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The first-in-the-nation primary could be the last stand for the anti-Trump Republican.

Since 2016, a shrinking band of Republican strategists, retired lawmakers and donors has tried to oust Donald J. Trump from his commanding position in the party. And again and again, through one Capitol riot, two impeachments, three presidential elections and four criminal indictments, they have failed to gain traction with its voters.

Now, after years of legal, cultural and political crises that upended American norms and expectations, what could be the final battle of the anti-Trump Republicans wont be waged in Congress or the courts, but in the packed ski lodges and snowy town halls of a state of 1.4 million residents.

Ahead of New Hampshires primary on Tuesday, the old guard of the G.O.P. has rallied around Nikki Haley, viewing her bid as its last, best chance to finally pry the former president from atop its party. Anything but a very close finish for her in the state, where moderate, independent voters make up 40 percent of the electorate, would send Mr. Trump on an all-but-unstoppable march to the nomination.

The Trump opposition is outnumbered and underemployed. The former presidents polarizing style and hard-nosed tactics have pushed many Republicans who oppose him into early retirement and humiliating defeats, or out of the party completely. Yet, their long-running war against him has helped to frame the nominating contest around a central, and deeply tribal, litmus test: loyalty to Mr. Trump.

Gordon J. Humphrey, a former New Hampshire senator, was a conservative power broker during the Reagan era but left the party after Mr. Trump won the presidential nomination in 2016. This year, he has produced anti-Trump Facebook videos aimed at encouraging college students and independent voters who, polls show, are more likely to support Ms. Haley over Mr. Trump.

Its very big stakes, Mr. Humphrey, 83, said. If he wins here, Trump will be unstoppable.

Campaigning across the state this week for Ms. Haley, Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, a moderate Republican, argued that the man who remade the party in his image is not its best standard-bearer.

Trump does not represent the Republican Party, said Mr. Sununu as he campaigned with Ms. Haley at a rustic event space in Hollis, N.H. He does not represent the conservative movement. Trump is about Trump.

Large numbers of Republicans disagree. Mr. Trump, who was trailing in some primary polls only a year ago, now has support from nearly two-thirds of the party, according to an average of national polls by the data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight. In the Iowa caucuses on Monday, Mr. Trump demolished his rivals by nearly 30 percentage points, winning almost every demographic, geographic region and other slice of the electorate.

Elected Republicans have rallied around the former president. On Friday, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina endorsed Mr. Trump at a rally in Concord, N.H. Even Mr. Sununu Ms. Haleys most potent political backer in New Hampshire has acknowledged that he would support Mr. Trump if he wins the partys nomination for a third time.

Some of Mr. Trumps strongest opponents doubt that after so many defeats, they will be successful. Barbara Comstock, a longtime Republican official who was swept out of her suburban Virginia congressional seat in the 2018 midterm backlash to Mr. Trump, said she believed the former president would win the nomination. The only way the party will finally be rid of Mr. Trump, she said, is if he loses in 2024, an outcome she thinks could cost Republicans scores of congressional seats.

He has to lose and drag down even more people with him on the ballot and thats the only thing that changes it, said Ms. Comstock, who opposes Mr. Trump. You lose, and its bad, and you lost for a second time to a really weak guy.

Recent polling that shows Ms. Haley trailing Mr. Trump by double digits in New Hampshire underscores her uphill battle on Tuesday. Yet even if Ms. Haley can overcome the odds in New Hampshire, she faces the question of whats next.

A loss next month in a crucial matchup in her home state of South Carolina, where she also trails by double digits, could depress her momentum heading into March, when two-thirds of all Republican primary delegates are up for grabs.

But a victory would give her momentum heading into the Super Tuesday contests on March 5. Twelve of the 16 primaries on Super Tuesday allow independents or other voters to participate, a dynamic that has helped keep Ms. Haley competitive in New Hampshire.

The extraordinary nature of this primary race could alter those calculations. Some strategists say that if Ms. Haley does not win outright, she should hold on until the Supreme Court decides whether Mr. Trumps name will appear on the ballot in Colorado, Maine and other states. Democrats and some election officials have argued that his role in trying to overthrow the 2020 election should disqualify him for running again.

Still, the strong loyalty Mr. Trump continues to command within his own party has caused Ms. Haley and her backers to make a careful, and somewhat tortured, case for her nomination. Ms. Haley has continued to temper her attacks on Mr. Trump, casting her candidacy less as an existential choice about the future of democracy and more as a moment of generational change.

Speaking to reporters at a diner in Amherst, Ms. Haley cautiously drew a contrast between herself and Mr. Trump. This is about, do you want more of the same? Or do you want something different? she said.

Ron DeSantis, Ms. Haleys other rival, is largely skipping the state to campaign in South Carolina, the next primary in the calendar and one where the Florida governor believes he has a better chance of making a strong showing.

New Hampshire primary voters have a history of propelling underdog candidates, including in 2000, when John McCain appealed to independents and defeated George W. Bush, who, like Mr. Trump, was the heavy favorite. A record 322,000 voters are expected to turnout for the Tuesday primary, according to the New Hampshire secretary of state. The surge could portend a spike in participation from independents, who can participate in the primary. So-called undeclared voters can take part by choosing a ballot from either party at the polling place.

Part of the problem faced by the anti-Trump wing is one of simple mathematics. A majority of the Republican Party remains staunchly supportive of the former president. But many of the moderate and independent voters who oppose Mr. Trump have voted for Democratic candidates in several election cycles, decreasing the likelihood that they would back another Republican candidate.

These changes have occurred along class lines, with college-educated and higher-income voters largely flocking to the Democratic Party. Mr. Trumps populist appeals boosted white working-class support for Republicans.

Many of the college-educated moderates who used to buttress strategies like this for people like McCain in New Hampshire have self-deported from the Republican Party, said Representative Matt Gaetz, a stalwart Trump backer from Florida. Like, Nikki Haley Republicans arent actually even Republicans anymore.

In a campaign memo earlier this month, top Trump strategists accused Ms. Haley of creating a campaign designed to co-opt and take over a G.O.P. nominating contest with non-Republicans and Democrats.

Mr. Trump has echoed that message as he campaigned across New Hampshire in recent days.

Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican primary, he said on Wednesday night in Portsmouth. Ms. Haley, he said, is endorsed by all of the RINOs, globalists, Never Trumpers and Crooked Joe Bidens biggest donors.

Ms. Haley has countered that is a lie, noting that Democrats have not been able to change their votes for months and cannot vote in a Republican primary. Any registered Democrat wishing to vote in the Republican primary had to change their party affiliation by Oct. 6. Nearly 4,000 voters did so before the deadline, according to the states secretary of state.

But Ms. Haley has also defended her appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.

What I am doing is telling people what Im for, she said during her CNN town hall on Thursday night. If independents and conservative and moderate Republicans like that, I love that. If conservative Democrats are saying, I want to come back home to the Republican Party, because they left it, I want them back.

At an American Legion hall in Rochester, N.H., several formerly Republican voters who opposed Mr. Trump said they were no longer sure how to describe their political affiliation.

I am not particularly happy with the way the Republican Party is headed, said Kristi Carroll, 51, who described herself as a stay-at-home mother and who came to hear Ms. Haley. I am not sure I am even Republican anymore. I am trying to figure it out.

Ms. Carroll backed Mr. Trump in 2016 but not in 2020. And she doesnt plan on supporting him in 2024 even if the former president wins the partys nomination.

After Iowa, I am pretty nervous about the direction of the country, and I am nervous that if Haley doesnt get the nomination, then I will be voting for a Democrat, which is fine, as long as it is not Trump, Ms. Carroll said. Isnt that awful? I hate to be like that, but thats the truth.

A few rows behind her in the crowded room, Chuck Collins, 62, a retired Navy captain and engineer from Alton Bay, N.H., said he used to consider himself a Republican. After voting for Democrats in the last two presidential elections, he now calls himself an independent. Still, he believed a moderate Republican wing would eventually re-emerge.

We have to have two healthy parties, whether youre Republican or Democrat, Mr. Collins said. You have to have two teams to have a game.

Michael Gold contributed reporting from Portsmouth, N.H.

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For the Anti-Trump Wing of the G.O.P., It All Comes Down to Tuesday - The New York Times

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State of the 2024 Republican primary: Where the race stands  Fox News

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State of the 2024 Republican primary: Where the race stands - Fox News

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We only care about damaging Donald Trump, said Schwartz. For better or for worse, the only thing you can do if you really want to stop Trump is to vote for Haley.

By his own admission, Schwartzs crusade is a long shot. As of October, when New Hampshire requires voters to select their party affiliation, just 3,500 people had switched their registration from Democratic to undeclared it will take many, many more undeclared voters to cast a ballot for Haley next week to make a noticeable dent in Trumps polling lead. History, moreover, is not on Schwartz side: Similar efforts to mobilize New Hampshires undeclared voters in 2020 and 2016 came up notably short. (Similarly, in 2008 Rush Limbaugh launched Operation Chaos to delay the Democrats settling on a nominee.)

But in our conversation, Schwartz explained why he thinks 2024 might be different.

The following has been edited for clarity and concision.

Is there any indication that your strategy is working?

I think the fact that over 3,500 Democrats became undeclared before the October deadline was one initial indicator. The other indicator is that weve heard in surveys that the top issue for over 90 percent of left-leaning undeclared voters is stopping Donald Trump. And then the third is that, anecdotally, I have been in so many conversations with people who say, Oh, Im a Democrat and I missed the registration deadline, but I wish I could have changed over to vote in the Republican primary. Almost all the undeclared voters that I have talked to and I talked to a lot of Democratic-leaning voters are considering voting in the Republican primary. Not all of them will get there, but we can bring a horse to water. We cant make them drink.

How much of your efforts were directed toward getting Democratic voters to switch their party affiliation to undeclared, and how much has been dedicated to persuading already undeclared voters to vote in the Republican primary for Haley?

I would say we made a very limited effort focused on Democrats, because everyone told us that the process was too complicated, and we werent going to get Democrats to become undeclared. We spent about $2,000 to send text messages to 38,000 people, and 3,500 Democrats switched to undeclared. Our focus has been on the 130,000 undeclared voters who voted in the 2020 Democratic primary, because theyre high-propensity voters in the primaries, and they can easily switch to vote in the Republican primary. Weve already spent over $500,000 on the undeclared voters.

What sort of messaging are you finding to be most effective with those voters?

You have to mention who people should vote for and at this point, thats Nikki Haley. You have to say that shes actually viable in the polls, because left-leaning undeclared voters will not vote in the Republican primary unless they think shes within a few points meaning they can make a difference and stop Trump.

Another very effective message from our testing is a comparison chart between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley on how they handled Jan. 6, how they approach racism and hatred in this country, and how they deal with military service and military veterans. Most left-leaning people have been barraged by the media to think that Trump and Haley are the same and theyre both MAGA one is just MAGA lite. What we are trying to explain is that if you think about the issues most important to our democracy, Haley and Trump are night and day.

And then the final message weve found effective is a more emotional message along the lines of Imagine how you will feel on January 23 if Trump loses, if he rages and sends angry tweets. People already know how angry they are at Trump, but everyone else is just complaining about it. Were actually giving people something concrete to do about it.

Are you finding that left-leaning undeclared voters have an instinctual opposition to voting for a Republican like Haley? Can you overcome that knee-jerk reaction?

When you first have the conversation with them, most people are disgusted by Nikki Haleys positions on abortion or climate change. I cant tell you how many times they say, Well, I wont vote for somebody who will pardon Donald Trump. My response to that is, So you would rather let the criminal win than help select the person whos going to pardon the criminal?

Were just trying to get people to see that if you write in Biden, youre throwing away your vote. If you write in Dean Phillips, youre not only throwing away your vote youre actually hurting Trumps competitors and therefore helping Trump win. For better or for worse, the only thing you can do if you really want to stop Trump is to vote for Haley.

The Democratic Party in New Hampshire has come out against your strategy. What do you make of their opposition?

They were opposed to Democrats becoming undeclared, which I understand although almost all those undeclared voters will go back to being Democrats after this primary. When I have said that Donald Trump is an existential and unique threat to our democracy, they have repeatedly said that Chris Christie and Nikki Haley are also existential threats to the planet and to our democracy, because of their positions on abortion and climate change. They have attacked me for taking a photo with the popular governor, Chris Sununu. So if you want extreme partisanship, I think theyre doing a good job of showing that.

Can you expect anything different, though? Is it reasonable to expect the Democratic Party of New Hampshire to get behind an effort to get people to vote for their opposition?

I would say that if youve spent 10 years saying that Donald Trump is a unique, existential threat to democracy, and then six months before the primary, you start saying that every Republican is a unique and existential threat, you have lost all of your credibility.

Trump has started alluding to efforts like yours in his stump speeches and citing them as examples of election interference. At a recent rally, he even called for Sununu to change the rules in New Hampshire to prevent Democrats and independents from voting in the Republican primary. Do you worry at all that youre playing into his efforts to discredit the outcome of the primary?

Its rich coming from Donald Trump, given that in 2020 he called upon Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary for the weakest candidate. I would also say that past attempts to change the rules have failed, and it is insulting to undeclared voters who have always voted and will continue to vote in the Republican primary. It shows a fear of undeclared voters and the power that they have, given that they are the largest voting bloc in New Hampshire.

It is a tactical mistake for him to say he doesnt want any undeclared voter to vote in the Republican primary. That may play well in other states, but it will not play well here in New Hampshire.

Trump is suggesting in his speeches that these efforts are being backed by shadowy Democratic interests. Can you say whos funding your efforts?

We raised $20,000 among family and friends when we launched this organization, and we have invested all of that money into voter data files and messaging campaigns. A couple of people who wanted to stop Trump saw our efforts, and they have given us $650,000.

I will say that, around November and December, we saw some very prominent businesspeople like Jamie Dimon and Reid Hoffman come out with a similar strategy of encouraging people to vote for Haley in the primary and Biden in the general. So this idea has caught on. Its not just taking hold among a fringe group.

After the primary, how will you know if your efforts have succeeded?

We only care about damaging Donald Trump. So even though we have very limited control of the results and how Nikki Haley performs, if she is able to close this race to within single digits, that shows its a competition. Thats one metric of success. We are also very data-driven, and we are doing a large randomized-control trial so we will be able to study if our efforts had any impact from a more academic perspective.

But is there a topline number of voters in the Republican primary that would indicate that left-leaning undeclared voters turned out in large numbers?

In 2012 and 2016, there were almost exactly 100,000 undeclared voters who voted in the Republican primary. In 2020, there were 130,000 undeclared voters who voted in the Democratic primary. So well view it as successful if approximately 130,000 undeclared voters vote in the Republican primary. We anticipate there will be about 160,000 registered Republicans.

So the turnout is superimportant. The only way you can beat Trump is with a large turnout, because hes going to get his core supporters, which will be somewhere between 100,000 and 130,000 voters. If the turnout is above 300,000 people, then an opponent has a chance to make it close.

If its successful, can this strategy travel to other states, or is it only viable in New Hampshire?

We envision this effort as a national effort but we also understand that if Trump wins by double digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the race is over and we will likely fold up. If, however, Nikki Haley can get this to a single-digit race well, South Carolina is a totally open primary, and the Democrats will have already voted on February 3. Michigan is a totally open primary.

If Nikki Haley can survive South Carolina which is a ruby-red Trump state then what we are most excited about is Super Tuesday. Virginia is a totally open primary with lots of voters who dont like Trump. Massachusetts is 61 percent independent and 30 percent Democratic. Colorado is a semi-open primary. Minnesota is semi-open primary. Vermont is an open primary. We think Nikki Haley, if she survived South Carolina, can win in all six of those states.

How likely do you think that is?

Some people will say that is a fantastical scenario. We know that it is an extremely narrow path, and we are realistic that Trump will likely be the nominee. But if Nikki Haley is going to win or have even a small chance of winning, this is what we think her narrow path will look like.

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Inside the campaign to get Democrats to vote for Nikki Haley - POLITICO - POLITICO

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Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), chair of the House Freedom Caucus, warned the majority of the Republican conference will be disappointed and upset if Johnson doesnt do more to fight for the anti-abortion policy riders that conservatives have demanded since last year.

Youre not going to get everything that you want when you have divided government, Good said. But the House majority ought to count for something. We should get at least half of what we want, shouldnt we?

Conservatives cheered the recent rise of Johnson, a longtime abortion opponent, and said they trusted him to deliver wins on abortion that proved elusive under his predecessor. But the Louisiana Republican has met intense pushback from swing district Republicans in his conference and from the Democratic-controlled Senate, which has vowed to block attempts to roll back abortion access. That leaves little room for Johnson to craft a deal that doesnt alienate at least some members of his caucus and isnt dead on arrival in the upper chamber.

Johnson and his allies, hoping to assuage irate conservatives, are arguing that his budget deal with Democrats which punts the fight into March gives House Republicans another opportunity to push for conservative policies in the coming weeks as lawmakers hammer out the details of individual spending bills.

The speaker has put us in a position to at least be able to negotiate, stressed Rep. Mario Daz-Balart (R-Fla.), who chairs the State and Foreign Operations subcommittee of the Appropriations Committee. A shutdown will do nothing except waste money and destroy our ability to get conservative wins.

Conservatives viewed the fight over government spending as their best and possibly only vehicle for undoing Biden administration policies expanding access to abortion, and they spent months adding provisions to nearly every appropriations bill. They proposed measures to ban mail delivery of abortion pills, reimpose anti-abortion restrictions on global HIV programs, block the military from funding service members travel across state lines for an abortion, cancel coverage of abortion for veterans, kick Planned Parenthood out of various federal health programs and ban state Medicaid programs from covering abortion.

But Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a senior appropriator, is tamping down expectations as members wait to see final bill text.

[Johnson] hasnt promised us policy wins, Cole said. Hes promised us that we can fight for policy wins.

Talk of the House GOPs anti-abortion priorities has largely evaporated amid the rollout of Johnsons spending deal with Democrats, with hardliners in an uproar over their spending and immigration demands. Several subcommittee chairs in charge of drafting individual spending bills before March said they have received no guidance from GOP leaders about whether the anti-abortion policies will make it in the final text. And several House lawmakers confirmed to POLITICO that Johnson hasnt mentioned the fate of specific anti-abortion provisions in their closed-door caucus meetings since the spending deal was announced.

Not a thing, one House GOP lawmaker, granted anonymity to discuss internal conference matters, noted after the latest meeting.

Some House Republicans insist theres still an opening to demand these measures as funding deadlines and the possibility of a government shutdown draw near. But others, pointing to the Houses narrow majority, the Senates vow to block the policies and the White Houses threat to veto bills if they are included, are acknowledging the math is not on their side.

I dont think any of this stuff passes without bipartisan support, said Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.). Its not surviving 60 votes in the Senate. Its just not.

During a press conference Wednesday, amid conservative angst over the fading prospects for restricting abortion through budget riders, Johnson stressed that hes managing the second-narrowest House majority in the countrys history, limiting what they can expect to achieve.

We wont get everything we want, he admitted.

The speaker also pledged to keep fighting for House Republicans conservative agenda, a careful phrase many members say they understand as aspirational at best.

They want to work to get our policies included. But I think we all recognize thatll be tough, one House Republican lawmaker, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, said of Johnsons team and its approach to abortion and a host of other GOP policy riders. The lawmaker expected the final funding bills to reflect a bipartisan compromise similar to the defense bill, which was stripped of anti-abortion policies Democrats deemed poison pills.

Johnson did not respond when asked about the fate of the budget riders Wednesday, and his office declined to comment.

If Johnson doesnt deliver on the riders, Then weve got a problem, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) warned, insisting that the provisions are still a priority for many conservatives.

The fear that House Republicans will likely have few wins to show voters in November on spending, immigration policy or their anti-abortion push is also drawing fire from outside groups.

I understand the numbers, said Tom McClusky, an anti-abortion lobbyist with the organization Catholic Vote, referencing the Houses slim majority. But what I dont understand is that there just doesnt even seem to be a fight. It doesnt even seem to be a factor with House leadership.

The Heritage Foundation which called Johnson the right person for the job in November is also ramping up pressure on House Republicans to include the anti-abortion measures.

Congress has to assert its constitutional authority to push back against these extreme pro-abortion regulations and policies coming out of the administration, and it does that through the power of the purse, said Roger Severino, Heritages vice president of domestic policy who held a prominent agency post in the Trump administration. He added that Congress should say to the executive branch: If you want money to do what youre supposed to do, which is serve our veterans or provide health care, etc., then you do it without the taint of abortion.

Asked whether GOP hardliners will try to hold up key funding bills in the coming weeks if their abortion policy demands are not included, Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), a Freedom Caucus member, didnt make any commitments. Instead, he said the sanctity of life should be defended at all cost.

Facing pushback from unhappy conservatives who made their dissatisfaction clear by blocking an unrelated bill last week House GOP leaders are now trying to rally GOP members around a pair of stand-alone bills endorsed by anti-abortion groups. One diverts federal funds to crisis pregnancy centers, which dont provide abortions and counsel patients against seeking them. Republicans argue the legislation will support pregnant people and children while avoiding the ire of centrists who oppose new abortion restrictions. The White House has threatened to veto the legislation.

Democratic leaders, meanwhile, have pledged for months to act as a firewall against the anti-abortion riders on spending bills.

Under no circumstances are we going to enact new restrictions on abortion in our spending bills like House Republicans have done in theirs, said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the Senate Appropriations chair. If Republicans insist on anti-abortion poison pills, they will only be pushing us closer to shutdown.

Discouraged by the fading prospects for attaching anti-abortion measures to the government spending bills, some members are discussing backup plans, such as hitching them to a possible national security supplemental or end-of-year package. But conservative veterans of funding battles are dismissing those ideas as unrealistic and arguing that Republicans are letting their best chance slip away.

Unless we can figure out a way of getting pro-life legislation on a post office naming, then I dont really know how much will be possible, McClusky said. This is just about the only bicameral opportunity to either get something done or at least fight and show the contrast between Republicans and Democrats.

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Republicans fume over lack of anti-abortion policies in funding fight - POLITICO - POLITICO

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Senator James Lankford, the Oklahoma Republican and staunch conservative, this week trumpeted the immigration compromise he has been negotiating with Senate Democrats and White House officials as one shaping up to be by far, the most conservative border security bill in four decades.

Speaker Mike Johnson, in contrast, sent out a fund-raising message on Friday denouncing the forthcoming deal as a Democratic con. My answer is NO. Absolutely NOT, his message said, adding, This is the hill Ill die on.

The Republican disconnect explains why, with an elusive bipartisan bargain on immigration seemingly as close as it has been in years on Capitol Hill, the prospects for enactment are grim. It is also why hopes for breaking the logjam over sending more U.S. aid to Ukraine are likely to be dashed by hard-line House Republicans.

The situation encapsulates the divide cleaving the Republican Party. On one side are the right-wing MAGA allies of former President Donald J. Trump, an America First isolationist who instituted draconian immigration policies while in office. On the other is a dwindling group of more mainstream traditionalists who believe the United States should play an assertive role defending democracy on the world stage.

The two wings coalesced last fall around a bit of legislative extortion: They would only agree to President Bidens request to send about $60 billion more to Ukraine for its fight against Russian aggression if he agreed to their demands to clamp down on migration at the United States border with Mexico. But now, they are at odds about how large of a price to demand.

Hard-right House Republicans, who are far more dug in against aid to Ukraine, have argued that the bipartisan border compromise brokered by their counterparts in the Senate is unacceptable. And they bluntly say they do not want to give Mr. Biden the opportunity in an election year to claim credit for cracking down on unauthorized immigration.

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With Deal Close on Border and Ukraine, Republican Rifts Threaten to Kill Both - The New York Times

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