Ukraine: The pain is far from over

The timing of the elections, when elections could be held in December under the terms of the ceasefire, could be seen as "a further and direct challenge to the authority of Kyiv," Timothy Ash, head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank, wrote in a research note.

Poroshenko has called those elected "bandits who crown themselves" and will meet with his security chiefs Tuesday, sparking fears that the ceasefire could break. Reports of military convoys from Russia crossing the border into the region comprising Donetsk and Luhansk add to nervousness in Kiev.

"Unless Ukraine can militarily retake the regions controlled by rebels, the impact will be limited in terms of events on the ground," according to Ash.

And with military spending in Ukraine under pressure, as the rest of the economy continues in deep recession, that seems unlikely.

- By CNBC's Catherine Boyle.

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Ukraine: The pain is far from over

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