Mediaboss Marketing

Trump. Photo: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

On Friday, North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, leading to an eruption of concern from the security community. The Trump White House, however, has this week focused its belligerence lesson Pyongyang and the weapons it has, and more on Iran, despite the nuclear weapons it is prevented from getting.Last week, Secretary of State Tillerson pleasantly surprised his critics by certifying that Iran is complying with the terms of the 2015 deal that iced its nuclear ambitions and subjected it to intense inspections and restrictions for the next decade and more. This week, his boss fired back:I would be surprised if they were in compliance at the next review in 90 days, PresidentTrump told The Wall Street Journal.

This has less to do with Iran and more to do with Trumps frustration with his own Cabinet for supporting the deal reportedly so great that he commissioned a parallel working group of lower-level, less-experienced officials to advise him before the next review.

So the threat of a major conflict with Iran is high because the administration wants it that way.Mostif not all of the administrations key national security players, and their allies in Congress, see stepped-up U.S. military activity in the region as important to confronting Iran. Far from believing that the Iran deal contained the most serious U.S.-Iran flashpoint, theybelieve Iran, even without nuclear weapons, poses an existential threat to the U.S. and our allies. They believe that regime change switching out Irans theocracy for a (hypothetical) secular democracy is the only way, long-term, to deal with that threat. (Hands up if you recall hearing that one before about a country beginning with I.)

This belief, by itself, isnt the problem. Many, though far from most, Iranians, share their longing for a government that is more liberal and democratic, and less allied with extremist groups elsewhere in the Middle East. And though there is often hyperbole in the accusations, they are grounded in truth: Iran supports armed extremist groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel-Palestine, and to a lesser extent Yemen including the worlds most potent non-state fighting force, Hezbollah. Irans government mistreats its people badly though not, say, worse than our Saudi allies. The anti-Tehran faction believes that its worth putting pressure on Irans willingness to comply with the nuclear deal in order to push on these other issues while the Obama administration believed the U.S. and the region could live with problematic behavior but not with nuclear empowerment.

No, the problem is that the combination of a highly militarized standoff, multiple shooting wars across the region, and an administration that combines high rhetoric and low predictability is a recipe for escalation.

Just Tuesday, a U.S. Navy vesselfired warning shotsat an Iranian boat, apparently operated by the hard-line Revolutionary National Guard forces, that came within 150 yards of it. Such incidents had decreased significantly during 2016, but still occur with some regularity.As far as we can tell, the hotline communication Secretary Kerry developed with Iranian foreign minister Zarif has been discontinued.The Iranians are well aware though most Americans are not of the stepped-up tempo of U.S. military operations in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, and the heightened presence of ground and naval forces.

Add to that the package of new sanctions that the president apparently demanded asthe price for certifying the deal this time. Within 24 hours of the certification, the administration put economic sanctions on 18 new Iranian individuals and corporate entities for a range of alleged offenses including harassment of U.S. naval vessels and attempts to build ballistic missiles or steal U.S. software. Most offenses had no direct connection to the nuclear deal. Tehran responded with rage, saying that these sanctions themselves violated the terms of the nuclear deal.

The White House has help from Congress in ratcheting up tensions. The House andSenate have now eachpassed versions ofa bipartisan sanctions bill. While it has gotten attention for the new penalties it imposes on Russian entities and foreigners who collaborate with them to harm U.S. interests on cybersecurity, energy, human rights, and other areas,it also sets a range of new penalties on Iranians for actions related to ballistic missiles, regional terrorism, or human-rights violations. Now we wait to see whether President Trump will sign or veto legislation thatputs on Moscow the very pressures they hope will bend Tehran to the breaking point.

So anyone in Iran who wants to claim that the U.S. is implacably opposed to Irans existing government and actively seeking to undermine it economically, while challenging it militarily, has plenty of data to point to.

Given Irans regional goals, the means it believes are acceptable to employ, and the groups with which it is allied, defending U.S. interests and the nuclear deal was always going to require both strong regional presence and adroit diplomacy. What we have instead, though, is the unpredictable and bellicose rhetoric of the president and his team. Deterrence theory says that countries can be frightened into remaining peaceful if they know exactly what the consequences for aggression would be.

But the range of tweets, offhand remarks, threats, and past ruminations about regime change leave quite a bit of room for Iranian actors to believe that Washington is determined not just to contain their government, but to remove it from power. Michael Crowley points out at Politico that key Trump officials are on the record as saying that Iran will remain a U.S. enemy until the clerical leaders and military officials who control the countrys political system are deposed. And they have continued to make such statements earlier this spring, Secretary Tillerson sparked a public protest from the Iranian government when he told Congress that the U.S. should work with opposition groups toward the peaceful transition of that government.

The nuclear deal was never intended to resolve all the problems between the U.S. and Iran. It was intended to take off the table the question of nuclear weapons, which all sides had identified as the flashpoint that could most easily flare into war. But given both Washingtons differences with Tehran on key issues from human rights to Syria, and this administrations addiction to incendiary and off-the-cuff rhetoric, thats exactly where we (still) are.

An undignified end for the Trump teams original outsider.

The president finished out his terrible week by calling Republicans fools and quitters while threatening to spike Congressional health coverage.

Sundays vote to elect a constituent assembly could further undermine the countrys democracy or unleash large-scale political violence.

The socialist nation is in free fall. The Times Andes bureau chief clues us in on whats going on and what might come next.

The first major legislation passed during Trumps presidency will be a bill he opposed and now has no choice but to sign.

A hack forever tainted in Trumps eyes by his one moment of decency.

The nuclear deal was meant to reduce the risk of war. With the president backing away from it, get ready for fireworks.

Its too early to tell whether Democrats have a real shot at winning back the House next year, but a big jump in candidates running is a good sign.

Donald Trump likes having generals around, and he really likes John Kelly. But can a Marine run a White House whose boss loves chaos above all?

Trump tweeted that he is proud of Priebus and all they accomplished.

Please dont be too nice, Trump told police in Long Island.

If the climactic vote on the skinny repeal had gone the other way, the result would have probably been the same: GOP failure, with much time lost.

The U.S. believes the missile used to send a satellite to space could be a precursor to an ICBM.

Brian Kilmeade says the same dumb thing Paul Ryan said a few months ago.

Republicans came within one vote of passing a health-care bill that they wrote over lunch and admitted was a disaster. Thats a national crisis.

Kasich has never bent the knee to Trump. But viable primary challengers to sitting presidents come from the fever swamps, not the sensible center.

Moscow is taking away a vacation home where U.S. diplomats walk their dogs and have cookouts.

Consider the violence the president has done to the structures of American democracy in just the past seven days.

A proposed zoning change to the area near Grand Central is set to remake the neighborhood for decades. But at what cost?

Republicans couldnt come up with a workable health-care plan, so they kept kicking the can down the road. The road finally ended in the Senate today.

More here:
Trump's Dangerous Game With Iran - New York Magazine

Iranian press has announced a successful launch of the Simorgh space launch vehicle.

A couple days later, theres no sign of an orbital object being tracked from the launch. Its not like the US space surveillance to take so long to catalog a low-earth orbiting object, so I dont think one is forthcoming.

That nothing got to orbit may be either by design or failure. Iran tends not to announce its space program failures, and the video showed at least the early part of the launch went off without catastrophe. In any case, this would be the first successful launch of the Simorgh. We wrote a few pieces on Simorgh last year, in anticipation of its launch then: first, second, third.

Whats interesting about the Simorgh?

So far, all Irans satellites have been launched with the Safir rocket, which is significantly less capable than the Simorgh. The Simorgh is closer to North Koreas Unha, but with two stages instead of three.

Simorghwas meant to be launched in 2010; its conspicuous absence could mean that its development has been harder than anticipated, or that sanctions on ballistic missile and space technologyhave limitedIrans ability to get materials it needs, or that there have been test launches that have failed and not been reported. Last years test may have been one such failure, or it may have been a suborbital test.

Why would Iran want satellites?

A new satellite would be the fifth for Iran, following Omid (2009), Rasad(2011),Navid(2012),andFajr(2015). These satellites were all launched by the Safir rocket.

These were all small satellites, 50 kg or lighter, lofted into such low-altitude orbits that atmospheric drag brought them down within weeks. Ive not seen any data published from these satellites. Perhaps they didnt work as anticipated or perhaps the results were not impressive enough to burnish programs reputation.

The Simorgh is larger and more capable than Safir, and can put heavier satellites at higher orbits. Larger satellites mean more capability, and higher orbits mean they will stay up for longer. Iran is a large country with tough geographybig deserts & mountains. Its prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, and has adversarial neighbors. It could benefit from satellites for national security purposes as well as for economic & social development.

Posted in: Space and Satellites Tags: Iran, missiles, satellites, simorgh, space

Support from UCS members make work like this possible. Will you join us? Help UCS advance independent science for a healthy environment and a safer world.

Link:
Simorgh Launch: Iran's Bigger Ride to Space Gets off the Ground - All Things Nuclear

Sixteen years ago a new president, George W. Bush, focused his attention on domestic issues, especially tax reduction, not on foreign policy. Bill Clinton warned him that al-Qaida planned more terrorist attacks in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Then, on Sept. 11, 2001, New Yorks World Trade Towers were collapsing and the Pentagon was severely damaged by an al-Qaeda hijacked jet.

Now another new president, Donald Trump, focuses on health care and tax reform. But unlike in 2001, his administration is preparing for war.

Three potential flash points are now visible: North Korea, whose missile threats alarmed Japan, South Korea and the United States; Russia, whose military incursions into eastern Ukraine and the Baltic region caused NATO to respond; and Iran, which intends to extend its influence across the Middle East by undermining Arab regimes and installing governments friendly to Tehran.

A military clash in Northeast Asia seems less imminent today than two months ago, following Pyongyangs missile threats against U.S. bases in Japan. Deployment of major U.S. naval and air power to the region and pressure on China to rein in its belligerent Korean ally have cooled tensions.

Similarly, armed conflict with Russia seems less likely than it did earlier, for two reasons: The U.S. and NATO deployed troops to Poland and three Baltic States to warn Moscow that the tactics it used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine would be met with force. Russian planes continue to harass NATO forces in the Baltic Sea, but Moscow recently took steps to avoid accidental clashes.

Iran is a different challenge. And unless Tehran changes course, it may trigger armed confrontation with American forces in Iraq and the Persian Gulf.

Tehrans Revolutionary Guard has paramilitary units that support Shiite forces in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, work to undermine pro-American governments in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Arab Gulf States and potentially Jordan and Egypt. Revolutionary Guard forces are not under the authority of Irans elected government in Tehran, but instead report to the countrys top clerical leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

America maintains two important overseas air and naval bases in the strategically vital Persian Gulf: a large Navy installation at Bahrain and a major Air Force base in Qatar. Iranian speedboats regularly challenge U.S. warships in the Gulf, and one of them may precipitate a clash that results in armed conflict.

Neighboring Iraq, however, is the most dangerous flash point for conflict between Washington and Tehran. This emerges as ISIS is driven from major cities, including the newly liberated Mosul. Iraqs Shiite militias, bolstered by Iranian Special Forces, plan to fill the political vacuum left in liberated areas and push Iraq into Tehrans embrace. Baghdads moderate prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, will be powerless against this outcome unless Saudi Arabia and other Arab states fully support U.S. actions to back his government and Iraqs new army.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told a congressional committee recently that Irans leadership plans to extend its hegemony in the Persian Gulf at the expense of Saudi Arabia. Our policy toward Iran, he said, is to push back on this hegemony and work toward supporting those elements inside Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that government. Some suggested this is a call for regime change in Tehran.

Secretary of Defense James Mattis, a retired Marine general with wide experience in Iraq, called Iran the most destabilizing influence in the Middle East. Most defense experts agree it was a mistake for the U.S. to withdraw its troops from Iraq in 2012. Washington reversed course in 2016 and now has 5,000 advisers, trainers and intelligence specialists in Iraq. They assist Iraqs military in their drive to oust ISIS from remaining strongholds after Mosul was liberated. Mattis thinks more troops may be needed to stabilize Iraqs security and reduce the chances that Tehran will prevail in its quest to gain control.

Is the Trump administration preparing for military action against Iran? If diplomacy does not soon deter Tehran, armed conflict should not be ruled out.

Nuechterlein, a political scientist and author, lives near Charlottesville. He writes an occasional column, focusing on foreign policy and politics, for The News & Advance.

Read more here:
The Next Foreign Crisis? Iran - Lynchburg News and Advance

BEIRUT The lawyer of a Lebanese man held in Iran since 2015 says his client has ended a 33-day hunger strike.

Majed Dimashkiyeh sent The Associated Press a letter from Nizar Zakka announcing an end to his hunger strike following a request from his children.

Zakka, who has permanent US residency, went missing in 2015, during his fifth trip to Iran. Two weeks later, Iranian state TV reported that he was in custody and suspected of having deep links to US intelligence services.

Last September, Zakka was sentenced to 10 years in prison and handed a $4.2 million fine after a security court convicted him of espionage.

Members of the US House of Representatives issued a resolution this week calling for Zakkas release.

Zakka, 50, was rushed to a hospital earlier this month, where he refused an IV, his brother Ziad told The Associated Press. He said his brother was prepared to die if he is not released, and refused to sign documents in Farsi, a language he doesnt understand.

Ziad Zakka, left, brother of Nizar Zakka who is imprisoned in Iran, speaks with his brothers lawyer Majed Dimshkiyeh in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, July 18, 2017. (AP/Bilal Hussein)

Zakkas family denies the allegations against him. His brother said he had been invited to attend a conference at which President Hassan Rouhani spoke of sustainable development and providing more economic opportunities for women.

He showed the AP a letter of invitation for his brother from Iranian Vice President Shahindokht Molaverdi.

He is completely losing hope in life, and this is the most difficult period a human being might reach, Zakka said in an interview in Beirut earlier this month, adding that he had urged his brother to end the hunger strike when he spoke to him by phone.

The family has urged Lebanese President Michel Aoun to raise Zakkas case when he visits Iran in August. Aoun is a close ally of Hezbollah, a powerful Iranian-backed Lebanese group.

We hope that President Aoun will reach a happy ending in this matter, said Majed Dimashkiyeh, a lawyer for the family who has sent an official letter to Aoun asking him to intervene with Iranian authorities.

Zakka, who used to live in Washington, leads the Arab ICT Organization, or IJMA3, an industry consortium from 13 countries that advocates for information technology in the region.

The Associated Press reported in May last year that IJMA3 had received at least $730,000 in contracts and grants since 2009 from both the State Department and the US Agency for International Development, USAID.

Ziad Zakka said their mother passed away last July. He said she had sent a letter to Irans Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Rouhani through the Iranian Embassy in Beirut, telling them that my dream is to see Nizar.

Read the rest here:
Lebanese 'spy' held in Iran ends hunger strike - The Times of Israel

MOSUL, Iraq (Reuters) - Thousands of children have been separated from their parents in the nine-month battle for Mosul and the preceding years of Islamic State rule in northern Iraq - some found wandering alone and afraid among the rubble, others joining the refugee exodus from the pulverized city.

In some cases their parents have been killed. Families have been split up as they fled street fighting, air strikes or Islamic State repression. Many are traumatized from the horrors they have endured.

Protecting the youngsters and reuniting them with their families is an urgent task for humanitarian organizations.

"These children are extremely vulnerable," said Mariyampillai Mariyaselvam, a child protection specialist with UNICEF (the United Nations Children's Fund). "Most have gone through a very painful history."

Nine-year-old Meriam had left her family one day last October to visit her grandmother in west Mosul, then under Islamic State rule. The government offensive to recapture the city began, so she stayedthere.

Her father Hassan told Reuters he had been a policeman but quit when the radical Islamists seized Mosul in 2014, fearing he would be targeted. He, his second wife, along with Meriam and her three half-siblings moved from dwelling to dwelling.

"We were living in many different places, moving around. Meriam stayed with her grandmother but when the bridges were shut down, I could not cross the river to see her," he said, speaking in the abandoned, half-built house in east Mosul where the family is now squatting.

They eventually fled to the Hassan Sham displaced persons camp but Meriam was trapped in the west.

After government forces retook the neighborhood in June, she and her grandmother made it to the Khazer camp. Her father asked UNICEF for help and they managed to track down his daughter. They were reunited in Hassan Sham later that month.

"I was hearing bombing and killing every day. I did not believe they would find her," he said.

Life is still hard for the family. They left the camp to return to the city with their few possessions, but the house owner wants to evict them. Hassan makes ends meet by finding day jobs. But at least they are together, he said, cuddling his daughter as he spoke.

Meriam, a bright-eyed girl with a shy smile, said she would like to go to school.

"I have never been to school. I would like to have books, a backpack, and to learn letters. That is my dream," she said.

UNICEF says children in shock had been found in debris or hidden in tunnels in Mosul. Some had lost their families while fleeing to safety but sometimes parents had been forced to abandon children or give them away. Many children were forced to fight or carry out violent acts, it said in a statement. They were also vulnerable to sexual exploitation.

UNICEF's Mariyaselvam, speaking to Reuters in Erbil, said the number of children coming out of Mosul had increased in the past few months as the battle reached its climax.

He explained the distinction between separated children, who are split from their legal guardians but are with friends or relatives, and unaccompanied children, who are alone and without care or guardians.

It was difficult to give an accurate number but child protection agencies have recorded more than 3,000 separated and over 800 unaccompanied children, he said. The latter are the priority.

The task of rescuing and identifying them begins in the field, with relief agency teams placed in strategic locations where people are fleeing. Registration points are set up. Mobile child protection teams also visit households. Then UNICEF and its local partners begin tracing the legal guardians or relatives.

"Our primary focus is care and protection for them. We try to make sure that they are provided immediate care," he said.

In camps, they are usually placed with people on a temporary basis. If parents or other relatives cannot be identified, a legal process begins to put them in care homes with government permission. If all efforts fail, there is a foster program.

From the start, the children need specialized services such as psychological counseling. Some need mental health care. But the Iraqi government lacks sufficient resources or infrastructure to handle the challenge, Mariyaselvam said.

Mosul, which served as the capital of Islamic State's self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria for three years, provided a particular set of problems. UNICEF and the government followed cases to ensure children weresafe from abuse and exploitation once they were back in the community.

"The situation we are seeing is that some children are not being accepted by the community because of their affiliation," he said, referring to the children of Islamic State fighters and supporters.

Some youngsters were roaming the city streets and some were being used as child labor, he said. Families who had lost their homes or fled could sometimes simply not cope.

"It is going to require a lot of time and a lot of resources and specialized services for them to rebuild their lives, including sending them back to school," Mariyaselvam said.

And with the war still going on as Islamic State retreats and a government offensive to recapture the IS-held town of Tal Afar expected soon, a new wave of lost children is anticipated.

Reporting by Angus MacSwan; Editing by Dale Hudson

Read this article:
Lost children are legacy of battle for Iraq's Mosul - Reuters