The Fix: How Democrats are winning the ad wars in 2 charts
Over the final 18 days of the 2014 campaign, Republicans are set to outspend Democrats on ads inseven of the top 11 Senate races in the country.
In only four of those races, though, will the GOP actually putmore ads on the air.
One of the less-publicized realities ofthe 2014 Senate campaign is that, while both parties are spending hundreds of millions of dollarsof money trying to secure the majority, Democrats are getting considerably more bang for their buck. And down the stretch, they figure to have at least a slight advertising advantage in most of the key races -- despite being outspent overall.
That's according to data compiled by Echelon Insights, a Republican research and analytics firmthat has launched an effort to predict futuread spendingusing Federal Communications Commission data. (This, we would emphasize, is an inexact science, so keep in mind that these are estimates.)
Here's the breakdown, both on total dollars being spent(on top) and on actual ads set to run(on bottom):
You'll notice in Alaska, for example, that Republicans figure to spend more than 72 percent of the ad dollars in the final few weeks. Despite that spending advantage, though, they will run less than half the ads, according to thesedata.
There's a similar disparity in Arkansas, though the GOP still figures to run slightly more ads than Democrats there. In fact, in only two of the races above are Republicans getting more bang for their buck than Democrats, and those two states areMichigan and Virginia, which aren't really top-tier contests.
So why the disparity betweendollars spent and ads run?
1) The number of ads run isn't quite the same thing as the number of people reached by ads. You can run a bunch of ads in Grand Junction, Colo., for example, for the same price as one ad in Denver. So looking at raw numbers of ads doesn't necessarily mean Democrats will reach more people with their ads. (At the same time, it's likely both sides spend relativelysimilar portions of their ad dollarsin big markets vs. small markets across the country, so it's still a valuable measure.)
2) Candidates get lower ad rates than outside groups, and incumbents tend to raise more money than challengers. Given Democrats have so many incumbents in theraces above (nine) and Republicans have just two, that means Democrats tend to benefit more from lower rates for candidates.
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The Fix: How Democrats are winning the ad wars in 2 charts