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Whenever a major oil-producing region is engulfed in prolonged warfare, speculation starts to abound regarding all the potential changes to its oil and gas policy and the companies willing to take a share in its projects. The future of Iraqi oil production seems more or less settled for the upcoming years with international majors operating the most complex and grand-scale enterprises, whilst the Iraqi state companies generate know-how. Syria, too, despite occasional flareups, seems to have decided which way to go with its hydrocarbon projects the likelihood that state-affiliated companies from Russia or China will play a crucial role in re-erecting the countrys damaged infrastructure is higher than ever. But what about Libya?

The above question might be put a tad differently - projects which remained safe throughout the past months and years will surely remain as they function today but what would happen to the ones near or inside conflict zones? Deciding to invest into Libyas upstream requires a substantial amount of courage as the North African country is still torn between two rival governments, still struggles to come to terms with the Field Marshal Haftar-led offensive on Tripoli. Thus, if one is to invest into onshore projects (offshore production has remained uninterrupted throughout the Civil War), especially in territories which might be considered disputed, one needs some solid backing. Perhaps a return of a Russian oil company might provide a compass for future projects to come.

Tatneft has resumed exploration in its Block 04 acreage within the Ghadames Basin early December, less than 2 months after it had publicly voiced its interest in returning to the North African country. Having clinched eight blocks in Libya in the 2006-2007 licensing rounds and all of them under 100% control and operatorship, Tatneft managed to drill 6 wildcats in the first years of appraisal (with 2 commercial discoveries announced in Block 04). The seismic surveys of the Ghadames blocks are still not finalized AGESCO was tasked now to follow up with the remaining acreage that was still not covered in 2014 when Tatneft announced its suspension of all activities. Related: Is This The Beginning Of A Shale Crisis?

Graph 1. Tatneft Acreage in Libya.

Source: Author.

Tatneft claims that it would seek to invest $15 billion in new upstream investment by 2040, although the majority of those would go to projects in the Volga-Urals Basin in Russia. Moving abroad would also be considered a good step for Tatneft as it still has some reputation to ameliorate following its 2000s investments into Libya and Syria. It has spent more than $200 million in Libya without any tangible results so far, hence the pressure to deliver is manifest. Although it might be justifiably claimed that the Civil War rendered field development impossible and that less than half of the 14 years that passed since the signing of the first production sharing deal has actually passed, still, a Libyan breakthrough might be Tatnefts best option to effectuate a real breakthrough. Related: Another Oil Major Bails On Marcellus Shale

It has been reported that the Libyan NOC might compel Tatneft to take an even more active role in Libyan upstream, with political backing to keep the burgeoning negotiations intact. The crux of the matter lies in LNOCs relative lack of experience with heavy viscous crudes, a segment in which Tatneft (thanks to its extensive experience with sulphurous crudes from depleted reservoirs) could be very helpful. This was one of the reasons why LNOC reached out to Tatneft to start joint work on heavy projects, too. Tatneft is one of the key recipients of Russian tax exemptions as most of its output comes from fields that are considered depleted thus allowing to keep its production relatively cost-efficient despite the usage enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods.

Graph 2. Tatneft Crude Production in 2010-2019.

Source: Tatneft reports.

The rationale behind Tatnefts decision is straightforward enough compelled to work in the mature producing Volga-Urals region (i.e. in and around Tatarstan) with very little international upstream exposure, the company needs high-profile assets that can insulate it from sudden risks and diversify its resource base. The Russian firms production has been on the increase in the past 5 years, expected to reach 588kbpd in 2019 yet its future progress depends to a great extent on externalities i.e. whether the government continues to subsidize mature production by means of tax exemptions, whether it does not separate heavy sour Tatneft crude into the occasionally flaunted Urals Heavy stream and whether external pricing would support the usage of EOR techniques.

Given that it is Libya it seeks a return to, a nation that Moscow has long sought to cultivate friendly relations with, the Russian state would buttress its claim going forward. Tatneft could opt to develop its acreage in the Sirte Basin, too, however saw Ghadames a more viable bet. This might seem odd given the constructive relationship between Moscow and Field Marshal Haftar Sirte is much deeper in Haftar-controlled territory and thus might be perceived as safer to work at yet in this case it is the 3 previous discoveries that eventually carried the day. If heavy streams are added to Tatnefts portfolio or if Gazprom decides to restart works on its offshore block, the political link between Moscow and Tripoli might get even more thorough.

By Viktor Katona for Oilprice.com

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Putin Makes A Move In Libya's Oil Crescent - OilPrice.com

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Layla Mohammed barely had time to gather her children's belongings before fleeing their southern Tripoli home when shelling targeted the Libyan capital's outskirts earlier this year.

For months she moved her family between apartments as soaring rents in the crowded city exhausted her savings, eventually leaving them squatting in an unfinished building alongside dozens of other families.

More than 140,000 Libyans like Mohammed have fled their homes since April, when forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar launched an assault on Tripoli, seat of the UN-recognised government.

In central Tripoli, the grey skeletons of a high rise construction site -- abandoned since 2008 due to a property dispute -- now host more than 170 families.

For some, the high rises in Tarik al-Sekka were "a gift from heaven", since the alternative was living in the street.

But "we live like animals -- without running water, electricity, or even sewerage," said Mohammed, a mother of seven.

Her youngest son is sick with a chronic respiratory illness. "The dust will kill him," Mohammed despaired.

"All we want is to live in dignity," she said.

Neighbour Samira crowds her four children into a single room in a nearby building, preferring the greater warmth it affords over any sense of privacy.

She feels safe in the eight square metre room, which thanks to a benefactor has a door and a window. "Even if it's not ideal, at least it's free," she said.

Initially, Samira was determined to stay in her southern Tripoli home, even as combat crept closer over the months.

But when a rocket fell near her house the terror became too much and she fled, she said.

The buildings sheltering Samira and Mohammed are just metres from the seat of the Government of National Accord (GNA).

But authorities have done little to help.

Mayssoun al-Diab is in charge of displacement issues for the GNA's crisis committee but admits "the government has offered them nothing, not even moral support".

According to her, the government was unable to find shelter for all the displaced, leaving many at the mercy of avaricious lenders.

Her committee requisitioned schools, public buildings and hotels to house the displaced, but faced with an ever-growing influx as the battle dragged on, more and more families found themselves homeless.

When school resumed, the situation got worse. After living for months in one Tripoli school, Khairi al-Doukali said his family was "evicted alongside dozens of other families" to allow classes to restart.

Eventually, the Doukali family also ended up on the Tarik al-Sekka building site.

In the face of government inaction, civic-minded Tripoli residents have responded to heartfelt pleas online and stepped in to help.

Every day people give food, clothing and blankets, according to Salem el-Chatti, a member of a neighbourhood support group.

"We try to distribute donated items in a fair manner," he said.

A man named Abdel-Atti arrives to donate a mattress and blankets.

"I pass by these buildings every day," he said.

"It breaks my heart that my kids are fed and sleep warm inside while our brothers are experiencing this tragedy.

More here:
Libya war leaves thousands homeless in Tripoli - Daily Nation

A WILTSHIRE mother says she has lost track of two daughters taken to Libya by their Libyan father nearly five years ago.

Tanya Borg, of Pewsey, has been fighting to get Angel El Zubaidy, 19, and her eight-year-old sister, back to Britain since her estranged husband Mohammed El Zubaidy left them with his mother in Tripoli in 2015.

She took High Court action in London shortly after her daughters vanished.

Judges have twice jailed El Zubaidy, 41, who has lived in Wood Green, north London, since returning to England alone, for breaching orders to get his daughters back.

El Zubaidy, who left jail in November after completing his latest term, has told judges that he does not know where his daughters are and cannot get them back to Britain.

Earlier this year Ms Borg also took legal action in Libya after travelling to Tripoli.

She saw her children briefly during her visit.

But her lawyer says they disappeared after a Libyan judge ordered their grandmother to produce them at a court hearing and their whereabouts are now unknown.

Ms Borg, who was born in Malta and met El Zubaidy two decades ago, says she is heartbroken and not sure what to do next.

"I'm pretty much back to square one," she said.

"It's very complicated.

"I'm not sure what I can do next.

"I'm talking to my lawyers."

She added: "Their father is in control. He has all the power. He could get them back. I beg him to get them home."

Lawyer Pam Sanghera, who represents Ms Borg and is based at Charles Strachan Solicitors, said mother and daughters were briefly reunited earlier this year in Libya.

But she said Ms Borg's daughters vanished after a Libyan judge ordered their grandmother to produce them.

"The grandmother failed to produce the children at court and since then, has not been contactable and has left her family home," she said.

"The children's whereabouts in Libya are therefore unknown to their mother.

"She has made extensive inquiries in Libya to track down her children to no avail."

More:
Heartbroken Wiltshire mother says she has 'lost track' of daughters taken to Libya by estranged husband - Salisbury Journal

Suburban and college-educated white women, once reliable Republican voters, have fled the party in droves since Mr. Trumps election. According to the Brookings Institution, white college educated women increased their vote for Democrats by 13 points between 2016 and 2018. Among women, only white evangelicals remain firmly committed to the G.O.P. and Mr. Trump.

The alienation of female voters from the Republican Party is compounded by the indifference, at best, of Republican men to female candidates.

Together, these two trends have decimated the ranks of Republican women officeholders.

The partys veer to the right over the 2010s has placed nearly all Republican women with political ambition in a precarious position. Not surprisingly, in this environment, Republican women are reluctant to step up as candidates. This is a rational decision, some political science research shows. Other studies suggest that G.O.P. voters perceive women to be more moderate than men and are therefore less likely to vote for women. Small wonder that Representative Susan Brooks, the head of the Republicans House recruitment efforts for the next election cycle, will herself not seek re-election in 2020.

To survive, most Republican women have tethered themselves to President Trump. Senator Susan Collins, a onetime moderate with a bipartisan record, provided the deciding vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. She will face Maine voters in 2020 as the nations second-most-unpopular senator. Ms. Stefanik emerged in the Intelligence Committees impeachment inquiry as one of Mr. Trumps most outspoken defenders. Mr. Trump took notice, tweeting, A new Republican Star is born.

Yet not all female Republican politicians have thrown in their lot with the president. Senator Lisa Murkowski opposed Kavanaughs confirmation and is the only G.O.P. senator thus far to have broken ranks over the process for the Senates impeachment trial.

In the House, at least six Republican congresswomen have maintained some distance from the president. Well aware of how Mr. Trumps demands for loyalty have endangered their colleagues, they have tended to lie low, neither publicly embracing nor criticizing Mr. Trump, while consistently voting in line with his positions.

Several of these Republican congresswomen represent suburban areas. A few Ann Wagner of Missouri, Jackie Walorski of Indiana and Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington restarted the G.O.P. suburban caucus in November. In an effort to appeal to working suburban women, they focus on issues like paid maternity leave and the cost of child care.

More:
Republican Women Are in Crisis - The New York Times

In the whirlwind that is our current political environment, you might have missed one particular gust that swept through Congress this year: elected Republicans have shifted dramatically on climate change. The change is due in part to encouragement from conservative voters. Today, we see Republicans in Congress getting engaged on the issue, bringing to the table conservative solutions that protect hardworking Americans and ensure prosperity in our economy.

This year, freshman Sen. Mike BraunMichael BraunRepublicans came to the table on climate this year The prescription drug approval process is broken, but we have a plan to fix it Senate Republicans on delaying impeachment articles: 'One of the dumbest things I've ever heard' MORE (R-Ind.) told the Washington Examiner, Im not afraid to talk about climate change. Were obviously pumping more CO2 into the air, and theres a thing called the greenhouse effect. Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamUS airstrikes take tensions with Iran to new level Trump golfs with Graham ahead of impeachment trial Republicans came to the table on climate this year MORE (R-S.C.) agrees, saying, Im a Republican who believes the greenhouse gas effect is real, that climate change is being affected by manmade behavior.

In March, Sen. Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyTrump vaping ban could be back on the table Republicans came to the table on climate this year The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE (R-Utah) said theres no question that were experiencing climate change and that humans are a significant contributor. Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsPompeo: Running for Senate 'not something I want to do' Republicans came to the table on climate this year Pompeo launches personal Twitter account amid speculation over Senate run MORE (R-Kan.) said everyone in his agriculture-heavy state of Kansas realizes climate change is happening, calling the issue obvious. Sen. John BarrassoJohn Anthony BarrassoRepublicans came to the table on climate this year GOP predicts bipartisan acquittal at Trump impeachment trial GOP leadership: Initial phase of impeachment trial could run two weeks MORE (R-Wyo.), who represents Americas largest coal producing state , said, The climate is changing and we, collectively, have a responsibility to do something about it.

Rep. Matt GaetzMatthew (Matt) GaetzRepublicans came to the table on climate this year Trump invokes son Barron while attacking Warren at rally The Hill's 12:30 Report Presented by UANI Judiciary Democrats approve articles of impeachment setting up House vote next week MORE (R-Fla.) might have put it best when he posted on Facebook, I didn't come to Congress to argue with a thermometer. [...] The science of global warming is irrefutable. In May, Texas Sen. John CornynJohn CornynRepublicans came to the table on climate this year Senators seek to weaponize Clinton trial in Trump impeachment Schumer aims to drive wedge between Republicans on impeachment MORE told the Houston Chronicle bluntly, The days of ignoring this issue are over.

Theres clearly agreement within the party that climate change needs to be addressed. With that in mind, Republican officials have begun stepping down a path to protect rural Americans and coal communities, stimulate innovation, and use market forces (not regulations) to reduce emissions.

This year, 14 Republicans in the House worked across the aisle on the RECLAIM Act, which would help diversify the economies of coal communities as our country transitions to clean energy. Romney said explicitly that we should help the communities that are affected by the change in technology: the rural areas, the coal country. With Republicans engaged in the conversation about climate solutions, we can make sure these communities are protected.

Republicans also supported technological innovations such as carbon capture and storage. The bipartisan USE IT Act had support from more than 25 Republicans in the Senate and the House. This bill authorizes $35 million in competitive prize funding for direct air capture technologies and allocates $50 million toward research and development of technologies that transform captured carbon dioxide into commercial products. The bill passed the Senate as part of the National Defense Authorization Act this summer. This type of legislation directly addresses our desire to secure Americas place as a leader in innovation, as Sen. Graham has said. After all, as Rep. Buddy CarterEarl (Buddy) Leroy CarterRepublicans came to the table on climate this year Republicans storm closed-door hearing to protest impeachment inquiry Mass shootings have hit 158 House districts so far this year MORE (R-Ga.) says, We led the world with coal and oil and gas development. Now we need to do it with growing clean energy markets and cutting edge energy technology.

Republicans are also working to unleash the power of the American free market on the challenge of lowering emissions. Specifically, a price on carbon is a market-friendly policy mechanism that Republicans are coalescing around. Rep. Brian FitzpatrickBrian K. FitzpatrickRepublicans came to the table on climate this year The rise of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2019 House votes to temporarily repeal Trump SALT deduction cap MORE (R-Pa.) introduced the MARKET CHOICE Act, which would put a fee on carbon emissions to reduce them, while also eliminating the gas tax and investing in Americas infrastructure.

Rep. Francis RooneyLaurence (Francis) Francis RooneyRepublicans came to the table on climate this year Retiring Florida Republican to vote 'no' on articles of impeachment Democrats set to take historic step of impeaching Trump MORE (R-Fla.) is an original co-sponsor of Energy Innovation Act (H.R. 763), another innovative, market-driven policy. This bill will put a price on carbon pollution and give carbon dividends to every American. It will give businesses clarity about what choices will be best for the bottom line and for the environment, helping them plan for a prosperous future. At the same time, it makes sure most hardworking Americans come out ahead, with more money in their pockets than before. This bipartisan legislation has 75 co-sponsors in the House.

In addition to the legislation put forth this year, a group of Republican senators is laying groundwork for more climate legislation to come. Senators Braun, Graham, Lisa. Murkowski (R-Alaska), Romney, and Rubio have joined the bipartisan Senate Climate Solutions Caucus. According to Murkowski, the group will advance timely, pragmatic policies that will help lower our greenhouse gas emissions and address the threatening reality of climate change.

I am encouraged that Republican leaders are working on an issue I hold as important. I find that Im not alonemany other conservatives are concerned about the climate debt were passing on to our children, and their concern is showing up in public polling. Luntz Global found that GOP voters, by a two-to-one margin, support the idea of putting a price on carbon and returning carbon dividends to Americans. Young Republicans in particular are eager for this type of conservative climate policy: 75 percent say they support it.

Conservative voters will only get more vocal on this issue in 2020. College Republicans just launched a new advocacy group called Young Conservatives for Carbon Dividends, which will lobby Republicans to throw more support behind carbon dividend legislation. On Feb. 4, dozens of conservatives from Citizens Climate Lobby, a nonpartisan advocacy group, will meet with Republican offices on the Hill specifically about climate change. Ill be among them.

Republican members of Congress are comfortable acknowledging the problem of climate change now. Im optimistic well see them address it, while keeping conservative values and priorities front and center.

Jim Tolbert is the Conservative Outreach Director for Citizens Climate Lobby. He lives in North Carolina.

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Republicans came to the table on climate this year | TheHill - The Hill