Could Democrats Win the House in November? History Says No.
There are a number of reasons the Democrats will almost certainly not win back the House of Representatives in 2014: Congressional redistricting after the 2010 Census favored the Republicans. The GOP has a small army of well-heeled incumbents on the fall ballot. And this years primaries did not roil the waters; they sent only three Republican House members (and one Democrat) to the sidelines.
But arguably the most compelling factor working against House Democrats is history. They need a net gain of 17 seats in November to reach a majority of 218. That, in itself, is not a particularly daunting number.
But it is when one looks at the midterm election results of the past century and a half.
Only four times since 1862 has the presidents party netted a gain of even one House seat in a midterm election. And in no midterm since the Civil War has the net gain by the presidents party exceeded nine seats, barely half of what the Democrats would need to win control of the House next month. This, according to data published in Vital Statistics on American Politics 2011-2012.
On all four of these occasions that the presidents party scored midterm House gains, the occupant of the White House was near the height of his popularity: Theodore Roosevelt in 1902, when the GOP posted midterm gains after the House had undergone a major expansion; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, his first midterm held in the initial stages of the New Deal; Bill Clinton in 1998, when congressional Republicans made an ill-starred attempt to impeach him; and George W. Bush in the 2002 midterm, which was held between the 9/11 attacks and the launch of the war in Iraq.
Barack Obamas position these days is much weaker. His presidential approval rating is well under 50%, down in the arid terrain where the presidents party invariably loses House seats.
To be sure, no one is predicting huge House losses for the Democrats this timethey dont have that many vulnerable seats left after losing 63 in 2010. But hardly anyone is predicting that they will win a House majority next month either. If you find someone who does, take the bet. History says that it should be a safe one.
Rhodes Cook is a political analyst and publisher of a bimonthly political newsletter.
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Could Democrats Win the House in November? History Says No.