Analysis: Many in South Texas split their vote between Trump and Democrats – The Texas Tribune
Editor's note: If you'd like an email notice whenever we publish Ross Ramsey's column, click here.
If you would like to listen to the column, just click on the play button below.
All but one of the Republicans running statewide campaigns in Texas this year beat their opponents by 8 to 11 percentage points. The one? President Donald Trump, who beat Joe Biden by 5.8 percentage points.
Statewide, Texas Republicans outperformed the leader of their ticket.
In several places along the Texas border, the opposite happened. Much has been written about Trumps strong performance in the persistently blue counties on the Texas-Mexico border. His border supporters were numerous and enthusiastic. The New York Times sent reporters to Zapata County, which flipped from its customary spot on the Democratic side of the aisle to a seat on the Republican side. The Wall Street Journal went to Starr, where Trump improved dramatically on historical Republican results.
But its not like those blue counties switched sides altogether. Voters there supported Trump in most cases that meant he still lost, but by less than in his first race in 2016 but then many of them went back to voting more or less like they usually do.
Start with Zapata County. Chrysta Castaeda, a Democrat running for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission, beat Republican Jim Wright in Zapata by 531 votes. (Wright won statewide, by almost 10 percentage points.) At the same time, Trump was beating Biden in Zapata County by 212 votes.
Castaeda wasnt the odd duck on that countys ballots. Trump was. While he was winning, the same Republican candidates who outperformed him statewide were often losing. U.S. Sen. John Cornyn landed 363 votes behind MJ Hegar. Nathan Hecht, the chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court, lost to Democrat Amy Clark Meachum in Zapata by 512 votes. The chief got 53% of the statewide vote, but in Zapata County, he only got 41%.
Its both interesting and not that consequential. Only 3,279 people voted in Zapata County. Many of the border counties are rural, and a change in a relatively small number of votes can produce outsized percentage shifts.
Even so, this election marked a significant and unusual change of direction. If Trump had performed like the rest of the Republican ticket, the border votes wouldnt be a topic of conversation. And in some ways, the numbers point to a result thats more complicated than a county moving from one party to the other.
Several of these counties only did it for the president.
Some actually flipped, like Val Verde County, where Del Rio is the county seat. Trump won by 1,438 votes. Cornyn won by 1,454. Hecht didnt hold the same margin, but he finished 612 votes ahead of Meachum.
In others, Trump closed the gap but still lost to Biden. In Starr County, where Rio Grande City is the seat, Trump lost by 875 votes or 5 percentage points. Thats a remarkably good showing for a Republican in a statewide race. At the same time, Wright, the Republican in the Railroad Commission race, was losing by 3,581 votes to Castaeda, the Democrat. Thats a 25-percentage-point gap. Hechts numbers were similar the kind of results Republicans have come to expect in what has been a reliably Democratic part of the state.
Statewide, more than 447,890 people who voted in the presidential race didnt vote in the lowest race on the statewide ballot, a contest for a seat on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals. By that point, voters had looked at all of the statewide races and their local race for Congress. They were just about to enter the section of the ballot for seats in the Texas Legislature.
Some wore out even faster: 172,135 fewer people voted in the second race on the ballot for U.S. senator than in the presidential race.
That means 98.5% were still around for the Senate race, and 97.3% of the presidential voters stuck in there until that judicial race. Statewide, fewer than 3% quit the ballot before voting in the legislative races.
Some of the presidents border voters hung in there. In Val Verde County, 96.5% made it from the presidential race down to the chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court. But in Zapata County, just under 85% did, and in Starr County, about 79% made it.
The rest voted in the top races and then went on about their business.
Disclosure: The New York Times has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
See the article here:
Analysis: Many in South Texas split their vote between Trump and Democrats - The Texas Tribune
- Democrats' redistricting win sparks a new party war in California - Politico - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Democrats spy rare opening in rural America - Politico - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- 5 Hard Truths Democrats Must Face on Education - Washington Monthly - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Trump calls for release of any Epstein files naming Democrats: "Embarrass them" - CBS News - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Democrats should avoid impeaching Trump at all costs | Opinion - USA Today - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- House Democrats Demand More Support for Latino Candidates in 2026 - NOTUS News of the United States - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Trump urges Department of Justice to release names of 'all' Democrats in Epstein files - Anadolu Ajans - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Theres a whole new bench of progressive creators: how Democrats can catch up in the online space - The Guardian - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Trump demands US Justice Department embarrass Democrats with ties to Epstein - The Times of Israel - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Mass. Democrats are pushing back against the Trump administration. Theres only so much they can do. - The Boston Globe - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Meet the Montana GOP lawmakers who were kicked out of their party for voting with Democrats - CBS News - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- The problem for Democrats is nominating candidates who are too far left: Former WH official - Fox News - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Trump says he cut ties with Epstein early, accuses Democrats and media of witch hunt against him - Anadolu Ajans - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Democrats Chances of Flipping the House From Republicans in 2026 - Newsweek - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- The passage of Proposition 50, which redrew Californias congressional map, means that all of the states conservative north is likely to be represented... - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Ohio labor unions, traditional allies of Democrats, have drifted right - News 5 Cleveland WEWS - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Affordability? Abundance? Aspiration? As 2026 looms, which message will Democrats run with? - San Francisco Chronicle - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- How will Republicans and Democrats respond to the delayed release of the Epstein files? - CBS News - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- What Are the Odds Democrats Flip the House in the 2026 Midterms? - InsuranceNewsNet - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Im busy and focused on winning the House for the Democrats in 2026: Pelosi - ABC News - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- Pelosi Confident Democrats Will Retake House in 2026, Jeffries to Become Speaker - VINnews - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- US President Donald Trump is blaming the Democrats for the latest Epstein files release and is accusing them of pushing a hoax. - facebook.com - December 29th, 2025 [December 29th, 2025]
- With Trump in Power, Democrats Try to Redefine Themselves as Disrupters - The New York Times - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats Are Ending the Year on a Particularly Dumb Note - Slate - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Opinion | Democrats hopes lie in a House win. But how much would it slow Trump? - The Washington Post - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- 20 NC legislators are running unopposed, and they're all Democrats - WUNC - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Congressional Democrats push for remaining Epstein files to be released - CBS News - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- E&E News: Senate Democrats threaten permitting talks over offshore wind - POLITICO Pro - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Makeovers are part of the prep for Democrats eyeing the White House in 2028 - Axios - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Missouri Democrats, outnumbered and at odds, face a test of unity - Missouri Independent - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Could a group of women veteran Hellcats help Democrats flip the House in 2026? - Reuters - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Republicans, Democrats have a way for clergy to rejoin Social Security rolls - Union-Bulletin - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats are united in bashing GOP on Obamacare. Medicare for All could reopen a rift. - Politico - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Senate Democrats cut off permitting talks after Trumps wind farm pause - The Hill - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats demand answers from Rubio on deal to send MS-13 informants to El Salvador - The Hill - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Mike Johnson warns of another Trump impeachment if Democrats win out in 2026 - Colorado Politics - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats make plans to challenge DOJ on the release of Epstein files - thv11.com - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- The Democrats Had One Huge Shutdown Win. Trump Tried to Thwart It. He Just Failed. - Slate - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats Threaten Legal Action Over Epstein Files - WBOC TV - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- The real lessons Democrats should learn from the fractured GOP coalition - Bleeding Heartland - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Theyre attacking their own: DC Democrats irked by surge of left-wing challengers with House majority on the line - CNN - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Wisconsin Democrats say they wont act like Republicans if they win a legislative majority in 2026 - Wisconsin Watch - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats threaten legal action over unreleased Jeffrey Epstein files - cbs19.tv - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats threaten legal action over partial release of Epstein files - CBS News - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- The risks of Democrats embracing eat-the-rich populism - The Japan Times - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats Try Out All of the Above Energy Pitch - Bloomberg - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- White Christian clergy running for Congress as Democrats face skeptics in their own party - Anabaptist World - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- House Democrats Squander the Opportunity of Trumpian Corruption - The American Prospect - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- Democrats Are Getting Their Own MAGA Makeovers - The Daily Beast - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- In Fraught US Energy Fights, All of the Above Is Now Democrats Pitch - Bloomberg - December 25th, 2025 [December 25th, 2025]
- How Democrats Used the Word Affordability to Take On Trump - The New York Times - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Democrats see health care subsidies leverage in shutdown deadline - thehill.com - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Democrats are making 2028 moves. Heres what to know - CNN - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Examining Democrats 2025 Victories in Pennsylvania and What They Could Mean for the Future - The Center for Politics at UVA - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- DNC won't release its report on what went wrong for Democrats in 2024 - NBC News - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Even Democrats dont care if Bill Clinton is burnt by Epstein - The Times - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Andy Beshear builds buzz among Democrats for possible White House run - thehill.com - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Frustrations mount among survivors about House Democrats selective releases of Epstein files and photos - CNN - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- House Democrats release more Epstein photos, including Bill Gates and a dinner full of wealthy philanthropists - Fortune - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- If Democrats Campaign on Stopping Scam Calls, Theyll Be Re-Elected Forever - Home Current Affairs - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- In a close 2025 defeat, Democrats see the beginnings of a 2026 red-state surprise - CNN - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Democrats will not release the autopsy of their 2024 presidential loss - CNN - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- What the Government Shutdown Actually Revealed for Democrats - Home Current Affairs - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Trump at NC rally: Democrats will shut down government in January - thehill.com - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- STRUZZI: DEMOCRATS DODGED VOTE ON BILL PROTECTING WOMENS SPORTS - WCCS AM1160 & 101.1FM - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Blue Horizons: Charting the Path Forward for Texas Democrats - Houston Public Media - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Democrats demand answers as green card ceremonies are abruptly canceled - NewsNation - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Video Democrats react to expected partial release of Epstein files - ABC News - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Our message is simple: Democrats unite as GOP again struggles to address health care - Politico - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Barack Obama tells House Democrats that party should focus on the midterms, not ideological divides - ABC News - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Top Banking and Financial Services Democrats Joined by Dodd-Frank Authors File Amicus Brief Challenging the Administration's Illegal Efforts to... - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Jan. 6 police hero becomes go-to witness for Democrats in Congress to counter Trump - CBS News - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- WisDems: ICYMI: Wisconsin Democrats, Main Street Action hold press conference to address the bealth care crisis as ACA open enrollment for January 1st... - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats From Schumer to Mamdani to AOC Face Big Year in 2026 - Bloomberg.com - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Missouri Sen. Hawley Votes with Democrats to Extend Health Care Subsidies Amid Local Concerns - KOAM News Now - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats Are Playing with Fire in Texas - The Liberal Patriot - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- White Christian Clergy Running for Congress As Democrats Face Skeptics in Their Own Party - Word&Way - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- What we know about the Epstein photos released by Democrats - PBS - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats gather in California feeling sunny once again - Politico - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Top Democrats call for investigation into share-buying spree by Trump allies - The Guardian - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]