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Veterans are understandably weary of American efforts in Afghanistan, but there are a few critical lessons we should keep in mind (Vets See Echoes of Vietnam in Afghanistan Withdrawal Plan, Page One, April 27).

We were at least as weary when we withdrew from Iraq in 2011, but the rise of Islamic State three years later and its ensuing wave of terrorist attacks showed that our departure had been too hasty. The U.S. was forced to send combat forces back into a much more complicated, hostile situation over a broader area. In the end, our departure cost us more than simply remaining would have. Although withdrawal from Afghanistan may be inevitable, we might yet avoid total failure. A little political will can go a long way.

None of this excuses the hasty decision for war with Iraq in 2003 or the frequently incomprehensible manner in which we operated in Iraq and Afghanistan. History will assign blame for those mistakes, but our task today is to avoid new ones. If we arent willing to use a modicum of blood and treasure to maintain an unpalatable but necessary effort in Afghanistan todayor at the very least to aid a friendly government under threatthere is a good chance we will spend far more in the future.

Ben Lowsen

Alexandria, Va.

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U.S. Vets Rate the Afghanistan Withdrawal - The Wall Street Journal

KABUL, Afghanistan The U.S. military has begun its complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, the top American commander there said Sunday, marking what amounts to the beginning of the end of the United States nearly 20-year-old war in the country.

I now have a set of orders, said Gen. Austin S. Miller, the head of the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan, to a news conference of Afghan journalists at the U.S. militarys headquarters in Kabul, the capital. We will conduct an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, and that means transitioning bases and equipment to the Afghan security forces.

General Millers remarks come almost two weeks after President Biden announced that all U.S. forces would be out of the country by Sept. 11, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks that propelled the United States into its long war in Afghanistan.

Mr. Bidens announcement was greeted with uncertainty in Afghanistan, as it prepares for a future without a U.S. and NATO military presence despite a Taliban insurgency that seems dead set on a military victory despite talks of peace.

The insurgent groups harsh version of Islamic law, which barred women from many jobs during its rule in the late 1990s and banned music and dance, among other arts, will probably return if the Taliban reassumes power either through force or if they are incorporated into the government.

Holding the line for now are the Afghan security forces, which have endured a particularly difficult winter. Taliban offensives in the south and repeated attacks in the north despite the cold weather have meant mounting casualties ahead of what could be a violent summer as U.S. and NATO forces withdraw. Though the Afghan military and police forces together are said to have around 300,000 personnel, the real number is suspected to be much lower.

I often get asked how are the security forces? Can the security forces do the work in our absence? General Miller said. And my message has always been the same: They must be ready.

General Miller added that certain equipment must be withdrawn from Afghanistan, but wherever possible the United States and international forces will leave behind matriel for the Afghan forces.

There are roughly 3,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan and around 7,000 NATO and allied forces. Those NATO forces will probably withdraw alongside the United States, as many countries in the coalition are dependent on American support.

Atop the international military forces in Afghanistan, there are also roughly 18,000 contractors in the country, almost all of whom will also depart. General Miller said that some of the contracts will have to be adjusted so that the Afghan security forces, which are heavily dependent on contractor assistance especially the Afghan Air Force will continue to be supported. The thousands of private contractors in Afghanistan are tasked with a range of jobs, including security, logistics and aircraft maintenance.

Under last years peace agreement with the Taliban, U.S. and international forces were supposed to withdraw from the country by May 1. Under the agreement the Taliban have refrained for the most part from attacking U.S. troops. But what remains unclear is if the insurgent group will attack the withdrawing forces following Mr. Bidens decision to set the final deadline later, in September.

We have the military means and capability to fully protect our force during retrograde, as well as support the Afghan security forces, General Miller said.

American troops are still spread out in a constellation of around a dozen bases, most of which contain small groups of Special Operations forces advising the Afghan military. To cover the withdrawal, the American military has committed a significant amount of air support, including positioning an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, in case the Taliban decide to attack.

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US Military Begins Final Withdrawal from Afghanistan - The New York Times

By Sept. 11, 2021, all U.S. forces must be out of Afghanistan. But that doesn't mean that the U.S. will be at the mercy of groups like ISIS,al-Qaida or the Taliban if they want to create problems and threaten U.S. interests,the commander of the U.S. Central Command said.

While the 3,500 troops currently in Afghanistan will leave that country by the end of the summer, some will remain in the region, Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie Jr. saidduring a hearing today before the House Armed Services Committee.

"I think some of the forces are going to remain in Central Command, because we are going to look at offshore, over-the-horizon options," he said.

Right now, McKenzie said, he's figuring out how the U.S. will be able to conduct counter-terrorism activities in the area without being in Afghanistan.

"I'm actually conducting detailed planning, by the direction of the secretary, to look at those options right now. I will report back to him by the end of the month with some alternatives," he said.

Broadly, McKenzie said, if a crisis arises in Afghanistan and the U.S. needs to go back in, three things will need to happen that the U.S. can still do though with more difficulty than it can do right now.

"You need to find the target, you need to fix the target and you need to be able to finish the target," he said. "So those three things all firstly require heavy intelligence support. And if you're out of the country and you don't have the ecosystem that we have there now, it will be harder to do that. It is not impossible to do that. It will just be harder to do it."

For intelligence assets in the region, he said, U.S. diplomats are working now to find new places to base them, he said.

"There are ways to get to the find and the fix part," he said. "The fix part is very important though, because if we're going to strike something, we're going to strike it in concert with the law of armed conflict and the American way of war."

It's the striking of a target if need be that's going to be an even bigger challenge than it is now, McKenzie told lawmakers.

"It's difficult to do that at range but it's not impossible to do that at range," he said.

The general said long-range precision fires, manned raids and manned aircraft are all possibilities for strike options, if need be. All are on the table, and all are doable though with increased risks and costs.

"There are problems with all three of those options, but there's also opportunities with all three of those options," he said. "I don't want to make light of it. I don't want to put on rose-colored glasses and say it's going to be easy to do. Though I can tell you that the U.S. military can do just about anything and we're examining this problem with all of our resources right now to find a way to do it in the most intelligent, risk-free manner that we can."

When forces do leave Afghanistan, McKenzie said, there's the risk that there could be attacks at that time. He said he's confident, however, that while such a redeployment is complex, U.S. forces will be safe.

With the Afghanistan withdrawal, he said, equipment will need to leave the country, installations will need to be turned over and people will need to leave.

McKenzie said discussions with Army Gen. Austin Miller, commander of the Resolute Support mission and U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, have left him assured that redeployment can be done safely.

"I'm confident that we will have the forces necessary to protect our forces should the Taliban decide to begin attacking us on [May 1] or any other date," he said.

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U.S. Plans to Keep Threats in Check Even After Afghanistan Withdrawal - Department of Defense

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) CIA Director William Burns made a recent unannounced visit to Kabul, a senior politician and a well-placed public figure told The Associated Press, as concerns mount about Afghanistans capability to fight terrorism once the U.S. has withdrawn its remaining troops by summer.

Separately, a senior former Afghan security official deeply familiar with the countrys counterterrorism program said two of six units trained and run by the CIA to track militants have already been transferred to Afghan control.

The three men spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss sensitive security issues with the media.

In Washington, the CIA declined to comment when asked about the directors schedule and the agencys role in Afghanistan.

In deciding this month on an unconditional troop pullout by Sept. 11, President Joe Biden had argued that a key objective of the U.S. invasion to prevent terror attacks on the U.S from Afghan soil has been met. The pullout deadline marks the 20th anniversary of the al-Qaida terror attacks on the U.S., which triggered the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.

However, senior U.S. officials have cautioned that the withdrawal poses risks.

Burns recently told the U.S. Congress that neither al-Qaida nor Islamic State extremists have the ability to stage attacks against the U.S. Still, when the time comes for the U.S. military to withdraw, the U.S. governments ability to collect and act on threats will diminish, thats simply a fact, he said.

Burns quietly visited Kabul last weekend, the politician and the public figure said. They would not say whom Burns met with, but said some of the discussions addressed Afghanistans preparedness after the U.S. pullout. Burns also reassured Afghan officials that the U.S. would continue to be engaged in counterterrorism efforts.

Yet concerns are mounting that Afghanistans security forces wont be able to halt a march by Taliban insurgents on government-held territory or battle terrorist groups without the help of U.S. and NATO soldiers. Already, the Taliban control or hold sway over half the country.

The former security official said he believes terrorism-fighting capabilities will be significantly reduced once the roughly 2,500 to 3,500 U.S. troops and 7,000 allied NATO soldiers leave.

The official said the CIA had been training and running Afghan special forces known as Counter Terrorism Pursuit Teams, or CTPT. The teams are located in the provinces of Kunar, Paktia, Kandahar, Kabul, Khost and Nangarhar. He said the plan is to gradually hand them over to the Afghan intelligence service, known as the National Directorate of Security. So far, the Kunar and Paktia units have been transferred to Afghan control, he said.

The CTPT teams are feared by many Afghans and have been implicated in extra-judicial killings of civilians. In 2019, the head of the Afghan intelligence service, Masoom Stanikzai, was forced to resign after one of these units was implicated in the summary execution of four brothers.

Earlier this year, in Afghanistans eastern Khost province, one of the teams was accused of gunning down civilians in a counterterrorism operation. The United Nations has also criticized the tactics of these units, previously blaming them for a rise in civilian casualties along with insurgent groups.

The former security official said that without the U.S. troops, Afghanistans technical intelligence gathering will suffer. Right now, some of the greatest successes in fighting terrorism and the narcotics trade have come from U.S. intelligence gathering, he said. Several months ago, U.S. intelligence uncovered dozens of methamphetamine laboratories producing drugs with a street value in the West of over $1 billion, the official added.

Meanwhile, both the U.S. and the Afghan government believe that the threat from al-Qaida and Afghanistans Islamic State affiliate has been substantially reduced.

Gen. Frank McKenzie, the top U.S. general for the Middle East, told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that both groups have been significantly degraded in Afghanistan because of U.S. military pressure in recent years.

However, the post-pullout situation will be challenging, he said. McKenzie said getting drones and other aircraft into Afghanistan to provide overhead surveillance or to conduct counterterrorism strikes will take considerably longer and will require far more aircraft.

He also said it will be extremely difficult but not impossible for the U.S. to find, track and take out terrorist threats in Afghanistan once all American troops are withdrawn.

Meanwhile, a Western diplomat in Afghanistan said the unexpected U.S. announcement of an unconditional withdrawal left many security questions unanswered such as what happens to NATOs surveillance equipment and the giant blimp that hovers over the capital. The blimp provides real-time intelligence and 24-hour surveillance.

David Barrett, a professor at Villanova University who specializes in the history of intelligence policy, said the troop pullout will reduce the amount of intelligence gathered by the military and ultimately provided to the CIA. But the U.S. can still monitor electronic communications and other signals with its advanced technology, and could intervene militarily if it assessed a threat to an American target, he said.

We have amazing capabilities for knowing whats happening on the ground, he said. If anyone, anywhere in Afghanistan decides they want to develop any ability to strike the U.S., they would be making a very big mistake.

____

Associated Press writer Nomaan Merchant in Washington contributed to this report.

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CIA head said to have made unannounced trip to Afghanistan - The Associated Press

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) The U.S. military has begun shipping equipment and winding down contracts with local service providers ahead of the May 1 start of the final phase of its military pullout from Afghanistan, a U.S. Defense Department official said Thursday.

The pullout under U.S. President Joe Biden marks the end of Americas longest war after a 20-year military engagement. Currently, some 2,500 U.S. soldiers and about 7,000 allied forces are still in Afghanistan.

In February last year, the U.S. military began closing its smaller bases. In mid-April, the Biden administration announced that the final phase of the withdrawal would begin May 1 and be completed before Sept. 11.

Since then, the military has been shipping equipment and winding down local contracts for services such as trash pickup and maintenance work, the U.S. official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with briefing regulations.

While preparations are under way, troops likely wont begin to depart for a few weeks, he said, adding that we wont see a coming down of the (troop) numbers until remaining bases close.

There have been indications that the pullout could be completed well before Sept. 11, which marks the 20th anniversary of the al-Qaida terror attack on the U.S. and the trigger for the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.

On Wednesday, Germanys Defense Ministry said discussions are underway among military planners with the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission in Kabul for a possible withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan as early as July 4.

In the short term, America will likely increase its troop presence in Afghanistan, the Pentagon said last Friday. The additional troops would be in Afghanistan over the coming weeks and months to help with what the herculean task of wrapping up 20 years of war.

While much of the equipment headed back to the U.S. will be shipped by air, the military will also use land routes through Pakistan and north through Central Asia, the Defense Department official said.

The U.S. equipment that is neither shipped back to America nor given to the Afghan National Security forces will be sold to contractors, who will, in turn, sell it in the local markets.

Youll most likely start seeing it eventually showing up in bazaars as scrap, said the official.

The Taliban, meanwhile, were non-committal when asked by the AP whether the insurgents would attack departing U.S. and NATO troops. Its too early for these issues, nothing can be said about the future, said Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem.

In a deal the Taliban signed last year with former President Donald Trump, the final U.S. withdrawal deadline was set as May 1. Under the agreement, the Taliban promised not to attack U.S. and NATO troops but they also later promised consequences if Washington defied the May 1 deadline.

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US troops in Afghanistan begin packing gear in pullout prep - Associated Press