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T'is the season to be gloomy, when the world's prognosticators provide their competing lists of the coming year's top risks. And there are plenty of candidates, from Iran to North Korea, and from American elections to global warming.

Acting on the advice of Winston Churchill, I'll instead close my year on a more hopeful note. "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty," Churchill famously said. He declared himself an optimist as "it does not seem to be much use to be anything else."

With that in mind, here are six sources of optimism for 2020:

We've never had it so good.

Global well-being has hit its highest level ever, or so says the recently released Legatum Prosperity Index. In the past decade, prosperity has improved in 148 countries and declined in only 19 of the 167 countries Legatum surveys, making up more than 99% of the world's population.

This improvement reaches from health-care systems and adult education, and from the delivery of basic services to more widespread financial security.

According to World Bank figures, more than a billion people have moved out of extreme poverty since 1990, leaving the share of population at that level at 10 % which, though still troubling, is the lowest since such figures have been recorded.

The Economist picks a "country of the year" each December, and it is telling that this year Uzbekistan was its most-improved land. What one is seeing are fruits of Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev's leadership after the Uzbek despot Islam Karimov died in 2016.

Until his death, the regime was "a closed society run with exceptional brutality and incompetence," writes the Economist. "It's regime allegedly boiled dissidents alive, and certainly forced legions of men, women and children to toil in the cotton fields."

After firing the head of his security services in 2018, Mirziyoyev's reforms accelerated this year. They largely ended forced labor, shut down Uzbekistan's most notorious prison, opened the country to foreign journalists and stopped bureaucrats from bullying small businesses for bribes.

The Economist's runner up was Sudan, another country that in 2019 took a giant step from despotism when mass protests led to the removal of "one of the world's vilest tyrants," Omar al-Bashir. The Atlantic Council this month hosted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who represented a power-sharing government that has promised elections in three years.

Although there is justifiable concern about growing inequalities within countries both in the developing and less developed world less attention has been paid to the more positive trend that global inequality among countries has been declining for several decades. For the first time since the Industrial Revolution, about half of the global population can be considered middle class.

Beyond that, about half of the world's population now lives in democracies, a far cry from most of human history during which the vast majority lived under non-democratic regimes. Of those still living in autocracies, some 90% are in China. The conventional wisdom is that China is growing even more authoritarian, and hence it is inspiring others.

That said, protests in Hong Kong and upcoming elections in Taiwan suggest otherwise. Protests in the Middle East in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon also are aimed at corrupt and sectarian governments and could be a force for democratic change.

Watch this space in 2020.

With the United Kingdom leaving the European Union next year, the continent's doomsayers are at it again (sometimes including me). What they forget is that there has been no war or conflict in Western Europe in some three generations, in no small part due to the European Union's creation and the peace between France and Germany that accompanied it.

Long may that last.

And for all the concern about growing tensions between China and the United States, neither country wants a war. Global history since 1500 shows that the world's two leading powers have been at war more than half the time, but the period since World War II has been historically peaceful. It will take increased attention to keep it that way.

Quoting Steven Pinker's book Enlightenment Now, Bill Gates writes that the global average IQ score is rising by about 3IQ points every decade. "Kids' brains are developing more fully thanks to improved nutrition and a cleaner environment," he writes, crediting Pinker.

"Think about how many symbols you interpret every time you check your phone's home screen or look at a subway map," writes Gates. "Our world today encourages abstract thought from a young age, and it's making us smarter."

Elsewhere, Gates notes that while a century ago it was legal to be gay in only 20 countries, today that's true in more than 100. Legatum's survey showed that residents of 11 countries expressed more tolerance than they did a decade previously, particularly regarding the LGBT community (but that at the same time restrictions on freedoms to speak, assemble and associate have deteriorated in 122 countries.)

In parallel, women are gaining political power in leaps and bounds, now making up more than a fifth of members of national parliaments. The world listens in unprecedented manner when women raise complaints about discrimination and sexual assault.

Okay, there's a lot about Artificial Intelligence that is scary. It could empower tyrants, threaten jobs and entrench bias. At the same time, history is awash with examples that technological change has brought more progress than perils. Advanced technologies could improve health care and even address climate change.

Writing for the World Economic Forum, Jeremy O'Brien says quantum computing could help beat climate change through simulations that could uncover new catalysts for carbon capture that are cheaper and more efficient than current models. "A catalyst for 'scrubbing' carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere could be a powerful tool in tackling climate change," he writes.

It's tempting to write some balancing lines here about why 2020 will be a particularly shock-prone year. Let's save that for the New Year. After all, it is the optimists who are best equipped to find solutions to global problems because they believe they can.

"Choose to be optimistic, it feels better," said the Dalai Lama.

Happy holidays.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, prize-winning journalist and president & CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States' most influential think tanks on global affairs. He worked at The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign correspondent, assistant managing editor and as the longest-serving editor of the paper's European edition. His latest book "Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth" was a New York Times best-seller and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his look each Saturday at the past week's top stories and trends.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

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Here are six reasons to be optimistic about 2020 - CNBC

Tis the end of the year when pundits typically dust off the crystal ball and take a stab at what tech, and its impact on consumers,will look like over the next12 months.

But we're also on the doorstep of a brand-new decade, which this time around promisesfurther advances in 5G networks, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, self-driving vehicles and more, all of which willdramatically alter the way we live, work and play.

So what tech advances can we look forward to in the new year? Heres what we can expect to see in 2020 and in some cases beyond.

(Photo: Getty Images)

The next generation of wireless has showed up on lists like this for years now. But in 2020, 5G really will finally begin to make its mark in the U.S., with all four major national carriers three if the T-Mobile-Sprint merger finally goes through continue to build out their 5G networks across the country.

Weve been hearing about the promise of 5G on the global stage for what seems like forever, and the carriersrecently launched in select markets. Still, the rollout in most places will continue to take time, as will the payoff: blistering fast wireless speeds and network responsiveness on our phones, improved self-driving cars and augmented reality, remote surgery, and entire smartcities.

As 2019 winds down, only a few phones can exploit the latest networks, not to mention all the remaining holes in 5G coverage. But youll see a whole lot more 5G phone introductions in the new year, including what many of us expect will be a 5G iPhone come September.

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When those holes are filled, roughly two-thirds of consumers said theyd be more willing to buy a 5G-capable smartphone, according to a mobile trends survey by Deloitte.

But Deloitte executive Kevin Westcott also said that telcos will need to manage consumer expectations about what 5G can deliver and determine what the killer apps for 5G will be.

The Deloitte survey also found that a combination of economic barriers (pricing, affordability) and a sense that current phones are good enough, will continue to slow the smartphone refresh cycle.

Are you ready for all the tech around you to disappear? No, not right away.The trend towards so-called ambient computing is not going to happen overnight, nor is anyone suggesting that screens and keyboards are going to go away entirely, or that youll stop reaching for a smartphone. But as more tiny sensorsare built into walls, TVs, household appliances, fixtures, what you're wearing, and eventually even your own body, youll be able to gesture or speak to a concealed assistant to get things done.

Steve Koenig, vice president of research at the Consumer Technology Association likens ambient computing to Star Trek, and suggests that at some point we won't need to place Amazon Echo Dots or other smart speakers in every room of house, since well just speak out loud to whatever, wherever.

Self-driving cars have been getting most the attention. But its not just cars that are going autonomous try planes and boats.

Cirrus Aircraft, for example, is in the final stages of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for a self-landing system for one of its private jets, and the tech, which I recently got to test, has real potential to save lives.

How so? If the pilot becomes incapacitated, a passenger can press a single button on the roof of the main cabin. At that moment, the plane starts acting as if the pilot were still doing things. It factors in real-time weather, wind, the terrain, how much fuel remains, all the nearby airports where an emergency landing is possible, including the lengths of all runways, and automatically broadcasts its whereaboutsto air traffic control.From there the system safely lands the plane.

Or consider the 2020 version of the Mayflower, not a Pilgrim ship, but rather a marine research vessel from IBM and a marine exploration non-profit known as Promare. The plan is to have the unmanned shipcross the Atlantic in September from Plymouth, England to Plymouth, Massachusetts. The ship will be powered by a hybrid propulsion system, utilizing wind, solar, state-of-the-art batteries, and a diesel generator. It plans to follow the 3,220-mile route the original Mayflower took 400 years ago.

Two of Americas biggest passions come together. esports is one of the fastest growing spectator sports around the world, and the Supreme Court cleared a path last year for legalized gambling across the states. The betting community is licking their chops at the prospect of exploiting this mostly untapped market. Youll be able to bet on esports in more places, whetherat a sportsbook inside a casino or through an app on your phone.

One of the scary prospects about artificial intelligence is that it is going to eliminate all these jobs. Research out of MIT and IBM Watson suggests that while AI will for sure impact the workplace, it wont lead to a huge loss of jobs.

That's a somewhat optimistic take given an alternate view thatAI-driven automation is going to displace workers.The research suggests thatAI will increasingly help us with tasks that can be automated, but will have a less direct impact on jobs that require skills such as design expertise and industrial strategy. The onus will be on bosses and employeesto start adapting to newroles and to try and expandtheirskills, effortsthe researchers say will beginin the new year.

The scary signs are still out there, however. For instance, McDonalds is already testing AI-powered drive-thrus that can recognize voice, which could reduce the need for human order-takers.

Perhaps its more wishful thinking than a flat-out prediction, but as Westcott puts it, Im hoping what goes away are the 17 power cords in my briefcase. Presumably a slight exaggeration.

But the thing we all want to see are batteries that dont prematurely peter out, and more seamless charging solutions.

Were still far off from the day where youll be able to get ample power to last all day on your phone or other devices just by walking into a room. But over-the-air wireless charging is slowly but surely progressing. This past June, for example, Seattle company Ossiareceived FCC certification for a first-of-its kind system to deliver over-the-air power at a distance. Devices with Ossias tech built-in should start appearing in the new year.

The Samsung Galaxy Fold smartphone featuring a foldable OLED display.(Photo: Samsung)

We know how the nascent market for foldable phones unfolded in 2019 things were kind of messy.Samsungs Galaxy Fold was delayed for months following screen problems, and even when the phone finally did arrive, it cost nearly $2,000. But that doesnt mean the idea behind flexible screen technologies goes away.

Samsung is still at it, and so is Lenovo-owned Motorola with its new retroRazr. The promise remains the same: let a devicefold or bend in such a way that you can take a smartphone-like form factor and morph it into a small tablet or computer. The ultimate success of such efforts will boil down to at least three of the factors that are always critical in tech: cost, simplicity, andutility.

Data scandals and privacy breaches have placed Facebook, Google and other others under the government's cross-hairs, and ordinary citizens are concerned. Expect some sort of reckoning, though it isn't obviousat this stage what that reckoningwill look like.

Pew recently put out a report that says roughly 6 in 10 Americans believe it is not possible to go about their daily lives without having their data collected.

"The coming decade will be a period of lots of ferment around privacy policy and also around technology related to privacy," says Lee Rainie, director of internet and technology research at Pew Research Center. He says consumers will potentially have more tools to give them a bit more control over how and what data gets shared and under whatcircumstances. "And there will be a lot of debate over what the policy should be."

Open question: Will there be national privacy regulations, perhaps ones modeled after the California law that is set to go into effect in the new year?

It isnt easy to explain quantum computing or the field it harnesses, quantum mechanics. In the simplest terms, think something exponentially more powerful than what we consider conventional computing, which is expressed in1s or 0s of bits. Quantum computing takes a quantum leap with whatare known as "qubits."

And while IBM, Intel, Google, Microsoft and others are all fighting for quantum supremacy, the takeaway over the next decadeis that thetechmay helpsolve problems far faster than before, fromdiagnosing disease to crackingforms of encryption, raising the stakes in data security.

Quantum computing: Google claims quantum computing breakthrough

What tech do you want or expect to see? Email: ebaig@usatoday.com; Follow @edbaig on Twitter.

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AI, 5G, 'ambient computing': What to expect in tech in 2020 and beyond - USA TODAY

The National Security Agency can gather the data of US citizens without a warrant - as long as it gathers this data by mistake, a court has ruled. However, this suits the agency just fine, whistleblower William Binney told RT.

The NSA is permitted to gather data on US citizens abroad, or foreign connected Americans at home. The dragnet surveillance operation necessary to gather this information also sucks up data on millions of Americans with no foreign contacts, a process critics say is unconstitutional.

On Wednesday, the 2nd Court of Appeals in New York declared this incidental collection of information permissible. The NSA has maintained that it is incapable of separating properly and improperly gathered data, but former NSA Technical Director William Binney told RT that this is simply untrue.

Theyve been lying to the courts all along, Binney said. Theyve had the capability to sort that stuff out. Its just that they dont want to.

This gives them power over everyone, the ability to look into political opponents like they did with President Trump, he continued.

While the court ruling gives the NSA free rein to suck up data on Americans phone and internet communications, it did not authorize the US other intelligence and law enforcement agencies to dig through this data. However, according to a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court ruling issued last year, the FBI accessed this data trove some 3.1 million times in 2017.

Its agents did so without proper warrants, and on persons unrelated to ongoing criminal cases, as explicitly forbidden by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. In at least one case, the FBI illegally accessed the data of a suspect before seeking a warrant to spy on them legally.

Wednesdays court ruling concerned Agron Hasbajrami, a US permanent resident who was arrested en route to Turkey in 2011. The government claimed that Hasbajrami was travelling to Pakistan to join a terrorist organization. Hasbajrami claims that the government illegally accessed NSA data to build its case against him.

The court did not issue a ruling on this data access, instead punting the decision back down to a lower court to examine the Fourth Amendment implications.

Hasbajramis case is rare, in that he was informed that the evidence against him was collected by the NSA. Defendants are usually kept in the dark when clandestine agencies do the investigating.

The CIA, the FBI, the DEA and other law enforcement people have access to that data to search for common crime within the United States, Binney said. And they use it against US citizens in criminal courts without telling anyone in the court, or anyone else in the court, lawyers included.

So theyre fundamentally violating the rights of thousands of US citizens every year...without any oversight whatsoever.

The existence of the NSAs mass surveillance program was revealed in 2013 by former agency contractor Edward Snowden. Though the agency has reportedly ended its phone spying program, the espionage charges against Snowden remain in place, and Snowden himself remains in Moscow, where he has been granted asylum.

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NSA has been lying to the courts all along, says whistleblower, as judges give warrantless surveillance the thumbs-up - RT

Edward Snowden won't see any of the proceeds from his new memoir instead, the US government is entitled to seize the profits, a federal judge ruled Dec. 17, 2019.

Snowden's memoir, "Permanent Record," describes his work as a contractor for the National Security Administration and his 2013 decision to leak government secrets, including the fact that the NSA was secretly collecting citizens' phone records. Snowden has lived in Moscow since 2013, where he has been granted asylum.

The US sued Snowden on the day his memoir was published in September, alleging that he violated contracts with the NSA by writing about his work there without pre-clearance.

Judge Liam O'Grady made a summary judgement in favor of the US government on Dec. 17, 2019, rejecting requests from Snowden's lawyers to move the case forward into the discovery stage. O'Grady ruled that Snowden violated his contracts, both with the publication of the memoir and through other public speaking engagements in which he discussed his work for the NSA.

"Snowden admits that the speeches themselves purport to discuss intelligence-related activities," O'Grady wrote in his decision, adding that Snowden "breached the CIA and NSA Secrecy agreements."

In recent years, Snowden has maintained his criticisms of US surveillance while also turning his attention to big tech companies. In November, he decried the practice of aggregating personal data, arguing that Facebook, Google, and Amazon "are engaged in abuse."

This article originally appeared on Business Insider. Follow @BusinessInsider on Twitter.

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Government can seize all profits from Edward Snowden's book - We Are The Mighty

Artificial intelligence, or AI, is a computer system which learns from the experiences it encounters. It can adjust on its own to new inputs, allowing it to perform tasks in a way that is similar to what a human would do. How we have defined AI over the years has changed, as have the tasks weve had these machines complete.

As a term, artificial intelligence was defined in 1956. With increasing levels of data being processed, improved storage capabilities, and the development of advanced algorithms, AI can now mimic human reasoning. AI personal assistants, like Siri or Alexa, have been around for military purposes since 2003.

With these artificial intelligence pros and cons, it is important to think of this technology as a decision support system. It is not the type of AI from science-fiction stories which attempts to rule the world by dominating the human race.

1. Artificial intelligence completes routine tasks with ease.Many of the tasks that we complete every day are repetitive. That repetition helps us to get into a routine and positive work flow. It also takes up a lot of our time. With AI, the repetitive tasks can be automated, finely tuning the equipment to work for extended time periods to complete the work. That allows human workers to focus on the more creative elements of their job responsibilities.

2. Artificial intelligence can work indefinitely.Human workers are typically good for 8-10 hours of production every day. Artificial intelligence can continue operating for an indefinite time period. As long as there is a power resource available to it, and the equipment is properly cared for, AI machines do not experience the same dips in productivity that human workers experience when they get tired at the end of the day.

3. Artificial intelligence makes fewer errors.AI is important within certain fields and industries where accuracy or precision is the top priority. When there are no margins for error, these machines are able to breakdown complicated math constructs into practical actions faster, and with more accuracy, when compared to human workers.

4. Artificial intelligence helps us to explore.There are many places in our universe where it would be unsafe, if not impossible, for humans to see. AI makes it possible for us to learn more about these places, which furthers our species knowledge database. We can explore the deepest parts of the ocean because of AI. We can journey to inhospitable planets because of AI. We can even find new resources to consume because of this technology.

5. Artificial intelligence can be used by anyone.There are multiple ways that the average person can embrace the benefits of AI every day. With smart homes powered by AI, thermostat and energy regulation helps to cut the monthly utility bill. Augmented reality allows consumers to picture items in their own home without purchasing them first. When it is correctly applied, our perception of reality is enhanced, which creates a positive personal experience.

6. Artificial intelligence makes us become more productive.AI creates a new standard for productivity. It will also make each one of us more productive as well. If you are texting someone or using word processing software to write a report and a misspelled word is automatically corrected, then youve just experienced a time benefit because of AI. An artificial intelligence can sift through petabytes of information, which is something the human brain is just not designed to do.

7. Artificial intelligence could make us healthier.Every industry benefits from the presence and use of AI. We can use AI to establish healthier eating habits or to get more exercise. It can be used to diagnose certain diseases or recommends a treatment plan for something already diagnosed. In the future, AI might even assist physicians who are conducting a surgical procedure.

8. Artificial intelligence extends the human experience.With an AI helping each of us, we have the power to do more, be more, and explore more than ever before. In some ways, this evolutionary process could be our destiny. Some believe that computers and humanity are not separate, but instead a single, cognitive unit that already works together for the betterment of all. Through AI, people who are blind can now see. Those who are deaf can now hear. We become better because we have a greater capacity to do thins.

1. Artificial intelligence comes with a steep price tag.A new artificial intelligence is costly to build. Although the price is coming down, individual developments can still be as high as $300,000 for a basic AI. For small businesses operating on tight margins or low initial capital, it may be difficult to find the cash necessary to take advantage of the benefits which AI can bring. For larger companies, the cost of AI may be much higher, depending upon the scope of the project.

2. Artificial intelligence will reduce employment opportunities.There will be jobs gained because of AI. There will also be jobs lost because of it. Any job which features repetitive tasks as part of its duties is at-risk of being replaced by an artificial intelligence in the future. In 2017, Gartner predicted that 500,000 net jobs would be created because of AI. On the other end of the spectrum, up to 900,000 jobs could be lost because of it. Those figures are for jobs only within the United States.

3. Artificial intelligence will be tasked with its own decisions.One of the greatest threats we face with AI is its decision-making mechanism. An AI is only as intelligent and insightful as the individuals responsible for its initial programming. That means there could be a certain bias found within is mechanisms when it is time to make an important decision. In 2014, an active shooter situation caused people to call Uber to escape the area. Instead of recognizing the dangerous situation, the algorithm Uber used saw a spike in demand, so it decided to increase prices.

4. Artificial intelligence lacks creativity.We can program robots to perform creative tasks. Where we stall out in the evolution of AI is creating an intelligence which can be originally creative on its own. Our current AI matches the creativity of its creator. Because there is a lack of creativity, there tends to be a lack of empathy as well. That means the decision of an AI is based on what the best possible analytical solution happens to be, which may not always be the correct decision to make.

5. Artificial intelligence can lack improvement.An artificial intelligence may be able to change how it reacts in certain situations, much like a child stops touching a hot stove after being burned by it. What it does not do is alter its perceptions, responses, or reactions when there is a changing environment. There is an inability to distinguish specific bits of information observed beyond the data generated by that direct observation.

6. Artificial intelligence can be inaccurate.Machine translations have become an important tool in our quest to communicate with one another universally. The only problem with these translations is that they must be reviewed by humans because the words, not the intent of the words, is what machines translate. Without a review by a trained human translator, the information received from a machine translation may be inaccurate or insensitive, creating more problems instead of fewer with our overall communication.

7. Artificial intelligence changes the power structure of societies.Because AI offers the potential to change industries and the way we live in numerous ways, societies experience a power shift when it becomes the dominant force. Those who can create or control this technology are the ones who will be able to steer society toward their personal vision of how people should be. It also removes the humanity out of certain decisions, like the idea of having autonomous AI responsible for warfare without humans actually initiating the act of violence.

8. Artificial intelligence treats humanity as a commodity.When we look at the possible outcomes of AI on todays world, the debate is often about how many people benefit compared to how many people will not. The danger here is that people are treated as a commodity. Businesses are already doing this, looking at the commodity of automation through AI as a better investment than the commodity of human workers. If we begin to perceive ourselves as a commodity only, then AI will too, and the outcome of that decision could be unpredictable.

These artificial intelligence pros and cons show us that our world can benefit from its presence in a variety of ways. There are also many potential dangers which come with this technology. Jobs may be created, but jobs will be lost. Lives could be saved, but lives could also be lost. That is why the technologies behind AI must be made available to everyone. If only a few hold the power of AI, then the world could become a very different place in a short period of time.

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16 Artificial Intelligence Pros and Cons Vittana.org