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Can Mitt Romney connect for a win with Deep South voters? Does Rick Santorum get his clear shot at Romney, with Newt Gingrich falling by the wayside littered with other aspirant conservative alternatives?

The preliminary results rolling in tonight hint that the answer to the first question is "maybe, but far from certain" and that the answer to the second is "maybe." With final results perhaps hours away, incomplete results showed Santorum with small leads over Gingrich in both Alabama and Mississippi. If that dynamic holds, Romney will still have gone without a Deep South win either of his presidential campaigns. If he loses, Gingrich's viability will have been meted perhaps fatal blows, particularly in the eyes of the political press corps and the Republican establishment. And Santorum will have final claim on the anybody-but-Mitt vote.

Gingrich has thumped his chest about going forward regardless of tonight's results, but an inability to win outside the South Carolina-Georgia two state region would starkly lessen his relevance in the race. And that would be a gift for Santorum, visibly agitating for the one-on-one with Romney.

Jim O'Sullivan @JOSullivanNatJo

Alabama primary, 50 delegates; Hawaii caucuses, 20 delegates; Mississippi primary, 40 delegates; American Samoa caucuses, 9 delegates

DEEP SOUTH PRIMARIES

Santorum Wins Alabama Primary NEW! [National Journal, 3/13/12] NBC News is predicting a win for Santorum in Alabama, giving him an argument for staying in the race and support for critics of Newt Gingrich who say the former House speaker should drop out.

Romney's Performance in Mississippi, Alabama Due to Rivals Who Split the Vote NEW! [National Journal, 3/13/12] Exit polls show that in Mississippi, Romney wasn't able to make ground with his toughest demographics white evangelical voters, voters without a college degree, and lower-income voters but his opponents split those votes, effectively giving him a win or a tie with those voters. In Alabama, however, Romney's behind Gingrich and Santorum among these tough groups. The Washington Post has an exit poll interactive worth clicking on if you'd like to follow along at home.

Presidential Campaign Trail Goes Through Mississippi, Alabama [National Journal, 3/13/12] Rarely do the small, Southern states of Alabama and Mississippi get much attention, let alone a full-throated pander, from a presidential candidate. But this year, three states likely to be overlooked in the general campaign Mississippi, Alabama and Hawaii will get their moment in the national spotlight.

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Waiting for the Word from Dixie