Archive for the ‘Democrats’ Category

Democrats may lose U.S. Senate

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Washington (CNN) -- Democrats have a message for voters during the final, frenzied day of campaigning: All is not lost.

Party leaders insist they can still hold onto the Senate -- their last bastion of power on Capitol Hill -- and are spending the remaining hours before the polls open on Tuesday trying to convince their voters not to give up.

"I don't agree with the oddsmakers," Vice President Joe Biden said in an exclusive interview with CNN Chief Political Analyst Gloria Borger. "I predict we're gonna ... keep the Senate."

Everything would have to break for Democrats just right for Biden's optimism to carry the day. New polls in states that Democrats must win if they have any hope of keeping the Senate aren't promising.

In New Hampshire, a WMUR poll released Sunday shows Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican challenger Scott Brown in a deeply competitive race. The poll puts Shaheen's support at 46% with Brown at 43%. The race narrows further -- with Shaheen at 47% against Brown at 45% -- once undecided voters are asked who they are most likely to support.

The numbers are troubling for Democrats because a WMUR poll just a few days earlier showed Shaheen leading Brown 50% to 42%.

A Quinnipiac University poll in Iowa shows the Senate race there in a dead heat, with Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst at 47%. That could provide some comfort to Democrats after a Des Moines Register poll had Ernst up by 7 points over the weekend.

Though Republicans appear on track to take the Senate majority for the first time in nearly a decade, polls can be wrong and might miss important shifts in the electorate during the final hours of the election.

But veteran Republican power broker Haley Barbour told CNN's "The Lead with Jake Tapper," that it was looking good for his side.

See the original post here:
Democrats may lose U.S. Senate

Democrats, Republicans scramble to round up last-minute votes

With less than 24 hours left until polls open, Democrats and Republicans scrambled Monday to turn out every possible vote for their candidates. Party strategists in key states scrutinized early vote statistics and weather reports ahead of what both sides expect to be a number of nail-bitingly close contests.

Live updates: Election 2014

In the final hours before Election Day, it is clear that both parties believe that the midterm election has become a referendum on those now holding power. On the federal level, that works for Republicans, who need a net gain of six seats to recapture control of the Senate for the first time since the 2006 elections.

On the state level, that works for both Democrats and Republicans, each of whom see the opportunity to knock off unpopular governors in key states.

Polling in recent months has shown Republicans leading consistently in Senate races in five states West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas and Louisiana. More recent surveys have shown the Republican nominee in Alaska, former attorney general Dan Sullivan (R), pulling ahead of Sen. Mark Begich (D), though some surveys show Begich with a lead. In North Carolina, Sen. Kay Hagan (D) holds the narrowest of leads over state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in what has become the most expensive Senate race in history.

The Fixs Chris Cillizza breaks down how close the battle for the Senate really is. (The Washington Post)

The Senate seats that are up for grabs this year favored Republican gains: President Obama lost six of those seven states by wide margins, and lost North Carolina by a slimmer margin.

But Democrats are most nervous about polling and early voting data that show Senate contests in two states that Obama won Colorado and Iowa moving against them.

In Colorado, polls have shown Rep. Cory Gardner (R) leading Sen. Mark Udall (D) for months. Republicans hold a distinct advantage in the early voting statistics: Data released by the secretary of states office show that registered Republicans account for 40.5 percent of the 1.3 million people who have cast a ballot, compared with 32.5 percent who are registered Democrats.

Democrats tend to vote later in Colorado, so that eight-point Republican advantage is likely to shrink. On Election Day 2010, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) trailed his Republican opponent by six points and made up enough ground to win by one. This year, Republicans have spent much more on a ground operation aimed at collecting ballots from voters who might not otherwise vote, a decision that appears to have paid off.

View original post here:
Democrats, Republicans scramble to round up last-minute votes

Democrats sign up thousands of new voters, but will they cast ballots?

Democrats in California have signed up tens of thousands of new voters in recent months, but a big question in Tuesday's election is whether enough of them will cast ballots to stave off erosion of the party's dominance in the state.

The new voters, many of them Latino or Asian, are heavily concentrated in fiercely contested legislative districts in Orange and Ventura counties, the South Bay, and the Antelope and San Joaquin valleys. Fearing that a national election climate favoring Republicans could cost them legislative seats, Democrats dispatched hundreds of troops to register new voters in those areas.

Adding to Democrats' worries have been a lackluster governor's race and a menu of less-than-alluring ballot measures, all but ensuring a low-turnout election which typically draws a disproportionately large share of older white voters who lean Republican.

"There's nothing sexy on the ballot," said Sergio Carrillo, an advisor to Democrat Tony Mendoza in his pitched battle for an eastern Los Angeles County state Senate seat that would normally be out of reach for Republicans.

Most Democrats running for statewide office Gov. Jerry Brown, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris among them appear to have little to fear Tuesday, polls show. The party's secretary of state candidate, state Sen. Alex Padilla of Pacoima, is the one who appears to face the most serious challenge from a Republican rival, Pepperdine University think tank director Pete Peterson.

Democrats are also certain to maintain a strong majority of the state's congressional delegation, although a few of the most hard-fought U.S. House races in the country are in California. Voters in San Diego, Ventura and Sacramento counties have been swamped by mail and other advertising in those contests.

But Republicans are all but sure to maintain their House majority; the question is by how big a margin.

The stakes are arguably higher in the California Legislature. Democrats are trying to regain their two-thirds supermajority in the Senate and maintain the one they have in the Assembly. A supermajority enables Democrats to raise taxes and put some ballot measures before voters with no Republican support, among other things.

Republicans acknowledge the Democrats' heavy investment in registration drives could prove a formidable threat Tuesday but not if the new voters don't bother to cast ballots.

"The biggest obstacle for them remains: Can they get those new voters to the polls?" said Peter DeMarco, a spokesman for state Senate Republican leader Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar).

See the rest here:
Democrats sign up thousands of new voters, but will they cast ballots?

For Democrats It's Either Turnout or Burnout

The final Senate polls are out and Democrats look to be on the ropes going into Tuesdays election. Republicans, of course, need a net pickup of six seats and it looks like they are closer to getting just that. They may even get one or two more. A poll or two can be wrong; seldom are they all wrong all at once. Nonetheless, many of the polls are close and there are last minute factors that can change things.

The most notable fly in the ointment for the GOP and the deus ex machina for the Democrats is the vaunted voter identification and turnout operation that the Democrats are known for. Polls show that more Republican likely voters are enthusiastic about voting than Democratic likely voters. But the polls also show that there are simply more Democrats than Republicans. So call that one equal. Hence, the polls are showing close races. Independents are sending us clear messages that they are leaning Republican but are mainly fed up with both parties and pretty much everything. Independents, it appears, will be the only Americans relieved when television returns to advertising by used car and furniture businesses.

It has been very clear for months that this election and the final two years of the Obama administration will turn on the health of the Obama coalition. If the Democrats can bring young people and non-whites out to vote, not necessarily in numbers that match their turnouts in 2008 and 2012 but at least in higher numbers than 2010, they can hold on to the Senate. Even in 2010, when turnouts nationwide of these essential groups in the Democratic coalition were down considerably, efforts to increase their presence in the polls in some states actually made a difference. Senator Michael Bennett of Colorado was behind in just about every pre-election statewide poll before the election, but an over 70% turnout of Hispanics and over 80% support from them put him over the top. The same kind of Hispanic turnouts and support were critical in the victories of Senators Harry Reid of Nevada and Barbara Boxer of California.

Early voting seems to suggest that the Democrats have some reason to hope for better returns than the polls indicate. As I write this, African American turnout thus far in both Georgia and North Carolina is higher than normal. That clearly boosts the chances of North Carolinas Senator Kay Hagan and Georgias Michelle Nunn. Early voting returns in Iowa and Colorado indicate a significantly higher turnout among voters who did not vote in 2010, suggesting that many of those are younger and non-white. On the flip side, however, the latest round of polls in Iowa show Republican Joni Ernst with a 7 point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley, while the latest in Colorado has Republican Cory Gardner now leading incumbent Senator Mark Udall by 4 points. If those polls are right, then even a superb Democratic voter turnout machine is at a great disadvantage. (For the record: Ann Seltzer conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register. Her record is spotless but some experts are scratching their heads at her latest poll showing Ernst leading 51% to 44%. But Ann is a very good pollster and the experts are nothing without good pollsters.)

I wont make predictions. If the Democrats have this superior turnout machine, it better be very good on Tuesday. Very very good.

A final note about this campaign. Voters want problem-solving and consensus-building. But they also want authenticity. How can Democrats run against (or at least deny) their own party leader the President of the United States and think they can win? This is very curious especially when he and his First Lady are the only people who can rally the partys base? The GOP has been at least true to itself by saying we are not Obama, but offering little else. History will probably be kind to Mr. Obama for turning an economy around, ending two wars, making huge strides for equal pay for women, and advancing the rights of gay Americans. The message of income inequality was a good one and got drowned out when Democratic campaigners decided to reject their most effective messenger.

Read the original post:
For Democrats It's Either Turnout or Burnout

Math is forbidding for Democrats in struggle for Senate

On the last day of the 2014 campaign, Democrats knew they were in trouble.

Long ago, the party had given up hope of winning back the House in Tuesdays midterm elections. By Monday, it had skipped ahead to winning the post-election blame game. House Democrats have succeeded on every measure within our control, the partys House campaign committee announced preemptively in the early afternoon.

And at the end of a bitter and massively expensive campaign, it appeared the Senate might be slipping from Democrats grasp as well.

In all, there are 13 states where Senate seats might change from one party to the other. Republicans need to win nine of them to attain a 51-seat majority in the Senate for the first time since 2007. On Monday, Republicans seem to be leading, by a lot or by a little, in eight of those races.

If the GOP wins all those eight, they will need just one more win one of the toss-up races in Alaska and Kansas, or perhaps the runoff race thats expected in Louisiana.

The Fixs Chris Cillizza breaks down how close the battle for the Senate really is. (The Washington Post)

Victory is in the air, declared Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the Senate minority leader who is set to become majority leader if the Republicans take over. McConnell was beginning the last swing of his own reelection campaign against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.

Like other contests around the country, that race seemed to be tilting toward Republicans in the last days. Lets go out there and sock it to them! the usually subdued McConnell said in closing, as a loudspeaker started blasting out Eye of the Tiger.

There also will be gubernatorial elections Tuesday in 36 states, including Florida, Massachusetts, Kansas, Maine and Wisconsin, where potential presidential candidate Scott Walker (R) is in a close race to keep his position. Republicans, who already control a majority of the countrys state legislative chambers, seem likely to win several more.

But the nights big prize is the U.S. Senate.

Here is the original post:
Math is forbidding for Democrats in struggle for Senate