The 2022 MLB season is finally here. With just days to go until Opening Day, hope is high among all teams that this will be their year to win a World Series or at least have an enjoyable 162-game season.
With the new campaign comes the intrigue over how it will turn out. Not many expected the Braves to win their fourth World Series title at the beginning of the 2021 season. Now in the new year, they'll have a target on their backs as several teams loaded up this offseason with the goal of avoiding a repeat champion. But just who will it be that claims the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the year?
The Sporting News is unveiling a model to project the 2022 MLB season and make predictions based on the results. The model works by using past player data to project how they will perform in 2022. Those player stats are then merged in with their current teams to evaluate how good each team's lineups, rotation and bullpens will be in the 2022 season.
FIVE BIG QUESTIONS:AL East | AL Central | AL WestNL East | NL Central | NL West
Each game is then simulated 20,000 times with park factors included in each matchup. From there, the model simulates the postseason based on the outcomes of the regular season to decide who will win the World Series. The results of each simulation are tallied together to create the most likely outcomes of the divisions, playoffs and World Series. The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the 20,000 simulations.
Below are the picks and predictions made by The Sporting News' model for how the 2022 MLB season is going to unfold.
The AL East is the best division in baseball, and it doesn't take a model to know that. Last year, the division placed three teams in the playoffs the most of any division in baseball and it expects to be right back in that same position next year. But how does the model see it shaking out?
The Sporting News' model sees the Blue Jays as a slim favorite to win the division over the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but it expects all four teams to reach the playoffs. Toronto's lineup starring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez is the best in the American League, and its offense will carry it through the season to one of the league's best records. Marcus Semien might have left in free agency, but Toronto acquired Matt Chapman to man third and give the team a star defender to the left of Bichette. Losing Robbie Ray and Steven Matz will hurt the rotation, but the addition of Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi, along with a full season of Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah will help bolster the pitching staff.
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The Raysare that team that is constantly underloved by metrics and subsequently overperforms. The model has them in third in the AL East, but it would surprise no one to see them win the division. Wander Franco, Shane Baz and Shane McClanahan are expected to take up major roles on the team in their second seasons with the club, and Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe will again be dangerous at the plate.
The Red Soxsurprised some people with their run to the ALCS in 2021, and Boston expects to be back in the mix for the playoffs again in 2022. For all the talk of Bichette and Guerrero Jr. being a dynamic infield presence, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers also are a dangerous pair of bats from the left side of the infield. Now, the Red Sox also have Trevor Story, who should certainly enjoy teeing off the Green Monster. The front end of the rotation offers some star arms in Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale and Tanner Houck, who can match up with many of the best in the AL.
Fans of the Yankeesare disappointed that New York wasn't able to land any major name in free agency, but that doesn't stop the model from being bullish on the Bronx Bombers' chances to make the playoffs. Joey Gallo should improve without the shift, and Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson make for three of the best right-handed power bats in the sport when healthy. But more than anything, the model is high on the pitching, with Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery and a healthy Luis Severino leading the team in 2022.
This is not expected to be the year that the Oriolesmake a surprising surge to the playoffs and shock the baseball world, but it feels like that time is at least getting closer. Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez aren't far away from reaching the majors, and bats like Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle have already proven they can mash in the big leagues. Throw in a few more guys like Gunnar Henderson and DL Hall, and this team could be fun to watch in a few years.
The model's outlook of the AL Central is perhaps what differs from conventional wisdom the most in its projections. Picking the White Sox to run away with the division is certainly correct, but the rest of the standings feel a bit jumbled given recent history. However, there are reasons for why it turned out as it did.
Starting with the winners, there won't be many who will dispute that the White Sox should be the favorite to win the division. The offense is stacked with names like Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu. Even after losing Carlos Rodon, the rotation is still be one of the game's best with Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Dylan Cease at the front. And with Michael Kopech and Liam Hendriks at the backend of the bullpen, they could be a real weapon to end games in the playoffs.
The Tigersare in a position where it feels like they are on the verge of putting it all together at the big-league level. Last year, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal got a taste of the big leagues and showed promise, and will be expected to take it a step farther in 2022. Detroit is also expecting rookies Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene to make the jump to the majors and provide the offense with the jolt it lacked in 2021. The Tigers also signed a pair of top free agents in Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez to provide some more established threats to the team. If the rookies can play up to their projections and immediately become impact talents, this could be an underrated team in 2022.
Like the Tigers,the Royals are loaded with MLB-ready talent from Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto all expected to reach the big leagues at some point during the season to add to an offense that already includes Salvador Perez, Nicky Lopez and Whit Merrifield. Andrew Benintendi showed some bounceback potential in 2021, and Adalberto Mondesi still looks explosive when healthy. The rotation has the biggest question marks, but the signing of Zack Greinke to go along with Brady Singer, Brad Keller and Carlos Hernandez should be able to give the team quality innings.
From back-to-back division champions to the cellar, the Twins'tumble in 2021 came as a shock after looking like a dominant team in each of the prior two years. The model isn't too favorable on them jumping right back into contention in 2022. While the signing of Carlos Correa and the trade for Sonny Gray will help, the rest of the team has a lot of question marks, particularly after Berrios was traded midseason last year and Donaldson was traded in the offseason. If Byron Buxton is healthy, he's one of the games' brightest stars, but that continues to remain a big "if."
The Guardiansfeel like the biggest surprise in the division. While Cleveland missed the playoffs last year, they also have finished no lower than third in the AL Central since 2012. The reason for the model's lack of trust in them in 2022? Weak offense. The lineup dips after Jose Ramirez, and even with the powerful bat of Franmil Reyes, Cleveland lacks true support for its star third baseman. Calling up Gabriel Arias could help with that. The rotation remains the bright spot with Shane Bieber leading a staff that featured a breakout season from Cal Quantrill and solid campaigns from Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Cleveland might be trending the wrong direction compared to most teams, but finishing last still feels like a bit of a stretch.
There has been a lot going on in the AL West since the 2021 season came to an end, and the model expects the standings to turn out about as one might expect.
Someone is going to have to take the crown away fromthe Astrosbefore anyone, even the model, would consider picking against them. They've lost key names over the past several years from George Springer to Justin Verlander (for a season due to injury) and now, most recently, Correa. However, this is still a loaded team. Jose Altuve continues to hit, and the cast around around him continues to get younger. Kyle Tucker will now be seen as one of the offensive leaders, along with slugger Yordan Alvarez. If Alex Bregman bounces back to what he's capable of, this should remain one of the highest-scoring offenses. Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia are two bright young arms in the rotation, while Verlander looks to return to his Cy Young-winning ways since coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Everyone is just waiting forthe Angelsto finally live up to their potential. They have the best hitter of this generation in Mike Trout and the most talented player of all time in Shohei Ohtani, yet they continue to finish below .500. The problem is so often health, and that is the concern the model has for the Angels. It does not expect full seasons out of both Trout and Ohtani, who have not in their four years together each had seasons where they both appeared in at least 120 games. If this is the year, Los Angeles could be in for a rise, especially with promising young talents Jo Adell, Reid Detmers and Brandon Marsh expected to be regulars in 2022.
There is going to be some competition in Texas soon enough for the AL West crown.The Rangerswere the talk of the offseason before the lockout when they made two major splashy signings in bringing in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to produce maybe the best middle-infield combination in baseball. They also signed Jon Gray, who could be due for a breakout season now that he's no longer pitching in Coors Field. The model doesn't think the signings make Texas a full-fledged contender just yet, but it sees this as a major step in the right direction.
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The Marinerswere the feel-good story of 2021, when out of nowhere, they rose up to post a 90-win season and nearly reach the postseason. This year, no one will sleep on the Mariners. Seattle strengthened its young core of Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez by trading for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez from Cincinnati and signing reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. The model's concerns for Seattle stem from its uncertain pitching depth beyond Ray and Marco Gonzales and the risk of an underperforming infield, but make no mistake, the future is bright in Seattle.
It has been a discouraging offseason forAthletics'fans, who watched their two core Matts traded off to the Blue Jays (Chapman) and Braves (Olson), and standout arms Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt traded to the Padres and Mets, respectively. The team has pieces that will help it win games, with Frankie Montas at the front of that rotation and top prospect Cristian Pache immediately slotting into the outfield with Ramon Laureano. But this will be a season for fans to count on young talent gaining experience to help the next reloaded Oakland team.
The reigning World Series winners emerge as the favorites to win their division, with New York and Philadelphia appearing as strong contenders for wild cards. The injury to Jacob deGrom is a major blow to the Mets' chances of winning the division, but if he's healthy once he comes back from his shoulder injury, New York would look like one of the best teams in the NL.
There is some volatility in our projections for theBraves, who look like the favorite to win the NL East but finish as low as third place in the division standings. But it's easy to see them beat those projections. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be back before too long and joins a lineup that still features Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Eddie Rosario. While Atlanta lost longtime franchise fixture Freddie Freeman, it replaced him with Matt Olson from the A's, who should be able to more than match the power output of the former MVP. The rotation might be even better in 2022 with the return of Mike Soroka to join Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton and Huascar Ynoa. The bullpen, which was already one of the best last year, improved with the signing of Kenley Jansen to join Will Smith, Tyler Matzek and AJ Minter.
There was a point in the 2021 season when it felt the Mets were going to run away with the division. But that quickly changed, and the result was a disappointing 77-85 season. That doesn't mean anyone should sleep on New York. With the signing of Max Scherzer and the acquisition of Bassitt, the Mets' 1-2-3 punch, when healthy, is now deGrom, Scherzer and Bassitt, and that's before getting to Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco. The offense added Starling Marte and Mark Canha to a lineup that was already strong with Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso in the infield and Brandon Nimmo in the outfield. The introduction of the DH to the NL should help Dominic Smith and Robinson Cano produce at a higher rate as well. Edwin Diaz was a dominant closer in 2021, and figures again to be among the best relievers in 2022.
The Phillieswere one of several teams competing near the end of the season for a wild card spot before the Cardinals went on their wild winning streak to take away that final spot. This offseason, they're doing their part to make sure they don't miss the wild card this time. A lineup that already featured the reigning MVP in Bryce Harper added the dynamic bat of Nick Castellanos and left-handed slugger Kyle Schwarber. Add them together with JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and Jean Segura, and this is a deep lineup capable of doing plenty of damage. The top of the rotation remains dominant with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and the biggest weakness the bullpen was improved with the signings of Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia and Corey Knebel.
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The moves bythe Marlinsmight not have been as splashy as the Mets or Phillies, but don't sleep on the additions they made this offseason. Bringing in Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler adds some thump to the outfield in an outfield that has been inconsistent in recent years. The team will also get another look at breakout star Jazz Chisholm in his second year of action. But what the model really likes is the rotation. Trevor Rogers nearly won Rookie of the Year, and Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez each had ERAs south of 3.20. Jesus Luzardo wasn't sharp in his Miami debut, but he's shown off his electric skillset and sky-high potential in Spring Training and will likely be a popular breakout pick.
This year is going to be a bit of a mixed bag forthe Nationals.They still have Juan Soto, who continues to receive Ted Williams' comparisons, but the rest of the team is a bit unknown. But much of the rest of the lineup is unproven. Carter Kieboom has been hyped for some time, and will finally be given a full opportunity once he returns from his forearm injury. Victor Robles still flashes big potential, but has yet to make everything click. The two big prospects in the Trea Turner/Scherzer trade, Josiah Gray will slot into the rotation and Keibert Ruiz should become the everyday catcher. The production this season will help set the stage for the next competitive Nationals' team.
The NL Central has not had a team repeat as division winner since the Cubs repeated in first place in 2016 and 2017. The model does not expect the Brewers will emerge back on top in 2022.
Instead, the model likes the chances ofthe Cardinalsto win the NL Central. This team is largely the same one that went on a 17-game winning streak at the end of the season to blaze past the Reds, Phillies and Padres to capture the second wild-card and sneak into the playoffs. The speedy outfield of Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson returns as the best defensive unit in baseball, and they're each expected to improve offensively. The slugging corner infielders of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado make up a powerful middle-of-the-order tandem, and Tommy Edman should help at the top of the lineup. The model really likes the rotation with Steven Matz joining Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty, who could miss some time with a shoulder injury.
There wasn't a better trio of starting pitchers in baseball last year than those onthe Brewers.Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young with a sterling 2.43 ERA, and he was joined in the sub-3.00 ERA club by Brandon Woodruff (2.56) and Freddy Peralta (2.81). Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser help round out a rotation that has a case for the MLB's best, in front of a bullpen that has some star power with Josh Hader and Devin Williams. The reason the model likes the Cardinals over Milwaukee comes from the lack of trust in the Brewers' lineup, but if Willy Adames can repeat and Christian Yelich can bounce back somewhere closer to his 2019 levels, it could have just enough to support Milwaukee's tremendous pitching staff.
The Cubsare engaging in a rebuild/reload to try and keep the team competition, while also building up its young core again. Signing Seiya Suzuki, one of Japan's biggest sluggers over the past six seasons, is a big addition as he'll likely slot right into the middle of the lineup. Nick Madrigal and Nico Hoerner are a promising young middle-infield combo, who should be big parts of the team's future. Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel each had solid debut seasons in 2021, and return as established starters with Ian Happ and Willson Contreras. The rotation looks well-rounded with three experienced starters at the top in Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Wade Miley.
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For anyone followingthe Reds, this has been a puzzling offseason. They didn't re-sign Miley and traded away franchise icons Winker and Suarez in a salary dump before signing Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and trading for Mike Minor. There is potential in this team to over-perform its projections. Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson shined in their rookie seasons, and are expected to continue to improve, and a healthy Nick Senzel could help him live up to his top prospect billing. Even after trading Gray, the rotation looks decent with Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle leading a young rotation that will feature flame-thrower Hunter Greene and control specialist Nick Lodolo. Joey Votto continues to produce at a star talent, but heading into his age 38 campaign, the model expects some regression to take a toll.
The Piratesremain fully in rebuild mode, but the young talent in the system is starting to reach the big leagues. Bryan Reynolds was a highlight for the team in 2021 as he earned an All-Star nod, and Ke'Bryan Hayes showed potential to be the next face of the franchise. Before long, Hayes will soon be joined on the left side of the infield by towering shortstop Oneil Cruz. Pittsburgh is waiting for the Mitch Keller breakout to happen this spring, he's shown glimpses that it could be on the way as the rotation starts to weave in younger arms like Bryse Wilson and Roansy Contreras.
The NL West was incredibly loaded in 2021, with the Giants finishing with the best record in baseball and the Dodgers owning the second-best record in baseball. Heading into 2022, this division figures to be just as thrilling as the Padres continue to establish themselves as a threat in the league.
The breakout season by the Giants mixed up the run of Dodgers' dominance, but the model expects Los Angeles to reclaim its crown in 2022. The deepest lineup in baseball got deeper when it signed Freddie Freeman to help offset the loss of Seager. But even with Seager gone, Turner shifted from second to shortstop and Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor will occupy second base. The versatile Max Muncy will hit anywhere he's playing, and Justin Turner has shown no signs of aging as he heads into his age 36 season. Mookie Betts felt quiet in 2021, but he's still one of baseball's best at the dish. The biggest question mark for Los Angeles is undoubtedly in its rotation, where Walker Buehler will be the unquestioned ace after Scherzer left. Clayton Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy, but has been dominant when on the mound. The bullpen lost Jansen, but added Craig Kimbrel to go along with Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol.
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The key tothe Giants'success in 2021 was a standout rotation. They've got that again in 2022. Even after Gausman walked in free agency, San Francisco still returns Logan Webb, who is coming off a fantastic postseason, and bring back Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. They also made big splashes by signing Rodon, Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd, who will only make this rotation stronger. The retirement of Buster Posey will usher in the Joey Bart era behind the plate. Three key contributors in the lineup Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski are 30 or older, and while they aren't getting younger, their bats certainly did not appear any slower in 2021. The model expects some regression, but the pitching will keep this as one of the best teams in baseball.
Whenthe Padresmade the playoffs in the abbreviated 2020 season, many expected they'd take that next step in 2021 and be a true World Series contender. Instead, they missed the playoffs. But in this new season, expectations are once again high for them. Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the brightest stars when he's healthy and Manny Machado gives him powerful protection in the lineup. The rotation will get a boost from the return of Mike Clevinger and the trade acquisition of Manaea. They will join Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. The model isn't as bullish on San Diego as others due to concerns over Tatis' ability to play a full season and the depth in the lineup, but it's easy to see this being the magical year for which many have been waiting.
Just when everyone thoughtthe Rockiesmight be headed toward a rebuild, they go out and make a big splash by signing Kris Bryant. Everyone wants to see his light-tower power in the thin air of Coors Field, just as CJ Cron in his first year in Colorado. Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon showed they can make a promising tandem fans of the franchise can build around. The loss of Gray takes away one arm that found success pitching in Colorado, but German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela continued to prove last season that they've figured it out. The Rockies don't figure to be in the mix for the playoffs in 2022, but that lineup could be fun to watch.
The Diamondbacksfinished tied with Baltimore for the worst record in baseball in 2021, but like the Orioles, they are starting to see the future of the franchise. Alek Thomas should make his debut at some point in 2022 to join fellow young bats like Ketel Marte, Daulton Varsho and Carson Kelly. Arizona also has to be relieved the DH is now in the league so it can give young slugger Seth Beer a way to consistently fit in the lineup. Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver look like they could front Arizona's rotation at some point, but for now, those two spots belong to the more experienced Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner.
The AL playoff picture will likely not come as a surprise. The White Sox and Astros were picked to reach the top two spots in the American League more than any other team, while the top four AL East teams were the most likely in the simulations to also reach the playoffs. The White Sox, who play in one of the weaker divisions, are the favorite to come away with the No. 1 overall spot in the AL.
The odds of winning the pennant tell the story of just how locked down the field sees the 2022 playoff picture. The only six teams with greater than a 5 percent chance of reaching the World Series are the four leaders in the AL East and the White Sox and Astros. Toronto has the best odds of winning the pennant at 16.9 percent, while the White Sox and Astros trail narrowly behind at 15.2 and 13.9 percent, respectively.
The East looks like a potential power in the National League, as well as the American League. The model narrowly projects there to be three teams in the NL East reach the playoffs, with the Mets and Phillies earning wild cards to join the division-winning Padres.
But the top two teams in the NL are the same as last year's: the Dodgers and Giants. The model likes the Dodgers to win the pennant and finish with the best record in baseball, while the Giants are the second-most likely team to win the pennant, barely edging out the Braves, who are likely to earn the second bye by virtue of winning their division with the second-best record among division winners.
Everyone wants to know who will win the World Series, and according to the model, the answer is Dodgers are the most likely champion. They are picked as a slight favorite to win the Commissioner's Trophy, just edging out the Blue Jays.
The model is also high on the pitching of the Giants, giving San Francisco a major edge going into the postseason even as a wild-card team.
Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series. The model indicates that in a World Series against the NL, which is loaded with teams that boast top-line pitching staffs, Tampa Bay's staff is more likely to hold up in a series.
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MLB predictions 2022: Final standings, playoff projections, World Series odds for every team - Sporting News