Archive for April, 2017

New focus on the Iran threat – Charleston Post Courier

As President Donald Trumps foreign policies take shape, his approach to Iran marks the most pronounced difference from his predecessor.

In contrast to the repeated efforts made by President Barack Obama to reach out to Iran, culminating in the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Wednesday delivered a laundry list of Irans alarming and ongoing provocations that export terror and violence, destabilizing more than one country at a time in the Middle East. Its illegal pursuit of missile technology and deferred nuclear ambitions are evidence, he said, that Iran threatens the United States, the region and the world.

While the State Department on Tuesday said Iran is complying with the JCPOA, Secretary Tillerson said Wednesday that the agreement did little more than postpone the day when Iran acquires nuclear weapons. Indicating that the Obama strategy of kicking that can down the road was unacceptable, Mr. Tillerson declared, The Trump administration has no intention of passing the buck to a future administration on Iran.

It is about time for some frank acknowledgement of these facts, many of which were sidestepped by the Obama administration out of concern that raising the issues might risk the nuclear agreement.

While it is too soon to predict how the new administration will comprehensively address these facts, President Trump has already sent Secretary Tillerson and Defense Secretary James Mattis to Saudi Arabia to discuss how the two countries will address the evolving Iranian threat.

On Thursday President Trump calling the JCPOA a terrible agreement, and said Iran is not living up to the spirit of the agreement, I can tell you that. And were analyzing it very, very carefully and well have something to say about it in the not-too-distant future.

On Wednesday in Riyadh, Mr. Mattis praised Saudi Arabia for its efforts to help stabilize the Middle East and supported the Saudi effort to end the threat from Houthi rebels in Yemen who fire Iranian-supplied missiles into Saudi Arabia. Everywhere you look, if theres trouble in the region, you find Iran The nations in the region and others elsewhere are trying to checkmate Iran and the amount of disruption, the amount of instability they can cause, he said.

From its inception in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been very clear about its foreign policy objectives, which include the destruction of Israel, the banishment of the U.S. from the Middle East, and advancing followers of the Shia sect of Islam to positions of power throughout the region. That policy that has brought it into direct conflict with Sunni-led regimes like Saudi Arabia and, if unopposed, could lead to Iran controlling all of Persian Gulf oil production, including the Saudi wells.

In the past dozen years Iran has escalated its efforts to transform the Middle East by protecting its investment in the Assad regime in Syria and its forward strategy against Israel, including support for the Lebanese Hezbollah militia and Hamas. It has expanded its influence in Iraq, challenged freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Aden, and opened a front against Saudi Arabia in Yemen. It is hard to find any parallel for such a broad, persistent aggressive campaign in world politics since the end of World War II.

While Irans pursuit of nuclear weapons is cause for alarm, it is clear that even without nuclear weapons Iran is already able to wreak havoc in many Middle Eastern nations and bring increasing military pressure on Israel. That is a threat that must be addressed, and it is welcome news that the Trump administration appears to be ready to do so.

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New focus on the Iran threat - Charleston Post Courier

Iran bars Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from running for president – Washington Post

When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad put hishat into Iran's presidential ring a couple of weeks ago, onlookers literally gasped.

The hard-liner had, of course, already run the countryfor eight years, as an isolationist with a talent for riling the West. His flawed reelection in 2009 sparked the GreenMovement, which brought thousands of protesters into the streets. In the ensuing government crackdown, hundreds of people were arrested. The government said at least 27 were killed, but rights groups put the death toll higher.

It was such a fraught time, and Ahmadinejad was so contentious, that the country's supreme leader urged him to stay out of politics. "I told him he should not participate in that matter," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said last year, according to his official website. Its "not in his interest and that of the country." (Other former presidents have received similar advice.The media is banned from using the name or image of Mohammad Khatami, a reformist who led the country between 1997 and 2005. Former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was barred from seeking another term in 2013. Irans first post-revolutionary president, Abol Hassan Bani-Sadr, lives in exile in France.)

When asked by reporters, Ahmadinejad brushed off the ayatollah's words as advice, not instruction. He has been campaigning around the country, and even joined Twitter.

[What Ahmadinejads run says about the state of Iranian politics]

Turns out, he was wrong.

This week, the country's Guardian Council announced thecandidates for president in the May 19 election. About 1,600 men and women had applied to run; the final list includes six names. As was widely expected, incumbent Hassan Rouhani will seek reelection. Other contenders include Ebrahim Raisi, a hard-line cleric who is close to Khamenei; Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a conservative former military officer; and Eshaq Jahangiri, a first vice president in Rouhani's government.

Ahmadinejad's name was nowhere to be seen.

On social media, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, an Ahmadinejad ally, tried to downplay the decision, writing that Ahmadinejad registered to run only out of national, religious and revolutionary duty. Referring to Ahmadinejad and his former vice president, who was also turned down,Javanfekr wrote:Thank god, the Guardian Council removed the duty from their shoulders."

Others didn't take it as well."Disqualifying candidates is illegal. If Ahmadinejad has committed a crime, why hasnt been put on trial all these years? tweeted Iranian user @sahartwitt. We are opposed to the disqualifications of the Guardian Council, its not right for the council to decide what the people are meant to decide."

That anger may be just what Ahmadinejad intended. Like supporters of populists around the world, his base is already suspicious of the political establishment. The supreme leader's decision riled Ahmadinejad's base and burnished his image as an opponent of the establishment.

[Trumps first 100 days: Trump aides turn up the heat on Iran]

Experts say the presidential election is likely to be a tight three-way contest between the conservatives Raisi and Ghalibaf, along with Rouhani. Raisi, in particular, is a prominent Shiite cleric who is being touted as a possible successor to the supreme leader. (Jahangiri has already said that he will drop out of the race eventually that he is only running to defendRouhani's accomplishments when he appears in television commercials and in debates.)

Raisi and Ghalibaf belong to the same conservative coalition. If they both stay in the race, they may split the conservative vote and assure Rouhani's victory, particularly if the incumbent's moderate-reformist coalition holds. That's a big if, of course, especially in Iran.

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Iran bars Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from running for president - Washington Post

Iran: Group claims regime is ‘in full gear’ on covert work on nuclear … – Fox News

The White House responded cautiously Friday to claims by an Iranian dissident group alleging that Irans clandestine work on a nuclear weapon has continued unabated by the landmark nuclear deal that Tehran finalized with the Obama administration and five other world powers two years ago.

At a news conference in Washington, members of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) brandished recent satellite imagery and intelligence purportedly derived from informants inside the Iranian military to bolster their claim that the Islamic Regime is still working covertly on what nuclear experts call weaponization: the final station on the path to nuclear weapons.

The engineering unit that is charged and tasked with actually building the bomb in a secret way for the Iranian regime is called the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, said Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of NCRIs Washington office. That unit, whose Persian acronym is SPND, was first exposed by Jafarzadehs group in 2011, and was designated by the State Department in 2014 because U.S. officials said SPND took over some of the activities related to Irans undeclared nuclear program.

Our information shows that their activities have been continuing in full gear, despite the JCPOA, Jafarzadeh said, using the acronym for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which is the formal name for the nuclear deal.

NCRIs startling claim came in the same week that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson certified to Congress that Iran is meeting the terms of the JCPOA but also announced an interagency task force to reevaluate the entire deal, saying the JCPOA is not meeting its objective. President Trump followed that up the next day by saying the Iranians are not living up to the spirit of the agreement.

That prompted a sharp tweet of rebuke from the Iranian foreign minister, an architect of the nuclear deal. Dr. Javad Zarif posted: Well see if US prepared to live up to letter of #JCPOA let alone spirit. So far, it has defied both.

Asked about NCRIs allegation and supporting evidence, Michael Anton, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said only that his colleagues are carefully evaluating the NCRI package against the best intelligence reporting and analysis available to the United States.

NCRIs satellite imagery is focused on the military base at Parchin, a site to which inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency have been granted only limited and tightly controlled access. The photos outline an area in the north of the sprawling base where installations surrounded by berms are visible. According to NCRI officers, the newly constructed site is known internally as Plan 6.

There, the dissident group alleged, a sub-unit of SPND known as METFAZ another Persian acronym for the formal title of the Center for Research and Expansion of Technologies on Explosions and Impact is working with high explosives in ways the NCRI said are identical to the possible military dimension that Western officials long suspected Iran was pursuing with its nuclear program.

Skeptics of NCRI note that it is the political affiliate of an Iranian opposition group, known as MEK, that spent fifteen years on the State Departments list of foreign terror organizations. But many have seen NCRIs disclosures about alleged clandestine nuclear activities or sites in Iran borne out, starting with the groups identification of the theretofore secret installations at Natanz and Arak. Frank Pabian, an adviser on nuclear nonproliferation issues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, was quoted in 2010 as telling the New York Times of the NCRI: Theyre right 90 percent of the time.

To assess the imagery of Plan 6 at Parchin, Fox News consulted a pair of nuclear scientists and arms control analysts who are among the worlds most renowned. David Albright, the trained physicist and former U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq, told Fox News the structures visible in the satellite photography are consistent with a facility that makes high explosives; but he noted that Iran has the right to do so under the JCPOA, and that the imagery yielded no outward sign that Iran was also testing high explosives at the site. Still, he believes the IAEA should press for access there. The international inspectors should use authorities under the nuclear deal to go and look at this site, and see what's going on and start to verify a critical part of the nuclear deal, Albright said, namely, those activities involved in the development of nuclear weapons.

Olli Heinonen spent nearly three decades at the IAEA, eventually rising to the level of the number-two official at the agency: deputy director-general. He has traveled to Iran for inspection tours and other business some twenty-five times. He reached a similar assessment about Plan 6, even as both men emphasized the need for more information to make determinative judgments.

We see that the buildings are surrounded by berms; they are a distance from each other. This is a typical design for a site that works with high explosives, Heinonen told FoxNews. I think there are serious questions to be asked [of] the Iranian government. Most likely IAEA should have access to this site.

Neither the IAEA nor the Iranian mission to the United Nations responded to requests for comment.

James Rosen joined Fox News Channel (FNC) in 1999. He currently serves as the chief Washington correspondent and hosts the online show "The Foxhole." His latest book is "A Torch Kept Lit: Great Lives of the Twentieth Century" (Crown Forum, October 4, 2016).

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Iran: Group claims regime is 'in full gear' on covert work on nuclear ... - Fox News

Iran foiled 30 bombing plots last year: Intelligence min. – Press TV

Irans Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi has stressed the efficacy of Iranian counter-terrorism work, announcing that Iranian intelligence forces foiled a total of 30 bombing plots in the country last year.

Speaking on Friday, Minister Alavi compared and contrasted the state of security in Iran with that in most other countries.

Whereas people in most countries in the world, especially countries in this region, face a crisis of bombings, assassinations, and insecurity, the nation in the Islamic Republic enjoys lasting security, he said.

Thanks to the alertness of Iranian intelligence forces, there is no such [security] challenge as assassination, explosion, and bombing in the country, Alavi said.

The Iranian intelligence minister said that over the previous year, 30 bombing plots had been learnt about and thwarted in the country. He said only four cases were publicized at the time, however.

Last June, the Intelligence Ministry said it had thwarted a large-scale plot to stage attacks in Irans major cities, including the capital, Tehran.

It also released video footage detailing intelligence operations to track and arrest would-be-attackers in the capital.

In his Friday remarks, Alavi said the Iranian people do not fear death, which he said actsas a powerful deterrent against any form of aggression against the country.

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Iran foiled 30 bombing plots last year: Intelligence min. - Press TV

A look at Iran’s presidential candidates – Fox News

TEHRAN, Iran Iran has announced the final list of candidates for next month's presidential race, which will largely serve as a referendum on the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

President Hassan Rouhani is widely seen as the front-runner, but could face tough competition from hard-line cleric Ebrahim Raisi, who is close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and popular among hard-liners. Former hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sought to run but was disqualified.

The following candidates were approved by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for Iran's elections. Half of its 12 members are clerics appointed by Khamenei, who also makes all final decisions on major policies.

HASSAN ROUHANI

Rouhani, 68, is a moderate elected in 2013 on pledges of greater personal freedoms and improved relations with the West. His government negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal, which saw Iran accept curbs on its nuclear program in exchange for relief from crippling international sanctions.

Since the deal went into effect, Iran has doubled its oil exports and inked multi-billion-dollar aircraft deals with Boeing and Airbus. But critics of the deal say the economic benefits have yet to filter down to ordinary Iranians, creating an opening for Rouhani's hard-line rivals.

Early in his tenure, in 2013, he shared a phone call with then-President Barack Obama, the highest-level exchange between the two countries since Iran's 1979 revolution and the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis.

Rouhani has faced pushback from conservatives and hard-liners, who criticized the nuclear deal as giving too much away and who have blocked many of his Cabinet picks.

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EBRAHIM RAISI

Raisi, 56, is a hard-line cleric close to Khamenei who has vowed to combat poverty and corruption. He could pose the biggest challenge to Rouhani, especially if he can unify hard-liners.

Last year, Khamenei appointed Raisi as head of the Imam Reza charity foundation, which manages a vast conglomerate of businesses and endowments in Iran. Khamenei called Raisi a "trustworthy and highly experienced" person, causing many to wonder if he might also be a possible successor to the supreme leader himself.

Raisi, who is currently a law professor, previously served as attorney general and deputy judiciary chief. He is a member of the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body that will decide Khamenei's successor, and a prosecutor at a special court that tries clerics.

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ESHAQ JAHANGIRI

Jahangiri, 60, is a first vice president in Rouhani's government and a fellow moderate.

He was the minister of industries and mines from 1997 to 2005, under reformist President Mohammad Khatami, and before that served as governor of Isfahan Province.

He was close to the late and influential President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force. Soleimani has played a key role in Iran's efforts to bolster President Bashar Assad's forces in Syria and help neighboring Iraq combat the Islamic State group.

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MOSTAFA HASHEMITABA

Hashemitaba, who served as minister of industry in the 1980s, is a pro-reform figure who previously ran for president in 2001.

Both Jahangiri and Hashemitaba are expected to promote Rouhani. Their candidacies appear to be aimed at providing balance in the face of three hard-line and conservative candidates.

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MOHAMMAD BAGHER QALIBAF

Qalibaf, 55, the conservative mayor of Tehran, is running for president for the third time, having previously lost to Ahmadinejad in 2005 and Rouhani in 2013.

His candidacy could be marred by January's massive fire at the Plasco building, a historic high-rise in downtown Tehran. The fire caused the building to collapse and killed 26 people, including 16 firefighters.

Qalibaf was Iran's chief of police from 2000 to 2005 and commander of the Revolutionary Guard's air force from 1997 to 2000. He is also a pilot, certified to fly certain Airbus passenger planes.

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MOSTAFA MIRSALIM

Mirsalim, 69, was shot and wounded during the unrest leading up to the 1979 revolution. He went on to serve as deputy interior minister and police chief. He was the minister of culture for four years under Rafsanjani, a centrist who was president from 1989 to 1997.

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A look at Iran's presidential candidates - Fox News