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DOHA, QatarNo, it wasnt worth it.

Thats how an advisor to Iraqs prime minister responded to journalist Peter Bergens oft-asked question about the American invasion of Iraq. Bergen posed it on stage at a conference of counterterrorism professionals here just a few days shy of the 20th anniversary of the invasions start, and Mohammed Al-Darraji answered bluntly.

The human and financial cost of the American destabilization of Iraq left behind a failed state. And in recent weeks, new alarms are sounding about the security threats simmering from Iraq to Afghanistan that can be traced back to that fateful decision so long ago.

In their own remembrances this week, Western news pages and airwaves are filled with heartrending stories recalling the horrors of that war, the folly of nation-building, the unpunished culpability of the American politicians who ordered it, the way it changed the military, the lasting trauma of its veterans, and the relentless grief for those who died. Our collective sentiment for the Iraq War remains overwhelmingly negative, angry, and unsettled.

But looking forward, the outlook for Iraq, the region, and the adjacent global war on terrorism is once again alarmingly bleak. In the past month, generals, journalists, officials, and activists have issued new warnings.

"Saddam [Hussein]'s brutal regime was replaced with a dysfunctional kleptocracy that can't deliver to its people," Simona Foltyn, an international journalist who lives in Baghdad, said at the Global Security Forum last week.

The annual counterterrorism-focused event included a panel on Iraq, and gloom about the past war and the future was palpable. Despite five successful elections and relatively peaceful power transfers since Saddam, Foltyn said Iraq's fragile post-war political system is more entrenched than most outsiders realize.

"There's almost an infinite level of fragmentation...that keeps destabilizing the country.," she said.

And should democratic governance fail, Muqtada al-Sadr is still there, waiting to take advantage.

Omar Muhammed, formerly known as the activist MosulEye, was less interested in reliving the invasion than highlighting Iraqs long list of current problems, like water, energy dependence, and thousands of missing or encamped people from the war and later ISIS occupation.

Every day there is a new problem or a new challenge in Iraq. Every day there is more and more poverty, and drinking water is as scarce as any other material. The U.S. invasion in 2003, he said, destabilized the entire social stability of the country.

Gen. Erik Kurilla knows this. The commanding general of U.S. Central Command has been shuttling to the region at a frenetic pace. He told the Senate last week that ISIS, now based in Syria, maintains the capability to conduct operations within the region and has the desire to strike outside of it.

Kurilla likes to talk about ISIS as three parts. First is the at-large organization, about which he says, I think we have contained ISIS, but the ideology is uncontained and unconstrained.

Second is the ISIS army in detention. There are over 10,000 ISIS detainees spread across 26 different prisons in northeast Syria, Kurilla said.

Last year, 1,000 made it over the outside wall in a breakout and 400 were killed in a 10-day fight with U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces.

Third is the camps for refugees and displaced persons, as at al-Hol, where 51,000 people live, over half of whom are children. They're at risk from radicalization. About 50 percent of the camp holds someespouses, some form of ideology according to the camp guards, the camp administrators, and the residents. And the other half are trying to escape ISIS. Half of the internally displaced persons there are from Iraq. The repatriation rate back to Iraq is so slow Kurilla estimates it will take another four years to move them all out.

It is all a direct result of the spiral of chaos caused by the U.S. invasion of Iraq. By now its well documented that the invasion sparked a series of violent extremist terrorist movements and a corrupt trail of divided governments. Al-Qaeda gave way to the Islamic State has mostly morphed from the Iraq-Syria border regions clear into Afghanistan. There, with no U.S. troop presence since the evacuation of 2021, the threat from ISIS-Khorasan is much worse.

It is my commanders' estimate that they can do an external operation against U.S. or Western interests abroad in under six months with little to no warning, which includes targets in Europe, Kurilla told the committee. He estimates ISIS-K could have the ability to strike the United States homeland in six months.

Since the U.S. withdrawal, the Islamic State in Afghanistan has tripled its attacks, increased propaganda, and is expanding to become a regional organization by "actively trying" to absorb minor groups. "IS-K is growing in strength."

There has been a pile of informed ink written about the Iraq Wars 20-year legacy, much of it hard to read. And there is good documentation of Iraqs difficulties today. But as the world (and the Pentagon) focuses on the pending Cold War with China and Russias hot war in Ukraine, we should also be reminded by this anniversary that there is simply more work ahead of us in Iraqand because of it.

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20 Years Later, Terrorism Simmers from Iraq to Afghanistan, Officials Warn - Defense One

It has been 20 months since the Taliban took over Kabul. Warfare has indeed ended but the lives of millions of Afghans have not improved. Afghanistan faces a severe humanitarian and human rights crises, which threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions.

While the Taliban has managed with the help of the UN to continue certain government functions, it has violated basic human and civil rights, clamped down on dissent, and rejected any form of national dialogue or political inclusivity.

The country is now ruled by a small circle of secluded leaders who are bent on rooting out dissent and erasing women from public life, even if it means deepening the international isolation of the country and further impoverishing the population. Without changes to this core of the system, there is a hard limit to how much governance can improve and how stable the country can get.

As the Taliban tries to gain international recognition, it is important to scrutinise its performance in government so far.

After waging war for two decades, the Taliban has been able to settle into the Afghan state unexpectedly well. The Afghan bureaucracy has been effectively incorporated into the reestablished Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA). With the exception of those working in the judiciary and the security sector, most lower and middle-ranking public servants have kept their jobs for now and are receiving their salaries, although at reduced rates.

Despite a chaotic transition, the World Bank, UN agencies and the IEA have worked out an arrangement to sustain the provision of health services on par with pre-August 2021 levels.

Under a deal with the IEA, the UN is also sending regular shipments of $40min cash in order to be able to operate in the country, given the restrictions on the Afghan banking sector. Most of this money goes to much-needed food assistance and the delivery of basic health services. It also indirectly stabilises the Afghan currency and prevents a complete economic collapse.

The education sector has taken a major hit after the Taliban banned girls from attending secondary school and university at public and private intuitions. That is causing incalculable harm to the Afghan youth and the future of the country.

However, the Taliban have been paying the salary of female schoolteachers for now. Remarkably, enrollment numbers in primary schools for both boys and girls haveincreasedin some areas of the country as security has improved.

The Taliban has alsomanaged to pay the countrys electricity import bill,ensuring power supply to most of the country, although regular blackouts continue. Its government is alsopushing forward with important water management projects undertaken before 2021, but resource constraints could hinder further progress.

After the Taliban takeover of Kabul, the country underwent a massive economic shock, with the gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking between 30 and 35 percent. Today the countrys economy is no longer in freefall due to the cessation of hostilities and the UN cash transfers.

However, the new economic equilibrium has left virtually the entire country in poverty and two-thirds of the population in need of international assistance to survive. A major beneficiary of international assistance, the urban-based middle class has been completely wiped out as the flow of foreign funding ceased.

The Taliban government has managed to collect some budgetrevenue, despite the economic contraction. The mining industry has helped boost both public revenue and exports.

The Talibans ministry of agriculture also collects religious levies ofushrandzakatfrom farmers, but it is unclear how much they amount to since this revenue category is not integrated into the reporting system of the Ministry of Finance. The Taliban also continues to tax the illegal drug industry, another unreported source of revenue.

While the Taliban leadership is eager to publicise revenue collections, itremains secretive about expenditures. Save for a mini-budget released soon after it resumed control, the Taliban has not been transparent about how it spends the money it collects. Some analystssuggest that the security sector and not social services may make up the bulk of the government budget.

In 2022, merchants surveyed by the World Bankreportedthat they were benefitting from lower levels of corruption and safer roads, but they were suffering from the sanctions, legal uncertainty, increased taxes, and an impoverished customer base. But recent decrees issued by the Talibans Amir al-Muminin, Hibatullah Akhunzada, that are meant to curb nepotism and bribery within the Taliban government may indicate increasing incidence of corruption.

According toILO reports, the Afghan job market has sharply contracted. Joblessness and reduced earnings have affected millions, primarily women, undermining the economic resilience of poor families. Restrictions on womens presence in public have hurt women-owned businesses and female workers, leaving home-based work as the only option for many women.

In the service sector, telecommunication is being instrumentalised for surveillance and censorship. While it might have avoided complete collapse, thebanking industry is still in a crisiscaused by sanctions and liquidity shortages. The Talibans Central Bank wants toreplace conventional banking with Islamic finance,but no clear timeline or guidelines have been developed yet.

Despite initial hopes for a different outcome and the formation of an inclusive government, the Taliban has effectively resurrected the Islamic Emirate, putting power firmly in the hands of the movements top religious figures.

The current administration still operates as a caretaker government with no timetable put forward for when a permanent government should be expected. This may be due to the fact that when this cabinet was formed, it caused serious internal tensions, as various factions within the Taliban competed for posts.

Meanwhile, Akhunzada, aided by a Kandahar-based cohort of religious scholars and a few trusted government officials, has increasinglyassertedhis power over the entire state, silencing and sidelining internal critics. The tensions between Kabul and Kandahar, as the two loci of the groups power, have become increasingly public.

Currently, there is no prospect of intra-Afghan dialogue or reconciliation beyond the Taliban offering protection to Afghan politicians associated with the previous regime who choose to return. While the Taliban have promised amnesty for all, the documented instances of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, and torture, often targeting ex-military officials, raise serious questions about the IEAs ability and willingness to enforce the amnesty uniformly.

Despite publicly conciliatory messages towards Afghanistans ethnic and religious minorities, the IEA has excluded them from power and failed to protect them from attacks by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).

Afghanistans independent media has collapsed, as the Taliban cracked down on free speech and foreign funding stopped. Public criticism isnot tolerated and is regularly punished.

Through a brutal and bloody campaign, the Taliban was largely able to suppress the armed resistance to its regime in the north, but tensions in the area remain. ISKPremains the most serious internalthreat targeting Taliban officials and religious minorities in Afghanistan, having carried out regular deadly attacks since August 2021.

The Taliban has suspended the prosecution departments, purged the judiciary, and abolished the independent bar association. Judges have been directly appointed by the group; female judges no longer run trials.

In court, the Hanafi School of Islamic law is applied to resolve disputes and punish any act that the judge may deem punishable. In public, the police and officials of the Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice summarily discipline citizens who are found to be in violation of the Talibans uncodified rules of proper behaviour.

No data on crime rates is available but anecdotal evidence suggests crime remains rampant. The Taliban has employed old methods to try to control the situation, reintroducing public hanging, flogging, and shaming. The religiously prescribed punishments of hudud are still rarely enforced; instead,courts punish various acts using their discretionary power (taizir) or authorising retaliation in kind under the Islamic doctrine ofqisas.

The Taliban hassuspendedthe laws of the country pending a complete review which is yet to be concluded. However, outside the judiciary, administrative laws are still used to keep the bureaucracy and revenue collection running.

The Taliban has also made the final judgments of courts pre-August 2021 reviewable upon challenge. In case of a challenge, the Supreme Courts highest fatwa-making body,dar ul-fatwa,acts as the court of revision for those decisions and could vacate an existing judgement.

The Taliban has not released a draft constitution. The administrative and legal regulations for courts adopted by the judiciary are drawn heavily from the Ottoman-era codification of the Hanafi School of Islamic law.

These legal, political and economic developments of the past 20 months point to the fact that the Taliban has managed to settle down into the seat of power in Kabul and take the reins of the state. Its government has managed to provide the general population with some basic services and economic stability, but those largely remain contingent on humanitarian assistance.

The model of governance the Taliban has established clearly concentrates power in the hands of the Amir al-Muminin and a small circle of trusted associates. That form of decision-making does not bode well for the countrys future. Unless there is a dramatic change in the core of this system, the Afghan state under Taliban rule will remain a poor, unstable, repressive theocracy.

The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeeras editorial stance.

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The Taliban in government: A grim new reality is settling in - Al Jazeera English

GENEVA (20 March 2023) UN experts* today said the ongoing unlawful denial of girls and young womens right to education in Afghanistan marks a global nadir in education, impacting an entire gender, a generation and the future of the country. They issue the following statement:

On 22 March 2023, schools should be reopening to girls across Afghanistan. Instead, it appears that for the second successive school year teenage girls will be banned from resuming their studies - making Afghanistan the only country in the world that forbids girls and young women from attending secondary school and places of higher education.

Education is an enabling right, which is crucial in and of itself and for realising other human rights such as the rights to work, to an adequate standard of living, to health, to participate in society and communities, to equality before the law and to fundamental freedoms. Denying this right to half the population effectively denies women and girls most other human rights.

The Taliban de facto authorities have no justification to deny the right to education, on any grounds, including religion or tradition. Being a state party to United Nations human rights treaties, notably the Convention on the Rights of the Child, the Convention on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), Afghanistan is obliged to respect, protect and fulfil the right to education without discrimination on the basis of gender or any other ground, irrespective of the authority in power.

The Taliban denied women and girls their right to education during their initial rule in the country between 1996 and 2001 and after seizing power for a second time in 2021, girls beyond puberty were again denied their right to education. Both times, the ban on girls education was introduced as a temporary measure. However, during the first period the ban was not lifted and unless the Taliban fulfills its promises to reopen secondary schools and universities immediately, it must be concluded that they have no intention of doing so.

There are no longer safe spaces for girls to meet, learn and just be children. If the ban on education continues, life outcomes for girls in particular, but also for all children, will continue on a negative trajectory and recovery will take decades. We cannot let this happen.

Combined with the dire economic and human rights situation in the country, the consequences are enormous. Since the ban on education for girls was imposed, rates of child marriage and child labour have increased, as have reports of children being medicated to overcome hunger, and even dying from malnutrition.

Even if the ban is reversed, we are concerned about the quality of education that will be provided for girls as well as boys. Disturbing reports from boys secondary schools highlight the replacement of qualified professional teachers with religious teachers, with significant changes in school curricula, and a limited provision of school subjects.

We salute the brave women, children and men for continuing to protest the ban on women and girls access to education and echo their calls for the immediate reversal of the ban. We condemn in the strongest terms, the denial of education to women and girls, and accordingly call on the Taliban de facto authorities to:

We call on the international community to:

ENDS

*The experts: Richard Bennett, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan; Farida Shaheed, Special Rapporteur on the right to education, Fionnuala N Aolin, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism, Dorothy Estrada Tanck (Chair), Ivana Radai (Vice-Chair), Elizabeth Broderick, Meskerem Geset Techane and Melissa Upreti, Working Group on discrimination against women and girls.

The Special Rapporteurs, Independent Experts and Working Groups are part of what is known as the Special Proceduresof the Human Rights Council. Special Procedures, the largest body of independent experts in the UN Human Rights system, is the general name of the Councils independent fact-finding and monitoring mechanisms that address either specific country situations or thematic issues in all parts of the world. Special Procedures experts work on a voluntary basis; they are not UN staff and do not receive a salary for their work. They are independent from any government or organization and serve in their individual capacity.

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Afghanistan: Quality education must be equally accessible to all, UN ... - OHCHR

United States Mission to the United NationsOffice of Press and Public DiplomacyFor Immediate ReleaseMarch 18, 2023

CSW Afghanistan Joint Statement

The following is a joint statement delivered by Albania on behalf of Afghanistan, Andorra, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, the Dominican Republic, Estonia, Ecuador, Egypt, Fiji, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Maldives, Malta, Mexico, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Norway, Oman, Palau, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, the Republic of Korea, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, the State of Palestine, Sweden, Switzerland, Timor Leste, Tunisia, Trkiye, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union.

In recognition of the ideals and principles and the Commission on the Status of Women, and recalling the commitments made during International Womens Day on March 8th, we wish to express our strong concerns about the weakening of respect for the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan who face extreme restrictions seen nowhere else in the world on the enjoyment of their rights, freedoms, and access to life-saving aid.

The Taliban continues to defy the will of the Afghan people, retracting their promises to the international community and implementing oppressive measures against women and girls.

We remain concerned that, despite international advocacy, the Taliban has not changed course after a full year of this repression if anything, theyve become more entrenched.

The Talibans decisions to ban women from universities, keep secondary schools closed to girls, and prevent Afghan women from working in NGOs, among other restrictions, are utterly indefensible. We note the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in its January 2023 meeting, emphasized the position of Islamic [law] on the need for womens education, work, and participation in public life.

The ban on girls and womens secondary and university education in Afghanistan deprives Afghan women and girls the enjoyment of the human right to education, increases risks of experiencing gender-based violence, including child, early, and forced marriage, and undermines Afghanistans stability, economic and social development, inclusive governance, and the realization and enjoyment of all human rights.

In addition, the order barring female employees of national and international NGOs from the workplace means that millions of Afghans will be unable to access life-saving humanitarian assistance and face even higher risk of violence, exploitation, and abuse.One-third of the humanitarian workforce in Afghanistan is female. They are now unable to work or reach women and other vulnerable people in need of basic support such as food, social services, and safe drinking water, with devastating consequences for their health and well-being.

These harmful edicts are causing irreparable damage to Afghanistans economy and society and the welfare of the people of Afghanistan.

We remain united in supporting the calls by the Afghan people for the full, equal, and meaningful participation of Afghan women, girls, and members of minority communities in Afghan society, and will continue to stand beside them.

###

By United States Mission to the United Nations | 18 March, 2023 | Topics: Highlights, Remarks and Highlights

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CSW Afghanistan Joint Statement - United States Mission to the United Nations

In a mansion in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e-Sharif that was recently profiled on YouTube, all the windows and doors are bulletproof a testament to the former residents security fears in a country where tens of thousands of people were killed each year in a war that took almost two decades to end.

In other videos, properties are shown having private jails, helipads, gardens with exotic plants, gyms, sauna and steam rooms, pools and other amenities that defy the description of Afghanistan as one of the worlds poorest countries, where most of the population cannot afford food.

Now vacant, these mini palaces belong to former warlords, government officials and lawmakers who fled the country before or immediately after the Taliban seized power in August 2021.

Despite their long-standing animosity toward the owners of these mansions, de facto Taliban authorities have not confiscated them so far, calling them private properties. Most are even protected against ransack and plunder, practices often seen during the many regime changes Afghanistan has experienced over the past few decades.

While the former Afghan elites are scattered around the world, most of them have regularly spoken against the Taliban, and some have even sought foreign assistance to wage another war against the so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

The United States, which fought the Taliban for two decades, has said it does not support armed opposition against the Taliban, but has also repeatedly demanded the formation of an inclusive government in Afghanistan.

Symbols of corruption

Videos of the mansions posted on YouTube and other social platforms receive large viewership and generate passionate comments about corruption and abuse in the upper ranks of the former Afghan government.

These places were built with corruption. These mansions were built by the money [stolen] from the poor, YouTube blogger Hamayon Afghan, who has produced videos from different parts of Afghanistan before and after the Talibans return to power, told VOA from Kabul.

For about 20 years, the United States and European donors invested heavily in building a democratic government, the rule of law and public accountability in Afghanistan, but the efforts largely failed because of endemic corruption.

Investigations by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) identified corruption at virtually every level of the Afghan state from salaries paid by international donors for Afghan soldiers and police who do not really exist to theft of U.S.-military-provided fuel on a massive scale.

Of the $146.68 billion the United States appropriated for the reconstruction of Afghanistan between 2002 and 2022, SIGAR reviewed the spending of $63 billion and discovered that a staggering $19 billion, 30%, was lost to waste, fraud and abuse, a spokesperson told VOA.

Other independent organizations have made similar assessments.

Corruption was central to the failure of the international effort to establish peace and security in Afghanistan, Ilham Mohamed, a regional adviser at corruption watchdog Transparency International, told VOA.

It undermined the legitimacy and capability of the Afghan government, hollowed out the Afghan military, and channeled resources to and strengthened popular support for the Taliban, Mohamed said.

Accountability

Speaking to a VOA television host, Atta Mohammad Noor, a former governor of Balkh province whose lavish lifestyle has been reported in the media, accused the Taliban of using several of his properties for various military and administrative purposes.

Only my residence has been vacated, Noor told the host via video link from the United Arab Emirates, adding that he would not return to Afghanistan to claim his properties.

The Taliban claim they have offered a blanket amnesty to all their former enemies, but the U.N. said some former Afghan military personnel have been killed, detained or tortured by Taliban gunmen over the past 18 months.

Taliban authorities have also indicated they would not prosecute former Afghan officials on charges of past corruption and abuse unless there are individual complainants seeking reparation and justice.

There is no anti-corruption entity in the Talibans interim administration, and it is unclear how the group investigates and handles corruption within its own ranks.

In the comments posted under the videos showing the houses of the former officials, many called for some sort of accountability.

Eight out of 10 Afghans we speak to demand accountability from previous officials and leaders, YouTuber Afghan said.

It is unclear if the former elites can sell their real estate in Afghanistan and take the funds abroad.

For some owners, potential risks from the Taliban outweigh the financial attraction of their properties.

I call on the Taliban to identify all my properties and either sell them or destroy them by bombs and mines. They do not have the value of the wing of a fly or a mosquito for me, Noor said.

When the VOA host asked him about his collection of expensive watches, Noor smiled and said, I have taken them with me.

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Videos of Empty Mansions in Afghanistan Prompt Calls for ... - Voice of America - VOA News