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Jul. 10, 2017 at 10:31 AM

Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill doesnt yet have a high-quality opponent in her 2018 Senate race. Shes not the only Democrat lacking a serious GOP challenger.

Is the GOP going to fail to take advantage of one of the best Senate playing fields in a generation? Last week, the chance that Republicans will enlarge their Senate majority in 2018 took a hit when Republican Rep. Ann Wagner declared that she would not challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri. Wagner was supposed to be a top recruit, and some outlets had even said she would get in the race in July. Instead, she said she would run for re-election to the House. McCaskill remains without a high-profile challenger for now.

Even with President Trumps low approval rating, Republicans have been hoping to increase their Senate majority. Although Republicans control 52 of 100 seats in Congresss upper chamber, they hold just eight of the 33 seats up for re-election in 2018. Yet McCaskills story is not unique in the 2018 cycle. Its still early, but so far Republicans have generally struggled to recruit high-quality candidates for the 10 seats Democrats are defending in states Trump won in 2016 though theres still time.

In those 10 states, only three races (Michigan, Ohio and West Virginia) have what could be deemed high-quality Republican challengers (officials, for example, who have been elected to big-city mayorships or statewide or federal office). Obviously, what makes a good challenger is a bit of a judgment call, but traditionally challengers who have held higher elected office run stronger than those who have little or no political experience.

In states Trump won, highest elected office for a declared Republican candidate running against a Democratic senator up for re-election in 2018

*State Rep. Paul Curtman is expected to announce this week that he is forming an an exploratory committee.

SourceS: Federal Election Commission, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, The Green Papers

Floridas Bill Nelson, Indianas Joe Donnelly, North Dakotas Heidi Heitkamp and Wisconsins Tammy Baldwin so far dont have any challengers who have held a notable elected office. That may not last, but its not a good sign for Republicans at this point. Youd think that Heitkamp, especially, who won election by just a point in 2012 and is running in a state Trump won by 36 points, would have at least one high-profile opponent.

Democrats have been far more successful at recruiting, despite facing a tougher map. In the only 2018 Senate race taking place in a state that Trump lost and that has a Republican incumbent up for election, Nevada Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen has already declared that shes going to oppose Republican Sen. Dean Heller. Rosen may face a primary challenge from Democratic Rep. Dina Titus. In Texas, where Trump won by less than 10 points, Democratic Rep. Beto ORourke is taking on Sen. Ted Cruz. Even Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake, who so far has avoided any high-profile challengers, could potentially face Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton in a state Trump won by less than 5 points.

The fact that Democrats are enjoying more success in recruiting is a sign that the 2018 political environment favors Democrats. Elected officials usually dont like to get into races that they think theyll lose. And given that the Senate races are tilted toward Republicans already, it suggests that in the House, where every representative is up for election, Democrats will be on the offensive.

Although challenger quality can be overrated in determining election outcomes (i.e., a rising political tide can lift all boats), it has mattered in federal elections. In the House, we know that elected officials have had a much better success rate when it comes to knocking off incumbents than those with less experience. Even controlling for other factors, the FiveThirtyEight Senate election forecasting model, based off of past elections, gives the highest-end officeholders a net 6- to 7-point advantage versus those who have never held elected office.

Higher-end officeholders have a number of advantages over other types of Senate seekers. They tend to have better fundraising networks because theyve run for office before, which can make the difference in close races. They have higher statewide name identification, which can, at least initially, give them better poll numbers, which itself can lead to better fundraising. Finally, higher-end office seekers tend to have campaign experience and are less likely to make major boneheaded campaign mistakes or have skeletons in their closet.

Still, even if the GOPs poor recruitment continues, it is unlikely to cost Republicans control of the Senate in 2018. Democrats chances of picking up a net gain of at least three seats is probably only a little better than that of pulling an inside straight (about 1 in 10) given the Senate playing field. The most likely outcome ranges from a two-seat Democratic gain to a two-seat Republican gain. But such small differences could make a big difference in governing.

Lets say Republicans were to lose two Senate seats in 2018. That would give moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine a lot more power and could force Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to present more moderate pieces of legislation. If a Supreme Court justice decided to retire, a tighter Senate could also make it more likely that Trump would pick a moderate nominee. That could save Roe v. Wade, for example. Obviously, McConnell and Trump will have more power if Republicans slightly increase their majority.

Thats why its important to pay attention to whether better candidates join the fray over the next few months. Although Republicans have struggled so far, theres still time for top recruits to announce their candidacy. Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner didnt announce that he was taking on then-Colorado Sen. Mark Udall until March 2014, eight months before Election Day, and had previously said he wouldnt run against Udall in the 2014 Senate elections. Indeed, three of the Republicans who picked up Democratic seats in the 2014 cycle waited until fall 2013 or later to announce their bids.

Still, we probably should see other Republicans entering races soon if this is going to be a good cycle for Senate Republicans. Six of the nine Republican candidates who took over Democrat-held seats in 2014 had announced their candidacies by the end of August 2013. These included Tom Cotton in Arkansas, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Mike Rounds in South Dakota and Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia. That timeline was about normal, according to an analysis by Roll Calls Bridget Bowman.

While its certainly possible for one or two candidates to pull a Gardner, most wont have the ability to quickly fundraise or clear the primary field like he did. (Gardner was already running for re-election in the House, and the political environment was strongly in Republicans favor.) Theyll need months to build a campaign war chest and nail down endorsements to distinguish themselves from their primary competition. Moreover, the longer they wait, the less likely it is theyre going to win the seat. The national environment tends to get worse for the White House party the closer we get to a midterm.

If we end the summer without more Republicans declaring for the Senate in red states with Democratic senators, it may mean Republicans wont be able to take advantage of a good map.

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Red-State Senate Democrats Haven't Drawn Strong Opponents ... - FiveThirtyEight

With the Republican health care bill facing an uncertain fate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine Monday highlighted the potential impacts to children with complex medical conditions who rely on Medicaid an effort to shame the GOP into compromise while boosting Democratic prospects in the upcoming statewide elections.

Its important that we share stories about what Medicaid really does, Kaine (D) said before convening a roundtable discussion with parents and health care providers of children with disabilities inside Northern Virginia Community Colleges Medical Education campus. For many, Medicaid is about enabling them to live more independently, enabling them to be more successful in school.

The event was one in a string of appearances by Democrats around the country in recent weeks as they seek to rally opposition to Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with legislation that, among other things, would phase out extra funds provided by the federal government as an incentive to expand eligibility for Medicaid.

The Republican Better Care Reconciliation Act would also wipe out the system of open-ended entitlements under Medicaid by putting the program on a budget.

In Virginia, Kaine has campaigned against the bill through public meetings that underscored the potential impacts to seniors, public school children, foster kids and others among an estimated 1 million Virginians who rely on Medicaid.

His office says that more than 11,000 people have called during the past three weeks to urge the former Democratic candidate for vice president to fight harder to defeat the Republican health care plan.

More broadly, a recent Quinnipiac University poll pegged President Trumps approval rating in Virginia at 40 percent and found that nearly six in 10 Virginians disapproved of House Republicans health-care bill.

That may reflect a larger backlash against Republicans in the state that could help Democrat Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam beat Republican Ed Gillespie during Novembers gubernatorial election, political analysts say.

Gillespie, aware of the more moderate views in his state, has avoided taking a firm stance on the Republican health care plan, arguing that he is focused on state policies as a gubernatorial candidate and would match state policies to whatever the federal policy is.

Quentin Kidd, director of Christopher Newport Universitys Wason Center for Public Policy, said Northam and his supporters will nonetheless try to link Gillespie to the health care plan as much as possible.

They want voters to think about this issue in the context of a national referendum on Trump and Republicans, said Quentin Kidd, director of Christopher Newport Universitys Wason Center for Public Policy. If that offensive could take hold at the gubernatorial level, it would be natural that it would also roll down to the state house levels.

In addition to governor, lieutenant governor and state attorney general, all 100 House of Delegates seats are up for grabs in November.

At Mondays roundtable, the parents and pediatricians there said they were more concerned about how the health care bill would affect their ability to provide care to children dealing with an array of health problems.

Though Republican Senators returned from their holiday break seeming deeply divided over several aspects of the legislation, the roundtable participants said they arent convinced the bill is on its way to dying.

It should be dead, but I dont think we can say that it is, Kaine warned.

To the participants in the roundtable discussion, that means tens of thousands of dollars per year in Medicaid support is still on the line.

Several said the federal subsidy has helped pay for feeding tubes, wheel chairs, surgeries and in-home nurses aid for people with disabilities that is already in short supply in Virginia, with more than 11,000 people on a state waiting list for Medicaid vouchers.

These costs are going to be so high, worried Corinne Kunkel, whose son Dylan, 5, was born with a condition known as Spinal Muscular Atrophy with Respiratory Distress and receives a Medicaid waiver to help pay for a ventilator that allows him to breathe.

Its not like were asking for handouts, added Jennifer Reese, whose daughter Cailyn, 9, was born with a genetic seizure disorder and receives help from Medicaid for her treatment, including diapers that run $350 per box.

This is all stuff we need, said Reese, a director at the ENDependence Center of Northern Virginia, an advocacy group for people with disabilities. If we didnt have Medicaid we definitely wouldnt still own our house and I probably wouldnt have been able to keep working.

Dr. Samuel Bartle, an assistant professor at the Childrens Hospital of Richmond at VCU, predicted more families without insurance will turn to emergency rooms as a primary source of care.

Ive seen them come in at 2 a.m., where they come in and say: `I cant get an appointment because no one will take me, he said. We end up having to hospitalize them just to provide a certain service. Having Medicaid cut is going to put a bigger strain.

Nodding his head, Kaine said those dark scenarios have been mostly absent from discussion on Capitol Hill because the Republican leadership in the Senate crafted the legislation largely behind closed doors.

Weve had no hearings, said Kaine, who sits on the Senates Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee. Were ready to talk and to try to find the improvements but were being given no opporunity to.

Over the long term, that will prove to be politically damaging for Republicans on both the national level and in Virginia, he predicted.

When you have a guy running for governor like Ralph Northam, who has spent his life as a pediatrician, youre gonna hear an awful lot about health care in this governors race, he said. And, that is on peoples minds.

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Va. Sen. Kaine lobbies against Republican health care plan on both national and state political fronts - Washington Post

Forget questions about the Trumpsa Tennessee politician has been lavishing the funds from his campaign coffers on family members long before the first family moved into the White House.

Rep. Jimmy Duncan Jr., a Republican congressman who represents Knoxville, has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars of campaign money into his family members and their businesses since at least 2013, campaign finance filings first reported by the Knoxville News-Sentinel reveal. The payments included hundreds of thousands to an apparently non-existent company registered to Duncans son, who previously pleaded guilty to a felony relating to the alleged misappropriation of government funds.

The Duncans are a Tennessee political dynasty. Patriarch John Duncan Sr. first took local office in 1959, when he won a special election to replace Knoxvilles deceased mayor. In 1965, Duncan Sr. made the leap to Congress, representing Tennessees second district until his death in 1988. His son, Duncan Jr. won a special election to replace him, and has held the congressional seat with virtually no opposition for nearly three decades. Duncan Jr.s sister, Becky Duncan Massey, is a member of the Tennessee Senate representing Knoxville and its surrounding county.

Duncan Jr.s son, John Duncan III, has also been viewed as a political up-and-comer. He was elected Knox County Trustee in 2010. The election was an easy victory for Duncan III, who ran unopposed in the general election, and whose only primary opponent dropped out before the vote.

But shortly after taking office in September 2010, Duncan III allegedly ordered tens of thousands of dollars in bonuses for himself and other employees. The bonuses were purportedly for completing a training program, prosecutor Bill Bright alleged at the time. But seven of the bonus recipients, including Duncan III, allegedly never completed the training. When the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation became involved with the case, Duncan III allegedly told investigators that he hadnt known he wasnt allowed to award bonuses for the incomplete training. Three employees claimed otherwise, telling investigators that they had warned Duncan III against the payouts.

On July 2, 2013, Duncan III pleaded guilty to felony official misconduct on the case, and resigned from office without a jury trial. Thirteen days later, he was back on another politicians payroll: his fathers.

On July 15, Duncan Jr.s re-election campaign paid Duncan III $3,000, according to Federal Election Commission campaign records. The payments recurred every other week until Nov. 1, when records show the biweekly payments shifted to American Public Strategies. The company was registered on a county level to John J. Duncan less than a month earlier. While both Duncans share the name and middle initial, American Public Strategies was registered to the younger Duncans home address.

Payments to American Public Strategies soon increased to $3,500 every other week, and have remained at that rate ever since, FEC filings show. But while American Public Strategies was earning a steady $7,000 a month, its legal standing appeared less stable. Tennessee has no records of American Public Strategies ever being registered with the state, and the companys county registration (which would have expired within a year, the Nashville Post notes) was never renewed after its 2013 creation.

The $7,000 monthly paychecks raise questions about Duncan Jr.'s compliance with FEC rules, Brendan Fischer, a staff attorney for the Campaign Legal Center said.

"FEC rules specifically say if youre going to pay a family member for work for the campaign, the family member has to be providing bona fide services, and the amount paid has to be commensurate with the fair market value of the services provided," Fischer told The Daily Beast. "For a congressional candidate in a non-competitive district in Tennessee, it appears the payments to John Duncan III are exceptionally high for the services hes providing.

"Particularly in a non-election year, its difficult to see how theres a need to pay someone $7,000 a month to engage in campaign activities."

Duncan III did not return The Daily Beasts request for comment on the companys registration status. Between the payments to American Public Strategies, and the seven initial payments directly to him, Duncan III has made just short of $300,000 from his fathers campaign. His salary, which hit $84,000 in 2016, is greater than those of all but two of Duncan Jr.s staffers: the representatives chief of staff and deputy chief of staff, both of whom have worked in Congress since 2009, according to public records.

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In a statement to the News-Sentinel, Duncan III sent a text message, which he attributed to his father.

Every expenditure from my campaign has been done according to law and in compliance with all pertinent regulations of the Federal Election Commission, the statement, attributed to Duncan Jr., read. In the last four years, I have paid my son, John, who has been in charge of my entire political operation doing everything from putting up yard signs and answering campaign calls to conducting polls, giving speeches, and raising funds. He was paid far less than many campaign managers and consultants while doing many things that they would not do.

But Duncan III is not the only family member on the congressmans payroll.

Beginning in 2013, Duncan Jr.s campaign began paying a monthly $600 to Sage Investment Group, according to FEC filings. The monthly payments, which continue to this day, are labeled campaign office: rent expense. They appear to be the first time Duncan Jr.s campaign ever listed office space in its FEC filings. The Nashville Post reports that Sage Investment shares a P.O. box with the company JMB Investment LLC, where Duncan Jr.s son-in-law is one of four partners. That son-in-law has received $350 each month from Duncan Jr.s campaign since 2011, FEC filings show.

The campaign also shelled out three payments worth a combined $9,100 to Duncan Jr.s other son, Zane, although he did not receive a regular salary, FEC filings show. At the time of two of those payments Zane Duncan and his wife were running Road to Victory PAC, Duncan Jr.s political action committee. In every two-year election cycle since 2011, the couple has received $15,000 annually from the PACmore than it donated in any politician during those cycles. During the 2011-2012 cycle, the PAC only donated to two candidates: $1,000 to a California candidate, and $2,000 to Duncan Jr.s sister, Becky Duncan Massey, who won her local Tennessee Senate seat that year.

The campaign has also reportedly paid a monthly $750 to Duncan Masseys daughter, a Texas-based gymnastics teacher in charge of the campaigns bookkeeping.

"This is all for a congressperson in a noncompetitive district who has not faced a serious challenger for many years," Fischer said. "There does appear to be a pattern of payments to family members that raises the question of whether Congressman Duncan is illegally converting campaign funds to personal use."

See original here:
Republican Congressman Jimmy Duncan's Campaign Paid His Son Nearly $300000 - Daily Beast

Trump has spoken with far greater affection for Putin, Saudi princes and the right-wing nationalists now in power in Poland than for democratic pluralists such as Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Emmanuel Macron. At the G-20 summit, in fact, both Merkel and Macron sounded more like post-World War II American presidents than Trump did.

And the ambiguity about what Trump said during his two-hour meeting with Putin about Russian meddling in the 2016 election (the administration denied that Trump had accepted Putin's denials, as Russia claimed, but its own account of what Trump actually did tell him was hardly reassuring) only underscored the president's reluctance to confront the Russian leader on anything. Trump gave Putin exactly what he wanted was the headline on a commentary in the New York Times by Russian writer and dissident Masha Gessen. It was hard to deny its truth.

In his speech in Polandon Thursday, Trump did commit himself to the Western alliance, but in an otherwise gloomy, backward-looking and Manichaean address.

The fundamental question of our time is whether the West has the will to survive, Trump said. Do we have the desire and the courage to preserve our civilization in the face of those who would subvert and destroy it? If we fail to defend what our ancestors" passed down to us, Trump warned, it will never, ever exist again.

To which one might respond: Yikes! Trump's words were remarkably similar to Bannon's pronouncements in a speech to a traditionalist Catholic group in Rome in 2014. Bannon spoke of a Judeo-Christian West that finds itself in a crisis and confronts a new barbarity" that will completely eradicate everything that we've been bequeathed over the last 2,000, 2,500 years."

This dire view should remind the democratic left and the democratic right that while they have disagreed on many aspects of American foreign policy over the last two decades, they share some deep allegiances. These include a largely positive assessment of what the modern world has achieved; a hopeful vision of what could lie before us; a commitment to democratic norms as the basis of our thinking about the kind of world we seek; and a belief that ethnic and religious pluralism are to be celebrated, not feared.

They also see alliances with fellow democracies as serving us better than pacts with autocratic regimes that cynically tout their devotion to traditional values as cover for old-fashioned repression and expansionism.

Democrats have many incentives for opposing Trump. But it's Republicans who have the power that comes from controlling Congress. Their willingness to stand up to a president of their own party could determine the future of democracy and pluralism. He is, alas, a man whose commitment to these values we have reason to doubt, and his European jaunt did nothing to calm those fears.

E.J. Dionne's email address isejdionne@washpost.com. Twitter: @EJDionne. (c) 2017, Washington Post Writers Group

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Allies for Democracy? - Commonweal

Getty Images

Ivanka Trump attends a panel discussion on the second day of the G-20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

The United States is a democracy, where formal power is conferred by the people, not by ones family. Qualifications and experience, and not bloodlines, are the qualities that supposedly matter in White House appointments.

Those core notions have been trespassed against before in one famous instance of nepotism, John F. Kennedy made his brother Robert attorney general but seldom to the degree the country is witnessing under President Donald Trump. His inclination to give close relatives instrumental roles reflects a notion of a family, rather than an individual, in power. In that regard, its reminiscent of the way that third-world strongmen run their governments.

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That came into particular focus this past weekend, when first daughter Ivanka Trump on several occasions sat in for her father at a meeting of G-20 leaders. Thus the 35-year-old fashion businesswoman and socialite was at the table representing the United States in a confab that included Germanys Angela Merkel, Britains Theresa May, Chinas Xi Jinping, Russias Vladimir Putin, and Turkeys Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Visually jarring as that was, Ivanka and husband Jared Kushner also joined the president during his personal meeting with Merkel. Kushner, of course, is another family member Trump has installed in his inner circle and imbued with considerable power.

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Among Kushners many charges is bringing peace to the Middle East, acting as a point of contact with China, and leading efforts to make the US government operate more like a business. Any of those tasks would be an oversized portfolio for a young fellow whose principal qualification for White House service has been successfully courting Ivanka.

Ivanka Trump found herself thrust into a diplomatic scandal over the weekend after filling in for her father at the Group of 20 summit.

The danger of turning ones political quest into a family enterprise also came into focus with the news that, during the campaign, Donald Trump Jr. enlisted then-campaign chairman Paul Manafort as well as Kushner as fellow attendees at a meeting with well-connected Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya. Trump Jr. agreed to that meeting in the hope of obtaining damaging information about Hillary Clinton.

But Team Trump has responded to the news exactly as youd expect. Although it contradicts the administrations past claims that there was no contact between Trump associates and Russians, Donald Jr. has scornfully dismissed it all as much ado about nothing. Kellyanne Conway of course attacked the media for focusing on it.

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Regarding Ivanka, President Trump played the double-standard card, tweeting that if Chelsea Clinton had similarly sat in for her mother, the Fake News would say CHELSEA FOR PRES!

Here, Trumps motives may be twofold. First, to water perennial GOP grievances over a perceived media double standard. Second, to subtly put in play the idea that Ivanka, like Chelsea, should be viewed as a first child with a promising political future.

In fact, neither Ivanka nor Chelsea should be seen as future political stars until they have accomplished something substantial on their own, outside their parents sphere of influence.

More to the point, Trump should staff his government with qualified, knowledgeable, experienced people. Turning important White House roles over to bumbling naifs whose only reason for being there is familial ties is a recipe for mediocrity.

Its not the way the country that once led the world should be run.

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The US is a democracy, not a family affair - The Boston Globe