Where is the Russia-Ukraine war heading? Five scenarios – Al Jazeera English
Russias war on Ukraine has entered a fourth week, as increasingly harsh rhetoric from Western powers towards Russian President Vladimir Putin fails to stop attacks in several cities.
It is near impossible to verify how many civilians have been killed so far. According to the United Nations, more than 600 have died but the real figure is feared to be higher.
Reports say thousands of soldiers on both sides have also died.
Meanwhile, Russia-Ukraine talks aiming for a peaceful solution continue as reports grow of Russias military becoming bogged down.
How might the situation develop from here? Here are five scenarios:
Ukrainian forces are still resisting Russias invasion, inflicting serious equipment and human losses.
Crucially, they repelled an attempt by paratroopers to seize the capital Kyiv in the opening days of the conflict and have since withdrawn to defensive positions that have enabled them to keep control over all strategic cities.
Although Russia has long claimed it has air superiority, Ukraines air defences appear to be still working, while Western countries are pouring in portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.
The Russian invasion has largely stalled on all fronts, an update from the UK defence ministry said on Thursday.
But in an interview with Al Jazeera, Frank Ledwidge, senior lecturer in military capabilities and strategy at the University of Portsmouth, said Whats happened here is that the Russian attack has, in military terms, culminated.
Theyve gone as far as they can with the logistics and weaponry they brought into the country that doesnt necessarily mean its stalled, he said.
What were seeing now is whats called an operational pause as they start to get, in colloquial terms, their act together, which they have not had largely due to very poor planning assumptions in the early part of the campaign.
So theyd be working frantically to try to get weapons and get their planning sorted out and to understand where does it go next. And of course, Ukrainians have a say in that, which is why we are starting to see counterattacks by Ukrainian armed forces that seem to be having some effect.
United States intelligence estimates that 7,000 Russian troops have died, The New York Times reported although experts say that all such claims should be treated with caution.
US President Joe Biden announced a massive new package of military aid for Ukraine on Wednesday, including 100 Switchblade kamikaze drones and thousands more missiles.
Ukrainian military resistance comes at a high civilian cost, however, with thousands dead and towns devastated such as Mariupol and Kherson.
Negotiators from both sides began talking just days after the war started, first on the Belarus-Ukraine border, then in Turkey and later in Kyiv.
Mounting battlefield losses and crippling Western sanctions on the Russian economy could be pushing Putin to seek a face-saving way to end the conflict.
Ukraine may be able to compel the Russians to make a choice: to persist and suffer irreparable losses, or desist and achieve some compensatory peace, AFP news agency quoted Rob Johnson, a warfare expert at the University of Oxford, as writing this week.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday that the two sides were close to agreeing on a deal that would see Ukraine accept neutrality modelled on the status of Sweden and Austria.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already publicly acknowledged that his country will not join the Western NATO military alliance a key demand from the Kremlin.
But though the chances of a deal have grown significantly in recent days, there is no sign of a ceasefire and Ukraine wants a full Russian withdrawal and security guarantees about its future.
Some Putin critics suspect that the diplomacy is a smokescreen.
Reminder that to Putin ceasefire just means reload, dissident Russian politician and former chess champion Garry Kasparov wrote on Twitter.
Putin is tightening his grip over Russian society. A crackdown on independent media and foreign news providers has cemented the dominance of the ultra-loyal Russian state media.
Thousands of anti-war demonstrators have been arrested, while a new law threatens up to 15 years in jail for spreading fake news about the army.
There are signs of cracks in the ruling elite, with some oligarchs, MPs, and even private oil group Lukoil calling openly for a ceasefire or an end to the fighting.
A Russian editor held up a sign saying No War during a prime-time news broadcast on state TV this week.
Though not seen as likely at this stage, the possibility of Putin being brought down in a popular backlash or even a palace coup cannot be ruled out.
His personal security is very good and it will be very good until the moment it isnt, said Eliot A Cohen from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank.
Thats happened numerous times in Soviet and Russian history.
Given Russias superior weapons, air power and indiscriminate use of artillery, Western defence analysts say its forces are capable of grinding forward.
A senior European military official cautioned on Wednesday against underestimating their ability to replenish and adapt their tactics.
They appear to have logistical and morale problems, with diesel and even engine lubricants in short supply, the official said.
But you need to keep it in perspective. All of that does not change the superiority of the Russian military, he said.
Moscow is openly recruiting mercenaries from Syria to supplement its forces, while also using the Wagner Group, a shadowy Russian private security company.
But even if they captured strategic cities such as Kyiv or the southern port of Odesa, Putin would then face the challenge of occupying them.
Russia has a border with three former Soviet states that are now members of the US-led NATO military alliance, which considers an attack on one member to be an attack against all.
Putins nostalgia for the Soviet Union and his pledge to protect Russian minorities who are found in the Baltic States has left an open question about his territorial ambitions.
Few expect Putin to openly attack a NATO member, which would run the risk of a nuclear attack, but analysts have warned about provocations that stop short of sparking a war.
Putin has ordered Russias nuclear deterrent forces onto high alert and Foreign Minister Lavrov has also warned that World War III can only be a nuclear war.
Western analysts say such warnings should be taken as posturing to deter the US and Europe from considering ideas such as a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
See the original post here:
Where is the Russia-Ukraine war heading? Five scenarios - Al Jazeera English
- North Korea pledges to 'unconditionally support' Russia's war in Ukraine - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Senators tout Russia sanctions bill as sledgehammer for Trump to end war in Ukraine - CNN - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump says US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine: 'They desperately need' them - USA Today - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- What if Ukraine falls? This is no longer a hypothetical question and it must be answered urgently | Simon Tisdall - The Guardian - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Ukraine must get ready for future in which there is no ceasefire with Russia - The Guardian - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Russia, China discuss Ukraine war and ties with the United States - Reuters - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Report: Trump to announce aggressive plan to arm Ukraine with offensive weapons - The Times of Israel - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Sen. Lindsey Graham says sanctions bill would give Trump a "sledgehammer" against Russia amid "turning point" in war with Ukraine... - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- North Korea's Kim, hosting Lavrov, says he will support Russia to resolve Ukraine war - Reuters - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Ukraine's security agency says it killed Russian agents suspected of gunning down its officer - Yahoo - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- U.S. and Russia have exchanged new ideas for Ukraine peace talks, Rubio says - PBS - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump very disappointed in Putin as he vows to send Ukraine Patriot missiles ahead of meeting with NATO boss - The Independent - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump says US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine, EU will pay for them - The Times of Israel - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Archbishop Gudziak: Walking the Way of the Cross with Ukraine - Vatican News - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump says US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine - The Kyiv Independent - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump announces US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine, says Putin talks nice but then he bombs everybody in the evening - New York Post - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- A Landscape of Death: Whats Left Where Ukraine Invaded Russia - The New York Times - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump to send weapons to Kyiv after Putins forces kill two in drone attack - The Independent - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Russia attacks west Ukraine with drones and missiles, kills two - Reuters - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump said he'd end Ukraine war in 24 hours. Now his patience with Putin is wearing thin. - USA Today - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- US is selling weapons to NATO allies to give to Ukraine, Trump says - AP News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Russia Intensifies Its Air War in Ukraine - NPR - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump expected to deliver weapons to Ukraine through Nato allies - The Guardian - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- 2 dead as Russia attacks Ukraine overnight with almost 600 drones, Kyiv says - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Senate Backs Ukraine Aid In Draft Military Spending Bill Ahead Of Trump's Statement On Russia - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump Says NATO Countries Will Buy Weapons to Give to Ukraine - The New York Times - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Senators want safeguards on Hegseth meddling with Ukraine aid in new defense bill - USA Today - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- How do Russians think the war in Ukraine will end? - BBC - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Russia-Ukraine war: What are frustrated Trumps next options with Putin? - Al Jazeera - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Rubio slams Russia over 'lack of progress' toward peace in Ukraine - Politico - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- U.S. weapons flowing again to Ukraine, but not fast enough to stop Russia's drone and missile strikes - CBS News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Putins war in Ukraine may cost him control of the south Caucasus - The Economist - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump says he struck deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO - CNN - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Putin Escalates His War Against Ukraine, Undeterred by Trumps Words - The New York Times - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- 'Russia's tactic is obvious' Shahed drone 'terror' now reaches all of Ukraine - The Kyiv Independent - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Conference commits over 10 bln euros to Ukraine rebuilding, Italy says - Reuters - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Russian drone and cruise missile attacks kill at least 2 in Ukraine - AP News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Rubio says US and Russia have exchanged new ideas for Ukraine peace talks - AP News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Leonardo may offer drone tech but has no plans for plant in Ukraine, CEO tells paper - Reuters - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump resumes weapons deliveries to Ukraine - politico.eu - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Russia batters Ukraine with more than 700 drones, the largest barrage of the war, officials say - AP News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Unhappy with Putin, Trump and Congress move closer to Ukraine - The Washington Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trump unloads on Putin after promising more military aid to Ukraine - NBC News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Chinese father and son detained in Ukraine, accused of trying to smuggle out info on guided missile system - CBS News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Ukraine's Zelenskiy to hold more meetings with US officials in Rome - Reuters - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Largest Russian Long-Range Drone Onslaught Of The War Rains Down On Ukraine - The War Zone - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Italy opens Ukraine rebuilding conference as doubts of US defense help remain - AP News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Russia launches largest drone attack on Ukraine as Kyiv pushes US for air defense aid - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trump Asked About Not Knowing Who Paused Ukraine Weapons: 'I Would Know' - Newsweek - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 'Trump should fire him': Jeffries reacts to Hegseth reportedly pausing Ukraine weapons - CNN - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trump says U.S. will resume sending weapons to Ukraine after pausing last week - NPR - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back - War on the Rocks - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trumps sudden shift on weapons for Ukraine takes the war back to square one - CNN - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trumps Frustration With Putin Preceded Resumption of U.S. Weapons to Ukraine - The New York Times - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How I Changed My Mind About the War in Ukraine - learnliberty.org - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 2 killed, 16 injured as Kyiv slammed with drones, ballistic missiles in Russian mass attack against Ukraine for 2nd night in row - The Kyiv... - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Europe's top rights court finds Russia responsible for downing of MH17, rights abuses in Ukraine - Reuters - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Russian Minister Who Had Led Region Later Invaded by Ukraine Is Found Dead - The New York Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- In Sumy, Ukraine, the front line is drawing near but we refuse to leave - Al Jazeera - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Ukraine war briefing: US to resume shipments of weapons for Ukrainian defence - The Guardian - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump embarrasses the Pentagon with a U-turn on Ukraine - The Economist - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says U.S. will send more weapons to Ukraine - The Washington Post - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says US will send more weapons to Ukraine - Reuters - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump to Resume Sending Weapons to Ukraine - WSJ - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Opinion | The Case for Cutting Off Weapons to Ukraine - WSJ - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US to send more weapons to Ukraine, Trump says - Al Jazeera - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- 'We have to': Trump sending weapons to Ukraine after expressing disappointment with Putin - USA Today - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US backs Natos latest pledge of support for Ukraine, but in reality seems to have abandoned its European partners - The Conversation - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says US will send more weapons to Ukraine: They have to be able to defend themselves - New York Post - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Macrons U.K. State Visit: Migrants and the War in Ukraine Are on the Agenda - The New York Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- What Is Trump Trying to Do With Russia and Ukraine Now? - Slate - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says US will resume weapon shipments to Ukraine days after pause - The Independent - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US to resume delivery of 'defensive weapons' to Ukraine, says Trump - France 24 - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says he'll send Ukraine more weapons: "They have to be able to defend themselves" - Axios - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- The doctor fighting for women's health on Ukraine's front line - BBC - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US envoy Kellogg to attend Ukraine aid conference in Rome - Reuters - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Donald Trump says US will send Ukraine more arms - Financial Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Russia and Ukraine trade drone strikes as Kyiv signs deals to boost drone production - AP News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- As Ukraine awaits stalled US weapons, Trump says he's 'helping a lot' in war with Russia - The Kyiv Independent - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Opinion | Trump Is Disappointed With Putin on Ukraine - WSJ - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]