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Guest post written by Adrian Bonenberger

Mr. Bonenberger was an infantry officer in the U.S. Army from 2005-2012 and served twice in Afghanistan. He is now a freelance journalist.

For those following Russias invasion of Ukraine, an ongoing source of concern is where Russia will draw the line. Common wisdom says if Ukraine continues to resist, Russia will commit more forces and overrun Ukrainepossibly continuing its momentum into Estonia or Poland. As members of NATO, an attack on either of those two countries risks invoking Article V, NATOs common-defense clause, thus drawingEuropeand America into war with Russia, inexorably leading to World War III and nuclear exchange.

Well, theres another cause for concern.

Ukraine is much stronger than people give it credit for. Up until now, the Ukrainians have been fighting with one arm tied behind their backmuch of their combat power has deliberately been held in reserve, to risk provoking Russia into allocating more forces to the fight. The last time the Ukrainian military mounted a calculated offensive against the separatists, in August of last year, it experienced quick success. Russia had to move thousands of soldiers across the border to shore up separatist resolve, and assisted the separatists with artillery, tanks and anti-air assets (including the Russian AA battery that shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17). Since then, there has been a status quo of sortsnot to be confused with a cease-fire, as casualties by the dozens occur every day. The battle in East Ukraine has reached equilibrium.

A Ukrainian serviceman walks along destroyed houses in Shyrokyne, Donetsk region in late June. (ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Many in the West believe that Russia can decide to break this status quo at any timewith a quick push; it can blitz through Ukrainian lines and make its way to Kyiv and Odessaor beyond. Ukraine is incapable of standing up to the Russians, and their defensive capabilities are barely adequate to resist an invasion. Presumably, conventional wisdom is the same in Russia because its military has not made any serious, concerted effort to overwhelm Ukrainian positions. Up to this point it hasmade strong probes against Ukrainian lines, or maneuvered to surround National Guard positions, andthen negotiated surrender with Ukrainian authorities.

But Ukraine does have sophisticated defensive capabilities, which are increasing with every day. The Ukrainian populationespecially Kyiv and parts of the West and Southfeels more and more invested in the struggle as friends and relatives are killed or wounded on the front lines. And Ukrainian military formations are training hard.

On the ground in Ukraine

I spent a week in Yavoriv recently, watching my old unit, the 173rd, train two companies of Ukrainian National Guardsmen (NGU). Itwas very impressive: Ukrainian soldiers moving and communicating tactically at a level that matched or exceeded most conventional U.S. units. Fornearly seven years, I served as an infantry officer (over two of which I spent in Afghanistan) in combat; in my time training Afghan police and soldiers, I never saw a unit of Afghans that looked as professional as the Ukrainians.

Read more:
Ukraine Can Defeat The Separatists