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Ukraine is now strong enough to seize the initiative to create a lasting cease-fire in its Donbas Rust Belt, currently occupied by Russia and its proxies. And Russia may be weak enough to be receptive. It is in Kiev's interest to do so. A state of permanent war with Russia would damage Ukraine's democracy, economy and security.

Almost imperceptibly, the tide seems to have turned in Ukraine's favor. The Ukrainian army has been able to withstand daily attacks by Russian troops. Ukraine's October parliamentary elections produced a pro-Western majority, and its technocratic government appears poised for radical reforms.

By contrast, the Russian economy is in deep trouble from plummeting oil prices and the bite of sanctions. Many Russians have died fighting in the Donbas enclave. And Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly isolated internationally.

Western pundits debate whether Russia's troubles make it more amenable to a political settlement in Ukraine or more aggressive. This question won't be resolved in argument. Russian intentions need to be put to the test.

Ukraine can devise such a test in a way that enables it to retain the political high ground while strengthening its security and prospects for economic reform. But first, Kiev must accept some uncomfortable realities.

Neither Crimea nor the two separatist pro-Russia republics in the Donbas area will return to Ukraine's fold anytime soon, if ever. Ukraine lacks the military and financial resources to retake them, and any move to do so would not get Western backing and could even erode American and European support for Ukraine.

Kiev should therefore act as if these breakaway eastern regions are no longer part of Ukraine. It's starting to do just that, as seen in its recent decision to end subsidies, pensions, veterans' benefits and postal and banking services to the Donbas statelets.

However, Kiev should not recognize these regions as belonging to Russia. That would be political suicide for a nascent government facing multiple challenges and it would be a needless gift to Moscow. Nor should Kiev say anything definitive about the territories' final status. Instead, Ukraine should keep its future options open while ceding responsibility for their economic upkeep to Russia.

Disengaging itself from Crimea and the Donbas enclave benefits Ukraine. These regions have been anti-reform, anti-Western, pro-Russia bastions since Ukraine's independence. Their detachment makes radical reform in Ukraine possible and deprives Russia of an important means for meddling in Ukrainian politics. So what looks like a loss is in fact a gain.

Moreover, industrial production in the Donbas enclave has fallen 80%, and coal mines, factories and infrastructure have been severely damaged. Kiev would be wise to let Russia bear the burden of repairing the region's economy.

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Ukraine should put Russia to the test