12:05 a.m.

Read more:
Jolted by Trump, Orange County Democrats see a shot at victory on GOP turf - Los Angeles Times

Congressional Democrats have unified around calls for an independent investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election, but theyre split over whether to talk publicly about the possibility that President Trump will face impeachment.

Party leaders have warned against getting ahead of the facts. But Trumps abrupt decision to fire FBI Director James Comey, and allegations that Trump pressured Comey to drop a federal investigation into former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn have pushed some Democratic lawmakers to go further. A small but vocal group of lawmakers are now either explicitly calling for Trump to be impeached, or suggesting that impeachment may loom in the not-so-distant future.

On Wednesday morning, Democratic Representative Al Green of Texas took the dramatic step of publicly urging Trumps impeachment in a speech on the House floor. The president must be impeached, he said, alleging obstruction of justice as his reason.

Last week, Trump fired Comey, who was then the official charged with overseeing the bureaus investigation into potential links between Trump associates and the Russian government. The White House initially claimed Comey was dismissed over conduct during the 2016 election related to the FBIs investigation into former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. But two days later, the president told NBC News that he thought to himself this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story, when he made the decision.

Then on Tuesday, the New York Times reported that Trump attempted to halt the FBIs investigation into Flynn, who was ousted after falsely asserting he had not discussed sanctions with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak. The White House has denied that the president ever told Comey to end the investigation.

For now, a number of unanswered questions remain. Initial reports that Trump attempted to halt an investigation into Flynn cited a memo created by Comey that has not yet surfaced publicly. There are currently efforts underway in Congress to find out exactly what did happen between Trump and Comey.

The House Oversight Committee, as well as the Senate Intelligence Committee, and the Senate Judiciary Committee, have requested the Comey memos, and the former FBI director has been asked to testify in front of Congress. It may take some time before a fuller picture emerges of exactly what transpired. And as colleague Matt Ford has noted, legal scholars have emphasized that more information, and further investigation, would be necessary to conclude that the president had obstructed justice.

In his floor speech, Green, however, offered this summary of events: We are talking about a president who fired the FBI director who was investigating the president for his connections to Russian involvement in the presidents election.

Democratic party leaders, however, have not joined in the call for impeachment, and are actively warning against invoking the concept without first understanding exactly what transpired between the president and the former FBI director.

Thats not something that we should be rushing into, or rushing to suggest, Representative Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, which is also probing Russian involvement in the election, told CNN in an interview, adding that would be a wrenching experience for the country.

Though even in arguing for a thorough accounting before rushing to judgement, Schiff engaged in speculation: We need to get to the bottom of what took place ... Was he trying to shut down a legitimate prosecution? Was he doing it because ultimately he was worried the trail might lead back to him?

Dianne Feinstein, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, has also reportedly urged caution, arguing that the I-word should be off the table for now, as The Daily Beasts Tim Mak put it on Wednesday.

Despite the message from the Democratic leadership that its too early to talk impeachment, at least some Democrats, particularly in the House, believe theres no need to wait.

Democratic Representative Maxine Waters has been publicly raising the possibility of impeachment for some time now. On Tuesday, Waters argued that Democrats shouldnt be afraid to use the word impeachment, at a conference hosted by the left-leaning think tank the Center for American Progress, and delved into the topic again.

Waters noted, however, that shes gotten pushback for bringing it up. This president is one that I have focused on in ways that some people say, oh my god, she said the word impeachment, oh my goodness its too soon to say that, Waters said. But, she added, we dont have to think impeachment is out of our reach.

The risk for the Democratic Party is that the more its lawmakers invoke the idea of impeachment, the more frequently Democrats who dont want to talk about the possibility will be asked to weigh in. Democrats facing tough reelection races in red states and conservative congressional districts in the 2018 midterms may prefer not to answer that question.

If Democrats get too far out ahead in making claims about what they believe investigations into Russian involvement in the election may produce, they risk losing credibility if the evidence that emerges dont support the charges they make, or the speculation they engage in.

Its not just House Democrats wading into a discussion about impeachment.

On Tuesday, Independent Senator Angus King was asked on CNN if Congress could be moving toward impeachment. Reluctantly I have to say yes, simply because obstruction of justice is such a serious offense, he said, though he later sought to clarify that, telling Maine reporters, there are a lot of facts that we need to establish.

Even Republican Representative Justin Amash of Michigan has invoked impeachment, telling reporters that if Comey memo allegations are true, its grounds for impeachment, according to The Hills Katie Bo Williams.

In an interview on Monday, House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi took pains to argue that she doesnt subscribe to talking about impeachment absent a clear case.

If youre talking about impeachment, youre talking about, what are the facts?, she said during a CNN town hall event on Monday, prior to the report that Trump attempted to intervene in the Flynn investigation. What are the facts that you would make a case on? What are the rules that he may have violated? If you dont have that case, youre just participating in more hearsay.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has similarly called for sticking to the facts. My view is we need a thorough investigation and we need to get all the facts and then well come to conclusions. Our step now is to get a thorough investigation, he said on Tuesday.

Original post:
Democrats Are Split Over Impeachment - The Atlantic

A who's who of prospects for the Democratic 2020 presidential nomination -- none declared, of course, but none ruling national ambitions out, either -- will appear at a daylong event hosted by the Center for American Progress.

The liberal think tank's first-ever "Ideas Conference" is poised to allow those vying to lead the party to test-drive their economic messages and arguments a year and a half before any of them would actually have to head to Iowa and New Hampshire to campaign.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is set to deliver the lunchtime keynote, while New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker will deliver the closing speech. Also on tap -- and seen as potential 2020 candidates -- are New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy and Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley.

From the executive ranks, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will open the event, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper are also set for speaking roles.

Other leading Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, liberal mega-donor Tom Steyer, Gold Star father Khizr Khan and influential activists are slated to appear.

The event comes as the Democratic Party -- energized by a protest movement unlike anything the party has seen for decades -- searches for new voices at its forefront.

Former President Barack Obama has departed the political stage for now, and former Vice President Joe Biden told a crowd recently that he will not run in 2020.

It's left Democrats facing a nominating contest much more like 2004, when John Kerry emerged from a wide-open field, or 2008, when Obama bested Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, than recent contests with well-established incumbents or front-runners.

By this stage in those cycles, prospective candidates "were working pretty hard at it" behind the scenes, said Bob Shrum, a veteran of Democratic campaigns, including Al Gore's in 2000 and Kerry's in 2004.

"There's a lot more happening behind the scenes in terms of folks maneuvering to line up fundraisers, political talent, how they're going to put a campaign together," Shrum said.

So at a cattle call like Tuesday's, he said, "you want to do well."

"First of all, you have to stand up to Trump -- visibly, consistently and cogently -- on everything from health care to tax fairness to the Russia investigation," he said. "Two, articulate a compelling message on economic and social justice, and you can't choose one over the other."

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has by far the largest megaphone of any Democrat -- and his massive email list built in 2016 would give him a huge fundraising advantage. But Sanders would also be 79 years old on Election Day 2020.

For other potential candidates, the 2018 midterm cycle is more important. It's an opportunity to curry favor with House members and senators on the ballot this cycle by campaigning and raising money for them while also elevating their own profiles and meeting local party honchos, said Mitch Stewart, a founding partner of 270 Strategies and a veteran of Obama's campaigns.

Stewart argued cattle calls are "less important now" than they were in 2004 and 2008 -- in part because social media tools like Twitter allow more opportunities for potential candidates to reach wide swaths of the party's electorate. He pointed to Booker's Twitter account during his tenure as Newark mayor as an example.

But events like Tuesday's also offer potential candidates opportunities to test-drive a message that reaches beyond an energetic base, Stewart said.

"What I haven't really seen any of the potential Democratic candidates do is put out a positive message that can try to break the bond that Trump has with some of his voters," he said.

"And I think right now, it's just good to have activism, it's good to have energy," he said. "But at some point, a candidate's going to have to channel that energy into something a bit more constructive and talk about how Democrats offer a different economic vision that can peel off some of these voters that were sort of duped by Trump."

Read more from the original source:
Democrats set for first view of potential 2020 candidates - CNN

New York Times

Young Black Democrats, Eager to Lead From the Left, Eye Runs in 2018 New York Times In states from Massachusetts to Florida, a phalanx of young black leaders in the Democratic Party is striding into some of the biggest elections of 2018, staking early claims on governorships and channeling the outcry of rank-and-file Democrats who ... and more »

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Young Black Democrats, Eager to Lead From the Left, Eye Runs in 2018 - New York Times

Many top Democrats are furious that Bernie Sanders appears to be running for president again, or at least planning to drag out his decision long enough to freeze the race around him.

Hes frustrating alumni of his 2016 campaign, some of whom would like him to run again, by showing no interest in raising early money or locking down lower level staff moves they say would indicate he recognizes the need for a different kind of campaign operation in 2020. Outside of his tighter-than-ever inner circle, friends and staffers whod be happy to back him again say they rarely, if ever, speak to Sanders these days.

Story Continued Below

Sanders hasnt made any decision, and he tends to dismiss the discussion about 2020 as dumb. He hasn't even fully committed to running for re-election to the Senate next year.

Weighing on him throughout it all and clouding his outlook, people close to him say, is the toll on his family from the ongoing FBI investigation into potential bank fraud at the small Vermont college where his wife was the president.

But the senator, wholl be 79 the next time the New Hampshire primary rolls around, is continuing to put himself at the center of the conversation. Hes introduced a Medicare-for-all bill this week that he hopes will force others to sign on. Hes joining Ohio Gov. John Kasich for a CNN town hall tonight thats being held on the evening of the Center for American Progress forward-looking Ideas Conference an event Sanders wasnt invited to. Some of his moves, like collecting names and email addresses via RSVPs to his unity tour with new Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez for his Friends of Bernie Sanders group a mailing list the DNC itself wont have any access to have alienated his allies on the left.

The fact that Tom Perez has given Sanders a platform without Sanders genuinely agreeing to work toward unity has made a mockery of the whole process and literally divided the party more than it was before the tour began. It has been a disaster, said Markos Moulitsas, the founder of the influential liberal Daily Kos site. Yes, Perez and company are clearly afraid of Sanders and his followers, but letting Sanders make a mockery of the party doesnt exactly help it build in the long haul.

"He's a constant reminder. He allows the healing that needs to take place to not take place, said one longtime senior party official, who like others, remains too worried about appearing to oppose Sanders to speak on the record.

Former DNC chair Donna Brazile warned party leaders against relying on Sanders, unless theyre willing to give in on opening the party to more independents like he wants.

"He's not someone who we should go to, to build or rebuild or expand our party unless he's willing," she said.

Sanders, who has re-registered as an independent and made a point of asserting that independence while he was on tour with Perez, is nonetheless the most popular Democrat and the most popular active politician in the country. Hes savoring it, whether in the stops hes planning to make this weekend in Montana for Democratic House candidate Rob Quist, or his trip to Iowa, home of the caucuses he nearly won, on July 15 for the Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement's "action convention.

Jeff Weaver, Sanders 2016 campaign manager and now the president of his Our Revolution group, still speaks with the senator all the time. He dismissed any speculation about 2020 as ridiculously early, but added that the door is wide open, and said those who worry about how he might tilt the party need to wake up.

What is their goal, some kind of defense of the Democratic Partys newfound centrism? If thats what theyre looking to do, I guess that they would consider it a disaster. If they want to win the White House, I think it would be a good thing, Weaver said.

That's a similar message to the one Weaver delivered to a private caucus meeting of Senate Democrats early this year, when he warned those up for re-election in 2018 against centrism, raising eyebrows in the room, according to Democrats present for the presentation.

But at a time other and far less famous potential 2020 contenders are speaking with operatives about what their campaigns might look like and gathering allies by raising money for colleagues, Sanders' push is far more oriented toward defining Democrats' message in public.

In Congress, a number of up-and-comers say theyre glad to see Sanders pushing the party toward an economic focus, and away from the social issues of Hillary Clintons failed Stronger Together. Those voices, and the people who show up by the thousands still at Sanders stops around the country, are the ones the gripers should be focused on, his supporters say not nursing old grudges or complaining that Sanders would torpedo their chances.

Starting with healthcare-focused rallies in January that he encouraged Senate Democratic leaders to do more widely, Sanders continues traveling the country. Hes also using his newfound celebrity to elevate local-level fights like a unionization drive in Mississippi and the candidacy of Virginia gubernatorial candidate Tom Perriello, whose effort is being managed by one of his former top staffers.

Touring the country with Perez, Sanders sought to stamp his economic populism on the head of the DNC. But people familiar with the arrangement said he also spent much of the time traveling with the party chair on their private Gulfstream jet getting to learn about Perezs personal history, which he hadn't bothered to read up on earlier.

For years, our fellow activists on the left have said we need an antidote to the tea party. This is what an antidote to the tea party looks like, said former NAACP President Ben Jealous an Our Revolution board member at the groups meeting in Maryland last month.

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Sanders loyalists say theyre eager to stir up the internal fight that they say the party needs to have. To Sanders, its the natural next step in his pursuit of the 40-year-old goal of upending the established political system, which they see millions of voters having supported last year. And each passing day of the Trump administration, along with the Democrats resistance, has vindicated his belief that substantive change can come when masses rise up.

Our party is divided into various wings, and Bernie clearly represents one of those wings. It is a progressive, activist, economic populist wing to the party, said Mark Longabaugh, one of the top strategists for the 2016 campaign, who said hes among those whod be ready to sign up again. The rest of the party still hasnt wrapped its mind around it.

Longabaugh, who very early into Sanders last run drew up the plan that mapped a path through New Hampshire, Minnesota, a surprise Michigan win and overpowering Clinton in the caucus states, said he hasnt written anything yet for 2020.

First of all, you have to confess were not together. You can have a unity tour until the cows come home, but theres a divide in the party, said former Ohio state Senator Nina Turner, another Our Revolution board member.

Sanders sees everything hes doing as maximizing his sway in the Senate, using the speculation to build his center of gravity. To the extent he has thought about 2020, he hasnt gotten into how different the race would likely be if its a packed field, rather than the binary choice of 2016.

If he were to run again, he would almost certainly be by far the most famous entrant, dominating the left and sucking up far more television coverage than he did before. But he would also have four years' worth of new baggage to contend with, including barbs from Clinton allies who still quietly blame him for her loss.

Staffers and aides are willing to give him time, for now. But they worry that Sanders wont decide until too late for many of them to be able to go to other campaigns if he sits 2020 out, and that frustrates them. They worry that he hasnt processed what really running again would entail, and is convinced it would be lightning in a bottle again.

From the senior leadership on down, one of the biggest problems we faced was not enough middle management who knew that and now he has a real opportunity to lock those people down now, whether through Our Revolution or his Senate campaign, and there doesnt appear to be any effort to do that, said one member of his 2016 campaign.

If he doesnt run, progressives are hoping he doesnt turn the Democratic primary race into a two-year long audition for his seal of approval.

Having that dangling question out there can be a little frustrating, said one Democratic Senate staffer. If hes not going to wind up doing it, is there an issue of an heir apparent, or is it just, This is my thing, Ive built this, I take it with me. Thats kind of disrespectful to the cause that rallied around him.

Every once in a while you realize that he is in fact an independent, with the good and the bad that comes with it, the staffer added.

I would quote Robert Frost, said Larry Cohen, the chairman of Our Revolutions board and one of the DNC Unity Commission leaders, referring to Sanders' attempt to remake the party in his image. We have miles to go before we sleep.

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Democrats divide on Bernie's 2020 plans - Politico