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Right now, American movie theatres are featuring the summer blockbuster Dunkirk, written and directed by Christopher Nolan, about the famous WWII evacuation of trapped Allied troops which most Brits regard as among their finest hours.

That evacuation, in which hundreds of ordinary people joined an impromptu flotilla to bring the troops home, occasioned Winston Churchills famed 1940 speech: We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

Obviously, the WWII-era Dunkirk was a moment of high, world-changing drama, and it deserves to be memorialized. However, theres an equally dramatic, but as-yet uncelebrated, Dunkirk going on right now before our eyes, in this case a moment of great Catholic heroism.

The difference is, its actually a Dunkirk in reverse the idea isnt to get people out, but to help them stay. Thats an image Ive used before, and it remains completely on the money.

RELATED: Group leads Dunkirk in reverse for Christians of Iraq, Syria

Since the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, every religious minority in the region has suffered, with Christians leading the pack because of their numbers and visibility. A variety of international groups, including the U.S. government, has recognized those Christians as victims of genocide.

The devastation has been staggering. In Iraq in 2003, there were an estimated 1.5 million Christians, while today the high-end number for those left is usually set at around 300,000. Similarly, Syrias Christian community is believed to have been cut in half.

An image of Mary and Jesus damaged by ISIS in the Nineveh Plains. (Credit: Photo courtesy of the Nineveh Plains Reconstruction Project.)

Given the lethal violence directed at Christians, as well as the general social and political chaos, the real question probably isnt why so many have left, but why those brave few have remained. Therein lies the tale of the Catholic Dunkirk in reverse.

Essentially, the answer is because private Christian organizations around the world, the lions share Catholic, have stepped up for the last five years or so, ensuring those Christians are fed, sheltered, and have access to medical care and, more importantly, that they have the promise of a better future to come, thereby offering them reason to ride out the storm.

One might think that such a responsibility for humanitarian rescue would fall to the entire world, especially the major Western powers and inter-governmental bodies such as the United Nations. Indeed, the UN and Western governments have invested major resources in Iraq and Syria, but the overwhelming majority has never reached Christian victims of the conflict, and doesnt to this day.

Heres why: The bulk of public humanitarian aid in Iraq and Syria is delivered through major refugee camps, either in places such as Erbil, or to camps in Jordan and Lebanon. However, Christians typically dont go to those camps, fearing infiltration by Jihadist loyalists and thus further exposure to persecution and violence.

As a result, the Christians take refuge with church institutions churches, schools, clinics, hospitals, social service centers, even the private homes and properties of other Christians. What that means is that from the beginning, those Christians, numbering in the hundreds of thousands by now, have been basically abandoned by most international relief efforts.

A February 2017 image shows the destruction of Batnaya, a small town on the Nineveh plains, near Mosul. Approximately 850 Christian families were living there when it was taken over by ISIS in August of 2014, and only liberated at the end of October 2016. The town was held by ISIS and so subject to devastating aerial bomb attacks from coalition forces. (Credit: Aid to the Church in Need.)

So, whos giving them food, water, clothes and medicine? Who, in effect, has kept them alive?

To begin with, its been the local churches in Iraq and Syria, who have done absolutely astonishing work in supporting people in the most difficult circumstances imaginable. The bishops, clergy and religious in those two nations are among the most unacknowledged moral heroes of our time. However, theyre far from having deep pockets, so whos making that heroism possible?

The answer is, We are, as in American Catholics. Certainly Catholics, other Christians, and people of good will from all around the world are also involved, but theres been a special, and remarkable, mobilization by American Catholic organizations.

Consider the following numbers, which are only representative rather than comprehensive.

All in, thats a stunning amount of American Catholic money flowing to help some of the most embattled Christians in the world today.

At the original Dunkirk, some 330,000 Allied troops were rescued. Although exact numbers at this stage are impossible, its a slam-dunk certainty that at least that many Christians have been kept alive, were able to remain with their families, and given some hope of better things to come by the current Dunkirk in reverse.

Fear for the future, however, hasnt disappeared. I spoke this week to Father AndrzejHalemba of Aid to the Church in Need, which is spearheading a major effort called the Nineveh Plains Reconstruction Project, designed to rebuild houses and other facilities destroyed by ISIS to allow Christians in Iraq to return to their village homes.

The Christians ask me, Father, is our future going to be like Turkey? he said. The reference is to the fact that in 1915, Christians were almost one-quarter of the population in Turkey, but today its around 0.2 percent, principally the result of the Armenian Genocide.

To avoid that result, the Nineveh Plains Reconstruction Project aims to generate $250 million to rebuild the roughly 13,000 private homes that were burned, destroyed or partially damaged. Aid to the Church in Need has already rebuilt 100 homes, and, in the meantime, is caring for the roughly 12,000 other families, or some 95,000 people, waiting to go back.

Eventually, the idea is also to rebuild the 363 church properties that were also burned, damaged or destroyed, not to mention thoroughly looted.

A survey conducted by Aid to the Church in Need in February found 41 percent of displaced Christian families today want to return, and another 46 percent are considering doing so. Thats a reflection of military defeats for ISIS, of course, but also to the commitment of Aid to the Church in Need and other groups in providing these people a reason to believe theyre not alone.

Halemba expressed strong faith that the U.S. government will contribute to the reconstruction effort, since private Catholic resources arent infinite.

The U.S., definitely, is famous for its generosity and compassion with people who are internally displaced and victims of genocide in Iraq, he said, saying he has strong faith that governmental organizations from the U.S., Germany, others, will extend a helping hand for Nineveh Plains citizens, including Christians, Yazidis, and others in need.

Heres hoping that confidence is justified.

Halemba stressed, by the way, that the Christians of Iraq arent beggars.

We dont need foreign companies to come build houses, he said. The people are industrious and qualified. Weve got carpenters, engineers, masons, and others, ready to work.

This is about restoring dignity and giving hope to the citizens of the Nineveh Plains, and at the same time giving them salaries, he said.

Halemba called for a great appeal in support of the Nineveh Plains Reconstruction Project to save the cradle of Christianity. More information can be found on the projects website.

As long as were expressing hope for things, heres something else to dream about: That one day, the courage and the commitment of these Catholics who have put everything on the line their money, their blood, sweat and tears, even their lives to save the worlds most beleaguered Christians, and to help ensure that Christianity doesnt vanish from one of its antique strongholds, will also be captured in a Hollywood blockbuster.

For sure, its a drama that lends itself to celluloid. Its also one that calls for vigorous effort to bring the story to conclusion, so that the final scene isnt leaving anybody on the beach.

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Where's the blockbuster for the 'Dunkirk in reverse' in Iraq and Syria? - Crux: Covering all things Catholic

Editors Note: This piece originally appeared on Markaz.

Now that Mosul is back under coalition control, policymakers from D.C. to Baghdad must focus anew on building a lasting and durable peace in Iraq.

Fortunately, in the decade since the issue of post-conflict stability last took center stage, researchers have learned a great deal about why and how peace endures. As with any literature, the debates are not fully settled. But we nonetheless have a much clearer understanding of why some civil wars yield to lasting peace, while others beget further violence.

So what are the keys to a stable, post-conflict Iraq? Three findings in particular stand out.

Win Big

As study after study has shown, whether civil war recurs depends in part on how the war initially ends. Did the fighting stop after a clear victory for one side? Or did the guns instead fall silent because a peace deal was signed after a partial victory or stalemate?

Ironically, the surer path to peace is not actually a peace deal. Its victory. As Anke Collier and her colleague Richard Caplan have most recently shown, peace deals are far more likely to yield to further fighting down the road than military victories. In ceasefires and negotiated settlements both parties live to fight another day, but in a military victory only one does. As a result, of the 205 post-conflict cases that Collier and Caplan looked at, fighting typically resumed within 10 years in fewer than 25 percent of the cases ended by military victories, but in roughly 50 percent of those ended in peace deals.

For Iraq, the clear takeaway is thus to pursue a full military victory. For the country to enjoy a stable, long-term peace, the Iraqi coalition cannot just regain all Islamic State territory: its forces must destroy the Islamic State as an insurgent group too.

Yet if history is any guide, that task will be easier said than done. The graph below shows battle deaths from 2004 to 2013 between the Iraqi government and the Islamic State and its predecessor, al-Qaida in Iraq:

Note that even in 2012, when the conflict was at its ebb, the Islamic States insurgency still claimed the lives of 500 militants and soldiers.

For stable peace to take root, the Iraqi coalition will thus have its hands full. It cannot merely push the Islamic State out of its remaining territoryit will also have to prevent the Islamic State from reverting to its pre-war insurgency too.

Beware Spoilers

Peace is difficult enough to sustain when there are only two parties. Add in more rebel groups, however, and it gets even harder.

Think of it as the conflict version of having too many cooks in the kitchen. The more rebels there are, the more difficult it is to get them all to agree on what the recipe for peace should be. Even worse, the more rebels there are, the more likely at least one will have incentive to play the spoilertypically by targeting civilians as a way of eroding popular support for political compromise.

Think of it as the conflict version of having too many cooks in the kitchen.

Two of the best new studies on post-conflict stabilization, by Sean Ziegler and by Peter Rudloff and Michael Findley, show that the effects of rebel competition are especially pernicious. When rebel groups split and compete with one another, they dont just make it harder to end civil warsthey make it harder to keep the peace for years after the war finally ends. In one model, in fact, peace was over 50 percent more likely to break over 10 years when there had been multiple rebel groups than when there had only been one.

For Iraq, the implication is straightforward: The coalition should do all it can to avoid either splintering the Islamic State or giving rise to competing Sunni insurgents. Rather than trying to weaken the Islamic State by fracturing itwhich Kathleen Cunningham has shown is a common tacticthe coalition should instead seek to keep the Islamic State unified.

Fortunately, this may actually prove feasible. Based on data from the Global Terrorism Dataset, Figure 2 below shows the number of distinct Sunni organizations in Iraq that carried out a significant attack in Iraq (i.e., one with 5 or more fatalities) in a given year:

As the figure illustrates, the Islamic State and its predecessor group, al-Qaida in Iraq, have proven remarkably adept at either coopting or driving out Sunni rivals. They did this first following the Iraqi insurgency of the mid-2000s, and then again soon after declaring a caliphate.

Although the resilience of the Islamic State will make full victory difficult, the fact that it has edged out its rivals is a boon. The Iraq coalition should now ensure that as they defeat the Islamic State, those prior networks dont splinter off or re-emerge.

Be Inclusive

Not all peace deals are alike. Some are much more prone to fall apart than others. As Charles Calla professor at American University and a nonresident senior fellow at Brookingsexplains in his recent book, the peace deals that survive tend to share one thing in common: Theyre inclusive. By contrast, peace settlements that exclude or marginalize opposition groups tend to break down.

Calls work echoes other prior findings. In an early work on the issue, for instance, Caroline Hartzell and Matthew Hoddie looked at 38 civil wars that ended with peace agreements, and found that those with power-sharing institutions were much more likely to last. The more a rebel movement is incorporated into the political process, it turns out, the less incentive it will have to take up arms down the road.

Arguably the most compelling recent work on post-conflict stabilization builds on that logic. In Why Bad Governance Leads to Repeat Civil War, Barbara Walter looked at the effect of state institutions during civil wars on post-war violence. Does better, more inclusive governance lead to more lasting post-conflict peace? What Walter found was that while democracy itself is not associated with lower risk of recurring violence, aspects of it are. More specifically, countries with a commitment to rule of law and high political participation are significantly less likely to see armed conflict return. As Walter discovered, its not elections per se that appear to matter, but instead popular trust that the political process is in fact open.

For Iraq, the research has important implications. The government of Prime Minister Al-Abadi must seek out greater Sunni representation. Fortunately, Abadi has already made efforts to reverse the sectarian excesses of his predecessor, Nouri Al-Maliki, who unwisely consolidated power among Shiite elites. Yet as the Islamic State retreats and the Iraqi army extends further into Sunni strongholds, Abadi will have to do more than simply outperform Al-Maliki: He will have to find a way to bring as many Sunnis as possible back into the political process.

None of these tasks will be easy. Yet if Abadi and other Iraqi leaders want a stable future, the path forward is clear: Dismantle the Islamic States capacity and reach, and bring Iraqi Sunnis back into the fold before new spoilers emerge.

Anything less, and Iraqs longstanding violence will almost certainly continue apace.

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Evidence-Based Keys to a Stable Post-Caliphate Iraq - Lawfare (blog)

As Islamic State militants continue to lose territory in their declared caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria, officials and analysts are expressing concern that al-Qaida is making efforts to turn those losses into gains for itself.

Al-Qaida had been largely eclipsed by IS in recent years, with IS militants grabbing headlines by seizing territory in Iraq and Syria and carrying out attacks in the West. But there are signs that al-Qaida may be re-emerging as a regional power.

"Al-Qaida in Syria is using opportunities to seize additional safe havens, to integrate itself into parts of the local population, parts of other forces, and bumping into other forces as well," said Joshua Geltzer, a former senior director for counterterrorism at the U.S National Security Council.

Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot al-Qaida group originally known as the al-Nusra Front, has recently emerged as the most powerful Sunni insurgent faction in Syria after consolidating its control over most of the northwestern province of Idlib.

"Idlib now is a huge problem. It is an al-Qaida safe haven right on the border of Turkey," Brett McGurk, special presidential envoy for the U.S.-led global coalition to counter IS, said at the Middle East Institute in Washington on Thursday.

McGurk blamed the flow of weapons and foreign fighters into Syria for al-Qaida's gradual strengthening in Syria.

Measures under way

McGurk added that the U.S.-led coalition intended to work with Turkey to seal the northern Syrian border to prevent more recruits from joining al-Qaida affiliates in the region.

Hailing the progress of the Iraqi forces and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, McGurk said the coalition's priority was defeating IS. But now that priority also includes ensuring that foreign fighters do not leave the region to cause trouble elsewhere.

"We do not want any foreign fighters getting out of Iraq and Syria," he said during a panel discussion at the Middle East Institute on the Trump administration's counterterrorism policy.

Experts warn that as IS-controlled territory shrinks, the terror group's foreign fighters will inevitably be drawn to al-Qaida.

"You may see on a local level al-Qaida affiliates being opportunistic and pulling in ISIS units who kind of feel lost," Charles Lister, a Syria analyst for the Middle East Institute said, using another acronym for IS. "They [IS militants] don't have the same kind of grandeur, they don't have the same powerful leadership, and they don't have the same powerful brand that they had before."

IS-al-Qaida alliance?

Led by Jordanian jihadist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, IS was founded as an offshoot of al-Qaida in Iraq in 2004. But as IS gained influence in Iraq and Syria in 2014, the terror group split from al-Qaida, and the two groups engaged in acrimonious and at times bloody competition over the leadership of the jihadist cause. For years, IS has been siphoning off followers of al-Qaida. That trend seems to have begun to reverse.

Iraq's Vice President Ayad Allawi told Reuters in April that he had information from Iraqi and regional contacts that "the discussion has started now" concerning a "possible alliance" between the two terror groups.

Referring to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, Allawi said, "There are discussions and dialogue between messengers representing Baghdadi and representing Zawahiri."

While some analysts raise concerns about the possibility of IS and al-Qaida joining hands, others like Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute downplay it, arguing that an ultimate rapprochement between the two groups is unlikely, given the history of animosity and their fundamental differences on "global jihad."

Lister, however, highlighted that al-Qaida could take an opportunistic approach to draw IS members into its ranks as the terror group faces defeats on several fronts in Iraq and Syria.

Lister said Hamza bin Laden, son of Osama bin Laden, who has recently appeared as a new face of al-Qaida leadership, has been trying to ease tensions with IS in an effort to encourage the merger of IS fighters into al-Qaida.

"Hamza has very purposely, I think, not spoken out against ISIS in all of his recent statements," Lister said.

Al-Qaida in a blind spot

Experts warn that as the U.S-led coalition is cracking down on IS-controlled territory in Iraq and Syria, it should not allow al-Qaida to move to other areas and operate at ease. They say the group is trying to gain sympathy of the local Syrian population by showing itself as a moderate alternative to Islamic State.

"We continue to underestimate al-Qaida," said Jennifer Cafarella, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank. "While al-Qaida in Syria is currently not actively attacking abroad, they have built an army. It has consolidated control in Idlib, and is preparing to do the same underneath the U.S.-Russian cease-fire deal in Daraa to expand that model of first destroying the moderate opposition and then begin instillation of al-Qaida governance to transform population over time."

She said the strategy of the U.S.-led coalition after removing IS from Iraq and Syria needs to shift to the reconstruction of infrastructure destroyed because of war, and that should be coupled with addressing the grievances of Sunni residents who feel marginalized by Iran-backed Shi'ite militias.

"This is a very long war and we haven't won it yet. These tactical successes are important but can be temporary if we do not set adequate conditions, which is much more than a military requirement," Cafarella said.

Link:
Will IS Losses in Iraq, Syria Boost al-Qaida? - Voice of America

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IAAF World ParaAthletics Championships - London, Britain - July 17, 2017

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Emmanuel Macron says France will set up refugee 'hotspots' in Libya - The Independent

GNA prime minister Fayez Al Sarraj with French president Emmanuel Macron and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army. Philippe Wojazer / Reuters

The cause of peace has made a great deal of progress today, French president Emanuel Macron declared on Tuesday, referring to the outcome of the deliberations between Libyas prime minister and its most powerful general. Mr Macron had brought together Fayez Al Sarraj, head of the UN-backed Libyan unity government, and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar under one roof to negotiate an end to Libyas years-long conflict. The agreement that emerged from their talks, building on their last meeting in Abu Dhabi on May 3, merits the solemn praise lavished on it by Mr Macron. The joint declaration signed by Field Marshal Haftar and Mr Al Sarraj is both comprehensive and visionary. Both sides agree that only a political solution accompanied by a national reconciliation process can rescue Libya from the ongoing crisis. To achieve this, both men have committed themselves to a ceasefire; arms will not be used for any purpose that does not strictly constitute counterterrorism. The two sides have agreed to work in earnest on drafting a new constitution, building democratic institutions, and instituting the rule of law. They have pledged to begin work on unifying Libya, and to make efforts to integrate freelance fighters into regular forces or disarm and help them rejoin civilian life. Parliamentary and presidential elections will be held as soon as possible, and further talks will be pursuant to the deal brokered by Mr Macron. After three years of conflict, this agreement represents the opening of a pathway for peace. But the magnitude of this moment must not blind us to the enormity of the challenges that lie ahead. Field Marshal Haftar and Mr Al Sarraj have not just committed to ending the bitter war raging in Libya. They have embarked on a nation-building project. Libyas history makes it inimical to such ambitions. Muammar Qaddafi diligently hollowed out the countrys institutions during his long decades of misrule. Libyas new leaders have no native inheritance to build upon. They must start from scratch. The Libyans states loss of legitimacy under Mr Gaddafi will only add to the difficulty of convincing Libyans to place renewed trust in the state. Will the militiamen who run the myriad warring outfits that have sprung up across Libya give up their arms to unify behind a single source of power? Will ordinary Libyans, who were brutally betrayed by the ancien regime, feel secure enough to engage freely and openly in a reconciliation process set in motion by a new government? Field Marshal Haftar and Mr Al Sarraj have shown great courage in burying their differences for the good of Libya. Each needs the other, and their joint efforts, if sustained and supported by the world, can yield genuinely positive results for Libya. But the road to peace is a long one. As they put their plan into action, it might be prudent to temper our expectations.

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The long road to peace and reconciliation in Libya - The National