Sweden: Far-right make huge election gains
Video ID: 20140915-004 M/S Audience celebrating first prognosis W/S Audience celebrating first prognosis C/U First prognosis chart M/S Jimmie Akesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats enters...
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Sweden: Far-right make huge election gains - Video
Malzberg | John Fund to discuss the "desperation of the Democrats" heading into the midterms
Newsmax contributor and National-Affairs columnist for National Review Online joins Steve to discuss the "desperation of the Democrats" heading into the midt...
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Malzberg | John Fund to discuss the "desperation of the Democrats" heading into the midterms - Video
Pelosi: We never treated Bush the way Republicans treat Obama
VIDEO: Nancy Pelosi Claims Dems Never Treated Bush the Way the GOP Treats Obama In an interview with MSNBC Ronan Farrow 9/15/2014, Nancy Pelosi said that there is no equivalency between Democrats...
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Pelosi: We never treated Bush the way Republicans treat Obama - Video
Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.
Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders led by George Washington University's John Sides warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling as opposed to historical projections played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)
So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:
* Colorado: On Aug. 27 the last time I wrote a big piece on the model Election Lab said Sen. Mark Udall (D) had a 64 percent chance of winning. Today he has a 94 percent chance.
* Iowa: Two weeks ago, the model gave state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) a 72 percent chance of winning. Today she has a 59 percent chance.
* Kansas: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts's reelection race wasn't even on the radar on Aug. 27. Today, Election Lab predicts that he has just a 68 percent chance of winning.
In addition to that trio of moves in Democrats' direction, Louisiana has moved slightly in Democrats' favor (from a 57 percent chance of losing to a 53 percent chance), as has North Carolina (a 97 percent chance of winning now as opposed to a 92 percent chance on Aug. 27).
By contrast, Alaska has moved in Republicans' direction (Democratic Sen. Mark Begich's chances of winning are down from 66 percent to 53 percent), and Georgia has become more of a sure-thing hold (a 91 percent GOP win vs. an 84 percent hold).
The movement toward Democrats in the Election Lab model isn't unique. LEO, the New York Times' Upshot model, gives Republicans a 51 percent chance of winning the Senate but that is down significantly over the past few weeks.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model now has Republican chances of winning the Senate at 55 percent, down from 64 percent 12 days ago. "The two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats direction," Silver writes. "That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast."
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The Fix: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
President Obama makes his way across the South Lawn upon return to the White House on September 12, 2014 in Washington, DC. Obama was in Baltimore, Maryland to visit Fort McHenry and to attend a fundraiser. MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images
President Obama plans to hit the campaign trail to help congressional Democrats this fall, although low polling numbers will likely limit the number of public appearances he plans.
Senior administration officials said that he will begin his campaign efforts in October, sometime in October, just one month before the election, according to The Hill newspaper. But the officials portrayed Mr. Obama's campaign plans as more limited than former President George W. Bush, who delivered more than 40 speeches for congressional candidates during the 2002 midterm elections.
A CBS News poll from early August shows that just 40 percent of Americans approve of the way the president is handling the economy, and that number drops to 36 percent when they are asked about his foreign policy record. Just 41 percent of Americans approve of his job performance overall, a number that has been fairly consistent over the past year.
So far, Mr. Obama's role has been mostly limited to fundraising for the candidates in an attempt to limit his exposure. He has headlined more than 40 events to raise money for Democrats, with more on the calendar.
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The latest battleground tracker from CBS News/New York Times Upshot shows Republicans remain more likely to control the Senate in the next Congre...
A number of Democrats are locked in tight Senate races in states where Mr. Obama is already unpopular, and are looking for ways to create distance from him rather than a close embrace in their campaigns.
Still, the officials said they are feeling more optimistic about Democrats' prospects of holding the Senate now than they did a month ago, according to The Hill, and said there is a clear way for their party to retain control of the Senate because the close races remain within the margin of error.
The White House seems optimistic about the prospects of holding onto the open Senate seat in Michigan, which is beign vacated by the retirement of Democrat Carl Levin. They also see Democratic Sens. Mark Begich of Alaska and Kay Hagan of North Carolina holding onto their narrow leads, and a possible victory for Rep. Bruce Braley in the race for the open Iowa Senate seat.
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Democrats to get campaign help from Obama - if they want it