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How did the Iowa result change the Republican primary? – The Economist
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Donald Trump dominated public-opinion polling before the Republican presidential primary in 2023. Yet his rivals could reasonably argue that the party faithful still had not cast any votes, and the actual results might reveal a greater appetite for an alternative than surveys suggested. Mr Trumps decisive victory in the Iowa caucus on January 15th seems to have put an end to that hopeful theory.
Some Republicans had predicted record attendance at Iowas caucuses this year, but turnout fell by around 40% from the peak in 2016. No doubt many voters opted to stay at home given the sub-zero temperatures and Mr Trumps apparent invincibility. But TV networks also began calling the race for the former president less than an hour after the caucuses began; some caucus-goers were even told that he had won before they had a chance to vote.
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Naming a victor while others are still voting was bad democratic hygiene but unlikely to sway the eventual outcome. Mr Trump won 51% of the vote and half of Iowas 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, took second place with 21% and nine delegates. Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor, fell to third with 19% and eight delegates. Vivek Ramaswamy, a bloviating biotech entrepreneur, finished fourth and dropped out. The first-time candidate, whose speeches were frequently ominous, kept it weird until the very end: Theres no path for me to be the next president absent things that we dont want to see happen in this country.
The only hope for Mr DeSantis and Ms Haley is that a candidate needs 1,215 delegates to become the nominee, and nearly 2,400 are still up for grabs. Both runners-up agree that a head-to-head slog with Mr Trump over the next several months is the only path to victory. The problem is that neither is willing to back down in order to let the other become the former presidents sole challenger.
I can safely say, tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race, a smiling Ms Haley declared after finishing third. Betsy Ankney, her campaign manager, argued in a memo published after the results came in that the race now moves to less Trump-friendly territory. And the field of candidates is effectively down to two, with only Trump and Nikki Haley having substantial support in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Ms Haley, endorsed by New Hampshires Republican governor, is betting that a surprise victory on January 23rd would provide momentum ahead of the South Carolina contest a month later. But if she pulls off an unlikely upset, it will be thanks to support from moderate Republicans, independents and strategically minded Democrats who loathe Mr Trump. That coalition might win a state of 1.4m but isnt fit for purpose in a national Republican primary.
A Haley win in New Hampshire is a long shot. A polling average from FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism website, shows Mr Trump with 44.4% in New Hampshire compared with Ms Haleys 31.4%. Chris Christie, a former New Jersey governor and Mr Trumps most direct critic, stood at third place before dropping out. He disparaged Ms Haley ahead of his exit and declined to endorse a candidate. Mr DeSantis fares even worse in New Hampshire polling than Mr Ramaswamy did in Iowa.
The DeSantis campaign exudes confidence nevertheless. While it may take a few more weeks to fully get there, this will be a two-person soon enough, says Andrew Romeo, communications director for Mr DeSantis. Despite spending $24m in false negative ads against Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley couldnt buy herself the kill shot she so desperately wanted [in Iowa], and now she will be out of this race after failing to win her home state on February 24. That state is South Carolina, where Mr Trump has nearly 55% of likely primary-goers, according to FiveThirtyEight. Ms Haley trails him by 30 points, while Mr DeSantis is at about 12%.
Ms Haley may think a third-place finish in Iowa was enough to make this a two-person race, and Mr DeSantis that a third-place finish in South Carolina will do the trick for him. Both camps seem to confuse barely surviving with building momentum. Nor is it clear whether they will have the financial wherewithal to sustain an expensive multi-state campaign.
The coming contests in New Hampshire and South Carolina could inject some life into the Haley campaign. Perhaps Mr DeSantis will raise the cash needed to hang on. But Mr Trumps lead in national pollingaround 55 points above Mr DeSantis and Ms Haley, according to The Economists trackermeans that there wouldnt be much of a race even if one of the remaining candidates dropped out. Mr Trumps ongoing legal travails have only helped cement his bond with Republican primary voters.
Mr Trumps campaign called for an end to primary debates and for a focus on beating Joe Biden months ago. The candidate probably wont gain an insurmountable lead until March 5th, Super Tuesday, when more than a third of delegates will be up for grabs. But on the night of the caucuses he clearly had his eyes on November. He called his Republican opponents very smart people, very capable people and declared: Were going to come together. Its going to happen soon.
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How did the Iowa result change the Republican primary? - The Economist
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Christie is out. His voters aren’t. Now they need a new candidate in N.H. – NPR
Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, seen through a storefront window, shakes hands with guests while visiting Kay's Bakery and Cafe, during a campaign stop on Friday in Hampton, N.H. Charles Krupa/AP hide caption
Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, seen through a storefront window, shakes hands with guests while visiting Kay's Bakery and Cafe, during a campaign stop on Friday in Hampton, N.H.
When former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination last week at a town hall event in Windham, N.H., Norm Olsen was there. And Olsen knew immediately who would get his vote.
"It was very clear: If it wasn't him, it was going to be Nikki," he said. "So I didn't get to ponder it very long."
That's exactly what former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is hoping for. She's counting on a big day in next week's New Hampshire primary. But if she's going to catch up to former President Donald Trump, she'll need the support of voters who previously backed Chris Christie.
Voters like Olsen, who hosted a meet-and-greet with about 30 people for Christie at his home in Portsmouth shortly before Christmas. The Republican appreciated that Christie was the only candidate in the GOP primary race willing to say what he felt needed to be said about Trump.
Christie leaving the race is widely seen as a boon for Haley, who benefits from New Hampshire allowing undeclared voters to vote in the Republican primary. Olsen says his Christie-backing friends have largely shifted to Haley.
"Well, out of ten people that I know, eight of them were about as quick as I was to go to Nikki," he said. "And two of them haven't made up their mind yet. That's just the folks I know."
Olsen quipped that he knows his isn't a scientific study, but a more scientific University of New Hampshire poll, taken before Christie dropped out, found that 65% of Christie voters had Haley as their second choice.
Christie pointedly didn't endorse anyone when he left the race. In fact, he was critical of Haley for saying that if Trump is the nominee she would support him, even if convicted of a crime. Rather than openly court Christie voters, on the campaign trail Haley refers to the New Hampshire primary as a "two-person race" with Trump.
Catherine Johnson calls herself a super volunteer for Chris Christie. The registered Democrat is now attending events for Nikki Haley since Christie dropped out. Tamara Keith/NPR hide caption
Catherine Johnson calls herself a super volunteer for Chris Christie. The registered Democrat is now attending events for Nikki Haley since Christie dropped out.
Hanover resident Catherine Johnson fashioned a role for herself on the Chris Christie presidential campaign that was essentially a Walmart greeter but for town halls and candidate meet and greets. She was a super volunteer for the former New Jersey governor. As he crisscrossed the state, she was there with a friendly welcome, and she has the mileage on her car to show for it.
"I'm thinking about 5000 since October," Johnson estimated.
On the day Christie announced his campaign was over, she had already driven about two and a half hours. She was supposed to be manning the mic for the question and answer portion of the event.
"And at the very last second, they had me sit down," she recalled.
There would be no more of Christie's trademark Q and A, and no more of Christie on the campaign trail standing up to Trump things that Christie did which made Johnson really believe in him. She is a registered Democrat and admits it's kind of weird to be so dedicated to a Republican candidate. But she cried right there at the town hall.
"I knew the campaign was going to come to an end on Jan. 23rd, but I still thought I had two weeks," she said.
Like Johnson, most of the supporters NPR talked to thought Christie would drop out after the New Hampshire primary.
Dawn Hartnett, an IT project manager from Hookset, is an independent who has never voted for a Republican at the national level, but that's about to change. She says she can't stand the chaos of Trump and after Christie dropped out, she attended a Haley event at a small store near her home.
"We really need to get Trump off the ballot," said Hartnett. "She is our last, best chance, but a very good person to vote for. I think she'd do a great job."
Harnett praised Haley's emphasis on term limits and shares her concerns about two elderly men facing off in November.
Corinne Pryor, with her husband, Jeff Pryor at Robie's Country Store in Hooksett, NH. They were there to see Nikki Haley speak alongside N.H. Gov. Chris Sununu who has endorsed Haley. Jeongyoon Han/NPR hide caption
Corinne Pryor, with her husband, Jeff Pryor at Robie's Country Store in Hooksett, NH. They were there to see Nikki Haley speak alongside N.H. Gov. Chris Sununu who has endorsed Haley.
But not everyone is ready to commit to Haley. Former Christie-backer Corinne Pryor has some doubts. Pryor is an undeclared voter and wants to see if Haley can stand up to Trump's Republican party like Christie did.
"Nikki Haley sometimes said it, but not in so many words," she said. "It did feel like it was a little softer landing. He was Chris Christie was much more verbal and forthright."
But what she really craves above Christie's no-nonsense sensibilities is someone who is a true moderate, and someone who brings the country together. She's wondering if Haley can provide that for her.
"Well, she's... she's more in the middle than Trump is," Pryor said. "If I have to compare, it depends who I'm comparing her to, I guess."
As for Christie super volunteer, Catherine Johnson, she's swapping out the Christie events that she made sure to never miss, for Haley events. But, at the end of the day, she won't budge on her vote.
"I'm going to vote for Governor Christie on a write-in ticket for the Democratic New Hampshire primary," she said. "And then I'm going to spend the rest of the day driving anybody who needs a ride to the poll."
The first person she'll drop off: her 91-year-old mother.
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Christie is out. His voters aren't. Now they need a new candidate in N.H. - NPR
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New Hampshire’s next: Where the Republican field stands after the Iowa caucuses – NPR
Former President Donald Trump speaks at his caucus night event Monday in Des Moines. Trump handily won the caucuses. The next contest of the primary season is in New Hampshire on Jan. 23. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images hide caption
Former President Donald Trump speaks at his caucus night event Monday in Des Moines. Trump handily won the caucuses. The next contest of the primary season is in New Hampshire on Jan. 23.
For more than a year, former President Donald Trump has been seen as the overwhelming front-runner for the Republican nomination.
It's not just because of polls. The party apparatus still seemed to be deferential to Trump. He has the most endorsements by far. And few Republicans are willing to criticize his conduct.
Trump's decisive win in Iowa on Monday further cemented his standing in the party.
There are many more ballots to be counted before a Republican presidential nominee is declared, but a week away from the nation's first primary in New Hampshire, Trump's rivals are facing uniquely long odds.
The candidates who were most critical of Trump former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor have dropped out. Both directly took on Trump for his conduct, and both never really stood a chance at the nomination.
"I would rather lose by telling the truth than lie in order to win," Christie said when he bowed out of the race a week ago. "And I feel no differently today because this is a fight for the soul of our party and the soul of our country."
After getting just 0.2% of the vote in Iowa Monday, Hutchinson also announced in a statement that he, too, was waving the white flag.
"My message of being a principled Republican with experience and telling the truth about the current front-runner did not sell in Iowa," Hutchinson said. "I stand by the campaign I ran."
There are some who believed in those principles in Iowa. In addition to the 191 people who voted for Hutchinson, 29 others braved sub-zero temperatures in Iowa to caucus for Christie, even after he'd dropped out.
In fairness, Iowa was never really a focus of Christie's, but the lack of support for the two most vocally anti-Trump candidates underscores a familiar story that we've known to be true for years.
Republicans largely haven't spoken out against Trump, and the ones who have are often punished.
For example, of the 10 Republicans in the House who voted for Trump's impeachment after the Jan. 6 insurrection, only two remain in Congress. The others were either ousted in GOP primaries or retired rather than face a challenge.
Indictments, 91 felony counts of federal and state charges, continuing to say increasingly anti-democratic things on the campaign trail none of it has mattered with Republican voters.
Actually, those things have all helped Trump with Republican voters.
His lead has only expanded with primary voters through this campaign. Back in May, 45% of Republicans said they preferred Trump over any other candidate, according to an average of the polls.
Now, that's up to 63%.
The Iowa entrance polls made clear that Republicans have latched on to Trump's lies about the election and his victimhood claims about the charges against him.
Just 3 in 10 said Biden was legitimately elected, and two-thirds said they think Trump would be fit to be president even if he's convicted of a crime.
Sure, national polls don't reflect what's happening in state races, but even in those early states with hundreds of millions of dollars spent and miles of retail campaigning Trump leads by a lot.
These primaries are not a national campaign yet. But they soon will be.
Super Tuesday is March 5, less than seven weeks from now. Sixteen contests take place that day in states and territories that give out 874 delegates in a single day.
To get the Republican nomination, a candidate needs a majority of delegates to the national convention. This year, that magic number is 1,215.
And unless something extraordinary happens, this all could be over a lot sooner than people probably think.
Trump and his team have stacked the state parties with loyalists, and over the last year, leveraged them to change the rules in their states to favor Trump.
Take a state like California, for example. It's a huge state with the most delegates in any single state. Trump's team successfully lobbied the state party to change their rules to give out all their delegates to whomever clears 50%.
In a one-on-one race, that's whoever wins. And there are about a dozen states until the middle of March that will allocate their delegates that way now.
After Super Tuesday, the next big day is March 19. Let's call it Winner-Take-All Tuesday. That's because five of the six states that vote that day give out all their delegates to whoever wins, no matter the total.
All of it is designed to get the primary process over with as quickly as possible. Seventy percent of the delegates will be allocated by the end of March, and if Trump wins at the clip he won by in Iowa, this could all be a wrap by then.
That's why New Hampshire is now so important in this race. It's likely the last real chance for former Trump U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley to show she has a path to the nomination.
She has gained ground on Trump in recent weeks there, and New Hampshire has the kind of profile that's tailor-made for a candidate like Haley.
She appeals to moderates, for example, which she won in Iowa. And there are historically more self-described moderates in New Hampshire, because independents are allowed to vote in the Republican primary unlike in Iowa, which only allows registered Republicans to cast a ballot.
Despite Haley's climb, Trump is still ahead in the polls by an average of double digits.
That, of course, can change. Half of New Hampshire voters said in 2016 that they made their decision the week of the primary. (That year, it was in favor of Trump, by the way.)
But if Haley can't win or come reasonably close to Trump in New Hampshire, it's going to be tough to see how her longshot campaign can be viable.
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New Hampshire's next: Where the Republican field stands after the Iowa caucuses - NPR
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