The defeat of Tom Perriello, who ran as a populist with the backing of Bernie Sanders in Tuesdays gubernatorial primary in Virginia, marked a loss for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
But the results had more to do with timing and the strength of the states party apparatus than ideology, analysts say.
Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, who handily beat Perriello for the Democratic nomination by 12 points, had the backing of nearly every Virginia Democrat elected to state and federal office - the result of years of cultivation. And he outspent Perriello by $1.4 million on advertising, allowing a heavy television presence - especially in the costly metropolitan Washington market - in the last weeks before the election.
Perriello, a former one-term congressman, jumped into the race in January and hoped to overcome Northams structural advantage by riding a wave of anti-Trump and national progressive energy, bolstered by endorsements from Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D).
[To shake up Democratic Party, progressives turn to Virginia primary]
But it was too little, too late.
The lesson here was you cannot get in a race very late and underfunded against a candidate who has been raising money and organizing for a long time and who has every meaningful endorsement from the Democratic Party, said Jennifer Duffy, who monitors gubernatorial contests for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. I dont think this has anything to do with progressivism.
Perriello was unable to raise millions in small donor donations, even with the help of national progressive groups that sent fundraising pitches to millions. He relied on a few wealthy donors to write six-figure checks, and loaned himself $150,000 in the campaigns final days.
Meanwhile, Northam was airing ads touting his endorsements from unions, abortion rights groups and other progressive organizations, showcasing his background as a doctor and a veteran and referring to Trump as a narcissistic maniac.
[Why this Democratic doctor calls Trump a narcissistic maniac]
Perriellos internal polling showed him plunging 12 points in the last week of the campaign, mostly in vote-rich northern Virginia, after Northam won the endorsement of the Washington Post editorial board and outspent Perriello on advertising 2-1, according to Ian Sams, Perriellos spokesman.
In what became a high-turnout, low-information election, the spending disparity made a real difference in giving voters just enough information about Ralph to help him win, Sams said. It was a competitive advantage we couldnt overcome.
Democratic primary voters also seemed disinclined to rebel against the party establishment. Outgoing Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner are all beloved by Virginia Democrats. And they all backed Northam.
The real story, at least on the Democratic side...is people are generally happy with their leadership, said David Turner, Northams spokesman.
Perriellos campaign found it an enormous challenge.
Its hard to break through against an entire unified state Democratic Party operation, and we knew that from the beginning, said Sams.
In the primary, Perriello did exceptionally well with rural voters, sweeping the southern and western parts of the state, while Northam claimed the more populated urban crescent of northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads. He also did well in jurisdictions that are predominantly African American - a key constituency in the Democratic party.
Throughout his campaign, Perriello argued Virginia Democrats need to retool their approach to win more rural, young and minority voters after squeaker races for governor in 2013 and U.S. Senate in 2014.
But that message was undercut by the partys winning streak. Democrats hold all five statewide offices and triumphed in the last three presidential contests - Virginia was the only Southern state to back Hillary Clinton last fall.
Perriellos embrace of the progressive agenda - increased taxes on the wealthy to fund free community college, universal pre-kindergarten and paid family leave - made him a darling of the movement, as well as a favorite among some mainstream national Democrats. He slammed the corporate influence in politics and refused to accept donations from Dominion Energy, the states largest political donor and a contributor to Northam.
Northam embraced programs he believed can win support from Republicans, such as state funding for technical apprenticeship programs. A pediatric neurologist who championed reproductive rights and gun control, Northam could not be easily cast as an establishment villian.
Because Northam and Perriello shared similar views on policy, voters were left with a nuanced choice between styles: pragmatic or aspirational.
They were both what I would call mainstream progressives, one may have been more progressive on economic issues, one may have been progressive on guns and choice, said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic operative with roots in Virginia.
Perriellos defeat seemed to call into question the power of the Democratic Partys progessive wing, which has been trying to push candidates leftward as the party navigates the Trump era.
[Democrats unitied, GOP appears in disarray after Va. primary]
Progressive have lost other high-profile races this year, including special Congressional elections in Kansas and Montana and in the races to chair the Democratic National Committee and California Democratic Party.
Their bark may be worse than their bite, said Geoffrey Skelley, an analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. They have a lot more work to do if they want the reality of their influence to match what they think their influence is.
Progressive activists say they left a mark even though Northam won.
There would have been an unquestioned victory for progressives had (Perriello) won, said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which is aligned with Warren and backed Perriello. But big picture, unlike several years ago, its now very hard to find a Democratic primary where there is not competition to claim the mantle of progressivism and one-up each other on strong positions like $15 minimum wage. And thats what we saw in Virginia.
Perriello supporters seem to be coalescing around Northam, although some environmentalists are withholding support unless he denounces two gas pipeline projects, as Perriello had.
Entering the general election against Republican Ed Gillespie, Northam is Virginias first Democratic gubernatorial nominee to support the $15 minimum wage, some form of free higher education, drivers licenses for immigrants living in Virginia illegally, among other priorities.
The GOP is already attacking Northam as too extreme. A $5 million PAC funded by the Republican Governors Association started spending on digital ads the day after the election, setting up a website called tooliberalralph.com.
Northams spokesman disputed that Perriello nudged the lieutenant governor to the left.
He has always advocated for an increase in the minimum wage, and hes always advocated for working families, said Turner. What voters wanted...is someone who had a proven record of getting stuff done in Richmond.
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Was defeat of Sanders-backed candidate in Va. a loss for progressives? Not quite - Washington Post