Archive for the ‘Afghanistan’ Category

How to Protect the Hope for Girls’ Education in Afghanistan – Council on Foreign Relations

Since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan six months ago, the educational dreams of millions of girls have been dashed. In late March, the group reneged on its promise to allow Afghan girls to attend secondary school. Although it has allowed some women and girls to return to the classroom, the Taliban has begun retooling the curriculum to prioritize religious studies and imposed harsh restrictions on how female students must dress, travel, and even talk on the phone.

If history is any guide, the Taliban will continue using Afghan girls education as a bargaining chip on political matters such as international recognition, financial sanctions, and aid. Nevertheless, the United States and its partners can still assist Afghan women, young people, and ethnic minorities who, in the face of Taliban intransigence, still seek an education. Today, many Afghans are turning to advanced technology, including satellite internet and virtual private networks, not only to maintain access to education but also to secure privacy where the Taliban forbid women and girls to study. While limited, virtual school for select Afghan university students in public institutions and local organizations are still operating against the odds.

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Afghanistans future stability will depend on its ability to reconcile the priorities of the many competing factions and interests within the country. The United States, European Union, and other regional powers should request UNESCO or UNICEF to appoint a United Nations Goodwill Ambassador charged with implementing a steadfast name-and-shame policy aimed at the Taliban to promote peace through education, even where Russia, China, and Iran stay silent. The UN Ambassador should establish a multilateral forum that improves coordination, collaboration, and cooperation among regional powers to invite up-and-coming Afghan teachers and studentswhether they remain in Afghanistan or are residing abroadto live and study conflict resolution at foreign embassies, diplomatic institutes, and universities in South Asia and beyond.

The Role of the Haqqanis in the Taliban's Education Policy

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The Talibans war on womens education is reminiscent of its reign in the 1990s, when the group imposed extreme teachings by force. It largely confined women to their homes, with a fortunate minority of girls able to attend underground schools. Now, the drive to restrict womens education is led by the Haqqani network, a faction of the Taliban more ideologically strident and violent than any that existed in the 1990s. For years, the Haqqanis have cultivated ties to al-Qaeda and to some elements of the Islamic States Afghanistan affiliate, known as the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), even facilitating some of ISIS-Ks terrorist attacks in the Afghan capital, including recent activity against Kabul University, a maternity ward, and a girls school.

The Haqqanis, designated by both the United States and United Nations as terrorists, have emerged as the dominant force in the Taliban government. The groups leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani, heads the powerful Interior Ministry, where he wields control over the nations domestic intelligence and military apparatus. A member of Sirajuddins network, Abdul Baqi Haqqani, acting Minister of Higher Education, where he is reorganizing Afghanistans education system around a strict interpretation of sharia law, imposing curriculum changes, segregating genders in schools, and imposing stringent restrictions on dress and conduct for girls and women.

In addition to controlling key state institutions, the Haqqanis control a vast international business empire, licit and illicit, and have long enjoyed the backing of other states in the region that view them as a strategic asset. In contrast to the Taliban Political Commission in Doha, the Haqqani-dominated Taliban Military Commission had grown less dependent on Western aid in recent decades and is therefore relatively less susceptible to Western leverage on matters of security, human rights, and education. They also remain at the forefront of orchestrating campaigns to kill former Afghan government officials and civilians, resulting in the flight of judges, journalists, teachers, and other leaders on whom Afghanistans emergent civil society depends.

The vast majority of Afghan teenage girls have already lost a year of education, Heather Barr, associate womens rights director at Human Rights Watch, stated in an interview with this author in February, 2022.

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How the United States Can Help

Although the Talibans political commission could reform its education policies to gain international legitimacy or aid, it will likely not overrule Sirajuddin Haqqani where he maintains a dissenting opinion. Even if the Taliban Military Commission remains ensconced in the government, there are other ways in which the United Nations, major and regional powers, and international technology organizations can empower women and girls to make their own choices about ensuring equal rights and education, and live the highest, fullest version of their lives.

First, the United States, European Union, and other regional powers should call on UNESCO and UNICEF to appoint a United Nations Goodwill Ambassador to lead a renewed push for promoting peace through education, while executing an international name-and-shame policy highlight the Talibans failed promise to support Afghan girls return to school. The UN Ambassador should facilitate multilateral coordination for regional powers to invite up-and-coming Afghan teachers and studentswhether they remain in Afghanistan or are residing abroadto live and study conflict resolution at foreign embassies, diplomatic institutes, and universities in South Asia and beyond. An emphasis on peace education can help prepare Afghans for next-generation leadership on which any fragile interfaith dialogue, nonviolent dispute resolution, and advanced negotiation will depend. Even in minimal form, such a peace-through-education residency program would create a pipeline of leaders skilled at navigating ideological, political, and cultural differencesprecisely the skills Afghanistans future leaders will need if they are to create a more stable and secure future order. At least half of the international scholarship recipients should be women who have finished their high school or university education, in order to provide a tangible incentive for Afghan women to persevere through secondary school.

In addition, the Ambassador should facilitate a multilateral consultation mechanism that brings together female education leaders and international technology companies to map the virtual school landscape and improve access to online classroom platforms, such as computer assisted instruction and massive open and free courses in Afghan languages based on geopolitical exigency. Information blockades are likely inevitable in Afghanistan in the future, particularly as China has been aggressively trying to sell or gift its advanced Great Firewall Internet filtering and monitoring software to countries in the region. When designed properly, enhanced access to virtual private networks and encrypted online classrooms can help Afghans evade such firewalls and circumvent the Talibans extreme ideology, values, and lawsor simply gain access to school.

By taking these actions to support education of all Afghans, the United States and its allies can promote the aspirations of such next-generation leaders. Fereshteh Forough, who organizes virtual classrooms for women and girls, explains the potential impact of such programs: Digital citizens can surpass the ideological bent geographical boundaries, preserving womens rights in the struggle for freedom and security. Gaining such liberation today is possible almost only through education technology, for it keeps our identity private and enables us to connect with the global economy. Virtual classrooms give us hope, for they make our simple goal, to study, a reality, even as the Taliban aim to take away the basic human rights we have fought so hard to gain.

Dr. Melissa L. Skorka is a Senior Fellow at the University of Oxfords Changing Character of War Centre. She served as a Senior Adviser to the former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Joseph F. Dunford in the Haqqani Fusion Cell and the International Security Assistance Force from 2011 to 2014.

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How to Protect the Hope for Girls' Education in Afghanistan - Council on Foreign Relations

Milley concedes Afghanistan withdrawal may have influenced Putin’s Ukraine move – Washington Examiner

Americas top military officer conceded this week it is possible the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan contributed to Russia's decision to invade Ukraine an argument Republicans have made for weeks.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley made the comments during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Thursday. Gen. Tod Wolters, the head of U.S. European Command, said last week that Vladimir Putin may have been attempting to take advantage of potential cracks in NATO resulting from post-Afghanistan conditions.

When pressed by Sen. Marsha Blackburn, a Tennessee Republican, on the Afghanistan withdrawal and whether it played a part in Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, Milley replied: From the intelligence Ive read, its not clear. I think it certainly is possible, but I also know that Putin had aims on Ukraine long before the end of the war in Afghanistan.

Blackburn cut him off: I think we all know that. So he saw his opening, right?

Well, the forces were building up they began to build up their force in September, October, Milley replied. So I think in order to do that, they wouldve had to have the plans and approval long before September, October.

The Taliban rapidly took over following a chaotic U.S. military withdrawal last year, and an August suicide bombing at the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, by the Islamic State killed 13 U.S. service members during evacuation efforts at the airport, with the Taliban providing security outside. Republicans have repeatedly connected the disastrous withdrawal to the current situation in Ukraine.

Russian forces engaged in two major force buildups on the Ukrainian border in 2021 first in the spring of 2021 and then in the fall in the months after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. The second buildup led to the invasion.

INTEL OFFICIAL WHO SIGNED HUNTER BIDEN LETTER PICKED FOR AFGHAN WAR COMMISSION

Milley reportedly told Congress behind closed doors in early February that Kyiv could be conquered by Russia within 72 hours of a full-scale invasion.

In comparison, both Milley and President Joe Biden, as well as the rest of the administration, appeared to overestimate the strength and the willpower of the Afghan army ahead of the Taliban's takeover.

Wolters, the supreme allied commander for Europe, testified last month in front of the House Armed Services Committee, with Rep. Jim Banks, an Indiana Republican, asking why Putin decided to invade on Feb. 24 rather than some other time since 2014.

I think he felt like he had the popular support of the citizens of Russia, Wolters said. I also felt like he was attempting to take advantage of fissures that could have appeared in NATO as a result of the post-Afghanistan environment. And I also think that it has to do with his age and his efficacy.

The general said: All those combined together put him in a position to where he elected to go at this time, but the overriding variable in my view is the fact that he believes that he has popular support with his citizens.

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The Russians waited until just a few days after the Beijing Olympics finished to attack Ukraine.

On the day of Putin's invasion, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said: I think the precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August was a signal, to Putin and maybe to Chinese President Xi as well, that America was in retreat, that America could not be depended upon, and was an invitation to the autocrats of the world that maybe this was a good time to make a move."

The invasion of Ukraine came after weeks of warnings by the U.S. intelligence community that Putin was likely to invade. Biden indicated in January he believed a Russian victory in Ukraine would essentially be certain.

Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier admitted last month that he had botched the assessment of Ukraines will to fight, saying: My view was that, based on a variety of factors, that the Ukrainians were not as ready as I thought they should be. Therefore, I questioned their will to fight. That was a bad assessment on my part because they have fought bravely and honorably.

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Milley concedes Afghanistan withdrawal may have influenced Putin's Ukraine move - Washington Examiner

Despite Fighting in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the Stinger’s Days Are Numbered – The National Interest Online

The U.S. Army would like to find a replacement for its Cold War-era FIM-92 Stinger air defense system, the iconic man-portable anti-aircraft system that the United States exported around the world. Stingers were used against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan to significant effect in the 1980s, as well as in other parts of the world.

The Department of the Army put out an official Request for Information (RFI) that explained why the Stinger is growing obsolete and what the Army would like to see in a replacement.

There are multiple requirements for the new system, and the Army listed several of the qualities it is seeking in its request.

The system must be capable of defeating Rotary Wing (RW) aircraft, Group 2-3 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), and Fixed Wing (FW) ground attack aircraft with capabilities equal to or greater than the current Stinger missile (with Proximity Fuse capability), the Army explained.

Furthermore, the new system should be compatible with Stinger Vehicle Universal Launcher (SVUL), which is a component of M-SHORAD Inc. 1, and also be Soldier portable All-Up-Round, or man-portable.

Finally, the system should offer improved target acquisition with increased lethality and ranges over current capability.

Old (and Diminishing) Stockpiles

The United States has maintained the weapon since the early 1980s but existing stockpiles of the Stinger missile system are shrinking. This trend has been exacerbated by large Stinger shipments to Ukraine to aid the country in its fight against Russia.

The Stinger- Reprogrammable Microprocessor (RMP) will become obsolete in fiscal year (FY) 2023 and Stinger Block I is undergoing a service life extension to extend its end of useful life, the RFI explained, adding that the current Stinger inventory is in decline.

Advances in seeker systems, as well as warheads and other rocket technology, could allow for a design that is dimensionally identical to the FIM-92 Stinger missile but offers greater lethality. Alternatively, an entirely new design could offer significant modernized improvements.

Either way, the FIM-92 Stingers days are numbered. The Army would like to conduct a technology demonstration in FY24 consisting of all digital simulation, hardware-in-the-loop, and/or live fire demonstration, and the new system must be capable of entering production no later than FY27 using production-line processes after the completion of design, development, and test.

That timeline may seem far outbut the Army would like to start testing Stinger-replacement prototypes as soon as next year.

Caleb Larson is a multimedia journalist and defense writer with the National Interest. A graduate of UCLA, he also holds a Master of Public Policy and lives in Berlin. He covers the intersection of conflict, security, and technology, focusing on American foreign policy, European security, and German society for both print and radio. Follow him on Twitter @calebmlarson

Image: U.S. Army/Flickr.

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Despite Fighting in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the Stinger's Days Are Numbered - The National Interest Online

Jordan: It Would Be Nice if Equipment We Left in …

On Fridays broadcast of the Fox News Channels Hannity, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) stated that poor decisions in the past by the Biden administration have put us in a bad spot in the crisis in Ukraine and remarked that it would be helpful if some of the weapons and equipment the U.S. left behind in Afghanistan was in Ukraine right now to better arm the Ukrainian people to repel the invasion by Russia.

Jordan said, [relevant remarks begin around 4:30] Sean, think about this: Dan just talked about weapons and what we need to get to the Ukrainians, it wouldve been nice if that $85 billion of weapons and equipment we left in Afghanistan, if that was in some of that was in Ukraine right now to help the Ukrainian people. Thatd be nice. Itd be nice if the State Department would be focused on real diplomacy versus when they sent out the email that said, oh, what pronoun do you want to use? And, oh, were going to have gender-neutral passports now, for goodness sake. So, thats the problem, bad decisions early on that put us in this terrible position. And the Ukrainian people feel it as we speak.

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Afghanistan Opium Survey 2021 – Cultivation and Production – Afghanistan – ReliefWeb

Key Findings

The production of opiates (opium, morphine, and heroin) is arguably Afghanistans largest illegal economic activity. The gross output of the Afghan illicit opiate economy was estimated to be $1.8-$2.7 billion in 2021. The total value of opiates, including domestic consumption and exports, stood at between 9 to 14 per cent of Afghanistans GDP, exceeding the value of its officially recorded licit exports of goods and services (estimated at 9 per cent of GDP in 2020).

At the end of the annual opium cultivation season in July 2021, the area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was estimated at 177,000 hectares. This was a 21 per cent decrease from 2020, representing a contraction of 47,000 hectares. Opium poppy cultivation has been increasing steadily over the past two decades, with an average increase of 4,000 hectares each year since systematic monitoring began in 1994 albeit with strong yearly fluctuations.Most of the 2021 opium poppy cultivation took place in the South-western region (79%), followed by the Western region (10%) and Northern region (6%). The Eastern and North-eastern regions accounted for 2% each of total cultivation. The Southern and Central regions together accounted for 0.8% of the total cultivation.

When compared to 2021, opium poppy cultivation decreased by some 18,100 hectares (-50%) in the Western region, by 13,200 hectares (-9%) in the South-western region, by 13,000 hectares (-57%) in the Northern region and by 3,200 hectares (-46%) in the North-eastern region.

Hilmand remained the countrys leading opium poppy cultivating province, followed by Kandahar, Farah, Uruzgan, Badghis, Faryab, Badakhshan, Nimroz and Balkh. The number of poppy-free provinces in 2021 decreased from 12 to 11. Samangan province lost its poppy-free status. The number of provinces affected by opium poppy cultivation increased from 22 to 23.

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Afghanistan Opium Survey 2021 - Cultivation and Production - Afghanistan - ReliefWeb