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As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.

Now, using a massive sample of validated voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has published a detailed analysis of the 2020 presidential election. It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did notand why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.

How Joe Biden won

Five main factors account for Bidens success.

How Trump kept it close

Despite (or perhaps because of) non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.

Longer-term prospects

With electoral mobilization at a peak for supporters of both political parties, turnout surged to its highest level in a century. The Democratic vote total increased by 15.4 million over 2016; the Republican total, by 11.2 million. In future elections, much will depend on whether mobilization is symmetrical, as it was in 2020, or asymmetrical, as it is when one party is enthusiastic while the other is discouraged or complacent.

This said, Republicans are facing a structural dilemma. For the most part, their coalition depends on groupsnotably whites and voters without college degreeswhose share of the electorate is declining. Moreover, as elderly Americans, who now tend to be supportive of Republican candidates, leave the electorate, they will be replaced by younger cohorts whose views of the Republican Party are far less favorable. Among voters under age 30, Joe Biden enjoyed a margin of 24 points over Donald Trump, and political scientists have found the voting patterns formed in this cohort tend to persist.

There are potential countervailing forces, however. If the Democratic Party is regarded as going beyond what the center of the electorate expects and wants, Democrats gains among suburban voters and moderate Republicans could evaporate. And if Democrats continue to misread the sentiments of Hispanics, who now constitute the countrys largest non-white group, their shift toward Republicans could continue. There is evidence that among Hispanics as well as whites, a distinctive working-class consciousness is more powerful than ethnic identity.

As my colleague Elaine Kamarck has observed, Hispanics could turn out to be the Italians of the 21st centuryfamily-oriented, hardworking, culturally conservative. If they follow the normal intergenerational immigrant trajectory rather than the distinctive African American path, the multi-ethnic coalition on which Democrats are depending for their partys future could lose an essential component.

Despite these possibilities, Republicans have made scant progress at the presidential level over the past two decades, during which they gained a popular vote majority only once. In the four most recent elections, their share of the popular vote has varied in a narrow range from a high of 47.2% in 2012 to a low of 45.7% in 2008. Despite labelling Mitt Romney a loser, Donald Trump failed to match Romneys share of the popular vote in either 2016 or 2020. Trumps gains in some portions of the electorate have been counterbalanced by losses in others. If Republicans cannot move from their current politics of coalition replacement to a new politics of coalition expansion, their prospects of becoming the countrys governing majority are not brightunless Democrats badly overplay their hand.

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New 2020 voter data: How Biden won, how Trump kept the race close, and what it tells us about the future - Brookings Institution

In her 1996 book, It Takes a Village, Hillary Clinton writes about what she called an unusual aspect of being the First Lady of Arkansas. Living in the governors mansion, Clinton and her husband were served by unpaid prisoners. When we moved in, I was told that using prison labor at the governors mansion was a longstanding tradition, which kept down costs, she wrote, adding that the prisoners were Black men in their 30s serving long sentences.

What was unusual to Clinton, however, was not that the fact that she was being served by unpaid Black men who had no freedom; it was that having prisoners in her home made her uncomfortable at least initially. I had defended several clients in criminal cases, but visiting them in jail or sitting next to them in court was not the same as encountering a convicted murderer in the kitchen every morning, she wrote. I was apprehensive.

Clintons nonchalant recounting of the unpaid labor in the governors mansion with no apparent concern over what is part of Americas legacy of slavery is reflective of just how much slavery, and unpaid Black labor in particular, has shaped American culture. And thats not only because the United States was built on slavery, but also because slavery was actually never fully abolished. Though the 13th Amendment, which outlawed the widespread practice of slavery, passed over 150 years ago, the US Constitution, to this very day, allows for certain American citizens to be subject to involuntary servitude.

The normalization of seeing Black people in nonpaid labor, in servitude as needing to be punished, as being suspicious of having done something is part of a legacy that dates back to the 17th century in our country, Michele Goodwin, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, said in an interview. These are the messages that Americans had to tell themselves to justify a child being sold at a corner block.

The constitutionality of modern day slavery lies in an exception in the 13th Amendment, which reads, Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction. That means that while Americans have a constitutional right to not be enslaved, that right is unequivocally stripped away from them if they are ever imprisoned.

After the 13th Amendment was passed, Southern lawmakers went back and created laws that would be targeted at Black people, Goodwin said. These were part of the Black Codes, a series of laws that criminalized behaviors that white lawmakers associated with Black people, who were subsequently arrested for things as simple as loitering. The result was the continued enslavement of Black Americans at the hands of the state.

That practice continues in some forms today. Prisoners, who are disproportionately Black and brown, work at government facilities, like state houses or governors mansions, for little to no pay, despite this kind of work not being a part of their sentence. The reason its been so normalized is because of the Black and brown faces associated with it, Goodwin said. While at least four states allow for unpaid labor, other states pay prisoners wages as low as a dime an hour. California, for example, employs prisoners for janitorial work or to make things like license plates for anywhere between 8 and 95 cents an hour, and pays firefighting prisoners a measly dollar per hour. Massachusetts pays its prisoners as little as 14 cents an hour, and withholds half of their paychecks until after they are released.

Some argue that prison labor allows incarcerated people to gain valuable skills and job training while serving their sentence. But the reality is that getting a job out of prison is still incredibly difficult. Even up until a new bill passed just last year, prisoners who worked as firefighters in California, for example, were seldom employed by the state after finishing their sentence. (This is not to mention the fact that work without pay should be inexcusable, whatever the circumstance.)

That the United States has the worlds largest incarcerated population and allows for underpaid or unpaid prison labor even, technically, if its involuntary should be a major concern for lawmakers. As it stands, prison labor, a multibillion-dollar industry that gives corporations and state governments access to cheap labor, only serves as an incentive to fuel mass incarceration.

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Representative Nikema Williams of Georgia have introduced an abolition amendment, which would finally scrap the exception clause in the 13th Amendment. It should go without saying that Congress should pass this bill, but its easy to see conservative lawmakers standing in its way. That said, Republicans often point to the first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, as an example of how it was their party that led America away from slavery. If they actually believe they are still the party of Lincoln, then they should join Democrats and finally abolish all forms of slavery in the United States. That is, of course, unless their obsession with Confederate flags and monuments is about more than Southern heritage and pride.

Abdallah Fayyad can be reached at abdallah.fayyad@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @abdallah_fayyad.

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The United States has yet to fully abolish slavery - The Boston Globe

QAnon followers believe a second set of Nuremberg-like trials will be held to prosecute those who introduced coronavirus restrictions, on the grounds of "crimes against humanity."

Acolytes of the QAnon conspiracy theory latched onto posts about a supposed Nuremberg 2.0 trial that would prosecute officials who introduced coronavirus restrictions, claiming a class-action lawsuit could be brought against them.

Posts promoting a Zoom meeting to discuss the apparent secret trial were promoted on an influential QAnon Telegram channel with 85,000 followers that shared details about how it could be viewed on July 4.

The post said those who watched the Zoom meeting would find opening statements and evidence that would be presented at the International Criminal Court (ICC) against "Hitler's 4th Reich members for coronavirus measures."

In 1946, the Nuremberg trials in post-war Germany led to the execution of many people connected to, or directly part of, the Nazi administration of Adolf Hitler who led a genocidal campaign that killed an estimated six million Jews and millions of other interned Europeans.

The channel then encouraged followers to "share everywhere."

However, several commenters who underneath the post expressed confusion and disappointment that 100 people were allowed in on the Zoom meeting, which is the limit unless a larger expansion is added on.

It was unclear if any followers managed to access the Zoom meeting.

Another post, uploaded on July 3 alongside a photo of a billboard advert that encouraged drivers to search for "Nuremberg Code", said: "Justice is coming - Nuremberg 2.0 soon - treason - crimes against humanity - military law - death penalty - no mercy."

The post was viewed more than 11,200 times and commenters stated their children needed to be saved from the coronavirus vaccine and pushed the false belief the jabs were killing people en masse.

Both posts linked to the same Nuremberg 2.0 website that claimed the ongoing coronavirus pandemic is a hoax and included comments from lawyer Reiner Fuellmich.

In a video titled "Nuremberg Trials, 2.0" shows Fuellmich standing in front of books and calling the ongoing pandemic a "coronavirus scandal."

He later added: "Those responsible for it must be criminally prosecuted and sued for civil damages." Fuellmich further claimed the apparent scandal had "unfolded into probably the greatest crime against humanity ever committed."

The attorney, who said he has practiced law in California, has previous form with comments that the pandemic was somehow planned by a cabal of global elites. He added that PCR tests were not reliable.

In a viral June 10, Facebook post, he was interviewed by one-time advisor to former President Donald Trump.

During the interview, Fuellmich said: "Concrete plans for this pandemic were made by very rich and powerful people some 10 years ago, among them the Rockefeller Foundation."

But, the AFP Fact Check branded the claims as false.

It said earlier this year: "This is false. While the Rockefeller Foundation and other experts did study pandemic scenarios, they in no way fabricated a deadly outbreak, and health authorities say PCR tests are reliable."

Newsweek has contacted Fuellmich for comment.

QAnon first emerged as a conspiracy theory in 2017 on the messageboard website 4Chan. In several posts by a person who claimed to have "Q" level security clearance within the U.S. government, Hillary Clinton would be arrested..

The arrest never came and numerous predictions made by "Q" did not happen.

It did, however, lead to a now-global set of Q followers, many of whom are also skeptical of vaccine efficacy, who worked to decode posts that they believed showed evidence for an international cabal of cannibalistic pedophiles.

Followers also believe that Trump would somehow expose this global cabal whose members would be put on trial.

However, after his election defeat in 2020, Q messages (known as Q-drops) slowed down dramatically.

The lack of new posts has not stopped the fervour of most QAnon followers, who still believe that Trump won the last election, with many convinced he will be reinstated as president.

Continued here:
QAnon Followers Think Secret Trials Will Be Held for COVID Rule Enforcers'Nuremberg 2.0' - Newsweek

The pitch was the same. You need me. You cant trust your people. I can fix this.

Executives at General Electric Co. , International Business Machines Corp. , and other global giants had all heard it.

And it was coming from the same businessman: Declan Kelly. A jet-setting public relations professional who in a few years had compiled an international roster of blue-chip clients, Mr. Kelly built on his ties to powerful people like Bill and Hillary Clinton and friendships with business leaders. The leader of Teneo Holdings LLC had become a go-to adviser for CEOs by promising them personalized advice for any crisis.

The most important question for business today is, do people really trust you? Mr. Kelly wrote in an annual note to clients in 2018. At its core, Teneos job is to help CEOs follow their true North when the storm obscures the sky.

That is why Teneo is often hired directly by CEOs, sometimes circumventing boards or other executives, according to executives who were pitched or worked with Teneo as well as current and former Teneo employees.

Excerpt from:
The Rise and Fall of Teneos Declan Kelly - The Wall Street Journal

There are likely to be a lot of names on the primary ballot for Alaskas lone congressional seat next year. Congressman Don Youngs name will probably be one of them, as he announced earlier this year to run for reelection.

Many will claim they are Republican. Many, like Gregg Brelsford.

Brelsford says he is a new kind of Republican running for Congress against Congressman Young.

At 72, Brelsford says a lot of things about the Republican Party, but according to recent voter records, he is an undeclared voter and has been a Democrat in the past, when he lived in Utah, for instance. MRAK can find no trace of him being registered as a Republican until July 5, when he used the Republican pedigree in his filing with the Federal Elections Commission.

I refuse to be a Republican who stays silent as many in our party chip away at our state and national ideals for petty, self-interested, short-term, goals. I am a principled, new generation, conservative, he said on his Facebook announcement.

Brelsford, who is registered to vote in Anchorage but was recently an interim manager of the Bristol Bay Borough, isnt the only challenger.

Randy Purham registered with the FEC several weeks ago to run for Alaskas congressional seat, but he lists his mailing address and voting address as Killeen, Texas. That will take some explaining to voters.

Brelsford, if he continues his campaign, will have an uphill battle with traditional Republicans and conservatives in general. Hell have to talk about his long history of donations to Democratic candidates for Congress, his maximum donation to Hillary Clintons campaign for president in 2007, and the $5,000 he gave to a political action committee for Hillary Clinton in 2008. All of those donations, and more up until 2017, were from him while he was living and working as an attorney in Utah.

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Rise of the fakes: Gregg Brelsford, Republican for Congress - Must Read Alaska