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BRUSSELS A referendum in Turkey on granting President Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new powers is unlikely to ease strained relations with the EU and risks killing off Ankara's stalled bid for membership of the bloc, officials in Brussels say.

Even if voters do not give Erdogan the executive presidency he seeks on Sunday, Turkey's democracy and judiciary will suffer damage and he is likely to put even more pressure on critics, they say.

"There is no good outcome," said Marc Pierini, a former European Union ambassador to Turkey now at the Carnegie Europe think-tank.

"There is a very wide gap between European leaders and Erdogan and I don't see that easily repaired," he said, predicting a "polite silence" from the EU if he wins.

Turkey, a NATO member state that began talks to join the EU in 2005, has become a crucial partner for the bloc by taking in millions of refugees fleeing from the six-year-old war in Syria.

But a crackdown by Erdogan since a failed coup last July has been condemned in European capitals, and he has alienated the bloc further by accusing the German and Dutch governments of acting like Nazis after they banned referendum campaign rallies by Turkish officials.

One senior official told Reuters an Erdogan victory, which would pave the way for the president being eligible to serve up to two five-year terms, could bring stability allowing the EU to upgrade trade and business ties. "Otherwise it would be chaos," he said.

But several others disagreed, with a second senior official rejecting that notion as "false stability in the name of one-man rule".

RISKY OUTCOMES

With Erdogan supporters seeing a chance to cement his place as modern Turkey's most important leader while his opponents fear an even greater centralization of powers, polls suggest the vote - in which Turkish citizens abroad are also participating - will be close,

EU officials see all outcomes - whether a clear victory for Erdogan, a narrow loss or a contested result - as risky.

A win would embolden Erdogan to move ahead with proposed constitutional changes and possibly introduce the death penalty, they say, thereby ending Turkey's bid to join the EU.

Its status is already an issue following the post-coup crackdown.

Legal experts at the Council of Europe, a human rights body of which Ankara is a member, warned in March that creating a presidency with virtually unlimited powers was "a dangerous step backwards" for democracy.

Erdogan and his supporters dismiss such claims, saying there are sufficient checks and balances in the proposed system, such as the president having to call simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections if he dissolves parliament.

CYPRUS HOPE?

Other scenarios are also bleak, EU officials say.

A contested result would likely provoke a period of instability, possibly more violence.

A narrow loss would see Erdogan, whose position as Turkey's most popular politician is uncontested, remain in office. EU officials said he could bring the presidential and parliamentary elections, currently scheduled for 2019, forward both if he loses and if he wins.

"If he loses, we can expect a very harsh and brutal election campaign, we would probably see both sides resorting to violence," a third senior EU official said.

"He would crack down on the opposition even more (and) ... if the result is contested, it could destabilize the overall situation."

Following the failed coup, 36,000 people are in Turkey's prisons awaiting trial and more than 100,000 have been suspended or dismissed from work, according to the Council of Europe.

The ideal scenario from Brussels envisages a period of post-referendum calm that would allow the EU and Turkey to reset relations and modernize their customs union, possibly even relaxing visa rules for Turks traveling to the bloc.

A prerequisite for that is a breakthrough in Cyprus reunification talks, where Ankara is facing off against Nicosia and Athens, the third official said.

"There is no entirely good result of this for us in any case. But some scenarios would be worse than others," he said, anticipating Erdogan will move to review ties with the EU whatever happens.

(Additional reporting by Alastair Macdonald; editing by John Stonestreet)

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LUCCA, Italy The United States will hold responsible anyone who commits crimes against humanity, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Monday, days after the U.S. military unexpectedly attacked Syria.

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Glum EU braces for Turkey vote on Erdogan's powers - Reuters

The streets of Kadiky, one of Istanbuls most liberal districts, echo with the laughter of young couples, the clink of beer glasses, and a one-word warning: dictatorship.

I dont want to live in a dictatorship. I dont want Sharia law. I dont want to have to wear the head scarf. I dont want my country to become like Iran or Iraq, said Tuana Okay, an 18-year-old student with a purple streak dyed in her hair.

Like many of her fellow Turks, Ms Okay is frightened about the referendum approaching on April 16, when President Recep Tayyip Erdoan is asking his citizens to approve sweeping constitutional changes that would vastly increase his own power.

A disparate coalition of opponents - from Marxist students to renegade nationalists, Kurdish activists to Turkeys once-dominant Republican People's Party (CHP) - are lining up to campaign against the president and in favour of a No vote....

Read the rest here:
Erdogan's opposition face intimidation and harassment as they try to stop him in Turkish referendum - Telegraph.co.uk

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan threatened to make Europe pay for oppressing and humiliating Turks, in rhetoric aimed at boosting the Yes camp ahead of Sundays referendum on enhancing his powers.

In a speech in the Aegean city of Izmir, Erdoan described Europe as a sick man, using the jibe that nineteenth century European politicians used to describe the decaying Ottoman Empire.

He once again threatened after the 16 April referendum to sign into law the reinstatement of the death penalty if it was passed by parliament a move that would automatically end the European Union membership bid.

Europe will pay for what they have done. God willing, the question of the European Union will again be on the table after 16 April, said Erdoan.

Turkey will review all political and administrative ties with the European Union after an April referendum, including a deal to curb illegal migration, but will maintain economic relations with the bloc, President Recep Tayyip Erdoan said yesterday (23 March).

He said that Turks living in Europe were oppressed and humiliated: God willing, our people will bring them (Europe) to account, he said.

They said a century ago that we were the sick man. Now they are the sick man. Europe is collapsing, he added, claiming the European economy weakened every year.

The EU is facing the gravest crisis in its six-decade history after last years British vote to leave the bloc, while populist and Eurosceptic movements have gained ground across the continent.

Erdoan reaffirmed that if a bill on restoring the death penalty abolished in 2004 as part of the Turkish EU bid was brought to him he would sign it without hesitation.

The president has raised hackles in Europe over recent weeks by claiming some EU states were behaving like the Nazis by preventing his ministers from holding pre-election rallies.

While the No campaign has struggled to make its voice heard as the Yes campaign dominates the airwaves, analysts believe the outcome is still too close to call as the race enters the last week of campaigning.

Sunday marked the last day of expatriate voting in the referendum, which is expected to be crucial to the outcome with some three million expatriate voters registered, almost half of them in Germany.

The Yes campaign is also backed by the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which on Sunday held a giant rally led by its leader Devlet Bahceli in Istanbul at precisely the same shoreside venue used by Erdoan for a giant meeting the day earlier.

Read more:
Erdogan: Europe is collapsing, we will bring it to account - EurActiv

By Humeyra Atilgan Buyukovali and Ilker Girit

IZMIR, Turkey

Just a week before a landmark referendum on major constitutional changes, Turkey's president stumped for Yes votes in the Aegean province of Izmir Sunday afternoon.

"April 16 will be a historic milestone," Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a massive rally at the central Gundogdu Square in Turkeys third-largest province, following a similar mega-rally in Istanbul Saturday.

"Izmir, let all of Europe -- not only the Aegean region -- hear your answer," he said, asking the crowds:

"Will you say yes on April 16 for a great, strong, prosperous, and stabilized Turkey?"

The crowd enthusiastically shouted "Yes!"

Young people in parliament

The president also rejected claims by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which has argued against the changes.

He denied the party's claim that the changes would leave the country under one-man rule, adding that party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu should "look back at the CHP's own history."

On another change which would see the minimum age for parliamentary candidates lowered to 18, the president also rebuffed claims that those young deputies would be exempted from compulsory military service.

"Serving in the army is of course sacred [...] But serving as a deputy is also not something ordinary," he said, adding they would find a way to deal with the issue.

"Our young people will take their place in parliament."

Erdogan claimed that Izmir -- a traditional CHP stronghold -- "will ruin the plans of the CHP in next Sundays referendum.

He encouraged the people of Izmir to cast a "record number of Yes votes."

The republic is ours

Also addressing the rally, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim stressed unity, saying that the country cannot be divided over how it votes in the referendum.

"We victoriously concluded the War of Independence together, we founded the republic together, this victory is ours, the republic is ours," Yildirim said.

He added that since the Justice and Development (AK) Party came to power in 2002, winning 363 out of 550 seats in parliament and forming a government without needing a coalition partner, they have never interfered with anyone's language, culture, ideology, or faith.

Next Sunday, Turkish voters will be asked to vote Yes or No to an 18-article constitutional reform bill which would shift the country from a parliamentary system of governance to a presidential one.

The Yes campaign is backed by the ruling AK Party and opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while the CHP has argued against the changes.

Read the original:
With 1 week until referendum, Erdogan stumps in Izmir - Anadolu Agency

5 hours ago.

Turks head to the polls April 16 to decide in a referendum whether to change their political system into a presidential one or retain the parliamentary system, with the president as nominal head of state and the prime minister as chief executive.

If successful, the referendum will change the rules of the domestic political game, allowing Erdoan to exercise unbridled power possibly for more than a decade. Failure could introduce unprecedented viciousness in the conduct of the countrys politics with Erdoan lashing out at his opponents, both Turks and Kurds.

Externally, either way the referendum will affect Turkeys relations with the EU and with the United States. Europeans, highly critical toward Erdoans actions in the referendums run-up, will bear the brunt of any anger. Erdoan does not forget slights easily.

If successful, Erdoan is likely to become even more assertive in his demands on the US, especially in relation to the Syrian Kurdish issue and the question of a clerics extradition to stand trial in Turkey. This may create further complications for the US in its pursuit of war against the Islamic State.

While in theory the referendum is supposed to decide the countrys political restructuring, in fact it is a referendum on Erdoans desire to become the sole repository of power in Turkey. Since assuming the presidency in 2014, he has subverted the existing system, becoming all but in name the executive president with the prime minister nothing more than his mouthpiece. Contrary to the present constitution, which mandates that the president be non-political and unaffiliated with any party, Erdoan acts as the head of the AKP in a highly partisan manner.

The proposed amendment, if passed, will allow Erdoan to continue in the role of the executive president until 2029 assuming he wins the next two elections, not improbable given his popularity. Observers suggest this is a major threat to the fledgling democracy for two reasons. First, unlike the American system, there are few checks on the presidents power as envisaged in the constitutional amendment. Second, since his third election victory in 2011, and especially since the failed coup of last July, Erdoans autocratic personality traits have been very much on display.

Analysts often equate him with the republics founder Kemal Atatrk, who also displayed an authoritarian political style, with some dubbing Erdoans approach as Islamist Kemalism for combining authoritarianism with a moderate form of Islamism. Its a major irony of Turkish history that the person most responsible for dismantling Turkeys Kemalist authoritarian state structure has become the vehicle for its impending restoration in another guise.

Erdoans Justice and Development Party, AKP, garnered the required number of votes in the Turkish Parliament with the help of the ultra-nationalist MHP to bring the constitutional draft to a popular referendum. However, the amendment faces resistance from the main opposition party, CHP, and the predominantly Kurdish HDP. There are also signs of increasing dissatisfaction with Erdoans dictatorial behavior.

The combination of these factors has made Erdoan and his government nervous to the point of hysteria, and Europe has become a convenient whipping boy for several reasons. The EU and major European countries, such as Germany, have been harshly critical of the unabashed display of Erdoans autocratic tendencies. Also, Erdoans high-handed actions have indefinitely postponed prospects of Turkish EU membership, thus reducing Europes significance in Turkish foreign-policy priorities. For historical reasons, Erdoan finds Europe a convenient target against which he can direct Turkish nationalism to boost his popularity.

Turkeys relations with the United States, demonstrating signs of considerable strain during the last two years of the Obama presidency, have shown some improvement since Donald Trumps election to the White House. Unlike Obama, Trump is not much concerned with the violation of human rights in Turkey.

Secretary of State Rex Tillersons visit to Turkey in March was one signal of improving relations although differences between Ankara and Washington persist. Tillerson did not meet any opposition leader, an attempt to avoid embroilment in domestic issues ahead of the referendum. His statements in Ankara focused primarily on the war against the ISIS, and he contended that there was no space between the United States and Turkey in their determination to fight the common enemy.

Turkeys differences with Washington, unlike those with the EU, have more to do with concrete policy differences over US support for Kurdish groups fighting ISIS in Syria. Also, Turkey demands extradition of Fethullah Gulen, considered by the Turkish government to have masterminded the abortive July coup from the United States, for trial in Turkey. Trumps discredited first national security adviser Michael Flynn is alleged to have discussed extradition by extra-legal means.

The extradition issue is, however, more symbolic than real. Erdoan needs former ally Gulen as the emblematic vicious instigator of the coup plot that left 265 Turkish civilians dead to bolster his own legitimacy and justify the crackdown on public servants, academics and journalists supposedly linked with the Gulen movement in the wake of the coup. Gulen, protected by American law, suits Erdoans purpose better than an aged, ailing cleric standing trial for difficult-to-prove crimes in Turkey.

The Kurds in Syria are a more serious matter. The main Kurdish force in Syria the YPG, military wing of the leading Syrian Kurdish party, PYD is a major US ally in its war against the ISIS. However, Turkey considers the YPG an arm of the PKK, engaged in major insurgencies and terrorist acts in the country for the past 30 years or more. Turkey perceives the American-supported YPG presence on its borders a major security threat as it boosts Kurdish nationalist sentiments within Turkey. As the war against the ISIS proceeds, Turkish forces may clash with the YPG militia they have come close a few times recently to prevent the latter from extending control over territories held by ISIS near the Turkish border.

So far, the United States has balanced relations by supplying arms to the YPG and supporting ground forces with air support while simultaneously assuring Turkey that it wont sacrifice Turkish interests for the sake of its alliance with the YPG or allow the latter to control territory west of the Euphrates near Turkeys borders. This intricate balancing act may unravel if ISIS begins to crumble and there is a race for the control of territory primarily populated by Kurds.

Regardless, Turkey is in for turbulent times. If the referendum passes, this is expected to magnify Erodans authoritarian bent and signal to the already restive Kurds that current policies of repression will intensify. Many HDP Kurdish members of parliament are already in jail for opposing Erdoan. A re-intensified Kurdish insurgency and escalation of terrorist attacks could follow. If the referendum fails, Erdoan may attack his opponents, both Turks and Kurds, even more viciously, thus leading to increased authoritarianism and possibly domestic unrest in the Turkish heartland itself.

Either outcome could further deteriorate Turkeys relations with European countries. Win or lose, Erdoan is likely to lash out at his European critics. Prospects of Turkeys EU membership will recede even further.

Turkeys relations with the US continue to hinge, above all, on how Washington manages contrary demands of the PYD/YPG and Ankara in relation to the status of Syrian Kurds. Although in normal times Washington is likely to choose NATO member Turkey over the Syrian Kurds, these are not normal times. Exigencies of the war against ISIS may lead the United States, deliberately or inadvertently, to cross some of the red lines set by Turkey in relation to the Kurdish issue, thus causing extensive damage to relations with Ankara. An abrasive Erdoan reconfirmed in his power could only add to the risk of escalation.

In the final analysis, the Kurdish question trumps all other considerations both domestically and internationally as far as Turkey is concerned.

This article first appeared on Yale Global Online.

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Whether Erdogan wins or loses the constitutional referendum, Turkey is in for turbulent times - Scroll.in