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A worrisome dimension of Al Qaedas strengthening of relations with the Taliban has been confirmed by the 18-member UN Monitoring Team. The report observes that not only the two outfits remain closely aligned but their relationship has grown deeper as a consequence of personal bonds of marriage and shared partnership in the struggle, now cemented through the second generational ties. Several top commanders of the Al Qaeda continue to be given shelter and protection by the Taliban.

Assessing the geographical reach of the Al Qaeda, the report points out that it is mainly in 15 districts in east, southern and southern-eastern, and are led by Al Qaedas Jabhat-al-Nusra wing under the direction of Sheikh Mahmood. It is also known by other names as well viz. the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, Al-Qaeda in Syria or Al-Qaeda in the Levant. This faction is a Salafist jihadist organization fighting against Syrian government forces in the Syrian Civil War with the aim to establish an Islamic state in the country.

Another disquieting aspect brought out by this report is that the above-mentioned faction is also maintaining close links with the Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). The report brings out that the core of the Al Qaeda remains in the bordering region of Afghanistan with Pakistan and works closely with AQIS. The AQIS has cadres mainly from Pakistan and Afghanistan with some from India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. It was earlier led by late Asim Umar and is now headed by Osama Mehmood. Asim Umar belonged to a respectable family in UP with his great grand-father being the District Magistrate during the colonial period.The group is reported to be organically linked with Taliban and it is difficult to separate them from the Taliban allies. The report gives three important pieces of evidence to indicate their nexus. First, it pointed out that the wife of the former leader of AQIS, Asim Umar, was among 5,000 Taliban prisoners freed by the Afghan Government in 2020 as part of the Doha agreement. Second, several Al Qaeda cadres were also reported to have been killed in the attacks launched by US led operations. Third, that the AQIS operates under the Taliban umbrella from Kandahar, Helmand and Nimruz Provinces.

The Taliban use Haqqanis faction to deal with Al Qaeda according to the report. Crucially the report mentions that the Taliban is increasing its grip over the Al Qaeda and is keeping a strict watch on the foreign terrorists in the outfit.

According to the report, the immediate objective of the Al Qaeda is to ensure safe heavens in Afghanistan under the new dispensation and therefore they are deliberately lying low as a part of strategic patience. The Al Qaeda does not wish to let others know about its linkages with the Taliban as that could jeopardise the diplomatic position of the Taliban under the Doha agreement. The report also points out the presence of Al Zawahiri in the region. Al Zawahiri in the past had often raised the Kashmir Issue. In 2019, in a speech, he brought to light Pakistans involvement in fuelling the cross-border terrorism in a message titled Dont forget Kashmir. He had exhorted the mujahideen to inflict unrelenting blows on the Indian Army and J&K government.

While Taliban have assured the US that it would not allow the Al Qaeda to operate from Afghanistan to attack the US targets, the report expresses it doubts if the Taliban could live up to their commitment. Given the close links and continued attacks on the Afghan National Forces, such a suspicion is bound to be there.Importantly, the report provides the larger picture of the role of ISIL. It says that the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K)s regional strategy is to coordinate the activities of all insurgent groups. It covers the Khorasan region of Central and South Asia (including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Central Asian Republics). Since June 2020, ISIL-K has had an ambitious new leader, Shahab al-Muhajir, who is not listed, and it remains active and dangerous. There is a distinct possibility that it can recruit disaffected Taliban and other militants to swell its ranks and pose a serious security challenge in the region.

A related aspect is the role of Pakistan in the continuation of violence. The Afghan National government leaders have often accused Pakistan for the continuation of bloodshed. Last month, the Afghan National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib in a public speech at Nangahar province at the border of Pakistan not only alleged the Pak role in the continuing attacks by the Taliban at the Afghan National Forces and other targets, but called Pakistan a brothel house. His remarks outraged leaders in Islamabad, who denounced him.

Pak PM Imran Khan is assiduously trying to remove the impression that Pak has any hand in it. Khan said Pakistan would suffer the most, after Afghanistan itself, if there was civil war and a refugee crisis, while pointing out that after the US has indicated its decision to withdraw its forces by Sept 11, it is not easy to get concessions from the Taliban. He stated: There is a lot of fear right now in Pakistan and I assure you that we are trying our level best that there is some sort of political settlement before the Americans leave. However, impression in Kabul remains unchanged over the Pak support to the Taliban.

Overall, the situation remains extremely menacing and volatile with the violence level increasing continuously. The report points that failure to arrive at an agreement to form a strong and stable government, could spur the growth of ISIL and Al Qaeda in different parts of the world. The report also observed the concerns of member states about the rising number of ISIL sympathisers in cyber space. This aspect requires a greater focus in view of systematic misuse of social media platforms by adversaries to incite the targets sections and recruit them for causing communal violence. For India, the growing nexus between the different outfits has a serious security implication.

Views expressed above are the author's own.

END OF ARTICLE

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UN report on growing Taliban-Al Qaeda-ISIS nexus in Afghanistan-Pakistan region: Implications - Economic Times

A UN Security Council monitoring team for Afghanistan has warned that the Taleban is well poised to make a grab for power in Kabul after the US completes its ongoing withdrawal in September.

Key Taleban leaders "oppose peace talks and favour a military solution", the report said.

The Taleban already has direct control over more than half of Afghanistan's district administrative centres, while contesting or controlling up to 70 per cent of territory outside urban areas, according to the report.

Moreover, the ultra-conservative Taleban, which calls itself the Islamic Emirate, and Al-Qaeda "remain closely aligned and show no indication of breaking ties".

There has been "no material change to this relationship, which has grown deeper as a consequence of personal bonds of marriage and shared partnership in struggle, now cemented through second-generational ties".

The Taleban swiftly rejected the report by the UN Security Council's Analytic Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team last Tuesday and made public the next day.

"Unfortunately, this report has been compiled on the basis of false information from enemy intelligence agencies," said Taleban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid.

"Representatives of the Islamic Emirate are also fully prepared for the inter-Afghan negotiating table, in order to make progress in the negotiations and implement all the clauses," he said.

The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 to oust the Taleban for sheltering Al-Qaeda, which carried out the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in America.

President Joe Biden last month set a deadline of Sept 1 for withdrawing an estimated 2,500 American troops, along with those of Nato partners. The withdrawal is well under way.

But the 2020 Doha Agreement, which paved the way for this transition, states: "A comprehensive and sustainable peace agreement will include guarantees to prevent the use of Afghan soil by any international terrorist groups or individuals against the security of the United States and its allies."

Analysts watching Afghanistan agree with the UN report.

"It's a little late," tweeted Ms Farahnaz Ispahani, senior fellow at the Religious Freedom Institute and public policy fellow at the Wilson Centre.

"The Taleban have not given up on anything," Dr Aparna Pande, research fellow and director of the Hudson Institute's Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia, told The Sunday Times. "They don't believe in power-sharing and have shown no intention of breaking ties with Al-Qaeda."

Just last month, the Taleban warned neighbours against allowing the US to use their territory or air space for military operations in Afghanistan. This came amid plans by the Pentagon to reposition some troops in the region to carry out counterterrorism missions in Afghanistan even after the US exit.

Mr Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, warned last Thursday that the Afghan government is "slowly but clearly losing ground to the Taleban".

The same day, the Taleban captured another district in central Uruzgan province, he noted.

Al-Qaeda's presence in Afghanistan has been confirmed by its own media wings; its Thabat newsletter has listed Al-Qaeda attacks since 2020 in 18 provinces, the United Nations report noted.

It said: "Al-Qaeda is resident in at least 15 Afghan provinces, primarily in the east, southern and south-eastern regions.

"Al-Qaeda, including Al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent, is reported to number several dozen to 500 persons. The group's leader, Aiman Muhammed Rabi al-Zawahiri, is believed to be located somewhere in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Previous reports of his death due to ill health have not been confirmed."

Al-Qaeda's near-term strategy has been assessed as maintaining its traditional safe haven in Afghanistan for its core leadership, and it maintains contact with the Taleban but has minimised overt communications in an effort to "lay low", it added.

"It will be important for the international community to monitor any sign of Afghanistan again becoming a destination for extremists with both regional and international agendas," the report warned.

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Taleban well-poised to take over in Afghanistan: Report - The Straits Times

The planned withdrawal of all U.S. and European troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11, 2021 will probably allow the Taliban to reconquer Afghanistan and impose a strict Islamist regime within the country, and establish terrorist organizations devoted to attacking the United States.

The Taliban followers are terrorists who are aligned with al-Qaida, and they are the same groups who have launched terrorist attacks in the world over the past 30 years, including the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States.

We need to keep adequate military forces in the region outside of Afghanistan to counter Taliban and al-Qaida moves in Afghanistan and to keep them off balance to prevent attacks against us.

Approximately 3,000 U.S. troops should be based on the Arabian peninsula in case they are needed as a quick reaction force. U.S. Special Forces in the region will probably have to be beefed up.

We need ground assault aircraft available in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Additionally, a squadron of B-52s should be based in the region.

A U.S. Navy carrier battle group and an amphibious assault force must be deployed in the region to provide the capabilities for air bombardment and missile attacks as necessary.

The Taliban are the enemy and must be treated as such.

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Dangerous withdrawal from Afghanistan | News, Sports, Jobs - The Express - Lock Haven Express

NATO defence ministers met virtually on Tuesday (1 June 2021) to discuss preparations for the upcoming NATO Summit and the way forward in Afghanistan. To prepare for the Summit, defence ministers addressed the NATO 2030 agenda to strengthen the Alliance. They focused on plans to reinforce Allied unity, including with a strengthened commitment to collective defence. This means rapid and full implementation of our military adaptation and continued improvements to our readiness, our capabilities and our defence investments, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

On Afghanistan, defence ministers agreed that continued support for the Afghan forces, government and people is the best way that NATO can contribute to the peace efforts. The Secretary General stressed that NATO will continue to provide advice and capacity-building support to the Afghan security institutions and funding for the Afghan security forces. We are also lookingat how we can provide military education and training outside Afghanistan, focused on Special Operations Forces, and we are looking at how to fund the provision of services enabling Allies and the international community to stay in Kabul, including support for the airport, he noted.

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NATO Defence Ministers address Afghanistan and the NATO 2030 agenda - NATO HQ

HappyTuesday and welcome toOvernightDefense.I'm Ellen Mitchell, and here's your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond.CLICK HERE to subscribe to the newsletter.

THE TOPLINE:The U.S. military isnearly at the halfway point in pulling its forces from Afghanistanonly a month into the effort, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Tuesday.

U.S. Central Commandestimates thatit has completed between 30 to 44 percent of the entire retrograde process, Kirby told reporters at the Pentagon.

He added thatthe Defense Department has shipped roughly 300 C-17 aircraft loads of material out of Afghanistan and has turnednearly 13,000 pieces of equipment over to the Defense Logistics Agency for destruction since the withdrawal began on May 1.

A fast timeline:President Bidenin Aprilordered all U.S. troops out of Afghanistan by Sept. 11, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks that sparked Americas longest conflict. Several reports, however, have indicated the withdrawal could be completed as soon as July.

Defense SecretaryLloyd Austinsaid Thursday that the withdrawal is slightly ahead of schedule, but he did not offer further details of the pace.

Hand it over: Washington has also officially handed over six facilities to the Afghan Ministry of Defense, according to a Centcom statement released earlier Tuesday.

Agence France-Presse reported earlier Tuesday that U.S. forces will be handing overtheir main Bagram Air Base to Afghan forces in roughly 20 days, though Kirby would not confirm the report.

Ive seen the press report on Bagram. Im obviously not going to get ahead of specific retrograde milestones, Kirby said.

He added that Bagram which was built by the Soviet Union in the 1980s andserves as the U.S. and NATO forces'biggest military facilityin Afghanistan will be turned over as part of the withdrawal, but he would not confirm the timing, citing operational security.

DEMS INTRODUCE BILL TO PROTECT TRANSGENDER MILITARY DEPENDENTS

A group of 39 House Democrats on Tuesday introduceda new billto ensure that transgender dependentof active duty service members have access to needed health care.

Led by Rep.Jimmy Panetta(D-Calif.), the Armed Forces Transgender Dependent Protection Act would prevent the Defense Department from stationing service members and their transgender dependents in states or countries that prohibit or otherwise restrict gender affirming healthcare and treatments for them.

Despite the progress that we have made in our fight for LGBTQ equality, service members and their transgender dependents continue to face hurdles that threaten their development, Panetta said in a statement announcing the bill.

Context:Republicans in more than 30 states across the country have passed or advanced legislation targeting transgender Americans, particularly students, in the past several months. Democrats and LGBT advocates have deemed such legislation as discriminatory and several lawsuits are expected to ensue.

Earlier on Tuesday, the first day of Pride Month, Florida, Gov.Ron DeSantis(R)signed a law that prohibits transgender student athletesfrom playing on teams that align with their gender identity.

A pushback:The Biden administration has taken steps to show support for LGBT rights.

President BidenJoe BidenRNC warns it will advise presidential candidates against future debates if panel doesn't make changes Washington Post issues correction on 2020 report on Tom Cotton, lab-leak theory Graham says Israel will request billion from US after Gaza war MOREin Januarysigned an executive order lifting the banon transgender service members implemented during the Trump administration.

An extra step:But the Democratic lawmakers want to make sure the Pentagon goes a step further and install protections for the dependents of service members.

Across America, Republican-led states have embarked on the discriminatory mission of legislatively outlawing medical treatment for trans Americans, House Judiciary Committee ChairmanJerry Nadler(D-N.Y.), a co-sponsor of the bill, said in a statement. Ensuring that transgender children and spouses of active duty service members can access medically necessary treatment is a question of dignity, fairness, and civil rights.

ARMY SOLDIERS MISTAKENLY RAID BULGARIAN OLIVE OIL FACTORY

U.S. soldiersaccidentally raided an olive oil factory in Bulgaria during a larger NATO exerciselast month, U.S. Army Europe and Africa revealed Tuesday.

During Exercise Swift Response 21 a drill across Estonia, Bulgaria and Romania meant to deter Russian military aggression soldiers assigned to the 173rd Airborne Brigade simulated seizing and securing the decommissioned Cheshnegirovo airfield in Bulgaria by entering and clearing bunkers and structures.

What went wrong: But during the course of the exercise on May 11, soldiers entered and cleared a building next to the airfield that they believed was part of the training area, but that was occupied by Bulgarian civilians operating a private business,according to an Army statement. No weapons were fired at any time during the interaction.

Apologies in order: Army officials sincerely apologize to the business and its employees, and said they are fully investigating the cause of this mistake.

The statement added that the Army would implement rigorous procedures to clearly define our training areas and prevent this type of incident in the future.

Caught on film:A video of the mistaken seizure wasposted to Twitterby Bulgarian journalist Dilyana Gaytandzhieva, who reported that the factory owner had filed a lawsuit after the mix up.

ICYMI

The Hill: Pentagon report clears use ofdrones made by top Chinese manufacturer

The Hill:Defense secretary knocks Cruz: Military will 'never be too soft'

The Hill:Russian military forming 20 new unitsto counter NATO

The Hill:Coast Guardsuspends search for 10 Cuban migrantswhose boat capsized

The Hill:Gillibrand says Schumer shouldbring military sexual assault billup for a vote

The Hill:US warshipfails to intercept ballistic missile testtarget

The New York Times: A siege, a supply run and a decent intoa decades-old battle

The Associated Press:As Russia tensions simmer,NATO conducts massive war games

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Overnight Defense: US nearing halfway point of Afghanistan withdrawal | Army soldiers mistakenly raid olive oil factory | TheHill - The Hill