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Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate

Republicans are strong favorites to retake the Senate majority this fall, according to The Post's new Election Lab model. (Read more about it here.)

According to the model, which was built for The Post by political scientist and Monkey Cage blog author John Sides, Republicans have an 82 percent chance of claiming the six seats they need to move back into the majority. Explains Sides:

The main problem for Democrats is that its a midterm year and the presidents party almost always loses seats in the midterm. Moreover, conditionsmake it difficultfor Democrats to overcome this tendency: The economy is not growing that strongly and, partly as a consequence, President Obama is not that popular. Moreover, as many have noted, many seats that the Democrats must defend this year are in Republican-leaning states.

Given these conditions, thepolitical science literaturesuggests that quality Republican candidates should emerge. This is because quality candidates are strategic: They tend to run when their chances of winning are higher. Thus, many Republican candidates have significant political experience in state legislatures, the U.S. House of Representatives, and in other offices. (In states where primaries havent taken place, we assume that the eventual party nominees will have an average experience level like that of nominees in similar races in the past.)

Of the two Republican seats seen as potential pickups for Democrats, neither look promising. Republicans have a 94.37 percent chance of holding onto the open Georgia seat and upwards of a 97 percent chance of keeping the Kentucky seat. On the other hand, there are currently eight Democratic-held seats where the Election Lab gives Republicans a better than 50 percent chance of winning. In order, they are:

1. South Dakota (99.14 percent of GOP takeover)

2. West Virginia (94.58 percent)

3. Montana (73.05 percent)

4. Louisiana (72.48 percent)

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Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate

Tea Partygoer gets his ear bitten off. And they Say Progressives Aren’t Violent. – Video


Tea Partygoer gets his ear bitten off. And they Say Progressives Aren #39;t Violent.
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Tea Partygoer gets his ear bitten off. And they Say Progressives Aren't Violent. - Video

Nigeria becoming worlds laughing stock -Ogbeh

A former Minister of Communication and chieftain of the All Progressives Congress, Chief Audu Ogbeh, has said Nigeria is fast becoming a laughing stock among other nations in the world because of the state of insecurity in the country.

Ogbeh therefore asked President Goodluck Jonathan to take drastic actions in the fight against the Boko Haram sect, noting that the country was already in grave danger.

The former national chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, who spoke with journalists in Abuja on Monday night, wondered why the Federal Government and the military could deploy soldiers to man streets without adequate equipment.

He said a situation where invaders would arrive and kill 100 in Katsina, 215 in Birnin Kebbi, kill in Kaduna, Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa states without being challenged was not acceptable.

He alleged that some of the the mercenaries were hired from neighbouring counties, saying that when they were caught, it was realised that they were of Arabian nationalities.

He said, Nigeria is fast becoming a laughing stock in the world. I think it is reaching a state where not only foreigners but Nigerians will begin to lose confidence in their country.

Again what of our neighbours, how much respect does Cameroon, Niger or Chad have for Nigeria? And what level of diplomacy are we deploying to talk to these people to make sure that bandits dont take refuge in their territory? If they had respect for Nigeria they wont try it.

I remember 1983 when some Chadian troublemakers invaded Nigeria and killed some soldiers, Gen. Buhari pursued them on the orders of President Shehu Shagari until the United States started panicking that we were implementing a Gaddafi agenda.

Recently I was discoursing with Buhari on this issue and he said he wanted to give them a bloody nose because he wanted to show them that they had no business entering Nigeria to cause trouble.

So when are we going to get tough. We are not a small country. And why should small neighbors do this to us or pretend not to know what is going on? When are we going to take tough measures against them?

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Nigeria becoming worlds laughing stock -Ogbeh

Question Period – Liberals still against fair and open tendering for local jobs – Video


Question Period - Liberals still against fair and open tendering for local jobs

By: Michael Harris

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Question Period - Liberals still against fair and open tendering for local jobs - Video

Liberals move to repeal Citizens United – Video


Liberals move to repeal Citizens United
In Trenders, crack-smoking Mayor Rob Ford takes a leave from office, while a conservative host blames feminism for the education gap. Ed Schultz and Sarah Sl...

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Liberals move to repeal Citizens United - Video