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OK, so it might be a bit premature to get that "New Pittsburgh" tattoo after all.

That's one of the nagging doubts some progressives went to bed with last night, after Tuesday's Democratic primary resulted in defeats for both Tom Michalow and state Rep. Erin Molchany. Both candidates were running in city/suburb hybrid districts, against familiar Democratic names. Molchany was squaring off against Harry Readshaw, a 10-term incumbent into whose South Hills district Molchany was drawn; Michalow was battling North Side Rep. Adam Ravenstahl, a two-term rep and brother of Pittsburgh's former mayor.

And for progressives, what may be most worrisome is not whether they lost, but how:

It was enough to make some know-it-all Wednesday morning quarterbacks wonder: Could progressives have won Michalow's race if they'd invested a bit more of the energy they put into Molchany's? (There's an even darker possibility, of course: What if Michalow did better because he didn't have as much progressive "help"?)

It's not that everyone was blindsided by Tuesday's results. I've been told by various sources that Molchany's campaign had internal polling which showed that she faced a steep uphill climb: Her drubbing on Tuesday was actually not quite as bad as her own polling predicted it could be. Campaign consultant Matt Merriman-Preston, who worked on both the Molchany and Michalow campaigns, says that while no such poll was carried out for Michalow, he had field reports -- "which turned out to be fairly accurate" -- that the race would be tight.

But Merriman-Preston, a celebrated architect of Peduto's political strategy, was wary of drawing too many lessons from yesterday's primary.

"There's only a big-picture takeaway when I win," jokes Merriman-Preston, with a somewhat rueful laugh. "When I lose, it's all just minutiae."

Or in Molchany's case, cartography. Redistricting forced Molchany into a district -- made up of city South Hills neighborhoods as well as Brentwood and Baldwin -- that was mostly Readshaw's home turf. Molchany did well in the portion of the new district she brought with her: In the city's 19th ward of Beechview, for example, she trounced Readshaw 75-25. But Readshaw beat her by a similar margin in his base of Carrick, and in the suburbs he steamrolled her by three-to-one.

"I'm still parsing the numbers, but it was definitely geography," Merriman-Preston said this morning. "When you lose by 20 points instead of 20 votes, there's more going into it at the beginning."

And while Molchany became a cause clbre for Peduto and like-minded allies, it's not always clear how much that support helped in the heavily white, working-class district. Take, for example, Peduto's ad endorsing Molchany. While Peduto's backing may have inspired progressives, it also prominently mentions Molchany's work with Planned Parenthood, which took a strong role in her campaign . But among political insiders there is speculation that, in a socially conservative district, name-dropping an abortion-rights group may have been a double-edged sword.

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In cross-town legislative races, a combination punch for city progressives

Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi | credits: File copy

Chieftains of the All Progressives Congress on Wednesday in Ado-Ekiti blamed the Peoples Democratic Partys 15 years of misrule for the poverty and insecurity in Nigeria.

They spoke at the official presentation of the APCs flag to Governor Kayode Fayemi by the interim National Chairman, Chief Bisi Akande, ahead of the June 21 governorship election in Ekiti.

The criticism followed the spate of blasts in the country and the abduction of over 200 pupils of Government Secondary School, Chibok, Borno State, by the Boko Haram Islamic sect.

Reports said no fewer than 150 people died in the Tuesdays blasts in the ever-busy Jos Terminus Market, Plateau State.

On Thursday, two schools in Bauchi State were attacked while Kano was bombed on Sunday.

A minute silence was observed at the rally in honour of victims of attacks of insurgency in Nigeria.

Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha, who called out governors of the APC to present their endorsement letters to Fayemi, lamented that Nigeria was going through a very difficult moment.

Referring to the Tuesdays bombing, he said, Many may not agree that today Nigeria is going through a very difficult moment. Let me say that a nation like Nigeria that is facing extreme danger of daily bombings, killings and blood letting should better seek the wisest cause of action and not of mourning.

The governor, who said the party initially considered canceling the rally because of the unfortunate incident, said the gathering was for the love of democracy and to celebrate excellent performance and visionary leadership of Fayemi, and to ensure that Ekiti people did not fall victims of misrule.

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Insecurity: APC blasts PDP at Ekiti rally

The Canberra Liberals are calling on the ACT Government to abandon its plan to build light rail in the wake of federal budget cuts.

Chief Minister Katy Gallagher expects the budget will slash $240 million in health funding from the ACT over the next four years.

Opposition Leader Jeremy Hanson disagrees with those figures but admits Canberra is in for some lean fiscal times.

He says plans to build a $614 million light rail network between Gungahlin and Civic should be dumped.

"Now is not the time to be spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a tram track between the city and Gungahlin that we simply cannot afford, that this city does not need and for the vast bulk of Canberrans are going to miss out on," he said.

"Ultimately they still don't know how they're going to pay for this, and they still can't tell us how much it will cost to operate."

Mr Hanson says light rail is not a great way to create employment and Ms Gallagher needs to rethink her priorities.

"The case has not been made for light rail and I will be putting our nurses, teachers, children and surgery patients as my number one priority and Katy Gallagher should do the same," he said.

"Any cuts to health or education that she imposes on Canberrans while concurrently spending hundreds of millions of dollars on light rail would be a failure in her duty to the people of Canberra."

But Ms Gallagher says the project will create jobs and boost economic activity at a time when it is most needed.

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Canberra Liberals call for light rail plans to be dumped in wake of budget cuts

The Liberals appear to be benefitting from a low-key NDP campaign and voter concerns about a Progressive Conservative plan to cut 100,000 public service jobs, according to a new poll.

In the latest Forum Research survey, Kathleen Wynnes Liberals lead with 41 per cent to 34 per cent for Tim Hudaks Conservatives, and 20 per cent for Andrea Horwaths New Democrats. The Greens, led by Mike Schreiner, have 4 per cent.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said challenges lay ahead for the Tories and the NDP in the lead up to the June 12 election.

The NDP . . . campaign has just been slow to launch. There is a bit of a price to pay . . . for not announcing their platform yet, Bozinoff said Wednesday.

In Toronto, for example, where the NDP holds five seats, support has dipped to 14 per cent. That compares with 51 per cent for the Liberals, who have 17 city seats, and 33 per cent for the Tories, who have one.

Compounding the New Democrats dilemma is a left-leaning Liberal Party that appeals to traditional progressive voters and a right-wing PC platform that could lead to anti-Hudak strategic voting, the pollster said.

With the Tories . . . they havent, for some people, explained the 100,000 jobs and the million jobs, he said, referring to the 100,000 jobs Hudak plans to eliminate from the broader public sector over four years in order to create 1 million private-sector jobs in eight years.

Thats 100,000 people and they all have spouses and they all have parents and they all have friends so it takes time for this to percolate through.

In last weeks poll, 62 per cent disapproved of the proposed cuts while 26 per cent approved and 11 per cent werent sure. Similarly, 63 per cent doubted 1 million jobs could be generated while 26 per cent believe they would and 11 per cent didnt know.

Using interactive voice-response phone calls, Forum surveyed 1,136 people across Ontario on Tuesday and results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Poll: Tory cuts and low-key NDP campaign helping Liberals

Watch video above: Jackson Proskow looks at the claims made in the latest round of campaign ads and explains why ads are important to a campaign.

TORONTO The Liberals, Progressive Conservatives and NDP marked the end of a two-week blackout on election advertising yes, its only been two weeks. Just four more to go! by releasing their own ads.

The NDP attacked the Liberals; the Liberals attacked the Tories; the Tories, who spent the last three years criticizing the Liberals, focused on their jobs plan.

But the statements made in each ad, despite their tone, may not be entirely true.

The Liberals

Tim Hudak wants to make classrooms more crowded, cut teachers and health care and somehow make our economy grow by firing 100,000 people.

Wynne spends most of her 30-second television ad spouting vague statements about their plan; creating jobs, investing in transit, creating fair pensions.

She takes a shot at Hudak though, claiming he will fire 100,000 people. But thats not entirely accurate.

Tim Hudak does plan to reduce the government payroll by 100,000. But he wont be handing out 100,000 pink slips. Instead he hopes to use attrition: when employees retire, many of these positions will not be filled.

We still dont know how many people will be fired outright and how many positions will be left vacant, or where Hudak will find these vacancies if not from health-care workers or the police, as he has promised. His team says it will include municipal workers as well as those on the provinces payroll.

Link:
Reality check: Dissecting the claims of campaign ads