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Mind control the media is distorting consumer sentiment, an economist says.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) Market-moving consumer confidence data is too volatile because of media sensationalism, according to a research note published Tuesday.

UBS economist Paul Donovan measured two leading sentiment gauges the Conference Boards consumer-confidence report and the University of Michigans consumer sentiment report and pitted the volatility of that data against the volatility of the underlying economic data.

Then he looked at the volatility of a leading business-side survey, the Institute for Supply Managements manufacturing report, and compared it to the volatility of the underlying economic data.

What he found using this blase barometer is that the consumer surveys show much more volatility than the business-sector gauge.

Donovan suggests its the medias fault. A hypothesis for a deterioration in the quality of sentiment is that survey respondents will be biased to answer survey questions according to their perception of how they should answer, not reflecting a rational assessment of their situation, he says.

He likened the situation to whats happened with media reporting of merger-and-acquisition rumors. Theres been an increase in reported rumors since 2006, and a further expansion after 2008, despite fewer actually mergers happening. These reported rumors drove stock prices, despite the quality of these rumors being suspect.

It seems unlikely that media sources will become less dramatic in their reporting of events, and indeed the highly competitive media environment suggest that dramatizing news will remain a feature of the information highway. Unless survey respondents start to disregard media reporting when they are generating their survey responses, we have to conclude that the value of surveys today is less than it was in the past, he said.

The Conference Boards consumer confidence report for February is due at 10 a.m. Eastern.

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Capitol Report: Media sensationalism is distorting consumer confidence data, economist says

A student at a peace camp, held on the grounds of the Southeast Asia Rural Social Leadership Institute in Manresa, Cagayan de Oro City, raised a troubling, provocative question during a session I took part in last Saturday. Given all the speculation and inaccuracy and rank irresponsibility in media coverage of the Mamasapano incident (these were his premises, shared it seemed to me by many other students in the peace camp, a good number of whom were Muslim): Does the media even have the right to be believed?

We should see this pained question first as an indictment of the media in general, but then also as a challenge. I am still processing the question in my head, but here are a couple of preliminary answers. The amount of drivel that has been said to fill airtime on radio and TV, or opinion columns in print and online, supposedly in pursuit of the truth behind the Mamasapano incident, has truly been astonishing. The inanities uttered by senators and congressmen, sudden experts in the conflict in parts of Mindanao, have reached a new low. The result has been a general sense of uncertainty and outrage, always a dangerous mix. (It was toxic enough to push former Tarlac governor Tingting Cojuangco over the edge of a new level of ridiculousness; she now imagines she is the mother of the dozens slain in Mamasapanoby what alchemy we do not know.)

But I also encouraged the students at the peace camp to persevere. There are bad sources of information in the media ecosystem, yes, but there are also good ones. Find out who they are, and support them. Better yet, join your voices to theirs. Of the three media roles (standard, search, social), the students had control over the third; they should use it to put pressure on the first.

* * *

Upon the invitation of the esteemed Fr. Catalino Arevalo, SJ, I attended a Theological Hour at the Loyola School of Theology in Quezon City last Wednesday, featuring Fr. Gustavo Irrazabal, STD, the Argentine professor of moral theology, on Theology of the People and Theology of Liberation: Two Latin American Perspectives on Faith and Social Justice.

What is this theology of the people, which once again prevailed in the landmark Aparecida Document of 2007 (which Jorge Mario Cardinal Bergoglio edited) and was referenced once more in the apostolic exhortation Evangelii Gaudium of 2013?

As I understand it, it is a variation of the theology of liberation, which spurns the Marxist (and pseudo-universal) analysis on which that theology is based, and instead embraces the particular cultural context of a community of believers. This particularity of culture is I think what allows Irrazabal to assert that the theology of the people may help Catholic Social Teaching attain not an abstract universality but a concrete universality.

In Irrazabals schema, the historical subject of the theology of liberation is the poor, while that of the theology of the people is the people/nation. In TL (to use his abbreviations), liberation is understood as primarily socioeconomic. In TP, it is understood as cultural-religious.

TPs immediate connection to Pope Francis, as I understand it, is in the privileging of popular religiosity. It is seen, as Irrazabal noted, as the core of Latin American culture and, as such, as the wisdom of the people. There are challenges, to be sure. (Irrazabal: For example, in popular religiosity, where is the resurrection?) But the basic idea that the people know what it means to believe, that in fact religion is not opiate but elixir, is liberatingand is one reason why many Catholics from the Third World respond to Pope Francis so.

* * *

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Medias right to be believed

AN INDEPENDENT, unbiased and diverse media landscape is, to me, what keeps our democratic society in check.

Without it, the voting public would be uninformed, easily persuaded and controlled by whoever has the most power and money.

As a journalism student, media is my passion and journalism a profession built upon ethics and a responsibility to serve the public.

In the digital age, consumers have unprecedented control over which forms of journalism dominate.

The mainstream media, however, is often criticised for portraying the exact opposite of these ideals. In a recent poll by Reader's Digest ranking professions by trustworthiness, Journalists ranked 42 out of a possible 50, just scraping in above salespeople, politicians and CEO's.

I find it ironic that the people that often expose politicians and CEO's for being untrustworthy are not regarded much more highly themselves.

As in any profession, there exists a minority that perhaps do not fulfil their duty statement but if you look hard enough good, purposeful journalism is abundant.

Increasingly, Australian media is dominated by two major conglomerates: Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp and Fairfax Media.

Outside of these monopolies however you enter the realm of independent journalism; journalism that primarily aims to inform and educate, rather than simply sell.

In the digital age, consumers have unprecedented control over which forms of journalism dominate.

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Trustworthy, reliable journalism will come if you demand it

Independent filmmaker Dean Francis is looking to social media to get his new movie Drown into Australian cinemas.

Mr Francis has distribution deals in America, the UK and Europe but he is using a cinema-on-demand platform, Tugg, instead of the traditional film distribution model to get Drown onto local screens.

"The take-up internationally has been really enthusiastic and fantastic," the Australian director and producer told AAP.

"Here in this country I think there's a sense in which it's quite hard to market a film that is actually as edgy as our film.

"I don't know whether it's just that it's potentially perceived as a gay film, although that's certainly not its only focus, or whether it's that we're just saying something that's maybe a bit uncomfortable for the distributors to feel like they can push to audiences."

Traditionally distributors control what movies are shown on the big screen but with Tugg anyone can act as a distributor by organising a screening at a cinema - provided they get 60 people to pre-buy tickets.

Mr Francis said the film, which explores issues such as gay people in sport and one-punch violence, has gained enormous traction on social media and is doing well using the cinema-on-demand model.

He said the partnering of Tugg, which has been operating in the US for three years, with Australian film distributor Leap Frog Films was a "golden opportunity" for a film like Drown.

Unlike his first feature Road Train, Mr Francis opted to bypass traditional film funding bodies for Drown.

"On this particular project we opted to go down the path of doing this as a very low budget film that would rely on the support of the community both financially and in terms of people actually working on the film for the love of it basically."

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Aust filmmaker's social media distribution

Assistant Secretary for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance Frank Rose will travel to Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and India February 23-March 9, 2015, for a series of strategic discussions on international security.

From February 23-27, Assistant Secretary Rose will meet with senior Japanese officials on issues including space security, strategic stability, extended deterrence and multilateral arms control in Tokyo. On February 23 and 24, he will deliver public remarks on the U.S.-Japan Alliance at the American Center and Tokyo Foundation. On February 25, he will chair the U.S.-Japan Space Security Dialogue. On February 26, Assistant Secretary Rose will deliver remarks at the Japan Space Forum on space situational awareness.

On March 2, Assistant Secretary Rose will engage in bilateral discussions in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia with senior officials from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Defense, and the Malaysian National Space Agency on a variety of security topics of joint interest.

On March 3, Assistant Secretary Rose will travel to Jakarta, Indonesia for bilateral discussions on space security and multilateral arms control topics with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space.

On March 4, Assistant Secretary Rose will meet with senior officials in Singapore on a variety of security issues including space security and multilateral arms control.

From March 5-9, Assistant Secretary Rose will travel to India for bilateral talks with senior Indian officials and will chair first bilateral U.S.-India Space Security Dialogue.

Follow his travel on Twitter at @StateAVC.

For more information on the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, visit http://www.state.gov/t/avc.

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Press Releases: Assistant Secretary Frank A. Rose to Travel to Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and India