Mediaboss Marketing

Voter turnout in primaries and special elections has dramatically increased this year compared to past midterm elections. Turnout for Democrats has climbed 78 percent, while Republicans have seen a 23 percent uptick. Scott Olson/Getty Images hide caption

Voter turnout in primaries and special elections has dramatically increased this year compared to past midterm elections. Turnout for Democrats has climbed 78 percent, while Republicans have seen a 23 percent uptick.

As both parties begin their final post-Labor Day sprint to Election Day, there are concrete signs that Democratic voters are fired up heading into the midterm elections.

Nowhere is that more evident than in the majority of states that have already held primaries. There's been massive increases in Democratic turnout while often a minimal uptick or even noticeable dip in turnout among Republican voters.

"What I'm seeing, with the exception of a handful of states, in state after state are huge increases in Democratic turnout relative to the increase in Republican turnout, when you look at 2014 versus 2018 turnout," said Republican pollster John Couvillon. "From looking at primary turnout as evidence of partisan enthusiasm, I'm seeing it on the Democratic side."

Couvillon has been studying primary turnout for several election cycles. His research this year found that there are many indicators that predict this could be an election for Democrats on par with 2006 the last time they won the House.

According to Couvillon's data, Democrats saw a 78 percent increase in turnout compared to the 2014 midterm election. Republicans, meanwhile, saw an uptick of 23 percent. That's based on available data from 35 states that Couvillon studied. And among those states, 29 had better Democratic gains in turnout than four years ago, with only six states having higher Republican turnout between the parties since the last midterm elections.

Democratic turnout accounted for 53 percent of primary ballots cast this year in those 35 states. In 2006 the last time Democrats took control of the House they made up 54 percent of the primary ballots.

Compare that with 2010 and 2014, both strong years for Republicans, when 56 percent of primary ballots were cast for GOP candidates heading into those elections.

Add historical precedent on top of that since World War II, a president's party has lost an average of 29 seats in his first midterm and President Trump's low approval ratings, and there are plenty of signs pointing to a good year for Democrats.

'The scales are tilted against you if you're the party in power'

In addition, Democrats go into the fall with a fundraising advantage. NBC News found that Democratic House candidates have raised $620 million compared to just $470 million for their Republican counterparts. On the Senate, there's also a noticeable, albeit slimmer, gap $368 million for Democrats to $258 million for GOP candidates.

"The scales are tilted against you if you're the party in power," Couvillon said. "Republicans are already having to deal with that, plus when you add to it to the considerable Democratic enthusiasm and that they're nominating some middle of the road-ish candidates, and it certainly makes for a tougher election cycle than Republicans have seen since 2008 or 2006."

Democrats need to flip 23 House seats in order to win control, and the surge in enthusiasm indicates they could be poised for big gains in crucial states.

Minnesota saw one of the biggest surges in Democratic ballots cast in the primary this year a 206 percent increase from 2014. The state has four competitive House races this year, including two Twin Cities-area seats that Democrats hope to flip and two open Democratic-held seats on turf in districts President Trump carried by double digits two years ago. While the uptick in turnout is good news for Democrats, Republicans can hope that the 74 percent increase on their side will keep things competitive.

In two important Midwestern states with multiple House seats up for grabs, Democratic turnout spiked while Republican turnout actually dropped from 2014 levels. In Illinois where there are four seats that the Cook Political Report rates as competitive there was a 170 percent increase in Democratic ballots, while Republicans saw a 12 percent dip. And in Iowa, where as many as three of its four congressional races are competitive, Democrats had a 154 percent increase in turnout, while Republicans saw a 36 percent decrease.

Other states with multiple important House races also saw major Democratic turnout increases Texas (up 88 percent for Democrats, compared to 16 percent bump for the GOP), California (82 percent increase for Democrats, with a 46 percent uptick for Republicans), New Jersey (89 percent increase for Democrats, with a 43 percent increase among GOP ballots), Kansas (133 percent increase for Democrats, while Republicans saw a 20 percent uptick), Michigan (120 percent surge for Democrats, compared to a 60 percent increase among GOP ballots) and Washington (76 percent increase among Democratic ballots, with only a 12 percent uptick among Republicans).

For Republicans in those states' largely suburban districts that are considered the most vulnerable, these numbers are not a good harbinger of things to come in November.

"If you're running behind 2016 levels, that's instant death if you're a Pete Sessions or Erik Paulsen," Couvillon said, citing endangered GOP incumbents in Texas and Minnesota, who represent two of the 25 districts currently held by Republicans that Democrat Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.

It's those districts that Democrats feel the best about capturing, based on both the surge in turnout they've seen among their base and overperformance in a spate of special elections since the 2016 election.

As we found in an NPR analysis last month, even though Republicans held onto eight of the nine special elections, Democrats saw a 10 point average shift in those races toward their candidates. Were that same margin to be applied to all 435 congressional districts (using the 2016 presidential margins as a partisan baseline) Democrats would net 63 seats in November a massive wave which would easily give them control of the House.

By and large, those special election districts were all far more Republican than ones the GOP will be struggling to defend this fall. And unlike during a special election, the party won't be able to spend millions defending individual seats if as many as 100 districts are considered competitive. The true battle for the House lies in the affluent, well-educated, often very diverse suburbs of major cities like Houston, Dallas, Kansas City, Denver, Miami, Minneapolis and St. Paul, Northern Virginia, Orange County California and more.

Democrats say the polling they're getting in many of those districts shows competitive in several open seat contests and ahead of, or nearly even with, entrenched incumbents once thought untouchable. They believe independents and even some once-reliable Republican voters in these affluent suburban districts who were no fans of Trump in 2016 have soured on him even more since he was elected. Now, they're looking for a way to put checks on the White House.

"Democratic voters are very enthusiastic about having the opportunity to weigh in on what's happening in our country, and it says that independent and swing voters are open to voting for a Democrat in some places where they haven't been before," said Ali Lapp, president of House Majority PAC, the House Democrats' major super PAC.

Senate firewall

But while the primary turnout may paint a bleak picture for House Republicans, it underscores that it's the Senate that could be the GOP's firewall this year. Already blessed with an incredibly favorable map even if Republicans run into headwinds Democrats are defending 10 incumbents in states Trump carried some of the GOP's target seats did see better Republican turnout.

In West Virginia, where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin faces a tough race against GOP Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, Republicans saw a 61 percent increase in primary turnout from four years ago, compared to just a 20 percent uptick for Democrats a strategic realignment in a state that's historically had more registered Democrats but has long trended towards Republicans on the federal level.

The same is true in North Dakota, where Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is being challenged by GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer. The state saw a 40 percent increase in GOP primary ballots over 2014, while Democrats saw a 23 percent increase.

Turnout results also show that Florida is, once again, poised to be a battleground. Unofficial results from last Tuesday's primary showed Democrats with a slightly higher turnout than Republicans about an 80 percent jump from four years ago but Republican turnout increased by 70 percent. The nearly-equal levels of higher turnout show both parties are engaged and why the Senate, gubernatorial and several House contests there could be quit close.

There are more encouraging signs for Democrats in two states where they hope to win seats, Nevada and Arizona. Democrats would need to flip at least two Republican-held seats and not lose any of their other races in order to win the Senate this fall.

In Nevada, where GOP Sen. Dean Heller is one of the most endangered incumbents, Democratic turnout increased by 88 percent compared to just 21 percent for Republicans. While Arizona's primary results from last Tuesday aren't yet official or complete, Democrats saw growth there too as they try to gain the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake.

Democrats will still have to work to convince these voters to come out in November as they learned that hard lesson in 2016 of the danger of complacency and in some states with open primaries, voters may often have pulled party ballots with the more interesting or competitive race. But the shift across the board in more enthusiastic primary turnout for Democrats is yet another alarm bell for Republicans ahead of Election Day on Nov. 6.

See more here:
Democrats' 2018 Primary Turnout Mirrors Previous Wave ...

WASHINGTON House Democrats, increasingly optimistic they will win back control in November, are mining a mountain of stymied oversight requests in preparation for an onslaught of hearings, subpoenas and investigations into nearly every corner of the Trump administration.

While they continue to distance themselves from the most extreme recourse impeaching President Trump senior Democrats who stand to control key House panels could soon oversee inquiries into some of the most precarious threats to Mr. Trumps presidency. Those include whether his campaign coordinated with Russia to influence the 2016 election, if the president obstructed a federal investigation into the matter and what role Mr. Trump played in paying to silence two women in the closing weeks of the campaign who say they had affairs with him.

Their scrutiny could also extend beyond Mr. Trumps legal troubles to include his administrations remaking of federal regulations and other policies that the party has disagreed with.

I am not looking for headlines, said Representative Elijah Cummings of Maryland, the top Democrat on the powerful House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. I am going to be defending the truth. We want to look at what is happening under this administration because all of us can agree this is not normal.

Republicans, who have used their majority to systematically block Democratic demands of the administration, privately fear the onslaught could knock Mr. Trumps government into a defensive posture or worse. In hopes of scaring voters to the polls, they have begun sounding sirens that Democrats will move quickly to impeach Mr. Trump.

They are going to try to impeach, said Representative Jim Jordan, an Ohio Republican who has been one of Mr. Trumps staunchest allies on Capitol Hill. We know that. This is why we have got to turn out our voters and win, Mr. Jordan said. The congressman, a wrestling coach turned politician, is facing his own political scandal stemming from accusations that he was aware of sexual misconduct at Ohio State University but did nothing to stop it.

On Monday, Mr. Trump blasted Jeff Sessions, his attorney general, for bringing charges against two Republican House members ahead of the midterm elections, saying it put their re-election in jeopardy.

Two easy wins now in doubt because there is not enough time. Good job Jeff, Mr. Trump said on Twitter.

Democrats have been hesitant to loudly advertise the specifics of the potential investigative blitz, convinced that swing voters are more likely to back them based on kitchen-table economic issues like wages, health care and retirement benefits. Loyal Democratic voters do not need to be reminded that a Democratic House will check the power of the president, they argue.

If this is a referendum on Trump, the way I would want to frame it is not remove or retain but contain or enable, said Representative Brad Sherman, Democrat of California, who has already introduced an article of impeachment against the president. There are more votes for contain than there are for remove.

But with Mr. Trumps longtime personal lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, implicating the president directly in the payoffs to Stephanie Clifford and Karen McDougal, the conviction of Mr. Trumps former campaign chairman in federal court and a rash of indictments and other alleged wrongdoings swirling around House Republicans themselves, the Democrats are increasingly selling themselves as a much-needed antidote to a culture of corruption in the capital.

Democrats believe the Republicans abused the power of the majority to hobble the Obama administration, deeply damage Hillary Clinton and protect Mr. Trump. That frustration, coupled with what most lawmakers expect to be a wave of Democratic anti-Trump outrage fueling midterm victories, could overwhelm the instincts of more moderate members of the party to chart a different, more bipartisan course than Republicans have.

Democrats on the Oversight Committee, typically the Houses most muscular investigative body, have more than 50 subpoena requests that have been denied by committee Republicans since Mr. Trump took office, from the administration of security clearances at the White House to chartered jet travel by cabinet officials to Justice Department documents related to its decision not to defend the Affordable Care Act in court.

Its not like we have to go dig them up. They are right there sitting on the desk, Mr. Cummings said.

In the Intelligence Committee, home to the Houses only investigation of Russian election interference, Democrats have shown interest in reopening what they viewed as an anemic inquiry that was prematurely closed by Republicans. They have outlined an ambitious list of witnesses worthy of potential subpoena, and Representative Adam B. Schiff of California, the committees top Democrat, says that unsubstantiated suggestions that Russia could have laundered money through the Trump administration are of great concern.

Party leaders could also choose to impanel a special committee to focus on the Russia matter, freeing the Intelligence Committee to more traditional oversight of the C.I.A. and the F.B.I.

But many of the most sensitive investigations directly touching Mr. Trump are likely to fall to the Judiciary Committee, one of Congresss most partisan bodies, where impeachment proceedings must begin. Led by Representative Jerrold Nadler of New York, committee Democrats have repeatedly pressed for an investigation of whether Mr. Trumps business profits violate anticorruption clauses of the Constitution. They titled a 56-page report on requests mothballed by Republicans A Record of Abuse, Corruption, and Inaction.

Perhaps more consequentially, Mr. Nadler and his colleagues have pushed for the committees own Russia investigation, as well as inquiries into the firing of James B. Comey as F.B.I. director last year and Mr. Trumps attacks on the F.B.I. and the Justice Department. While not formal impeachment inquiries, studying those topics would allow the committee to begin to quietly set a foundation for a potential report from the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, or the presentation of new facts by prosecutors in the Cohen case.

We have to see more, Mr. Nadler said of impeachment. We need more evidence. We need to see what Mueller comes up with. We may get there.

In the wake of Mr. Cohens guilty plea last month, Mr. Nadler requested an emergency meeting of the committee to demand insight from the Justice Department into its continuing investigation of potential campaign finance violations, as well as a public hearing on presidential pardons. The committees Republican chairman, Representative Robert Goodlatte of Virginia, did not reply.

Less marquee committees including the Financial Services, Veterans Affairs, Ways and Means and Energy and Commerce Committees would probably carry out their own policy-oriented probes, digging out private communications behind divisive administration decisions and personnel, or even take a run at obtaining Mr. Trumps long-sought tax returns.

Taken together, it would represent a sharp turn from the precipitous drop-off in congressional oversight since President Barack Obama left office. Republicans defend their record, arguing that they have called administration witnesses when appropriate and carried out a yearlong, politically unpopular investigation of Mr. Trumps Russia ties.

But in the last year, that effort has been almost entirely overtaken by an investigation of those investigating Mr. Trump at the F.B.I. and Department of Justice. Representative Trey Gowdy of South Carolina, the chairman of the Oversight Committee, has yet to issue a single subpoena.

As a Democratic victory looks more likely, the possible reversal has increasingly worried Republicans. Axios reported on Sunday that Republicans have privately circulated a spreadsheet that catalogs more than 100 outstanding Democratic requests for testimony and documents, as well as the names of administration officials in their sights. Representative Devin Nunes of California, who has used his chairmanship of the Intelligence Committee to launch an aggressive investigation of those investigating Mr. Trumps Russia ties, told supporters at a private fund-raiser that Republicans in Congress were essentially Mr. Trumps last line of defense.

If Sessions wont unrecuse and Mueller wont clear the president, were the only ones, he said, according to a recording released in August by MSNBC, which is really the danger.

Even the most liberal members of the Democratic caucus, including those who have already filed articles of impeachment against Mr. Trump, have shaded toward political pragmatism as the levers of power have come into reach. Mr. Sherman said he has set aside time in December to update his article of impeachment with new details about Mr. Cohen and other matters. But in an interview he talked as much about political probabilities as principles.

Democrats are quick to reference the impeachment of President Bill Clinton in 1998 as reason for their caution. Republicans in the House lost seats in the run-up to the 1998 midterm elections, then successfully impeached Mr. Clinton largely along party lines. But they failed to come close to a conviction in the Senate and ultimately boosted Mr. Clintons popularity. Democrats fear a similar outcome that could end up strengthening Mr. Trumps hand in the 2020 presidential election.

We need to attack the problem of corruption we see in the administration and do our oversight. But Democrats are mindful of the fact that if we want to stay in the majority, we have to show that we are responsibly governing, Mr. Schiff said in an interview.

Sidelining impeachment for now could set the body on a more gradual path toward the same end, liberal Democrats open to impeachment say. With subpoenas and gavels, they say, they could begin to unearth impeachable offenses, and embarrassing public hearings could build a public case against Mr. Trump as they await Mr. Mueller.

I think you need to build a case, said Representative Steve Cohen, Democrat of Tennessee, who has also introduced impeachment articles. And then see where the politics are.

Read more:
Democrats, Eyeing a Majority, Prepare an Investigative ...

Two months ahead of the midterm elections, Democrats hold a clear advantage over Republicans in congressional vote support, with antipathy toward President Trump fueling Democratic enthusiasm, even among those in the party who stayed home four years ago, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.

The survey also points to broad unrest and frustration with the political system generally. More than 6 in 10 Americans say Trump and the Republican Party are out of touch with most people in the country. While Democrats fare better, a narrower 51 percent majority also judged them out of touch.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Because of the overall makeup of congressional districts, analysts have long said that Democrats would need a clear advantage on this generic ballot question, and in the national popular vote for the House, if they hope to flip the 23 seats needed to take control. The Post-ABC poll puts Democrats in a stronger position today than some other recent surveys, which showed them with an edge of about eight points on this measure.

[Read full poll results | How the poll was conducted ]

Self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are slightly more likely than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to say they are absolutely certain to vote, by 80 percent to 74 percent.

Four years ago, when Republicans made gains in the midterm elections, the GOP enjoyed a 10-point advantage on this question in Post-ABC surveys that fall, 71 percent to 61 percent. The latest survey also asked whether people had voted in 2014, and among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who say they did not, 63 percent say they are absolutely certain to vote in November.

The past three midterm elections 2006, 2010 and 2014 produced substantial losses for the party that held the White House. In 2006, Republicans lost control of the House, but they regained it four years later. In 2014, they captured control of the Senate. Trumps victory in 2016 gave them full control of the executive and legislative branches.

Presidential approval has become a strong indicator of which party voters will support in midterm elections. More than 8 in 10 voters who disapprove of a presidents performance have backed opposition party candidates in recent midterm elections.

In the Post-ABC poll, more than 8 in 10 voters who approve of Trump support Republicans, while more than 8 in 10 of Trump disapprovers support Democrats. Given Trumps current ratings, this puts Republicans at a clear disadvantage heading toward November.

Through most of his presidency, Trumps approval ratings have been generally stable. His current average in surveys polling random samples of registered voters since mid-August is about 42 percent, which includes the results from the Post-ABC poll. Republicans know they will be exceedingly vulnerable in November if the president is not able to improve his standing over the next two months.

Ironically, the GOPs weak position comes even as 58 percent of Americans say the economy is excellent or good, tying ratings from January as the most positive marks in 17 years. The fact that many Republicans are worried about whether they can hold the House during a time of positive economic assessments underscores how much Trumps unpopularity has undermined the party greatest asset as fall campaigning begins.

The 38 percent minority of voters who rate the economy as not so good or poor favor Democrats over Republicans at 70 to 20 percent, a 50-point margin. But Republicans hold only a seven-point advantage with the majority of voters who view the economy positively, 49 to 42 percent.

Trump is a key factor in the asymmetry. Nearly half of voters who are upbeat about the economy still disapprove of the presidents job performance. Among this group, Democrats lead Republicans by a lopsided 74-point margin in congressional vote preferences, 83 percent to 9 percent.

When asked whether they would rather have Democrats control Congress as a check on Trump or a Republican-controlled Congress to support Trumps agenda, 60 percent of voters say they prefer having Democrats in control. In July 2017, that figure was 52 percent, at a time when Trumps job ratings were almost identical to today.

Meanwhile, 59 percent of voters say it is extremely or very important for them to support a candidate who shares their opinion of Trump, a figure that has grown seven points since April. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and 65 percent of Republicans say they are seeking candidates with similar views of the president, suggesting that Trump is a motivator for both his supporters and his opponents.

The gender gap in views of Trump continues to be a key factor looking ahead to the fall campaign, with the Post-ABC poll finding 66 percent of female registered voters disapproving of Trump, including 59 percent who disapprove strongly. Among men, 52 percent disapprove, 45 percent strongly.

Vote preferences show a similar divide, with men basically split in support for Democratic or Republican House candidates, but women favoring Democrats by 58 percent to 33 percent, a 25-point margin. Women are also nine points more likely than men to say its important for congressional candidates to share their views on Trump.

Americans sense high stakes for the November elections, which could boost turnout from a half-century low point in 2014. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters say it is more important to vote now than in past midterms. Democratic-leaning voters are more likely than Republican-leaning voters to say that voting this fall is more important than in previous midterm years, by 75 percent to 57 percent.

A Democratic takeover of the House would break unified Republican control of the federal government and give lawmakers substantial power to launch investigations of the Trump administration on a range of fronts.

Many Democrats have avoided talking about their intentions on whether to pursue impeachment proceedings that could remove Trump from office, while some Republicans, including Trumps personal attorney Rudolph W. Giuliani, have warned that Democrats would try to impeach the president.

The Post-ABC poll finds that 72 percent of adults think the Democrats would seek to impeach the president if they were in power in the House, including 79 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of Democrats. However, the country is closely divided on the question of whether Congress should begin such proceedings 49 percent are in favor and 46 percent opposed. The gap between the support for impeachment proceedings and the wider perception that Democrats would undertake them could be a liability for Democratic candidates in November.

Both parties have sought to take advantage on the issue of immigration, with Democrats hoping to exploit Trumps now-rescinded policy of separating parents and children at the border, while Republicans are casting Democrats as weak on immigration and favoring open borders that have led to increased gang crime.

The Post-ABC poll finds a 56 percent majority of adults overall think Trump is too harsh in dealing with illegal immigration, while about 3 in 10 think hes handled it about right and 1 in 10 say he is not tough enough. Asked how Democrats would govern if they won control of Congress, 47 percent think they would handle illegal immigration about right, but 43 percent think they would not be tough enough and only 4 percent believe they would be too harsh.

Trade also looms over the fall campaign, with U.S. agriculture and other industries expecting to take an economic hit from escalating trade disputes with China and other countries. The Post-ABC poll finds that 41 percent of the public supports the tariffs Trump placed on some goods imported to the United States, while 50 percent oppose them.

On the broader question of who is or is not in touch with the American people, the perception of the president and the GOP has changed little since the early days of Trumps presidency, with 63 percent saying each are out of touch. At the same time, 51 percent say the Democrats are out of touch with most people; in April 2017, it was 67 percent who thought that was the case.

This Post-ABC poll was conducted Aug. 26-29 among a national random sample of 1,003 adults including 879 registered voters. The overall results have an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, while the sample of registered voters has an error margin of plus or minus four points.

Emily Guskin contributed to this report.

See more here:
Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping ...

Get breaking news alerts and special reports. The news and stories that matter, delivered weekday mornings.

WASHINGTON It would start within minutes of special counsel Robert Mueller being fired a torrent of activity ricocheting through the halls of Congress and over television airwaves, including nearly a thousand protests being prepped from the Virgin Islands to Alaska.

Democrats have drafted a wide-ranging contingency plan should Mueller be fired or President Donald Trump take other steps to quash the Russia investigation, like firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein or pardoning key witnesses.

Of top concern in the first 24 hours of such a move would be preventing Muellers documents from being destroyed and his team disbanded, according to interviews with nearly a dozen lawmakers, congressional aides, Democratic operatives and attorneys involved in the planning.

Almost immediately, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer would consult with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, while Democrats would demand a floor vote on a bill retroactively protecting Mueller and protecting his materials. In both the Senate and House, rank-and-file Democrats would contact a list of sympathetic Republicans who have signaled privately that theyd be willing to act should Trump pull the trigger.

"Weve had a lot of conversations about how exactly and who and when and where," Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat who sits on the Judiciary Committee, told NBC News. "There have been several moments when it seemed imminent."

And in cities across the country, rallies would be hastily scheduled for 5 p.m., if Mueller is fired before 2 p.m. on any given day. If hes fired in the late afternoon or evening, the protests would be set for noon the following day.

The Democratic group MoveOn.org has been organizing 933 such rallies, with locations picked out and sponsors enlisted to handle logistics. The list includes rallies in big cities like Los Angeles, along with protests in more remote areas, such as the federal buildings in Bismarck, North Dakota, and Hilo, Hawaii.

Its unclear how many people would actually turn out, but more than 350,000 people have RSVP'd online to attend. The campaign director for MoveOn, David Sievers, said the group expects that the number of protests will grow and that far more would sign up to attend once news broke of Trumps actions.

Any success in protecting Mueller would depend heavily on a sudden change of heart by Republicans and their leaders, who have largely defended Trump and thus far refused to allow a full Senate vote on legislation to protect the investigation.

Still, Democrats are hoping that a Mueller firing would be considered so egregious that even Trump's fellow Republicans would be pushed past a tipping point.

Coons predicted that "within minutes" of a Mueller firing, dozens of Republicans would either voice opposition publicly or phone the president or his chief of staff to register their objection privately. But he acknowledged that many Republicans have been coy, refusing to say even behind closed doors what actions theyd be willing to take.

Documents have already been drawn up for a number of contingencies, including a "Saturday Night Massacre" scenario in which Trump systematically fires top Justice Department officials who refuse to fire Mueller until one of them agrees to do so.

The concern has taken on a fresh urgency in recent days as the investigation has tightened around Trump.

On Tuesday, former Trump personal attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to eight counts, including two involving hush-money payments to women that Cohen said were made at the direction of a candidate, referring to Trump. In a breathtaking string of events, within minutes Trumps former campaign chair Paul Manafort was found guilty in another federal court on eight counts of tax evasion and bank fraud, creating fresh concerns for the president that Manafort might cooperate with the special counsels investigation.

Warned Schumer, hours later: He better not talk about pardons for Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort, tonight or any time in the future."

Trump, appearing late Tuesday at a rally in West Virginia, didnt mention potential pardons. Yet in an interview on Monday, the president had told Reuters that hes totally allowed to be involved in the investigation.

I could run it if I want," Trump said.

Democrats have also revisited their contingency plans in recent days amid signs the president feels emboldened both to punish those involved in the investigation and to influence it directly.

Last week, after revoking former CIA Director John Brennans security clearance and threatening to do the same to other current and former intelligence officials, Trump said that he felt it "had to be done" because "these people led" the Russia probe.

It was the latest sign that even the most senior Republican leaders can neither restrain the president nor predict what lines he will or wont cross. After all, House Speaker Paul Ryan had dismissed Trumps earlier threat to terminate Brennans security clearance as mere "trolling," as Rep. Adam Schiff, the House Intelligence Committees top Democrat, pointed out this week on Twitter.

Other senior figures in the investigation have been fired or forced out since Trump took office, including former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates, former FBI Director Jim Comey and former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe.

After a Mueller or Rosenstein firing, Democrats would take to the floors of the Senate and House to call for obstruction of justice hearings and a special congressional committee to pick up the investigation, similar to the Senate Watergate Committee.

Democratic political groups would demand that the Senate be shut down until theres a resolution, denying all requests for unanimous consent. Some would call for impeachment proceedings against the president, while others would stop just short, officials involved in the planning said.

To speed up the response, congressional aides said language has been drafted for letters that House Democratic leaders would send to committee chairmen demanding hearings; to inspectors general demanding investigations; and to White House Counsel Don McGahn and the Justice Department demanding information about their communications before the firing.

Mueller himself might be called to testify quickly before Congress. There have been early discussions about whether, if the investigation were shut down and Democrats win a majority in the House in November, they could subpoena testimony already given to the grand jury in the Russia investigation. At a minimum, newly empowered Democrats would call up those who have previously testified and demand they tell Congress what they told the grand jury.

Planning for such emergency Mueller-firing scenarios began more than a year ago, shortly after Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself from the Russia inquiry and then appointed a special counsel. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosis team started working on a playbook with Schumers team, along with top Democrats on the Judiciary and Oversight panels in Congress.

Meanwhile, a coalition of mostly liberal advocacy groups banded together to hire the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner starting in the summer of 2017 to research how the American people felt about the integrity of the Russia investigation. Jeremy Rosner, a partner at the polling firm, said Americans found Mueller to be credible because he was a lifelong Republican who served in the administrations of both parties.

"People were determined to protect the investigation, let Mueller do his job," Rosner said. Still, the polling right away identified that the issue was fluid and that new events could quickly change the perception, underscoring the need for a concerted messaging strategy to shape public opinion.

A "Friday group" of Democrats involved in key committees continues to meet weekly to discuss the Russia investigation, while another weekly meeting takes place among a coalition of outside advocacy groups such as MoveOn, Public Citizen, Indivisible, Common Cause and People for the American Way. Liberal legal organizations such as the American Constitution Society are also involved in drafting legal strategies that could be deployed if needed, individuals involved in the effort said. The American Constitution Society didnt respond to requests for comment.

Over the last year, the level of concern that Trump might actually kill the investigation has ebbed and flowed, punctuated by his efforts to discredit Mueller on Twitter, his calls for Sessions to stop the investigation and his insistence echoed by the White House that he has the power to fire the special counsel himself. Although some legal experts have questioned that, they do not question that one way or another Trump, through his power to fire the Justice Department officials supervising Mueller, could get rid of the special counsel.

There have been false alarms before.

A scare in April, on Friday the 13th, had Democratic groups and lawmakers on the verge of putting their plan into action. Trump, sensing he was losing control over the investigation, had been going hard after Rosenstein, especially after the special counsel handed off part of the investigation dealing with former Trump personal attorney Michael Cohen to a different team of prosecutors in the Manhattan U.S. attorneys office.

So when Rosenstein headed to the White House for a meeting with Trump, speculation about his imminent dismissal reached fever pitch in Washington.

"The rumors were sounding very specific. They were sounding really imminent," said Elizabeth Beavers of the group Indivisible, part of the coalition organizing the response plan.

Activists across the country whod agreed to organize rallies started advertising to remind people where to show up if needed. Indivisible hosted an emergency Facebook Live video chat to lay out the plan and solicit more phone numbers for potential protesters.

And in Congress, Democrats huddled in their offices long after the sun went down, anticipating the news that never came.

"That was a very late night," said Coons, the Delaware senator.

Different Democrats have laid out different red lines for what actions by Trump would trigger a full-blown crisis response. In December, Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Trump would be breaching a red line if he removed Mueller from his job, pardoned key witnesses or shut down the investigation. MoveOn has added replacing Rosenstein or repealing the special counsel regulations to the list, but notes that firing Sessions who remains recused from the Russia probe would "be one step short of the break glass moment."

The most likely legislative vehicle for trying to protect Mueller after the fact would be a compromise bill co-sponsored by Coons and Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., along with GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. That bill would put in statute that the special counsel could challenge his firing in U.S. District Court, and would require his personnel, documents and materials to be preserved in the meantime.

Although the bill already passed the Senate Judiciary Committee with bipartisan support, McConnell has said it wont get a vote on the Senate floor, arguing theres no need because the president wont really fire Mueller.

But the bill specifically states that its retroactive meaning it could be passed after Mueller was fired and still protect him. Democrats are counting on the fact that the public uproar after a special counsel ouster would be enough to change McConnells mind and allow a vote.

Originally posted here:
In case of Mueller firing, break glass: Democrats prep an ...

Democrats are in a strong position for the midterms, according to the latest Fox News poll.

Several findings point to the potential for a blue map in November:

- President Trumps job rating remains underwater.

- Republicans alone say the economy is in positive shape.

- The GOP tax law is less popular (40 percent favorable) than Obamacare (51 percent favorable).

- The Republican Party is less popular (39 percent favorable) than the Democratic Party (50 percent favorable).

- Optimism about life for the next generation of Americans is down eight points from last year.

- There is greater enthusiasm to vote in the midterms among out-of-power Democrats.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL POLL RESULTS

Meanwhile, the Trump/Russia probe isnt going away. Approval of Special Counsel Robert Mueller stands at 59 percent, up 11 points since July, and 40 percent expect the investigation will find Trump committed criminal or impeachable offenses, up 5 points. Tuesday afternoon, a jury found former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort guilty of tax and bank fraud in the first trial to come out of Muellers probe and, around that same time, Trumps former personal attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to campaign-finance violations and other charges.

The national registered voter poll was conducted Sunday through Tuesday.

The survey shows if the election were today, 49 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 38 percent the Republican. Thats an 11-point edge. Democrats were up by 8 points last month (48-40 percent) and 9 points in June (48-39 percent). Given that Democrats vote is stacked in urban districts, experts estimate they need to carry the generic ballot test by about 10 percentage points to take over the House.

With Election Day just over two months away, more 2016 Hillary Clinton voters are extremely interested in the midterms than Trump voters (58 vs. 48 percent). They are also more enthusiastic about casting a ballot (51 vs. 37 percent) and more certain they will vote (76 vs. 67 percent).

Another takeaway: it comes down to women. While the vote preference among men splits, women back the Democratic congressional candidate by 19 points. In 2014, women backed the Democrat by 4 points, while men went for the Republican by 16.

Overall, when the ballot results are narrowed to extremely interested voters, Democrats hold a 56-38 percent advantage. And when narrowed to counties where the 2016 presidential vote was close (Clinton and Trump within 10 points), Democrats are up by 45-39 percent.

The Democratic edge in battleground counties is telling, says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. These are where the competitive districts are that they need to flip to put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speakers chair.

Voters say health care and the economy (18 percent each) will be most important to their vote for Congress, followed closely by party control of the House (14 percent), President Trump (13 percent), and immigration (10 percent).

President Trumps overall approval stands at 45 percent, while 53 percent disapprove. Last month, it was 46-51 percent. His highest ratings, 48-47 percent, came soon after taking office (February 2017). The low was 38-57 percent in October 2017.

Among groups, some of the presidents highest approval comes from Trump voters (93 percent) and very conservative voters (89 percent), while some of the lowest approval comes from black voters (13 percent) and Democrats (12 percent).

The president receives negative ratings on border security (44 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove), international trade (39-53), immigration (39-57), foreign policy (37-55), health care (36-55), and race relations (33-58). His only positive job rating is on the economy (49-44).

Nearly half of voters, 47 percent, give the economy an excellent or good rating, while just over half, 51 percent, rate it only fair or poor. The net positive rating is up 11 points from a year ago, and up 23 points from August 2016. Plus, 12 percent feel the economy is in excellent condition. In trend going back to 1998, that number has been higher only twice -- and once was during Trumps presidency. A record 17 percent said excellent in January 2018.

Its striking how much these views are driven by partisanship. Only Republicans give the economy positive ratings (73 percent excellent or good). Most Democrats (67 percent) and independents (67 percent) say the economy is in fair or poor shape.

When voters are asked, without being read a list, who or what they think is most responsible for the current economy, the most frequent answer is President Trump and Republicans. Forty-four percent feel that way. Former President Obama and Democrats are a distant second at 15 percent.

Pollpourri

Thirty-two percent think life for the next generation of Americans will be better than life today. Thats down from 40 percent last summer. More than twice as many Republicans (50 percent) as Democrats (20 percent) and independents (22 percent) think life will be better. Voters under age 30 are less likely than other age groups to be optimistic for the next generation.

Thirty-six percent of voters think the U.S. moving away from capitalism and more toward socialism would be a good thing, up from 20 percent in 2012. That shift is driven by a jump among voters under 30, as 60 percent say it would be good. It was 29 percent in 2012.

Approval of Congress is out of the teens for the first time since March 2015. Currently, 23 percent of voters approve, up from 19 percent in April. Sixty-eight percent disapprove.

Forty-one percent have a favorable view of President Trump. That makes him more popular than House Speaker Paul Ryan (31 percent favorable), Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (22 percent), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (28 percent) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (29 percent). All of these leaders have higher unfavorables than favorables.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,009 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from August 19-21, 2018. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.

Continue reading here:
Fox News Poll: Democrats maintain lead in race for House ...