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And while his U-turn may have been unpopular, European leaders will now get to focus on the decision to support Ukraine rather than discussing succession plans, as Michel will stay on until the end of November instead of taking up his European Parliament seat in mid-July.

Those who defend him say there was little pressure anyway. Michel staying doesnt make a difference. He wasnt leaving now anyway, said a third diplomat. Running for elections is what they [politicians] do.

Still, Michels announcement earlier this month fired the firing gun on the European top jobs race. European capitals have now actively been thinking (if they werent already) about how to distribute the top jobs at the European Council, Commission, Parliament, and the EUs diplomatic service after the European election in June.

Mette Frederiksen, the current socialist prime minister of Denmark, is a name that continues to be floated around Brussels. For some, she is seen as too right-wing on migration, but that could be a political plus if the European Parliament swings more to the right, as is expected.

But Southern European socialists still hope Portuguese Prime Minister Antnio Costa, who was the frontrunner to replace Michel, will be untouched by a corruption investigation that forced his government to resign.

Another name being repeated in Brussels is former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, who has been tasked with drawing up a report on the future of the single market for European leaders.

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'Everyone is just tired' of Charles Michel - POLITICO Europe

In early January, Ukrainian drones blew up a gas terminal near St. Petersburg. In December, Ukrainian operatives even managed to set off explosives on Russian railway lines deep in Siberia, hundreds of miles from the war. Well see more of these attacks inside Russia as fear rises in Kyiv that Ukraine is running out of ways to put Russian forces on the back foot on the battlefield.

The attacks are more a sign of Ukraines fears than of its strength. After hundreds of thousands of casualties and the displacement of millions of people, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals have new reasons to doubt the staying power of the Western support on which a Ukrainian victory, in any form, will depend. Aware that voters in America, its key military ally, and Europe, both a military and financial backer, are increasingly conflicted about whether Ukraine can ever evict Russian invaders from their trenches and recapture the 18% of territory they occupy, Kyiv is rightly worried.

Even if Congress approves more military aid for 2024, this will probably be the last package from Washington until after the November election. If Donald Trump wins, Ukrainians know he will drastically cut aid. The outlook in Europe is only slightly better. German budgetary problems, growing Hungarian opposition, and a lack of E.U. leadership will make it hard to fill the gap in military help from Washington over the medium term.

Read More: Inside Ukraine's Plan to Arm Itself

In the meantime, as Vladimir Putin shifts Russias economy onto a war footing, Ukraine knows it must mobilize and train hundreds of thousands of new recruits. Kyiv is considering mobilizing 500,000 additional troops. Even if that proves possible, it isnt sustainable in a war against an invader with a much bigger population and economy. Thats why Kyiv is fast becoming more desperate. Its doing its best to scale up its domestic defense production, especially of drones for the battlefield and for hitting targets inside Russia.

Thats where the danger grows for those not directly involved in the war. Zelensky is already taking bigger risks to turn the war around and maintain his political standing at home, including more aggressive attacks against targets inside Russia and occupied areas of Ukraine. It means a higher likelihood of targeted killings of Russian officials connected to the war, and frequent strikes with drones and missiles in Crimea and on Russian military and economic infrastructure, possibly including oil and grain facilities on the Black Sea that could again disrupt global markets. New attacks are also likely on the Kerch Strait bridge, which links Crimea to the Russian mainland. That, in turn, would provoke more intensive Russian attacks against Ukrainian cities. Any of these attacksand there are many possible targetsrisks a retaliation from Putin that brings NATO more directly into the conflict. Neither Russia nor NATO wants that expansion, but wars take on a life of their own, particularly with one of the key playersin this case, Zelenskybecoming a wildcard to watch.

Read more:
The Risk of a Zelensky Wild Card - TIME

Johnson and McConnell talk one-on-one regularly, including several times before Johnson first met with Senate Republicans last fall. During that first meeting, Johnson told GOP senators that he needed border security in order to deliver new Ukraine money. Right now, though, some of McConnells Republicans warn that hes failing to read a House GOP that has no interest in policy achievements with Biden in office.

If youre going to take a tough vote, you take one but you want to accomplish something. The worst of all possible worlds is you take a vote, you put a lot of political pressure on the House and you dont get any policy accomplished, said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), a Ukraine aid skeptic.

Were going to take a vote that only harms us politically, Vance added. It also puts our House colleagues in a bad position.

The Senate minority leader and the speaker are almost exactly 30 years apart in age, but they can bond over one thing: the shared challenge of taming an unruly, Trump-aligned right flank that often seeks to undermine them. As Congress inches toward a decision on a border-Ukraine deal, conservatives in both chambers are growing bolder in their public criticism and private pushback against party leaders.

The former president, now Republicans likely 2024 nominee, is propelling that rebellion. As the Biden administration warns Ukraine is effectively out of money, Trump is influencing Johnsons resistance to bipartisan Senate negotiations and mucking up McConnells plans.

Already McConnell acknowledged to his colleagues that Trumps ascendance is threatening the nascent agreement. Shortly afterward, Johnson blasted the ongoing Senate negotiations for good measure, signaling they arent hardline enough for him to accept.

We dont know if the House would take up and pass anything we pass in the Senate, said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a McConnell ally. People wonder: Why should we do this if its not going anywhere? Especially if its a hard vote for some people.

Separated by a generation of GOP politics, the two leaders are now playing to two completely opposite wings of the party. McConnell was elected to the Senate in 1984, the Reagan eras peak, while Johnson won his House seat in 2016 alongside Trump and it shows, as he coordinates closely with the former president these days.

The Senate GOP leader is nearing the end of a record-breaking term atop the conference, looking to lock down his legacy by ensuring his party helps fund Ukraines defense against Russia. Johnson, meanwhile, is fighting a day-to-day battle for political survival after vaulting out of obscurity into the speakership, charting a Trump-centric course for House Republicans.

Sen. John Neely Kennedy (R-La.), who knows both GOP leaders, acknowledged the two have differences in policy and experience but argued that the gap between Mitch and Mike is not that great.

House conservatives dont exactly agree. Theyre not willing to toss Johnson from the speakership yet, but most view McConnell with deep skepticism, if not open hostility. At times, Johnson sounds much like McConnell when promoting a strong border deal alongside Ukraine aid but hes also aggressively distanced himself from the Senates negotiations.

One Johnson ally, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that the House GOP sees itself as more closely aligned with the average Republican voter, particularly when it comes to Ukraine aid and immigration.

[McConnell] and Schumer have ruled this place for way too long. And financially we cannot afford the two of them. Thats why were really calling on Mike to stand strong, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said.

Theres a more urgent matter for Johnson, too: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is warning that if he allows a vote on $60 billion in Ukraine, then she would force a vote to oust him. Given his increasingly narrow majority, it would only take three Republicans to topple him unless he gets help from Democrats. Potential Republican absences could narrow that margin further.

I would introduce the motion to vacate myself, Greene said, predicting that Johnson wont bring a Senate deal to the House floor.

Its not just outright threats to strip Johnson of his gavel. His conservatives have shown theyre willing to jam up the House floor in retaliation for decisions he makes that they dont like. From the other side of the ideological spectrum, hes also facing criticism from one-time leadership allies who want him to reign in his hardliners and doubts about his ability to handle the challenge.

What were finding out is that Mike Johnson is in over his head, said one House Republican who knows both GOP leaders and requested anonymity to speak frankly a criticism his allies say confuses his willingness to listen with indecision.

McConnell faces his own internal discord. Hes coming to grips with the reality that Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee, which creates fresh headaches given that McConnell essentially disowned Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Trump has responded with regular attacks on the GOP leader and his family.

Trump also helped fuel the first-ever challenge to McConnells leadership in 2022 from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). McConnell defeated Scott handily but remains saddled with a group of critics seeking to undercut his leadership, most recently by killing the Ukraine-immigration negotiations.

When McConnell spoke of Trumps opposition to a border-Ukraine deal and the challenges that posed during a private meeting last week, some Republicans saw it as a change in strategy.

I think he cleared it up that [linking the two is] not going to work out, said Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who opposed McConnell and opposes more Ukraine aid.

McConnells allies have countered that he was misconstrued, going so far as to request the release of a transcript from that meeting to clear up the matter. They say the leader is as focused as ever on finishing the deal. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said that maybe some people read between the lines, wishful thinking, but that any hint of a shift from the leader was incorrect.

Even so, McConnell and Johnson now find themselves at a crossroads. McConnell must assess whether theres enough support in his conference to handily pass the foreign aid and border package. A vote total that squeaks it through the Senate gives it no chance in the House.

And Johnson must decide whether hes willing to open another front with his critics, who are already dogging him for his legislative strategy. In many ways, their fates are intertwined.

I have no idea what hell do, Kennedy said of Johnson. If we dont get 25, preferably 30, [Republican] votes for a bill over here, it makes it that much less likely that hell be able to get it to the floor.

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The huge wedge between McConnell and Johnson: Donald Trump - POLITICO

The Russian military has lost approximately 2,600 main battle tanks and 4,900 other armored combat vehicles in Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022, British intelligence said in a report published on Jan. 29.

Read also: UK Defense Intelligence pegs Russian casualties in Ukraine as high as 290,000

Russia lost about 40% less equipment in 2023 than in 2022, intelligence officials said.

The decrease in the rate of losses was due to the increasingly positional nature of the war in 2023, as well as the fact that Russia spent a significant part of the year in a defensive posture.

The intelligence service notes that, since the beginning of October 2023, the Russian army has been on the offensive in eastern Ukraine. During this period, the losses of Russian armored vehicles increased, with Russia losing up to 365 tanks and 700 armored vehicles, with only minor territorial gains.

Read also: Whole graveyard of Russian military equipment in war-torn region north of Avdiivka

British intelligence believes that Russia will likely be able to produce at least 100 tanks per month, and therefore "retains the capacity to replace battlefield losses and continue this level of offensive activity for the foreseeable future."

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Jan. 29 that, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost 11,696 armored combat vehicles, including 25 over the past day alone.

Forbes reported on Jan. 10 that during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the aggressor lost at least 2,619 tanks, which is at least 90% of the total number of tanks the Russian military had in service.

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UK intel reveals how many armored vehicles Russian forces have lost in Ukraine since February 2022 - Yahoo News

Hungary has vowed to challenge EU blackmail after a draft plan emerged to cripple Budapests economy if it blocked a 50 billion aid package for Ukraine.

The row was sparked by a report that suggested Brussels had drawn up proposals to target Hungarian finances if Viktor Orban, the prime minister, refused to drop his veto at a Brussels summit this week.

A leaked document, cited in a report by the Financial Times, suggested EU officials were preparing to cut off funding to Hungary to trigger a run on its currency and spook investors to hit jobs and growth in the Central European state.

The sabotage plot was allegedly drawn up to be used as a form of punishment unless the Hungarian leader agreed to drop his veto over the four-year plan to shore up Ukraines war-stricken economy.

But instead it was used in a mounting political stand-off between Budapest and Brussels over the blocs support for Kyiv.

The initial row was sparked in December last year when Mr Orban refused to sign off on the financial package, known as the Ukrainian facility, at a European Council summit. He has vowed to block it again at an emergency gathering on Thursday.

Brussels is using blackmail against Hungary like theres no tomorrow, despite the fact we have proposed a compromise, Balasz Orban, the prime ministers political director, said.

Now, its crystal clear: this is blackmail and has nothing to do with the rule of law. And now theyre not even trying to hide it.

Janos Boka, Hungarys EU minister, added: The document, drafted by Brussels bureaucrats, only confirms what the Hungarian government has been saying for a long time: access to EU funds is used for political blackmailing.

The leak also triggered an internal row within the EU as sources suggested the apparent threat had lowered the bloc to the prime ministers level.

The Hungarian premier has repeatedly blocked or frustrated attempts by Brussels to support Ukraine or hammer Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

He is seen as Vladimir Putins closest ally within the European Union.

The US has accused Mr Orban of acting in the interest of the Russian president by maintaining close ties with Moscow.

A senior EU official poured cold water on the FTs report, saying it does not reflect the status of the ongoing negotiations and the document does not outline a plan.

The European Commission said it was not aware of the proposal to cripple Hungarys economy.

Diplomats denied knowledge of the document, suggesting it had not been discussed at any significant level as a potential plan, and described it as spin.

But most said the leak was evidence of the growing despair Brussels has with Budapests ability to snarl up decision-making with its veto.

Were not willing to further entertain his antics, a diplomat said.

An insider added: Patience is wearing thin with Orban.

If Brexit hadnt happened I think Hungary would have been confronted much more forcefully before now.

However, on Monday night there was hope of a compromise by Hungary when EU leaders met to discuss the Ukraine fund on Thursday.

Budapest has told national capitals it will allow the 50 billion in loans and grants for Kyiv to be funded from the blocs budget as long as it can veto the scheme in the future through an annual review.

Ahead of the summit, some EU leaders and the European Parliament had mulled over a plan to remove Hungarys voting rights by triggering Article 7.

However, many European capitals deemed this measure to be extreme and suggested it would not get unanimous support from the member states.

Another plan B drawn up by European officials would see the blocs 26 other members finance the aid for Kyiv among themselves.

Brussels has often used economic threats against member states, including Hungary and Poland in disputes over the rule of law and Greece during the Eurozone crisis.

But it has never gone as far as threatening to crash a member states economy for not falling in line with a bloc-wide plan.

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Hungary vows to defy EU's economic 'blackmail' over Ukraine funding - Yahoo! Voices