On Media – POLITICO
The primary debates of 2015 brought in a whopping cumulative total of more than 120 million viewers. | Getty
By Alex Weprin and Hadas Gold
12/30/15 12:45 PM EST
For cable news, 2015 was big. In fact, it was huge.
And it was all thanks to the 2016 presidential election.
The slew of presidential primary debates, both Republican and Democrat, pushed Fox News, CNN, CNBC and Fox Business Network to ratings heights they had never seen in their histories, which in CNNs case stretches back to 1980.
The primary debates of 2015 brought in a whopping cumulative total of more than 120 million viewers, with more debates still to come. About 24 million people watched the first GOP primary debate on Fox News in August, and 23 million watched CNNs GOP primary debate in September. Those are numbers matched only by NFL football games, which average in the mid-20 millions, depending on the network, and surpass just about everything else on TV.
According to a December Pew report, almost 70 percent of Americans have watched at least one of the six primary debates this year. By comparison, the biggest television event of the year, the Super Bowl, is watched by about 71 percent of Americans who turn on their televisions on Super Bowl Sunday.
Even big yearly sporting events haven't matched the debate's ratings. This years World Series on Fox averaged 14.7 million viewers, its best performance in years. The NBA Finals on ABC averaged 19.9 million viewers, its best numbers since 1998. The Republican debates topped both.
Even CNBC and Fox Business, niche cable-news channels that typically have diminutive audiences, averaged 14 million and 13.5 million viewers for their GOP debates, respectively.
Many television and political experts point to a perfect storm and a certain billionaire as the reason for the bump in ratings. An open election season, a crowded field and an unpredictable reality-television star brought in many cross-over viewers, argued television news expert Andrew Tyndall.
"The Trump Effect when it comes to ratings, I argue, has two components. It attracted Democratic-leaning voters to watch the Republican debate out of a genuine political curiosity that something new was happening inside the other party. It attracted apolitical viewers because, politics aside, it had elements of a reality TV elimination contest," Tyndall told POLITICO in October.
And it isnt just the Republicans. CNNs first Democratic debate averaged 15.3 million viewers. When the most recent Democratic debate averaged only 8.5 million ratings for CBS, it was viewed as a disappointment by the standards of cable news.
What a difference an election cycle can make. The previous record for a primary debate was in April 2008 on ABC, a one-on-one debate between then-Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, which brought in 10.6 million viewers.
The Democratic debate schedule six debates, half of them on weekends on broadcast networks irked many in the party and some of the candidates themselves. Had most or all of the Democratic debates been hosted on cable news channels, rather than skewing toward broadcast networks on the weekend, they argued, it was reasonable to assume that their ratings would be even stronger, exposing more viewers and voters to the Democratic message.
Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network and a former network news producer who has been pushing for debate reform, has been warning that it's possible three times as many people will view a Republican debate as a Democratic one.
"The gap is about 125 to 140 million, or about the number of people who will vote in the general election next year. And keep in mind this gap is magnified by the time people are spending watching these debates (far more than a 30 second spot), and the days of free media generated by the debates themselves," Rosenberg wrote.
The debates also caused a halo effect, with ratings for regular programming before and after (even days after) drawing well-above-average audiences. Of course, 2015 saw a slew of other notable news events, and the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, California, proved that when news breaks, even on a weekend, millions of people turn on cable news, with Fox News and CNN the biggest beneficiaries.
If 2015 was a good year for cable news, 2016 is shaping up to be a spectacular one, with more debates in January (and beyond, though as candidates drop out it is possible interest will wane), and, of course, the primary elections and the main event come November 2016.
After years of declining viewership, cable news, it turns out, is having a bit of a renaissance.
Below, some of the highlights from each channel.
Fox News Channel
The king of cable news continued its reign, dominating not only cable news but nearly all of cable TV. FNC finished second among all cable networks in prime time behind only ESPN, and third in total day after only Nickelodeon and Adult Swim. It was the first time that a news channel ever placed second overall in cable. All told, the channel spent 11 out of 52 weeks on the top of the cable heap, let alone cable news. FNC was up in both total viewers and the core adults 25-54 demo in prime time, and up in total viewers in total day (while declining slightly in the demo). This year also marked the awakening of a force at the channel, someone who had been there for years but is now poised to potentially summit the peak: Megyn Kelly. Kelly's show, "The Kelly File," spent a full one-quarter of the year as the most-watched program in the demo in all of cable news, topping even her lead-in, The OReilly Factor, for three out of 12 months. Her show was also up the most year over year in the demo, and is within striking distance of OReilly in that category.
The 2015 numbers:
Prime time: 1.79 million total viewers (+3 percent year over year), 339,000 adults 25-54 (+12 percent year over year) Total day: 1.08M total viewers (+3 percent year over year), 207,000 adults 25-54 (-3 percent year over year)
CNN
CNN was bolstered greatly by having three primary debates, two Republican and one Democratic, as well as the flurry of news events that can drive viewers that dont regularly watch cable news to turn on the channel. The year-end ratings reflect that surge. CNN was up double digits year over year in both total viewers and demo viewers, in prime time and total day. The channel had its biggest ratings lead over MSNBC in a decade, and came the closest it has to FNC in seven years, although it remains a distant second in essentially every hour of the day. CNN was the only cable news channel to not see any year-over-year declines in total viewers or demo viewers in prime time or total day. Among the channels highlights: New Day topped MSNBCs Morning Joe in the demo for the second straight year (though not in total viewers), with The Lead, Erin Burnett Outfront and AC360 all up double digits from last year, and well-established as the No. 2 shows in cable news in their respective time slots. CNNs original entertainment series routinely placed No. 1 in their time slots in the demo.
The 2015 numbers:
Prime time: 712,000 total viewers (+38 percent year over year), 235,000 adults 25-54 (+30 percent year over year) Total day: 490,000 total viewers (+23 percent year over year), 149,000 adults 25-54 (+18 percent year over year)
MSNBC
MSNBC did not host any primary debates, nor did it see meaningful ratings jumps from major news events. It was very much a rebuilding year for the channel, which now falls under NBC News chief Andy Lacks purview. In the beginning of 2015, MSNBC was almost exclusively a liberal opinion outlet. By the end of the year, almost the entire dayside lineup had been jettisoned in favor of straight news hours anchored by NBC News staff like Chuck Todd. And then there was Brian Williams fall from grace at NBC, which could still prove to be a boon for MSNBC. Indeed, according to the final year-end cable news ratings, MSNBCs prime-time lineup of liberal opinion hosts declined slightly in total viewers year over year, and double digits in the demo, while its dayside lineup improved slightly in total viewers (though it still saw double-digit demo declines). Slightly more promising, in the fourth quarter the channels dayside lineup was up double digits year over year. A sign of things to come? Well have to see what 2016 brings.
The 2015 numbers:
Prime time: 579,000 total viewers (-1 percent year over year), 137,000 adults 25-54 (-13 percent year over year) Total day: 352,000 total viewers (+2 percent year over year), 89,000 adults 25-54 (-18 percent year over year)
CNBC and Fox Business Network
The business channels saw a boom thanks to their respective debates, but it is still too soon to tell if FBN will be able to catch up to CNBC day to day. Both channels claim to target Wall Street executives, and they discount the data released by Nielsen. CNBC is planning to dump Nielsen altogether, though for now it remains rated. Either way, Fox Business finds itself in a stronger position in 2016, as it has secured another Republican primary debate in January. That ensures that 2016 will be another banner year ratings-wise, and could put it in contention with CNBC (which doesnt have any more debates on the calendar) by the time the year ends. 2015 marked a strong year for both channels, whose ratings, aside from the debates, were driven by their prime-time entertainment programming. That being said, FBN did see strong ratings improvements on its dayside programming as well, particularly after its debate.
The 2015 numbers:
CNBC prime time: 364,000 viewers. CNBC total day: 159,000 viewers FBN prime time: 93,000 viewers. FBN total day: 65,000 viewers
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On Media - POLITICO