Study highlights Democrats’ campaign hurdles in 2018 – OCRegister
The Buzz is the Registers weekly political news column.
Ardent opposition to President Donald Trump is motivating veteran and first-time activists in Orange Countys four Republican congressional districts, but unseating the incumbents remains an uphill road.
Three of those GOP members won reelection by more than 10 percentage points last year. And while polls show dissatisfaction with Congress as a whole, historic polling shows constituents view their own representatives far more favorably.
Hillary Clinton won all four districts, but a new report by the Public Policy Institute of California details how Democrats strongest demographic groups are also the least likely to vote in midterm general elections.
The population of eligible voters among Latinos and Asian Americans is growing faster in California and the county than elsewhere in the country while the overall voter registration rate is falling faster. In 2014 the last midterm election the states voter registration rate was about 5 percent less than the nations rate, according to the PPIC. Thats because Latinos and Asian Americans arent registering to vote at the rate of other eligible adults. The lack of registered Latino voters in the county could particularly hurt Democrats next year.
Meanwhile, the strongest age group for county Democrats is those 25 and younger. But those voters low turnout in midterm elections is the biggest reason the state slid from 70 percent turnout in the 1982 midterm general election to 42 percent in 2014, according to PPIC.
Orange County Democrats were watching the June 20 special election in Georgia because it was similar in some ways to the GOP districts in Orange County: Educated voters who usually favored Republicans but were wary of Trump (Trump won the district by just 1 percentage point). But the outcome was bad news for those Democrats, with Republican Karen Handel beating Democrat Jon Ossoff 52 percent to 48 percent.
Thats more than Trumps margin of victory and an indication that distaste of the president wasnt enough to carry the Democrat to victory.
If you know where to look, you can find bits of good polling news that reflect well on Trump.
Approval among Republicans remains strong at 85 percent, according to the most recent Gallup poll. Thats leagues beyond their approval of the GOP-controlled Congress, which is at a lowly 28 percent, according to Gallup.
And Republicans are far more optimistic about the future of the country since Trump took office, with 69 percent saying the country is going in the right direction, according to a just-released Morning Consult poll. Thats rocketed from 11 percent last July. Meanwhile, Democrats optimism for the country has dropped from 37 percent to 19 percent over the same period.
The problem is that less than half the country is Republican, especially when accounting for independents.
Trump took office with a historic low approval rating among all voters, 45 percent. And its been a slow drift downward since, with his latest rating at 39 percent, according to Gallup.
Within the party, theres a significant divide. When asked if the GOP generally cares about people like you, 72 percent of self-described conservatives said yes but just 49 percent of moderates thought so, according to the Morning Consult data.
The weakest demographic among Democrats is those ages 18 to 29, with 73 percent of that group saying the party cares about people like them. All other age groups are at 80 percent or higher. Overall, 80 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of Republicans said their party cares about people like them.
Measuring patriotism can be treacherous, but that didnt stop the approaching Independence Day from spurring WalletHub to rank the 50 states. That ranking is based on 13 factors divided into two categories: military engagement (a states number of military enlistees counted for 25 percent of their score) and civic engagement (the share of adults who voted last November accounted for 10 percent).
Virginia ranked first overall, Alaska ranked first in military engagement (and 36th in civic engagement) and Vermont ranked first in civic engagement (and 39th in military engagement).
CaliforniIa ranked 44th overall, 38th in military engagement and 42nd in civic engagement. It had the third lowest veterans per capita, but otherwise didnt crack the top five or bottom five in key categories.
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Study highlights Democrats' campaign hurdles in 2018 - OCRegister