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After its sharp rally earlier this year, the summer doldrums may have come early for bitcoin . The cryptocurrency is up 48% for the year thanks to bullish enthusiasm surrounding the debut of U.S. bitcoin ETFs in January and the April 19 halving . Bitcoin is on pace for its first positive week in the past six, according to Coin Metrics. However, it's fallen 11% in the second quarter and is off about 14% from its all-time high above $73,000, reached in March. Analysts remain optimistic on bitcoin long term, but they say the coming weeks will require some patience. "It could take three to five months for bitcoin to re-test recent highs," H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese told CNBC. "So [we're] short-term neutral to cautious and bullish medium- to long-term on bitcoin and by extension the miners." BTC.CM= 3M mountain Bitcoin has fallen 11% this quarter Bitcoin miners offer high beta exposure to bitcoin and have historically outperformed it during bull cycles, he added. His top pick in the space is CleanSpark . Wolfe Research technical analyst Rob Ginsberg shared a similar view on bitcoin. "While we reiterate our stance that from a multi-year timeframe it makes sense to remain long, the signs of further near-term downside continue to compound," he said in a note this week. "We continue to ask ourselves if the latest rejection at $70,000 was the beginning of an epic double top." Colonnese also pointed out that corrections between 25% and 30% are "par for the course" for bitcoin, even in bull cycles. "We would not be surprised if bitcoin were to retrace to the low-to-mid $50,000 range over the short term as stubbornly high inflation, slowing economic growth and geopolitical issues remain key risks," he said. Bitcoin has held above $60,000 since the beginning of May, when it broke below that level for the first time since February. But analysts who study price charts see that level as vulnerable and have warned about downside risk as low as $49,000 . It's still early innings for bitcoin this cycle, however, according to Colonnese. Between the increased demand this year from bitcoin ETFs and the reduced supply from the halving, the cryptocurrency's supply-and-demand dynamics are attractive. His base case is that bitcoin will reach $100,000 this cycle. "Looking at previous price cycles, bitcoin has historically peaked between one to one and a half years after a halving event with the bull stage running longer in each subsequent cycle," Colonnese said. "Bitcoin rallied to over $67,000 in November 2021, 546 days after the third halving event occurred in May 2020." "Assuming a similar duration for this bull stage of the price cycle, bitcoin may not reach its cycle peak until October 2025," Colonnese added. CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

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Bitcoin price may not retest this year's highs for another five months - CNBC

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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded in a narrow range this week, as the price correction in the top cryptocurrency following the halving event continues.

The oldest cryptocurrency, started off the week strongly, as it touched $65K, following a broader market upswing fueled by weaker-than-expected jobs data last week, which added momentum to speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider an interest rate cut.

However, BTC stuck to the narrow range of $60K- $64K for the rest of the week.

"Bitcoin topped out in mid-March at $73,793 and has pulled back significantly since then," said SA analyst, Florian Grummes.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD)and Nasdaq are strongly correlated, hence expect both asset classes to grind lower during the seasonal rather weaker summer months into the typical bottom in September or October, Grummes added.

Cryptocurrency trading volume took a breather in April, as it declined for the first time in seven months as rising geopolitical tensions and slower inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs weighed over the digital assets market, a CoinDesk report stated.

"The market has seen a slight rebound from the recent correction, indicating a stabilizing sentiment among investors," Lucy Hu, senior analyst, Metalpha, said.

Inflows into the U.S. spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have slowed, but some traders believe BTC will continue its bull run in the year.

"The bull run will continue and the price of Bitcoin could reach new highs after the halving based on historical patterns. Investors should still practice appropriate hedging tools to manage risks effectively," Hu added.

Notable News

Bitcoin, Ether prices

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was down 2.3% to $60.8K at 3:13 pm on Friday, and Ether (ETH-USD) fell ~3.4% to $2.9K.

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Bitcoin falls 3% week on week as price correction continues (Cryptocurrency:BTC-USD) - Seeking Alpha

Upping the stakes in the nascent private space-travel business, SpaceX unveiled a new spacesuit that will provide its upcoming Crew Dragon charter mission with the unprecedented ability to include a spacewalk.

The flight, slated to launch this summer, is the first of three technology demonstration missions developed and funded by entrepreneur-adventurer Jared Isaacman. The initiative, known as the Polaris Program, follows Isaacmans 2021 Inspiration4 mission, which marked SpaceXs first private charter and Isaacmans debut as a private astronaut.

The Polaris Program opens with a four-member crew launching onboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon into an orbit reaching nearly 750 mi. above Earth. The capsule is then planned to boost itself into an 870-mi.-high orbit, the highest altitude for a crewed spaceflight since the final Apollo Moon mission in 1972. After seven orbits, during which sensors will collect data about the radiation environment, the Dragon is to descend to an orbit about 435 mi. above Earth for the first spacewalk by private astronauts.

Since SpaceXs Crew Dragon lacks an airlock, the entire capsule will be depressurized during extravehicular activity (EVA) operations, which are expected to last 2 hr.

Isaacman, 41, will be accompanied outside the capsule by crewmate and SpaceX employee Sarah Gillis. Others on the Polaris kickoff mission, known as Polaris Dawn, are SpaceX employee Anna Menon and Isaacmans longtime friend and colleague Scott Kidd Poteet, mission director for Inspiration4.

Depressurizing the Dragon will require all four crewmembers to don EVA suits. The suits, which have been in development at SpaceX for two years and were unveiled on May 4, are based on the pressure suits worn by Dragon crewmembers during launch and reentry. SpaceX so far has flown 13 crews into orbit, including nine missions for NASA, three private charters to the space station for Houston-based Axiom Space and Isaacmans Inspiration4 mission.

With mobility in mind, SpaceX teams incorporated new materials, fabrication processes and novel joint designs to provide greater flexibility to astronauts in pressurized scenarios while retaining comfort for unpressurized scenarios, SpaceX wrote on its website. The 3D-printed helmet incorporates a new visor to reduce glare during the EVA in addition to the new head-up display and camera that provide information on the suits pressure, temperature and relative humidity.

The suit also incorporates enhancements for reliability and redundancy during a spacewalk, adding seals and pressure valves to help ensure the suit remains pressurized and the crew remains safe, the company stated.

The EVA spacesuit features:

The suit fits like a glove, Poteet wrote on X. So comfortable its hard not to take micro-naps between sim sessions.

The Polaris Dawn crew will wear the EVA suits for launch and reentry as well. This suit is to be our first design of the EVA suit, SpaceX Vice President for Dragon Stuart Keech said in a May 4 presentation. Were going to continue through block upgrades as we go forward and learn.

The spacewalk will include a hands-free demonstration using a foot-mobility aid, Isaacman added.

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SpaceX Unveils Spacesuit For Private Astronaut Spacewalk - Aviation Week

SpaceX launches its 74th Falcon 9 rocket from Launch Complex 39A on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. This mission, combined with the preceding Falcon 9 launches and the nine Falcon Heavy flights, allowed SpaceX to surpass the total number of Space Shuttle launches from this pad. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Update 3:14 p.m. EDT: SpaceX landed the first stage booster, B1083, on the droneship, A Shortfall of Gravitas.

With a Wednesday afternoon launch, SpaceXs Falcon family of rockets exceeded the total number of Space Shuttle missions from historic Launch Complex 39A at NASAs Kennedy Space Center. The combination of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rocket launches passed the total number of shuttle flights seen at that pad.

They reached the milestone with the Starlink 6-56 mission, which launched on a Falcon 9 rocket at 2:42 p.m. EDT (1842 UTC), marking 83 orbital launches from SpaceXs KSC pad. Thats one more than the 82 shuttle launches that took place over the 30-year history of that program.

The SpaceX flights are a combination of 74 Falcon 9 launches and nine Falcon Heavy launches.

The first stage booster supporting this mission, tail number B1083 in the SpaceX fleet, launched for a third time. It previously launched the Crew-8 mission to the International Space Station as well as the Starlink 6-48 mission.

A little more than eight minutes after liftoff, the booster touched down on the SpaceX droneship, A Shortfall of Gravitas. This marked the 68th booster landing for ASOG and the 305 first stage landing for SpaceX to date.

Following the booster landing, Jared Isaacman, the commander of the forthcoming Polaris Dawn mission, posted a couple of times on X (formerly known as Twitter) in reaction to mentions of the mission. The comments fueled speculation that B1083 will be the booster that supports the launch of Isaacman and his three crew mates inside of the Crew Dragon Resilience spacecraft.

During a Spaces event on X to talk about the Polaris Dawn mission, Stu Keech, the vice president of the Dragon program, noted that Crew Dragon Resilience was already in the Sunshine State, getting prepared for the launch. The mission will be highlighted by the operation of the first civilian spacewalk in history.

Its going through its prelaunch processing phase and the hardware is moving forward and on track for that early summer launch, Keech said.

Wednesday afternoons mission added another 23 Starlink satellites to the growing constellation. Prior to this launch, SpaceX has sent up 702 Starlink satellites to low Earth orbit in 2024 over the course of 31 launches.

According to expert orbital tracker and astronomer Jonathan McDowell, as of May 6 there are currently 5,935 Starlink satellites on orbit out of a total of 6,350 that have been launched to date.

Roughly half a day after the Starlink 6-56 mission launch, SpaceX aimed to add another 20 satellites to LEO with the Starlink 8-2 mission, lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. That mission, set to launch at 7:48 p.m. PDT (10:48 p.m. EDT, 0248 UTC), includes 13 Starlink satellites that feature the Direct to Cell capability.

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SpaceX breaks Space Shuttle pad record with Falcon 9 Starlink mission Spaceflight Now - Spaceflight Now

Crypto asset manager Grayscale is unlikely to go to war again for Ethereum.

Grayscale famously sued the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2022 in a fight to offer customers Bitcoin ETFs. The case went in its favour, and paved the way for the products to launch.

But now?

Theyre probably just like, To hell with it. Let somebody else step up this time, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas told DL News.

The firm this week withdrew a filing that wouldve made it harder for the SEC to defend the denial of Ethereum spot ETFs in court.

Theyre just sort of taking their ball and going home, Balchunas said.

And part of me doesnt blame them. Its not just money its bandwidth, its attention.

The SEC spent years shooting down Bitcoin spot ETF applications before Grayscale filed a lawsuit against the regulator in protest in 2022.

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The courts agreed something was wrong.

In September, a judge found that the SEC had acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner by denying the applications.

So Grayscale was able to convert its Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF finally giving the option for investors to exit the fund if they chose to. And 10 other firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity, launched their own ETFs.

But the move backfired on Grayscale. Its ETF has hemorrhaged over $17 billion in Bitcoin since January, while BlackRock and Fidelitys funds have vacuumed more than $23 billion in assets.

Balchunas said Grayscale probably didnt expect outflows to be so violent.

Seventy-eight days of straight outflows. They broke all records, he said. They didnt realise how hardcore the US ETF market is.

At issue was Grayscales 1.5% management fee, which turned out to be multiples higher than their competitors 0.2% or 0.3% fees.

They probably thought everybody would be between 0.7% and 1%, so they wouldnt be too far away at 1.5%, Balchunas said.

Grayscales Ethereum trust has almost $9 billion in assets which would likely bleed away if the vehicle were converted into a proper ETF.

These funds are trapped, as the current structure doesnt permit redemptions. Grayscale makes a solid 2.5% fee on those assets.

The other issue is that demand for an Ethereum ETF simply isnt as strong as for the Bitcoin ETF.

Balchunas predicted that, if they do launch, Ethereum ETFs will only get about 10% to 15% of the assets that Bitcoin ETFs garnered.

Grayscale has less to lose by not fighting for the Ethereum ETFs, Balchunas said. Bitcoin ETFs are the headlining act.

Ethereum ETFs will never have the same fever pitch attention around their approval.

Tom Carreras is a markets correspondent at DL News. Got a tip about Grayscale and Ethereum ETFs? Reach out at tcarreras@dlnews.com

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Grayscale fought hard for Bitcoin ETFs. Why it won't bother with Ethereum - DLNews