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Democrats in California have signed up tens of thousands of new voters in recent months, but a big question in Tuesday's election is whether enough of them will cast ballots to stave off erosion of the party's dominance in the state.

The new voters, many of them Latino or Asian, are heavily concentrated in fiercely contested legislative districts in Orange and Ventura counties, the South Bay, and the Antelope and San Joaquin valleys. Fearing that a national election climate favoring Republicans could cost them legislative seats, Democrats dispatched hundreds of troops to register new voters in those areas.

Adding to Democrats' worries have been a lackluster governor's race and a menu of less-than-alluring ballot measures, all but ensuring a low-turnout election which typically draws a disproportionately large share of older white voters who lean Republican.

"There's nothing sexy on the ballot," said Sergio Carrillo, an advisor to Democrat Tony Mendoza in his pitched battle for an eastern Los Angeles County state Senate seat that would normally be out of reach for Republicans.

Most Democrats running for statewide office Gov. Jerry Brown, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris among them appear to have little to fear Tuesday, polls show. The party's secretary of state candidate, state Sen. Alex Padilla of Pacoima, is the one who appears to face the most serious challenge from a Republican rival, Pepperdine University think tank director Pete Peterson.

Democrats are also certain to maintain a strong majority of the state's congressional delegation, although a few of the most hard-fought U.S. House races in the country are in California. Voters in San Diego, Ventura and Sacramento counties have been swamped by mail and other advertising in those contests.

But Republicans are all but sure to maintain their House majority; the question is by how big a margin.

The stakes are arguably higher in the California Legislature. Democrats are trying to regain their two-thirds supermajority in the Senate and maintain the one they have in the Assembly. A supermajority enables Democrats to raise taxes and put some ballot measures before voters with no Republican support, among other things.

Republicans acknowledge the Democrats' heavy investment in registration drives could prove a formidable threat Tuesday but not if the new voters don't bother to cast ballots.

"The biggest obstacle for them remains: Can they get those new voters to the polls?" said Peter DeMarco, a spokesman for state Senate Republican leader Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar).

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Democrats sign up thousands of new voters, but will they cast ballots?

The final Senate polls are out and Democrats look to be on the ropes going into Tuesdays election. Republicans, of course, need a net pickup of six seats and it looks like they are closer to getting just that. They may even get one or two more. A poll or two can be wrong; seldom are they all wrong all at once. Nonetheless, many of the polls are close and there are last minute factors that can change things.

The most notable fly in the ointment for the GOP and the deus ex machina for the Democrats is the vaunted voter identification and turnout operation that the Democrats are known for. Polls show that more Republican likely voters are enthusiastic about voting than Democratic likely voters. But the polls also show that there are simply more Democrats than Republicans. So call that one equal. Hence, the polls are showing close races. Independents are sending us clear messages that they are leaning Republican but are mainly fed up with both parties and pretty much everything. Independents, it appears, will be the only Americans relieved when television returns to advertising by used car and furniture businesses.

It has been very clear for months that this election and the final two years of the Obama administration will turn on the health of the Obama coalition. If the Democrats can bring young people and non-whites out to vote, not necessarily in numbers that match their turnouts in 2008 and 2012 but at least in higher numbers than 2010, they can hold on to the Senate. Even in 2010, when turnouts nationwide of these essential groups in the Democratic coalition were down considerably, efforts to increase their presence in the polls in some states actually made a difference. Senator Michael Bennett of Colorado was behind in just about every pre-election statewide poll before the election, but an over 70% turnout of Hispanics and over 80% support from them put him over the top. The same kind of Hispanic turnouts and support were critical in the victories of Senators Harry Reid of Nevada and Barbara Boxer of California.

Early voting seems to suggest that the Democrats have some reason to hope for better returns than the polls indicate. As I write this, African American turnout thus far in both Georgia and North Carolina is higher than normal. That clearly boosts the chances of North Carolinas Senator Kay Hagan and Georgias Michelle Nunn. Early voting returns in Iowa and Colorado indicate a significantly higher turnout among voters who did not vote in 2010, suggesting that many of those are younger and non-white. On the flip side, however, the latest round of polls in Iowa show Republican Joni Ernst with a 7 point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley, while the latest in Colorado has Republican Cory Gardner now leading incumbent Senator Mark Udall by 4 points. If those polls are right, then even a superb Democratic voter turnout machine is at a great disadvantage. (For the record: Ann Seltzer conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register. Her record is spotless but some experts are scratching their heads at her latest poll showing Ernst leading 51% to 44%. But Ann is a very good pollster and the experts are nothing without good pollsters.)

I wont make predictions. If the Democrats have this superior turnout machine, it better be very good on Tuesday. Very very good.

A final note about this campaign. Voters want problem-solving and consensus-building. But they also want authenticity. How can Democrats run against (or at least deny) their own party leader the President of the United States and think they can win? This is very curious especially when he and his First Lady are the only people who can rally the partys base? The GOP has been at least true to itself by saying we are not Obama, but offering little else. History will probably be kind to Mr. Obama for turning an economy around, ending two wars, making huge strides for equal pay for women, and advancing the rights of gay Americans. The message of income inequality was a good one and got drowned out when Democratic campaigners decided to reject their most effective messenger.

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For Democrats It's Either Turnout or Burnout

On the last day of the 2014 campaign, Democrats knew they were in trouble.

Long ago, the party had given up hope of winning back the House in Tuesdays midterm elections. By Monday, it had skipped ahead to winning the post-election blame game. House Democrats have succeeded on every measure within our control, the partys House campaign committee announced preemptively in the early afternoon.

And at the end of a bitter and massively expensive campaign, it appeared the Senate might be slipping from Democrats grasp as well.

In all, there are 13 states where Senate seats might change from one party to the other. Republicans need to win nine of them to attain a 51-seat majority in the Senate for the first time since 2007. On Monday, Republicans seem to be leading, by a lot or by a little, in eight of those races.

If the GOP wins all those eight, they will need just one more win one of the toss-up races in Alaska and Kansas, or perhaps the runoff race thats expected in Louisiana.

The Fixs Chris Cillizza breaks down how close the battle for the Senate really is. (The Washington Post)

Victory is in the air, declared Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the Senate minority leader who is set to become majority leader if the Republicans take over. McConnell was beginning the last swing of his own reelection campaign against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.

Like other contests around the country, that race seemed to be tilting toward Republicans in the last days. Lets go out there and sock it to them! the usually subdued McConnell said in closing, as a loudspeaker started blasting out Eye of the Tiger.

There also will be gubernatorial elections Tuesday in 36 states, including Florida, Massachusetts, Kansas, Maine and Wisconsin, where potential presidential candidate Scott Walker (R) is in a close race to keep his position. Republicans, who already control a majority of the countrys state legislative chambers, seem likely to win several more.

But the nights big prize is the U.S. Senate.

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Math is forbidding for Democrats in struggle for Senate

If the Senate goes Republican on Tuesday, a majority of Democrats will get their first taste of life in the minority.

Only 17 Democrats who could serve in the next Senate were in office eight years ago, the last time the GOP held the levers of power.

"It will be a shock for Democrats to move into the minority," said Jim Manley, a former spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).

The indignities of serving under the opposing party are legion.

The first blow is the loss of committee chairmanships, which senators use to draft legislation, conduct oversight and draw attention to pet causes.

Democrats would be demoted to the ranking members of committees and forced to downsize by letting go of staffers who arent wanted on the new majoritys payroll.

Perhaps worst of all, some Democrats would have to pack up their things as Republicans dole out the spoils of office space.

Thats a major issue for many senior members, said Bill Hoagland, a former Republican budget staffer and now senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Still, its better to be in the minority in the Senate than in House, where the floor is tightly controlled and rank-and-file members can often do little more than raise their voice in protest during floor speeches.

The Senate, in contrast, runs on consensus, giving individual senators the power to hold up legislation, block nominees, and occasionally hold up business with an old-fashioned talking filibuster.

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Democrats could face culture shock

Dallas County Democrats had grand hopes for this election.

Though its the middle of a presidential term, when Republicans typically do better, Democrats were banking on a robust voter turnout for several reasons most notably the gubernatorial campaign of Wendy Davis.

The state senator from Fort Worth hoped to increase the Democratic share of the vote here from the 55 percent achieved by Bill White in 2010 to at least 58 percent. Though she may still hit that, the raw total of votes will be far from what she needs to have a chance against Republican Greg Abbott.

Early voting in Dallas County dipped by 5 percent from the 2010 total, Elections Administrator Toni Pippins-Poole said Monday. Now, Democrats arent as confident of local victories as they otherwise might be. Some close county contests could be decided by a slew of unknown voters the parties arent familiar with. They generally come from Republican areas but could have been brought to the process by Davis.

Democrats have unleashed a furious voter-contact program led by the political arm of the Texas Organizing Project, with part of that money coming from Davis.

But for this election cycle, Democrats have been beset by disunity, bickering and coasting by the partys well-known candidates.

Though they dont talk about it publicly, the local party has never been on the same page with Battleground Texas, the group of former Barack Obama field organizers charged with the task of making Texas competitive.

The group forged its own path and was instrumental in boosting Democratic statehouse candidates like Leigh Bailey in House District 108, Carol Donovan in House District 107 and Susan Motley in House District 105. And, of course, its main objective is to get Davis elected governor.

Democrats grumble that the local party was left with the challenge of turning out base voters even though it had far less money for voter turnout than it did in 2010. They complain that Battleground Texas did not share all of its data on voters with the local Democratic Party.

Such information is useful in targeting voters with messages theyre likely to respond to, determining whos most likely to support Democratic candidates and helping get them to the polls. Local party officials and Battleground leaders could not reach a compromise this summer to share the information, people with knowledge of their meetings say.

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Jeffers: Disunity dogged Dallas County Democrats this election season