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The buffer zone being carved out to bring peace to eastern Ukraine may also cement the conflicts front lines and preserve Russian President Vladimir Putins influence over the region for years to come.

More than 3,500 people have died in the 10-month crisis that sent the economy into a tailspin before a tenuous cease-fire this month. As the Ukrainian army prepares to pull back, a move pro-Russian rebels say they would match, its leaving behind parts of Ukraines industrial and coal-producing heartland known as Donbass -- a region thats home to more than 50 suppliers for Russias defense industry.

The new 30-kilometer (19-mile) wide demilitarized area risks creating a simmering conflict that gives Putin a lever over Ukraines future and threatens to slow the countrys integration with the European Union, according to Joerg Forbrig of the German Marshall Fund. The Russian leader has suggested Ukraine switch to a federal system that would give regions a veto over major state decisions, such as EU or NATO membership.

Indications are indeed that Donbass will be turned into a frozen conflict, Forbrig, a senior program officer for central and eastern Europe in Berlin, said by e-mail. There is no chance that Kiev can re-establish its control of the area, the buffer zone effectively establishes a demarcation line.

Preserving the deadlock would follow a template Russia has used elsewhere in the former Soviet Union. The Kremlin has troops based in Moldovas separatist region of Transnistria and in Georgias breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. While both Moldova and Georgia have formal ties with the EU, neither is an official candidate for membership.

That state could last for months, years, or even decades in the absence of a definitive solution, Tatiana Orlova, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, said in an e-mailed report.

Signs of the conflict easing have helped Russian stocks and the currency to rebound even as sanctions still threaten to tip the economy in the recession. The ruble is the best performer in the past five days among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, having gained 0.8 percent against the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Ukrainian hryvnia, the worlds worst-performing currency this year with a 36 percent plunge against the dollar, has gained 2.3 percent in the past month.

Shaky as the cease-fire may be, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Sept. 21 praised it for de-escalating tensions and reached out to the rebels by blaming rogue groups for violations. His comments were echoed by a separatist leader the next day as both sides said they were preparing to pull back to establish a no-fire zone between them.

The two sides hashed out the cease-fire agreement in Minsk, Belarus and lawmakers in Kiev agreed to give special powers to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions for three years. The pact was amended last week to create a buffer zone and NATO said that it detected signs of Russia pulling back its forces. The government in Moscow has denied involvement.

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Ukraine Buffer to Cement Front Lines and Putin Influence