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A Ukrainian Humvee mired in bezdorizhzhia mud before the current war.

Every fall, Ukraine gets wetterand its not yet cold enough for the rain to freeze into ice. Every spring, as the winter ice melts, Ukraine again gets wetterand its not yet warm enough to dry out.

The result is two seasons of mud. Mud thats so deep and sticky that it renders thousands of miles of unpaved roadsto say nothing of forests and fieldsimpassable for vehicles. The Ukrainians call these muddy seasons bezdorizhzhia. That means roadlessness.

Bezdorizhzhia works against both armies in Russias wider war on Ukraine, but its a bigger problem for whichever army is trying to go on the attack while its muddy. Poor [cross-country mobility] typically provides some military advantage to defending forces, the U.K. defense ministry explained.

Right now, that means the mud favors Russian forces, which mostly have begun shifting to a defensive posture in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The spring bezdorizhzhia tends to be worse than the fall bezdorizhzhia is. Spring is the nightmare season for fighting in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted. And this year, amid warmer weather across Europe, the spring bezdorizhzhia has persisted through late April. Prolonging the nightmare.

That might help to explain why Ukraine hasnt yet launched the main efforts we might associate with a counteroffensive.

Yes, there have been Ukrainian raids across the Dnipro River into Russian-held territory left of that wide river in southern Ukraine. And yes, Ukrainian officials claim their forces are beginning to push back against Russian assaults in the ruins of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraines Donbas region.

But we havent yet observed a major Ukrainian armored assault anywhere along the 600-mile front that stretches from the mouth of the Dnipro in southern Russian east toward Zaporizhzhia then northward up through Donbas to the Russian border near Kharkiv. An assault that might begin with a complex and risky effort to breach Russian fortifications.

A Ukrainian BTS-4 recovery vehicle.

The mud is so bad that even the vehicles that are supposed to recover other vehicles that get stuck themselves are getting stuck. A video that circulated online on social media on Saturday depicts a Ukrainian BTS-4 armored recovery vehicle practically glued to a forest track somewhere in Ukraine.

A BTS-4 is an old T-54/55 tank chassis with a front-mounted dozer blade and a 12-ton hydraulic crane in place of its turret. The Ukrainian army began the current, wider war with around 20 BTS-4s, at least 10 of which went through an extensive overhaul at the Lviv vehicle plant back in 2021.

ARVs such as the BTS-4 are essential for armies that fight on the move in difficult conditions. They winch out and unstick stuck vehicles; tow away damaged and immobilized vehicles so they can get repaired; and even support engineers breaching enemy defenses.

Its not for no reason that the U.S. Army has 1,200 M-88 recovery vehicles to support 2,700 active M-1 tanks. Thats slightly more than two tanks per ARV.

The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, had only around three dozen BREM-1, BREM-2, BREM-M, BREM-64 and BTS-4 ARVs when Russia widened its war on Ukraine 14 months ago. Thats 36 or so ARVs for a pre-war tank force with nearly a thousand T-64s, T-72s and T-80s. One recovery vehicle for every 25 tanks.

Donations from foreign allies have helped to grow the Ukrainian ARV fleet, as has a local effort to rebuild captured Russian T-62 tanks into improvised recovery vehicles. Its possible the Ukrainians have around 50 more ARVs than they started the wider war with.

Thats still too few ARVs by American standards. Too little recovery capacity to unstick an army that, for now, is stuck in the mud of the twice-a-year bezdorizhzhia season.

Especially as the ARVs themselves also are getting stuck. Until the ground dries a bit more and vehicles can move without high risk of miringor at least are recoverableit seems unlikely Ukraine will launch a major armored assault.

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Ukraine Is Really Muddy Right Now. It's A Risky Time For A ... - Forbes