Archive for the ‘Ukraine’ Category

Short on Soldiers, Ukraine Debates How to Find the Next Wave of Troops – The New York Times

Soldiers fight in freezing, muddy trenches bombarded by artillery, or in warrens of burned and blown-up houses in urban combat. Casualty rates are high, and dangerous missions, like storming enemy-held tree lines, abound.

As they planned for a renewal of Ukraines military under extreme conditions, both the countrys former top commander and his replacement have emphasized the same looming problem: a need to relieve exhausted, battered troops whose combat tours have stretched nearly two years.

In a tumultuous week for Ukraines war effort, President Volodymyr Zelensky removed his commanding general, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, on Thursday, while aid from the countrys largest source of weapons and ammunition, the United States, hung in doubt in Congress.

While Ukraine relies on allies for weaponry, replenishing the ranks is a domestic challenge. Small protests have broken out in opposition to a Parliament proposal to expand the draft to include younger men, but so far, lawmakers have slow-walked the measure.

Military analysts have mostly coalesced around the idea that Ukraine will, at best, hold existing front lines in ground fighting this year with a new influx of American weaponry and risk falling back without it. It plans to replenish its ranks through mobilization while keeping Russia off balance with long-range drone strikes and sabotage operations behind enemy lines and inside Russia.

In announcing the appointment of Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky to command the military, Mr. Zelensky said he wanted a new management team for the armed forces. He has signaled a search for a new strategy that accounts for exhausted frontline soldiers in Ukraines million-man army, which is fighting the largest war in Europe since World War II.

We are having trouble retrieving the article content.

Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.

Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit andlog intoyour Times account, orsubscribefor all of The Times.

Thank you for your patience while we verify access.

Already a subscriber?Log in.

Want all of The Times?Subscribe.

Read the original here:
Short on Soldiers, Ukraine Debates How to Find the Next Wave of Troops - The New York Times

Opinion | Ukraine supporters need to find a way around the MAGA obstructionists – The Washington Post

For months, MAGA lawmakers in both the House and Senate have been able to stop more U.S. aid going to Ukraine by pretending to be negotiating in good faith. Now, responsible lawmakers in both chambers are finally realizing that obstructionism is not a means to an end for the MAGA crowd it is their end. To get national security funding done or anything else in Congress leaders in both parties must work against or around them, not with them.

On Thursday, the Senate began debating a national security emergency supplemental bill that includes about $60 billion related to Ukraine and another $35 billion for Israel, the Indo-Pacific and to replenish U.S. weapons stocks. This bill was delayed for four months because House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his MAGA allies insisted they would support Ukraine aid only in conjunction with a deal to address the border. But then Johnson and the MAGA crowd (prodded by former president Donald Trump) came out against that border deal even before it was released a sure indication their demand for concessions was merely a delay tactic.

After the border-related provisions were jettisoned, 17 Senate Republicans voted with Senate Democrats Thursday to move forward with the rest of the package. In the Senate, at least, there are still Republicans willing to put national security over politics when the stakes are so high. The delays have already caused critical ammunition shortages for Ukrainian forces in the fight. We cannot abandon these allies and partners as they face existential threats, Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) said before the vote.

But that rare moment of political courage masks a cold reality: House Republicans have shown no sign of having similar backbone. Johnson wont even commit to bringing the Senate bill to the House floor. He is under pressure from MAGA lawmakers and outside conservative groups to permanently stop the Ukraine aid effort.

Until now, Johnson has walked a fine line: professing to be open to passing Ukraine aid while doing everything possible to avoid actually doing anything about it. For four months, his excuse was to point to the Senates inaction. Then last week, just before the Senate bill was unveiled, he showed his true intentions by introducing a bill that would provide aid for Israel, but not Ukraine.

Johnson argued that Israel aid was more urgent than Ukraine aid (it isnt). He even enlisted the American Israel Public Affairs Committee to pressure lawmakers to vote yes. But the White House and many Democrats called out Johnsons ploy for what it was a way to delay and perhaps kill any effort to pass Ukraine aid.

If this bill were to become law, there is no path to support Ukraine, House Appropriations Committee ranking Democrat Rosa DeLauro (Conn.) said Tuesday on the House floor. Although 46 Democrats did vote for the Israel-only aid legislation, it failed to get enough support to advance.

Now, the House leadership is telling other GOP members that it will not take up the Senate national security package as is, several congressional officials told me. Johnson might break up the Senate package into three parts and pass only the sections that he and the MAGA crowd likes. He might write his own Ukraine aid bill, which could have significantly less aid.

Some Republicans believe Johnson feels he must change the bill in some way to save face with the MAGA crowd and then he would be willing to pass it. Under this theory, Johnson wants to pass the aid but needs political cover to get it done. However, once he starts tinkering with it, he opens a legislative Pandoras box that could delay the funding for weeks if not months. That would be too late for Ukraine.

Johnsons team are not even going to try to pass the bill the Senate sends over. They are scared of MTG, one GOP congressional source told me, referring to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) who has worked for years to kill Ukraine aid and who has referred to Ukrainian forces as a Nazi army. In fact, they dont really have the political incentive to do anything quickly.

In the face of this, Ukraine supporters have begun discussing ways to force the Senate bill to the House floor. One method under discussion is something called a discharge petition, which could initiate a floor vote without the speakers cooperation. These types of legislative maneuvers are tricky and rare, but they might be the only way to get the aid package to the presidents desk.

National-security-minded Democrats and Republicans must move quickly to pass the full funding through both chambers, using whatever maneuvers it takes. If MAGA obstructionism continues to go unchecked, Congresss impotence will have negative consequences far beyond the Ukrainian battlefield.

Read the original here:
Opinion | Ukraine supporters need to find a way around the MAGA obstructionists - The Washington Post

Moldova destroyed explosives found in a Shahed drone that strayed from the war in Ukraine – Yahoo News

BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) Authorities in Moldova said Monday they destroyed explosives discovered in a part of a Shahed drone that crashed on its territory from the war in neighboring Ukraine, while the foreign minister condemned Russia's constant barbaric attacks across the border.

Police said that 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of explosives were discovered during an investigation of the Shahed drone parts found on Sunday at a crash site near Moldovas southern town of Etulia, close to the border with Ukraine. All of the drone components have been collected and defused, police said.

Border police suspected the debris came from one of the drones that was shot down by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft system during overnight attacks launched on Friday by Russian forces on Ukraines Izmail region. The distance between Etulia and Izmail is about 40 kilometers (25 miles).

Moldova's Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi condemned Russias constant barbaric attacks against Ukraine, which he said directly affects Moldova. Remnants of Shahed drone, found today in the south of the country near the border, are a stark reminder of the violence and destruction sown by the Kremlin, he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

It is the latest incident from the war next door to rattle non-NATO Moldova, which became a European Union candidate member in June 2022. Last year, Moldova also discovered missile and rocket fragments several times on its territory, some of which also contained explosives and required controlled detonations.

Since the war in Ukraine started on Feb. 24, 2022, Moldova has faced a multitude of problems including a severe energy crisis after Moscow dramatically reduced gas supplies, skyrocketing inflation, and what officials have routinely said are attempts by Moscow to destabilize the country. Russia denies the accusations.

View post:
Moldova destroyed explosives found in a Shahed drone that strayed from the war in Ukraine - Yahoo News

Russia’s Aviation Body Allegedly Allowed Aircraft Export to Ukraine Izvestia – The Moscow Times

Officials from Russias state civil aviation agency Rosaviatsia have been accused of de-registering aircraft that were later used by the Ukrainian military, the pro-Kremlin tabloid Izvestia reported Monday, citing anonymous law enforcement and Transportation Ministry sources.

A Transport Ministry inspection in July revealed that 59 planes and helicopters had been illegally removed from Russias civil aircraft register between March 2022 and June 2023, according to the publication.

Izvestia said 36 of the aircraft had been sold abroad, eight of which ended up in countries deemed unfriendly by Moscow.

Three Mi-8 transport helicopters were allegedly used by Kyiv in its ongoing defense against invading Russian forces, according to one of the publication's sources, while an Il-76 transport plane had made cargo deliveries.

Russias Federal Security Service (FSB) pressed criminal charges against three Rosaviatsia officials.

The first charge of negligence carries a maximum punishment of three months in jail, while the second charge of abuse of power is punishable by up to seven years in prison.

Police officers and FSB agents reportedly raided Rosaviatsias Moscow headquarters on Feb. 7, with law enforcement seizing documents belonging to flight safety inspection chief Kristina Byvalina, her former deputy Anna Zhiltsova and civil aircraft registration deputy chief Pyotr Kozyrev.

It was not clear whether the officials were taken into custody.

Izvestias sources claimed the aircraft de-registration scandal led to the dismissalof formerRosaviatsia chief Alexander Neradko in September.

Neradko worked at the agency for 14 years and could face criminal prosecution.

Rosaviatsia, the Transport Ministry, the FSB and the Interior Ministry did not respond to Izvestias requests for comment.

The reported civil aircraft de-registration took place as the Russian aviation sector was hit hard by Western sanctions following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In response, Russia hasseized $10 billion worth of aircraft leased from Western companies and limited flights to so-called friendly countries" to avoid the planes from being impounded.

Read this article:
Russia's Aviation Body Allegedly Allowed Aircraft Export to Ukraine Izvestia - The Moscow Times

Ukraine’s Victory at Sea: How Kyiv Subdued the Russian Fleetand What It Will Need to Build on Naval Success – Foreign Affairs Magazine

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Kyivs maritime prospects looked bleak. Ukraine had inherited a small number of ships when the Soviet Union broke apart, but Russia destroyed or confiscated most of these when it occupied Crimea in 2014. Then, in 2018, Russia seized three of Ukraines remaining vessels and prevented its civilian ships from entering the Kerch Strait, the waterway separating the Crimean Peninsula from mainland Russia. Russia quickly reopened the strait and eventually returned the ships, but the moves laid bare Ukraines naval impotence. By the time of the next invasion, the Ukrainian navys flagshipan aging frigateled a meager force consisting of one small warship, several small missile boats, and a handful of helicopters. Two weeks after the war began, Ukrainian commanders were compelled to scuttle the flagship, lest it fall into Moscows hands. Russia sank many of the smaller vessels.

Over the next year and a half, however, Ukraine turned the naval war around. Using drones, cruise missiles, and a variety of unconventional techniques, Ukraine had, by October 2023, driven the Russian fleet from its main base in Crimea to the eastern corner of the Black Sea. The countrys navy succeeded in sinking nine major Russian ships and even reoccupying some lost territory. These victories have been a bright spot for a country that is under continual air attack and stuck in a costly stalemate on the ground.

Kyivs maritime accomplishments will not win the war, but those victories will help the country succeed more broadly. Winning at sea has allowed Kyiv to take troops that were stationed along the coast and send them to the front. It has secured shipping lanes that are crucial to exporting grain and complicated Russian efforts to supply and reinforce Crimea. Over time, Ukraine can build on this success, increasing its leverage in future peace negotiations. For this strategy to succeed, however, Kyiv will require an uninterrupted flow of military aid from the West.

When the invasion began, the Russian Black Sea Fleet was far mightier than its Ukrainian equivalent, consisting of the battle cruiser Moskva, five frigates, six modern submarines, 13 tank landing ships, and many smaller vessels suitable for coastal defense. Fighter jets, patrol aircraft, and helicopters supported the fleet. With this overwhelming force, the Russian navy encroached on the Ukrainian coast, launching missiles at Ukrainian cities, and landing forces at the port ofMariupol. To prevent a landing near Odessa, Ukraine had to stationan infantry brigade and a powerful armored brigadealong the coasttaking 5,000 trained troops and 100 tanks out of play as fighting raged around the countrys two largest cities, Kharkiv and Kyiv.

But Russias early success did not last. A month into the war, Ukrainian missiles fired from drones sank several Russian patrol boats. In the most spectacular episode of the Ukrainian comeback, two antiship missiles launched from the Ukrainian coaststruck the Moskva in April 2022. The Russian navy tried to tow the damaged ship to its base in Crimea, but the vessel sank en route. It was the largest warship sunk in battle since the British torpedoed the Argentine cruiser Belgrano in 1982 during the Falklands War.

Two months later, after the Moskvas demise, theUkrainian military pushed Russian forces off Snake Island, which is located along shipping lanes near Ukraines southern coast. The island became famous in the early days of the war after its Ukrainian defenders sent an expletive-laden message of defiance as Russia took the island. But after repeated Ukrainian missile attacks on resupply vessels, the Russian troops stationed on the island were forced to withdraw in June 2022.

According to calculations from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russia has lost about 40 percent of its naval tonnage in the Black Sea since February 2022. In addition to the Moskva, Ukrainian missiles and drones have destroyed or severely damaged two frigates, five tank landing ships, and a submarine. Strikes on Russian naval headquarters, shipyards, airfields, and air defense facilities in Crimea have weakened the fleets shore-based defenses, command-and-control networks, and logistical support. To protect its remaining ships, Russiamoved most of themto its naval base at Novorossiysk, in the eastern part of the Black Sea. But even there, far away from the action, the ships were not safe. In August 2023, a Ukrainian sea drone crossed the Black Sea and damaged a Russian warship in the harbor.

Many of the weapons Ukraine has been using against the Russian fleet, although not new, had not been tested in a prolonged naval campaign. Ukraine has shown they can be remarkably effective. Two types of missiles have proved particularly useful. The first is the long-range antiship missile. Ukraine produces some of these missiles domestically and receives some from the United States. They have a range of 100 to 200 miles, enough to keep Russian ships far offshore, lest they suffer the same fate as the Moskva. Although the missiles were originally designed to be placed on ships, Ukraines military has adapted them for land-based launchers to reduce their vulnerability to counterstrikes. The second missile varietythelong-range, land-attack missilecomplements Ukraines antiship capabilities. Produced largely by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Ukraine itself, these weapons are fired at static locations and were designed for ground operations, not for striking highly mobile naval targets. By aiming at stationary ships in harbor, however, the Ukrainians have used these land-attack missiles to take out five of the nine major vessels that Russia has lost during the war.

Ukraines use of sea drones is an especially novel development in naval warfare. Operated remotely and difficult to spot, these weapons can reach deep into an adversarys maritime domain while carrying large payloads. And because operators follow the vessels movements via video link, they can adjust course, evade countermeasures, and even switch targets if the initial target is unavailable. According to the Ukrainian defense ministry, one such sea drone managed to sink a Russian ship stationed near Crimea in January 2024.

Accurate targeting information has been key to the success of the weapons systems Ukraine uses at sea. GPS-guided munitions must be programmed to hit the correct location at the correct time; hitting the dock after the ship leaves is a waste of a missile that Kyiv cannot afford. Even munitions that can adjust course midflight must be launched with enough accuracy for the missiles guidance system to find the target. The farther away that target is, the harder the task becomes. The advanced satellite, electronic surveillance, and other intelligence capabilities that the United States and other partners provide are critical.

Ukraine has won the battle for the Black Sea. Yet it will be some time before the full implications of this victory become clear, for the current war and for modern naval combat more broadly. The Ukrainian militarys routing of a vastly stronger navy could indicate that conventional surface ships have become obsolete, or it could merely serve as a warning to future naval combatants that without sound tactics and appropriate defensive systems, they, like Russia, will be vulnerable to attack.

Ukraines naval success does not spell an end to a war fought primarily on the ground. It does, however, give Kyiv several important advantages.One is political and psychological. Defeating the Russian fleet at sea boosts morale among Ukrainian civilians and military forces. And as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky makes the case for continued outside support for his countrys war effort, he can highlight this success. Ukraines backers, discouraged by the stalemate on the ground and relentless Russian attacks from the air, can point to the naval victory as evidence that military success is possible.

With Russian ships driven far from Ukrainian shores, the threat of an amphibious attack is gone. Ukraine has therefore been able to redistribute the ground forces that had been guarding the shoreline and leave coastal defense to local militias. Ukrainian ports and coastal settlements are safer, too, easing the anxiety felt earlier in the war when gunfire and missile attacks from offshore Russian warships were a feature of everyday life.

Another benefit is the logistical challenge Russia now faces. Moscow is having an increasingly difficult time sending supplies to Crimea as Ukrainian missile attacks threaten Russian transport vessels and periodically shut down the Kerch Strait bridge, which connects the peninsula to mainland Russia. Although Russia can still send barges across the strait, this workaround strains an already troubled logistics system. Moreover, supply chain interruptions bring suffering to the Crimean population. The peninsulas increasing vulnerability may persuade Moscow to settle more quickly when peace negotiations finally begin. Otherwise, a weakened Russian military may be unable to fend off Ukrainian incursions, and a suffering population on the peninsula may choose reunification with Ukraine rather than continued hardship under Russian rule.

Finally, Ukraine has reducedbut not yet eliminatedRussias ability to interfere with grain exports from Odessa. Pushing back the Russian navy has allowed coastal traffic to move again. Although Russia backed out of a 2022 agreement allowing Ukrainian cargo ships carrying critical shipments of grain through the Black Sea, it has not tried to stop shipments from leaving Ukrainian ports. Moscow could still change its mind. But with its navy forced out of the area, it has only two remaining methods for blocking Ukrainian shipments: laying mines and using its submarines to attack cargo ships. Ukraines control of the sea makes these alternatives more difficult. Russia would need to have ships or aircraft to lay mines, and both would be vulnerable to Ukrainian countermeasures as they approach the Ukrainian coast. Submarine attacks on cargo ships, meanwhile, would invite global condemnation, including among developing countries that rely on imported grain and whose support Russia seeks.

Ukraine needs help from its allies to sustain these advantages. Although Kyivs supply of antiship missiles is likely sufficient for now, given their relatively infrequent use, the Ukrainian military will certainly need more land-attack missiles from France, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Ukraine will also continue to rely on intelligence support from the United Kingdom, the United States, and other partners to identify targets and Russian vulnerabilities.

To build on its success, Ukraine will need to do more than reinforce its current capabilities. Most urgently, the country needs better equipment and training to clear sea mines. Russian mines still constrain Ukrainian operations by confining ships to a few easily interdicted channels. Western powers can provide small boats and equipment to find and eliminate mines at all depths. If Ukraine can neutralize Russias ability to block grain shipments through the Black Sea and can keep shipping lanes open, Moscow will lose a powerful source of leverage in any future peace negotiations.

The Ukrainian military must also learn to conduct antisubmarine warfare. Russias submarines in the Black Sea are essentially invulnerable; they can fearlessly strike any target at will. So far, Moscow has not used its submarines because of a lack of military targets, as there is nothing left in the Ukraines navy worth attacking, and it is reluctant to risk sinking other countries cargo ships. But submarines remain Russias trump card in naval combat; Moscow need only choose to play it. Ukraine, then, needs to figure out how to neutralize this threat.

Kyiv will have to get creative. It cant waste time and money trying to replicate the multibillion-dollar systems of sophisticated surface vessels, submarines, and aircraft that Western navies use to hunt enemy submarines. Ukraines fight does not echo the vast scale and existential stakes of submarine battles in the North Atlantic during World War II or NATOs massive efforts to counter hundreds of Soviet submarines during the Cold War. Kyiv just needs to exert enough pressure to make the five Russian submarines operating in the Black Sea pull backsomething it could accomplish with U.S. and NATO antisubmarine weapons and detection equipment adapted to operate on readily available small vessels. That would reduce threats to Ukrainian shipping and ease economic pressure on the Ukrainian government to make concessions in any eventual peace negotiations.

Finally, Ukraine should build a modest amphibious capability that can threaten Russian positions in Crimea and the Russian rear areas along the Black Sea coast. Small craft, which are available immediately from the United States and other NATO partners, would be sufficient tokeep Russian forces looking over their shoulders. Moreover, such small craft can be transported quickly overland, avoiding Russian submarines, as well as the complication of the Montreux Convention, a 1936 diplomatic agreement that allows Turkey to prevent the passage of warships through the straits that lead to the Black Sea. With an amphibious force poised near Russian-controlled territory, Ukraine could draw Russian troops away from the frontlines to defend the coastthe same tactic Russia used against Ukraine at the beginning of the war.Eventually, Ukraine might also use this amphibious capability as part of a campaign to retake Crimea.

Such an offensive is not possible today. Crimea is strongly defended, and an amphibious assault on it would be extremely complex. Instead, periodic raids into Crimea, such as those Ukraine has conducted in the nearby Kherson region, would make the amphibious threat credible and distract the Russians from the key ground battles inland.

Ukraines naval success is dramatic and unprecedented, but the tide of victory could ebb if the United States and other Ukrainian partners cut their assistance. If Ukraine cannot replace the munitions it fires and the equipment it loses in battle, Russian forces will again encroach on Ukrainian coasts and reestablish secure supply lines through Crimea. Were that to happen, Ukraines victory at sea could be fleeting.

Loading... Please enable JavaScript for this site to function properly.

Excerpt from:
Ukraine's Victory at Sea: How Kyiv Subdued the Russian Fleetand What It Will Need to Build on Naval Success - Foreign Affairs Magazine