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What’s at stake for Canada as pig virus spreads

The ailment that swept through the U.S. driving up pork, ham and bacon prices is gaining a foothold here. Farmers are fearful, and with good reason. Here is all you need to know about the killer virus:

What is PED?

Porcine epidemic diarrhea is a virus that kills suckling piglets, usually within five days. Older hogs are weakened and lose weight, but do not die in large numbers. It does not affect humans nor does it affect food safety. Considering that pigs produce just two litters a year, a PED attack can be devastating.

Will this affect my grocery bill?

Consumers in the United States are paying more for pork as a result of PED, and it is expected Canadian consumers will, too. Since its discovery, the virus has helped drive up bacon prices in the United States by about 15 per cent as it reduced the number of animals going to slaughter by about 1 per cent. There are predictions the 2014 U.S. herd could be cut by 3 per cent, and prices will rise more as people fire up their barbecues when the weather gets warmer. The virus hit when supply was already low; hog producers had culled their herds during 2011-2012 after a major drought drove up the cost of animal feed. (Consumers looking to beef for better prices might be disappointed. Cattle ranchers are also rebuilding post-drought. Wholesale beef prices in the United States have risen by 15 per cent in January.)

How widespread is PED?

Since being discovered in the United States last spring, the fast-spreading virus has been found in about 23 states and has killed between one million and four million pigs. In Canada, PED has been confirmed in a slaughterhouse in Quebec, and in Ontario at farms, one processing plant, a trucking facility and a yard where hogs are gathered for transport. Officials expect it to spread to other hog operations. (PED has been present in Asia and Europe for decades, and the strain in North America is believed to have come from China.)

How does it spread?

PED is passed through manure-to-mouth contact. The virus thrives in the cold and is easily carried on dirty boots, in hog transport trailers or manure pumping equipment. It can be spread by birds and other livestock that come in contact with manure-spread fields. Canada exports pigs to the United States and imports very few, so it is believed the virus came to Canada on an empty truck that had not been thoroughly cleaned.

What is being done to prevent its spread?

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What’s at stake for Canada as pig virus spreads

Threatwatch: Mother virus of China’s deadly bird flu

Threatwatch is your early warning system for global dangers, from nuclear peril to deadly viral outbreaks. Debora MacKenzie highlights the threats to civilisation and suggests solutions

Exactly 10 years after H5N1 bird flu exploded across south-east Asia, the virus is still widespread, and has been joined by new killer types of bird flu. Human cases of H7N9 flu are surging in south-east China, and a new type of bird flu, H10N8, has claimed its second human victim, in the same region.

Now it seems that all of these viruses stem from a single, mother virus. Targeting it might stop it from spawning new, deadly viruses in the future.

Few people have heard of H9N2, but this virus was crucial in giving rise to the three dangerous bird flu viruses that have emerged so far in China H5N1, H7N9 and H10N8.

None of these viruses has yet evolved the ability to spread readily in people and potentially trigger a pandemic although we know H5N1 can, and H7N9 and H10N8 seem similar. But even if those viruses never go rogue, their cousins might, because the real problem is their common ancestor, which endowed them with the genes that make them dangerous.

"H9N2 is the enabler, the one to worry about," Robert Webster of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, told New Scientist. Bird flu is usually a gut infection in ducks, but H9N2 has evolved into a benign respiratory virus in chickens that has spread across Eurasia. When multiple flu viruses infect the same host, they can swap genes. They may be named for their various H and N surface proteins, but H5N1, H7N9 and H10N8 all got some or all of their "internal" genes from H9N2.

Those genes for the enzymes that replicate the viral genome, for example, or a protein that confuses a host's immune system can make these viruses dangerous, says Webster. Any of them might become pandemic if they acquire the right mutations to spread in people or hybridise with a normal human flu.

Closing Asia's ubiquitous live poultry markets would be the key to controlling N9N2, says Webster, as this is where H9N2 and its spin-off viruses spread, mingle and evolve and where humans catch them.

That is just what China is trying to do. As millions celebrate Lunar New Year this week with home-slaughtered poultry, Shanghai and three other cities have shut their live markets and officials are urging people to eat pre-slaughtered, frozen birds. The continued threat from China's bird flu may depend on whether that catches on. "It's the Year of the Horse in China," says Webster. "I hope they can get the stable door closed before the horse has bolted."

H7N9 emerged in south-east China last spring, infecting 136 people, a third of whom died. In response, Chinese flu scientists called for live poultry markets to be shut last April. Some were but they were re-opened when flu cases dropped in the following months.

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Threatwatch: Mother virus of China's deadly bird flu

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