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By Perry Bacon Jr.

DES MOINES- Iowa Democrats are ready for Hillary for now.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton makes her first major visit to the early-voting state this weekend, but her huge lead in the polls here obscures a certain lack of passion for her potential presidential candidacy among some key party activists.

Democrats here dont rule out the possibility of falling in love with another candidate as they did with Barack Obama in 2008 -- and backing that person over Clinton again.

Im just not excited about her, said Diane Pickle, an accountant who was an Obama precinct captain in 2008. I admire her. I think shes a wonderful person.

In interviews this week with 15 major organizers, elected officials and activists in Iowa who helped power Obamas upset victory in the 2008 caucuses, they described Obamas early campaign as a political dream come true. His speeches were inspiring, his charisma unparalleled, his supporters a perfect mix of young and old, liberal and moderate.

Barack blew me away, says Tom Miller, Iowas longtime attorney general, who was one of the highest-ranking Democrats here to endorse Obama in 2008 and remains a strong supporter.

But when the conversation turned to Clinton, who is visiting Iowa for retiring Senator Tom Harkins famous steak fry on Sunday, the activists sounded more like political pundits. Nearly all of these activists said no other potential candidate is as experienced or qualified as the former secretary of state and first lady. Foreign policy would be a key theme of the 2016 campaign, they noted, right in her wheelhouse. And Clinton is electable, several said.

Im looking. I keep thinking, am I the only one looking? I say to people, why not Joe Biden?'

I have a hard time viewing it (2008) as a vote against her, as opposed to it was time for something new and giving that a try, said Phil Roeder, a public relations professional who was a precinct captain and organizer for Obama in 2008.

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Iowa Democrats Weigh Giving Clinton a Second Chance

One thing you should know before I even get started: I have never missed a Congressional generic ballot yet. No other polling company has published a generic ballot in September so this is the first out of the chute and the new Zogby Analytics matchup shows the Democrats leading by 12 points 42% to 30%. Now, in the full interests of truth, the Congressional generic is not the best barometric reading for an election outcome, but it is at least a useful trend to watch. So this is not a prediction but look at what we found.

The Democrats hold a double digit lead among both men (43%-29%) and women (40%-30%). They also lead 64% to 10% among 18-29 year olds and 44% to 28% among 30-49 year olds. The Republicans lead among older voters, however 41% to 31% among 50-64 year olds and 38% to 31% among those over 65. The Democratic congressional candidate does better among Democrats (87% to 3%) than the Republican congressional candidate does among Republicans (74% to 7%). The same is true among liberals who support the Democrat in their district (83% to 6%), while conservatives only back the Republican 61% to 15%.

But the real story here in this poll is to be found among both independents and moderates two groups that are separate and distinct. Self-described moderates choose Democrats by a wide margin 42% to 19%, with 6% selecting other and 34% undecided. That might not mean a hill of beans in November because there are so many gerrymandered safe districts that moderates dont mean much.

But independents are the truly interesting ones, only half of whom are moderates, with two in three of the remaining describing themselves as conservatives. In this new Zogby poll 20% say they will vote for the Democrat, 16% for the Republican, 15% say other and 49% are undecided. That certainly tells a story right there. First, we have no idea how many of these independents will actually turn out to vote. Second, the groups that the GOP normally count on are more likely to be undecided today for example, whites (27%), as opposed to African Americans (11%) and Hispanics (8%), and Protestants (24%). Even one in three Born Again/Evangelical voters is undecided.

District by district, the GOP is favored to hold on to the House of Representatives majority. But, at least for now, there is no sign of a wave in their favor, something that had started to take shape at this point in time in 2010.

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Democrats Lead Republicans 42%-30% in Congressional Generic

Democrats have a lot to worry about in the midterm electionsbut one of their sturdiest bulwarks against a GOP rout in the fall has been support among women. They have held significant leads over Republicans among women by a number of polling measures.

But the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News Pollhas some warning signs for Democrats who are counting on women to help them weather a tough political climate.

An important bellwether is the question of which party voters would prefer to control Congress, and it has long been the case that men prefer a Republican Congress and women favor a Democratic Congress.

But the poll conducted Sept. 3-7 found that womens Democratic preference had shrunk to a 47%-40% margin down from 51% -37% a month earlier. The swing was especially sharp among white women, who gave Democrats a 4 point edge in August; in the new poll, Republicans enjoyed 48%-40% advantage.

It is hard to assess what accounts for that shift but, if it proves a durable trend, the stakes are high. GOP pollster Bill McInturff said that maintaining support among women is critical for Democrats in the midterm elections, or else a difficult cycle becomes a really terrible cycle for Democrats.

The poll also found that womens feelings about the Democratic Party have soured, as 39% expressed positive feelings toward the party, down from 44% in June. And their support for Obama is also eroding especially on foreign policy, with only 33% approving of his handling of foreign policy compared with 46% a month ago.

Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who worked with Mr. McInturff to conduct the poll, said those findings invite comparison to the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House majority and exit polls showed the GOP winning a rare victory among women (49%-48%).

The results among women in this poll should be a cautionary tale for Democrats, Mr. Horwitt said. What we dont know is if this is a trend or a blip.

However, the poll also showed that voters had more confidence in Democrats to look out for the interests of women by 45% to 17% a 28-point margin, wider than on any other issue assessed by the poll.

In the midterm battle for control of the Senate, some of the most important trends are not measured by national polls but polls within the states where contested races are being held. In New Hampshire, appealing to women is crucial to the campaign of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen to keep her Republican opponent Scott Brown at bay. The Granite State Poll in August found Ms. Shaheen was leading Mr. Brown by 53%-39% among women even as her overall advantage was measured to be only 46%-44%.

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The Gender Gap: Warning Signs for Democrats

Commentary: By Angelo Falcn

Latino immigration reform advocates are up in arms over yet another broken promise by President Obama to further delay his plans to issue administration relief on deportations, DACA-style. With the midterm elections ever on his mind, he is now also finally planning military action against the ISIS threat. By side-stepping the immigration issue for the time being he seems to be counting on John Muellers classic rally round the flag strategy to bring his party the electoral support it seeks in November to continue their control of the Senate. In the process, he has effectively thrown Latino immigration advocates, who have vouched for him over and again despite his record, under the proverbial autobus or guagua.

The reaction so far has been symbolic. Latino leaders are livid, bitterly disappointed, with some referring to Obama and the Democrats now as immigration opportunists. Others have documented how Obama has missed an opportunity to energize his Latino base, giving even more credibility to Nate Silvers predictions of Democratic Party losses in November.

Still others are now increasingly noting that too many of the national Latino organizations had gotten way too close to the White House, with very little payoff. The National Hispanic Leadership Agenda )NHLA), a coalition of 39 of the leading national Latino organizations, just issued a statement that in part pointed out that President Obama has never even deemed to meet with the group in his six years in office!

This collective outburst, however, is being met with sage advice by pro-Obama white liberal allies. Angela Marie Kelley, Vice President for Immigration Policy at the Center for American Progress told Buzzfeed:

Theres no one answer because none of these Latino groups are going to act the same,. I do think things will cool down enough so people can look at broader political issues again. . . I dont know that there wont be some constituencies that will be angry and wont get beyond that. But I think most groups will come back to the table. You know, its not powerful to not vote.

Simon Rosenberg, President of the NDN/New Policy Institute explained to the Huffington Post that, Immigration advocates should be careful to temper their reaction. At the end of the day, we are talking about a six-week delay on an issue of enormous consequence. It is more important that it get done right than fast.

The problems with this advice are many. While Rosenberg is pointing out that all that will be involved is a six-week delay I think most Latinos might reply. Oye Simon, its been SIX YEARS of broken promises. And to Angela, Are you saying Latinos are so hot blooded that we cant look at broader political issues again? Which poses the following recurring Cecilia Muoz Question: Are these people allies or simply flack-catchers for the Obama Administration?

But the big question is what does the Latino community do now? Do we hold out the hope that the Presidents just announced delay on deportation relief is simply a political blip that will be addressed after the November elections? Or maybe the Latino community will just have to wait until after the 2016 Presidential elections and two or three years of military actions against ISIS? After all, whats two or more years of waiting? Anyway, by this time, its clear Latinos are already used to the deaths ad abuses of the deportations, the continuing employer exploitation of immigrant workers, the unrelenting Republican and rightwing scapegoating for the sins of corporate America and corrupt Central American societies, and have apparently perfected the art of skulking in the shadows of American society. Even Future Stephen in a recent The Colbert Report couldnt pinpoint just when this reform would be adopted! I guess we just have to learn to perpetually delay the need for immediate policy gratification.

The problem, of course, is that Latino voters dont have any political place else to go and so the Democrats can continue to take them for granted. The Republicans arent a real alternative in their current Tea Party-Fox News incarnation. Should Latinos start their own party? Or maybe, we should mass self-deport back to Latin America, Marcus Garvey-like? Another possibility is to have Latinos all join The Libre Initiative or the Heritage Foundation and turn them into hotbeds of Latino activism, since it is rumored we are all natural Republicans? Maybe Dolores Huerta should sign on to a class action suit against President Obama for trademark infringement or something over his deceptive use of the phrase, Si se Puede!

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Toward a New Immigration Reform Strategy: Where Do Latinos Go From Here?

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents take a suspect into custody in Chula Vista, Calif., March 30, 2012, as part of a nationwide immigration sweep. Federal officials say they arrested more than 3,100 immigrants convicted of serious crimes and fugitives in a six-day nationwide operation. AP Photo/Gregory Bull

When President Obama decided to delay his plans to unilaterally implement immigration reforms, immigrant advocates slammed him as the "deporter-in-chief." Yet according to an analysis from the Associated Press, the president has quietly slowed deportations by nearly 20 percent in about the past year.

The Homeland Security Department is now on pace to remove the fewest number of immigrants since 2007.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the agency responsible for deportations, sent home 258,608 immigrants between the start of the budget year last Oct. 1 and July 28 this summer, a decrease of nearly 20 percent from the same period in 2013, when 320,167 people were removed.

Over 10 months in 2012, ICE deported 344,624 people, some 25 percent more than this year, according to federal figures obtained by the AP.

The president has been mulling executive action to grant deportation relief to some undocumented immigrants in the United States and strengthen border security resources. In June, he announced that he'd asked Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson and Attorney General Eric Holder to present a list of executive actions he could take within the scope of his authority to modernize and streamline U.S. immigration policy.

Mr. Obama previously signaled he would move on the issue by the end of summer, but earlier this month, he announced he would delay any action until after the congressional elections in November. The White House suggested that Republicans' "extreme politicization of the issue" would harm the policymaking.

"The reality the President has had to weigh is that we're in the midst of the political season, and because of the Republicans' extreme politicization of this issue, the President believes it would be harmful to the policy itself and to the long-term prospects for comprehensive immigration reform to announce administrative action before the elections," a White House official explained.

There are two principal reasons fewer immigrants already are being deported:

-The Obama administration decided as early as summer 2011 to focus its deportation efforts on criminal immigrants or those who posed a threat to national security or public safety. Many others who crossed into the United States illegally or overstayed their visas and could be subject to deportation are stuck in a federal immigration court system. Last month the backlog in that system exceeded 400,000 cases for the first time, according to court data analyzed by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University. For each case, it now takes several years for a judge to issue a final order to leave the U.S.

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No immigration action yet, but deportations are down