Mediaboss Marketing

Two major earthquakes rocked Turkey on February 6, killing more than 50,000 people and injuring thousands more. Hundreds are still considered to be missing, while millions of earthquake victims found temporary shelter with relatives and friends in other cities.

The deadly earthquake and its aftermath will serve as the backdrop to Turkey's parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14, which have the potential to upend Turkey's political landscape. For the first time since taking office more than 20 years ago,President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not the favorite in thepresidential race.

During his two decades in office, first as prime minister then as president, Erdogan has shaped the country like no other politician before him. He has changed legislation to reshape the Turkish state in his image. Since introducing the presidential systemhe has ruled the country as a de facto autocrat, relegating parliament to insignificance.

Two months after the earthquake and one month before the vote, polls point to a close race between the government camp and the leading opposition alliance. Some institutes have predicted a defeat for Erdogan's electoral alliance. In the race for the presidency, Erdogan is trailinghis main challenger,Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who leads the largest opposition alliance.

Erdogan, however, remainsan excellent tactician: he hasn't lost an election since 2002 and survived mass protests, including the 2013 Gezi Park demonstrations and an attempted coup in 2016.

Even now, he knows how to look out for himself politically. The 69-year-old recently secured the support of small Islamist splinter parties for his electoral alliance, the People's Alliance and they could tip the scales in a close race.

The New Welfare Party (YRP) recently joined Erdogan's People's Alliance. That party's demand to abolish Law 6284 whichobliges the state to protect women from violence and, if necessary, to guarantee them anonymity has led to indignation in Turkey.At least 234 women in Turkey were victims of femicide in 2022, and the We Will Stop Femicideplatform lists an additional 245 suspected cases.

Laws protecting women have long been a thorn in the side of Islamist communities and parties in Turkey. They have blamed such laws forrising divorce rates, and see them as an expression of Western interference in Muslim-Turkish family structures. These Islamic groups have put significant pressure on Erdogan's AKP government to reverse such laws. Just two years ago, Turkey withdrew from the international Istanbul Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence Against Women.

The addition of the YRP brings Erdogan's electoral alliance to four parties, the other three being the Islamic-conservative AKP, the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Great Unity Party (BBP). In Germany, constitutional protection authorities have been monitoring the structures of these three parties for years though not the parties themselves.

The MHP and BBP are rooted in the nationalist "Ulkucu" movement, better known as the Gray Wolves. German authorities list the far-right organization as ultranationalist, antisemitic and racist. Convinced of the superiority of the Turkish nation, they see mainly Kurds, Jews, Armenians and Christians as their enemies. They aim for a homogeneous state of all Turkic peoples under Turkish leadership, from the Balkans to western China.

Erdogan's largest partner in the alliance, the MHP, is "the original organization of the Gray Wolves," the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) told DW. The Federation of Turkish Democratic Idealist Associations in Germanyrepresents the MHP's interests in Germany, according to the BfV. It says that, with 7,000 members, it is the largest umbrella organization within the Gray Wolves' group.

Erdogan's second major partner, the BBP, is also rooted in the Gray Wolves' ideology. The party sees Islam as an important component of Turkish identity. The BBP is believed to be behind numerous political murders in Turkey, and itsmembers are also alleged to have been involved in the 2007 assassination of Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Its organization in Germany, according to the BfV, is the Federation of World Order in Europe.

Erdogan's new partner, the YRP, is rooted in the ideology of Milli Gorus, whose structures are also under surveillance in Germany. It wants to replace the "Western order of injustice" with an Islamic "just order," according to the BfV. The YRP is currently polling at 0.8% to 2%of the vote.

The Islamist Hda-Par party which, according to the North Rhine-Westphalia State Office for the Protection of the Constitution,is close to Turkish Hezbollah also supports Erdogan. Back in the 1990s, Turkish Hezbollah tortured and murdered numerous human rights activists, businesspeople and politicians in Anatolia. According to German authorities, the group has 400 members in Germany and is also being monitored.

In recent years, Erdogan has built up a strongpower apparatus. He created his own elite by means of state contracts, nepotism and corruption, and endowed numerous Muslim orders with privileges. Should he lose the election, that elite would lose influence and wealth which is presumably why Menzil, Turkey's largest orthodox Sufi order, recently announced its support for Erdogan's alliance.

Erdogan's electoral alliance is a combination of political Islam and ultranationalism, according to the Austrian political scientist Thomas Schmidinger. "Menzil in particular has already replaced the Gulen movement as one of the AKP's most important religious networks since the coup attempt in 2016," Schmidingertold DW, adding that it makes sense for the order to try and defend its newfound privileges.

In 2016, the Turkish government declared the Gulen movement a terrorist organization suspected of being behind the coup attempt on July 15, 2016. From the time Erdogan came to power in 2002 until 2016, the movement was animportant AKP ally.

Should Erdogan win the vote on May 14, Schmidinger does not expect any immediate political changes. Erdogan will likelycontinue to pursue an aggressive foreign policy to compensate for domestic problems, he said.

However, Schmidinger said an election victory for the governing electoral alliance looks unlikely. Due to the failed economic policy and poor crisis management after the massive earthquakes in February, the AKP-led alliance is no longer backed by a majority of the electorate, he said.

"Even in Turkey, elections can only be rigged to a certain extent," he added, referring to allegations of fraud in previous years.

Schmidinger said he doubted Erdogan would voluntarily concede the field in the event of a defeat.The Turkish state is, after all, largely controlled by Erdogan's cronies, he argued. Erdogan's followers have stocked up on weapons since the attempted coup, Schmidinger added, which could make armed conflicts possible. As a result, he said, even in the event of an election defeat, a change of regime might not go smoothly.

This article was originally written in German.

See the original post:
Turkey vote: Who are Erdogan's allies? - DW (English)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called President Isaac Herzog on Saturday night to express his concerns amid escalating tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank over the past week, as Israel grapples with a string of terror attacks that killed three people over the weekend.

According to a readout from Herzogs office, Erdogan initiated the phone call and expressed his condolences to the Israeli people for the separate attacks Friday in the West Bank, where two sisters were killed and their mother was critically injured, and in Tel Aviv, where an Italian tourist died in a suspected car-ramming attack.

The call came as Muslims mark the Islamic holy month of Ramadan which this year once again coincides with the Jewish festival of Passover. Erdogan wished Herzog and the people of Israel a happy Passover, and the Israeli president responded with the greeting Ramadan Kareem.

In Israel, the month of Ramadan is known to be a period of high tensions between Israeli forces and Palestinians, especially in Jerusalem and the West Bank. Tens of thousands of worshipers visit the Al-Aqsa Mosque located in the Temple Mount in Jerusalem throughout the month, regularly leading to a spike in violence. The site is the holiest site for Jews, as the location of two biblical temples, while the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Mount is the third holiest shrine in Islam, turning the area into a major flashpoint in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

This week, tensions have soared following clashes at Al-Aqsa, followed by tit-for-tat rocket fire by terror group Hamas from the Gaza Strip and Israeli strikes, a major rocket barrage from Lebanon on Thursday also believed to be the work of Hamas in southern Lebanon as well as rocket fire Saturday night from Syria, and a suspected Iranian drone launched from Syria earlier in the week.

On Tuesday, police said they had entered Al-Aqsa after masked youths barricaded themselves inside with fireworks, clubs and rocks and refused to come out peacefully. Officers apparently believed the group intended to assault Jews visiting the mount on Passover Eve.

File: Israeli security forces guard near Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount in Jerusalems Old City, during the holy month of Ramadan April 5, 2023. (Jamal Awad/Flash90)

Video of police apparently beating Palestinians in the mosque went viral and sparked outrage across the Muslim world. Police said in response that they had come under direct fire.

In a call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Friday, Erdogan said that the Islamic world should be united against Israels attacks in Palestine.

The call to Israels arch-foe Iran, which backs Hamas and Lebanons Hezbollah terror group, likely presents a challenge to Jerusalems newly restored ties with Ankara.

Emphasizing that common sense should prevail to prevent a new spiral of violence, Erdogan said that it would be beneficial to take initiatives to guide all parties to common sense, the Turkish readout said of the call with Raisi, without elaborating.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi shake hands at the conclusion of their joint press briefing at the Saadabad Palace, in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, July 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

In the call with Herzog on Saturday, the Israeli president affirmed the countrys commitment to preserving the status quo on the Temple Mount, and at the holy sites in general, according to the Israeli readout.

Herzog told the Turkish president that Iran, by means of its proxies, including Hamas, is leading a campaign on several fronts with the aim of undermining regional stability and is using terrorism based on religious incitement, focusing on the situation in Jerusalem.

The president referred to biased and false reports in the Arabic-language media, and gave as an example the dissemination of fake and outdated videos to encourage incitement, leading to terrorism, according to the readout.

In the Turkish readout, cited by the Haaretz news site, Erdogan brought up the attack by the Israeli forces on the Al-Aqsa Mosque on Tuesday, and Israels harsh attitude towards the worshipers in the holy places.

Erdogan told Herzog Muslims would not be able to remain silent in the face of the provocations and threats to the status and spirituality of Al-Aqsa, adding that events like this, which occur every Ramadan, should not be allowed to dictate the fate of the entire region.

He said Turkey was ready to assist in steps for sustainable justice and peace.

Under an arrangement that has prevailed for decades under Jordans custodianship, Jews and other non-Muslims are permitted to visit the Temple Mount under numerous restrictions and only during limited hours but may not pray there. This arrangement is commonly referred to as the status quo. In recent years, Jewish religious figures, including members of the new governing coalition, have increasingly visited the site and demanded equal prayer rights for Jews there, infuriating the Palestinians and Muslims around the world.

Read the original here:
Turkeys Erdogan phones Herzog to discuss Temple Mount tensions, terror attacks - The Times of Israel

As Turkey nears potentially pivotal May 14 elections, all eyes are on two men incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his chief challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But their battle for the countrys highest office may be decided, in part, by a third candidate for the post.

After 21 years running the country, Erdogan faces the biggest test yet of his grip on power.

He currently trails in opinion polls behind Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of the Nation Alliance opposition bloc, but experts say the Erdogan camp is counting on another challenger, Muharrem Ince, to split the opposition vote and force a run-off.

Please login to your account below if you are already a Premium Subscriber.

Our Premium Service gives you full access to all content published on BalkanInsight.com, including analyses, investigations, comments, interviews and more. Choose your subscription today and get unparalleled in-depth coverage of the Southern and Eastern Europe.

Buy Premium Subscription

If you have trouble logging in or any other questions regarding you account, please contact us

Go here to see the original:
Turkey's Weakened Erdogan Seeks to Engineer Presidential Run-Off - Balkan Insight

Trkiye intensively continues with the debris removal efforts in the quake-hit southern region, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday.

"We continue our debris removal efforts intensively. While the construction of our permanent residences continues unabated, we have promised to complete them within one year," Erdogan said during his address to earthquake victims and search and rescue teams in the capital Ankara.

Trkiye plans to construct enough buildings in a year to meet the needs of the quake victims. Erdogan previously pledged that 319,000 houses would be built in the first year and 650,000 in total.

On Feb. 6, magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 quakes struck 11 Turkish provinces Adana, Adiyaman, Diyarbakir, Elazig, Hatay, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye, and Sanliurfa.

Around 14 million people in Trkiye have been affected by the quakes, as well as many others in northern Syria.

Erdogan also said the debris removal will be completed in all provinces, except Hatay, by the start of the Eid al-Fitr holiday on April 21, marking the end of the holy Ramadan month.

"We will deliver some of the village houses until Eid al-Fitr," he added.

The rest is here:
Trkiye continues with debris removal efforts in quake-hit region ... - Yeni afak English

After the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in Turkey in 2002, Ankaras approach to Israel began to change for the worse. There were major fears at the time that the defense ties that characterized bilateral relations would vanish and create an irreparable rupture.

Within six years, ties indeed went from friendly to hostile.

And yet, the recent Israeli humanitarian delegation sent to assist Turkey in Februarys earthquake disaster is the latest reminder of the fact that these days, Jerusalems relations with Ankara are marked by a high degree of stability. Thats not something that should be taken for granted; it took years for the two countries to reach this stage after dealing with several major crises.

The 2010 Mavi Marmara crisis (when Israeli Navy commandos and Turkish Islamist activists trying to reach Gaza were involved in a deadly clash) marked a low point. Yet since then, the two regional powers have found a way to restore relations and maintain them to a degree.

This was achieved primarily through civilian cooperation, as returning to the military cooperation that existed before Erdogans rise to power would be very hard. Israel would have to find alternative security partners in the Mediterranean which it did in the form of Greece.

Once in power, Erdogan wanted to be the leader of the Islamic world and navigate according to a neo-Ottoman playbook. Unlike Ataturk, who turned Turkey from an empire to a state, Erdogan wants to return his country to empire mode.

On the one hand, Erdogan tried to employ a zero-conflict policy with Turkeys neighbors, while seeking to increase its influence in the region through soft power, based on leveraging economic and cultural ties, rather than military means.

However, Turkeys military involvement in conflicts in Syria and Libya, and severe tensions that developed with Greece and Israel put a dent in the zero-conflict approach.

In addition, Turkeys political influence on Arab Muslim states remained extremely limited. Theoretical predictions look nice on paper, but Erdogan quickly found out that reality doesnt always align. No one in the Arab Sunni world was willing to accept him as a regional leader Egypt and Saudi Arabia hold that position in the Sunni bloc.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia was unwilling to give up its role as the leader of the Islamic world. As a result, Turkey took up the banner of assisting the Palestinians, as part of its regional leadership bid. Yet Erdogan quickly understood that if he wants to be influential in the Arab world, he must have good ties with Israel, or he risks losing relevance.

All the Arab powers have ties with Israel, some formally like Jordan and Egypt, and, since the 2020 Abraham Accords also the UAE and Bahrain, while others, such as Saudi Arabia, maintain informal ties. As the Arab states moved forward, Erdogan was left behind.

Erdogan understood that if he remained excluded, the Abraham Accords would further decrease Turkeys influence on the region and the Arab world and this realization also helped convince him of the need to change his attitude to Israel. Meanwhile, Erdogan was a big disappointment to the United States, as it moved closer to Russia and created a crisis in NATO.

Israel, in Erdogans view, is therefore an important means for him to repair some of that damage by enabling him to forge new connections with the US and open doors in Europe via improved ties with Jerusalem. Hence, Turkey has focused on promoting civilian ties with the Jewish state.

In addition, economic trade has remained consistently high. Since Erdogan took office as prime minister in 2002, trade between Israel and Turkey has increased fivefold. Furthermore, Erdogan believes that strengthening ties with Israel will benefit his countrys economy and increase its global influence.

As a result, he has made efforts to improve diplomatic relations with Jerusalem but without giving up his ongoing effort to stress the Palestinian issue.

This is why some Hamas members are still allowed to be active on Turkish soil, though these days, this activity mostly involves Hamas political wing. Hamas Deputy Political Bureau Chief Salah Al-Arouri who in reality oversees West Bank terrorism efforts is today based in Lebanon after relocating from Turkey. The AKP Party views Hamas political wing as a sister movement.

Erdogans growing problems mean that he is keener than ever to improve ties with Europe, the US, Sunni states and Israel.

Kurdish autonomous zones in northern Syria have an immediate impact on southern Turkey that Ankara finds disturbing. Millions of Syrian refugees remain in Turkey, creating a serious economic problem. Iran worries Erdogan due to its ongoing attempts to change the balance of power in Syria to the determinant of Turkish-backed Sunni forces in the north of the country.

Iranians are present on the Syrian Mediterranean coastline, and this Iranian entrenchment is not viewed positively by Erdogan. Sunni Turkey sees Shiite Islamist regional influence as a destructive force. Despite four hundred years of quiet on the Turkish Iranian border, these are far from being brotherly states.

Erdogan also has huge economic problems and needs to attract new investments by improving ties with Europe and the US. He is also interested in becoming a distributor of Israeli gas to Europe.

These factors have led to a substantial change in Erdogans tone. When he criticizes Israel, he uses a vastly different tone from the one he used in the early years of his government rule.

That Israeli and Turkish security organizations were reportedly able to cooperate closely to thwart Iranian terror cells on Turkish soil sent to target Israelis in June 2022 is a further reflection of this change.

Erdogan has not given up his vision of establishing himself as an important Muslim leader who promotes the Palestinian cause but he has learned that he cannot achieve this by continually bashing Israel. Turkey also has direct potential gains it can make from its improved ties with Israel.

Israeli companies are already involved in helping Istanbul better manage its water system, with Israeli-made sensors helping to prevent water leakages from its pipes. There is interest on both sides in further cooperation. This will continue to be limited to the civilian sector because Erdogan has not shed all his neo-Ottoman influences.

Greece, for its part, has no reason to feel threatened by the Israeli-Turkish thaw, precisely because it is limited to civilian issues. The good judgment of both Israeli and Turkish decision-makers has enabled ties to become stable once more, as they should be.

The writer is a publishing expert with The MirYam Institute. He is a former senior deputy director-general of the Foreign Ministry. He served as Israels ambassador to Chile, Colombia and Turkey.

The rest is here:
How Turkey and Israel salvaged their relationship - opinion - The Jerusalem Post