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Ukraine again missed a payment deadline late Monday on the natural gas it buys from Russia. Ukraine's debt to Russia over natural gas has led to supply cutoffs before, but there are other ways to resolve a long-standing dispute.

Another past-due gas bill is ratcheting up tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

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Ukraine missed a deadline late Monday to make its monthly natural gas payment to Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas company, which Kiev already owes a reported$2.2 billion for fuel for heating and electricity. Monday's blown deadline further strains relations with its primary gas supplier, and echoes past gas disputes in which Russia shut off supplies to Ukraine.

That could happen again, analysts say, but there's hope that the two sides might come to a more peaceful solution to Ukraine's gas debts. Once Western financial aid starts flowing into Kiev's coffers, it can begin to pay off what it already owes Gazprom. As for future debts, it could challenge Gazprom's recent price hikes in an arbitration court a case analysts say Kiev could win.

Still, Europe isn't taking any chances with a supplier that has a history of closing the spigot over unpaid bills. European Union officialshave organized an emergency "gas coordination group," Reuters reported Tuesday, with Ukraine's energy minister and industry leaders. The aim is to determine how to supply Ukraine and others in Europe with gas by tapping storage or reversing pipelines in case Russia cuts off its supply.

The likelihood of that happening is 50/50, according to Dmytro Naumenko, an energy analyst at the Kiev-basedInstitute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.

"[A gas cutoff] may be used by Russia to escalate the political conflict with Ukraine," Mr. Naumenko writes via e-mail. "But in spring-summer season it's not a very efficient tool of pressure and thus will have limited impact on Ukraine."

A more likely outcome is that the two will negotiate a new price or will settle the dispute in an arbitration court. Ukraine's energy minister, Yuri Prodan, offered that possibility before a cabinet meeting Saturday.

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Ukraine misses gas payment. How will Putin respond?